The relationship between energy consumption and train delay in railway traffic

Based on deterministic NaSch model, we propose a new cellular automation model for simulating train movement. In the proposed model, the reaction time of driver/train equipment is considered. Our study is focused on the additional energy consumption arising by train delay around a traffic bottle （station）. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model is suitable for simulating the train movement under high speed condition. Further, we discuss the relationship between the additional energy consumption and some factors which affect the formation of train delay, such as the maximum speed of trains and the station dwell time etc.

Short-term train arrival delay prediction:a data-driven approach

Purpose-To optimize train operations,dispatchers currently rely on experience for quick adjustments when delays occur.However,delay predictions often involve imprecise shifts based on known delay times.Real-time and accurate train delay predictions,facilitated by data-driven neural network models,can significantly reduce dispatcher stress and improve adjustment plans.Leveraging current train operation data,these models enable swift and precise predictions,addressing challenges posed by train delays in high-speed rail networks during unforeseen events.Design/methodology/approach-This paper proposes CBLA-net,a neural network architecture for predicting late arrival times.It combines CNN,Bi-LSTM,and attention mechanisms to extract features,handle time series data,and enhance information utilization.Trained on operational data from the Beijing-Tianjin line,it predicts the late arrival time of a target train at the next station using multidimensional input data from the target and preceding trains.Findings-This study evaluates our model’s predictive performance using two data approaches:one considering full data and another focusing only on late arrivals.Results show precise and rapid predictions.Training with full data achieves aMAEof approximately 0.54 minutes and a RMSEof 0.65 minutes,surpassing the model trained solely on delay data(MAE:is about 1.02 min,RMSE:is about 1.52 min).Despite superior overall performance with full data,the model excels at predicting delays exceeding 15 minutes when trained exclusively on late arrivals.For enhanced adaptability to real-world train operations,training with full data is recommended.Originality/value-This paper introduces a novel neural network model,CBLA-net,for predicting train delay times.It innovatively compares and analyzes the model’s performance using both full data and delay data formats.Additionally,the evaluation of the network’s predictive capabilities considers different scenarios,providing a comprehensive demonstration of the model’s predictive performance.

A simulation model for estimating train and passenger delays in large-scale rail transit networks

A simulation model was proposed to investigate the relationship between train delays and passenger delays and to predict the dynamic passenger distribution in a large-scale rail transit network. It was assumed that the time varying original-destination demand and passenger path choice probability were given. Passengers were assumed not to change their destinations and travel paths after delay occurs. CapaciW constraints of train and queue rules of alighting and boarding were taken into account. By using the time-driven simulation, the states of passengers, trains and other facilities in the network were updated every time step. The proposed methodology was also tested in a real network, for demonstration. The results reveal that short train delay does not necessarily result in passenger delays, while, on the contrary, some passengers may get benefits from the short delay. However, large initial train delay may result in not only knock-on train and passenger delays along the same line, but also the passenger delays across the entire rail transit network.

Train delay analysis and prediction based on big data fusion

Despite the fact that punctuality is an advantage of rail travel compared with other long-distance transport,train delays often occur.For this study,a three-month dataset of weather,train delay and train schedule records was collected and analysed in order to understand the patterns of train delays and to predict train delay time.We found that in severe weather train delays are determined mainly by the type of bad weather,while in ordinary weather the delays are determined mainly by the historical delay time and delay frequency of trains.Identifying the factors closely correlated with train delays,we developed a machine-learning model to predict the delay time of each train at each station.The prediction model is useful not only for passengers wishing to plan their journeys more reliably,but also for railway operators developing more efficient train schedules and more reasonable pricing plans.

Contributing Factors for Delays during the Morning Commute Hours and the Impact of the Spread of COVID-19 for Metropolitan Train Lines in Japan

The present study aims to conduct 2 types of statistical analysis to reveal the impact of the spread of COVID-19 on train delays by comparing the potential contributing factors before, during and after the outbreak of the virus in the metropolitan train lines in Japan. First of all, the result of the present study clearly revealed the changes in contributing factors for train delays caused by the spread of COVID-19. Specifically, the contributing factors for train delays changed due to the decrease of passengers by the effect of the outbreak of the virus. Additionally, though large terminal stations were considered to be a major contributing factor in causing and increasing train delays in the past, this was not the case after the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, under such conditions, it is more effective to make improvements in small to medium stations and tracks rather than terminal stations. Furthermore, as the decrease in passengers also decreased train delays in commuter lines going to the suburbs due to the spread of COVID-19, the contributing factor for such lines is the excessive number of passengers. Therefore, as for countermeasures for train delays after the effects of COVID-19, it is necessary to disperse passengers in order to avoid passengers concentrating in the same time zones and train lines.

Modeling and Simulation for Urban Rail Traffic Problem Based on Cellular Automata

Based on the Nagel-Schreckenberg model, we propose a new cellular automata model to simulate the urban rail traffic flow under moving block system and present a new minimum instantaneous distance formula under pure moving block. We also analyze the characteristics of the urban rail traffic flow under the influence of train density, station dwell times, the length of train, and the train velocity. Train delays can be decreased effectively through flexible departure intervals according to the preceding train type before its departure. The results demonstrate that a suitable adjustment of the current train velocity based on the following train velocity can greatly shorten the minimum departure intervals and then increase the capacity of rail transit.