Resource constraint,sustainable economic growth pattern and transformation of economic system in China

Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.

Human Resource Management Theory in the Context of Economic Development Transformation from the Perspective of the Social Productive Forces

This paper explores the development of the human resource management theory from the perspective of social productive forces,deeply analyzing the development of the current social productive forces and the characteristics of the socio-economic development.It can be concluded that the development of the human resource management theory is closely related to the socio-economic development pattern.The twenty first century is a knowledge-driven era,and"eco-friendly"and"low-carbon"are the basic characteristics of the socio-economic development of the era of the knowledge-driven economy,which has great influence on the subject,aim and content of human resource management.Green human resource management conforms to the trend of the transformation of the socio-economic development.Based on the management of"human",it creates an eco-friendly,low-carbon and sustainable environment for enterprises,which promotes the transformation from extensive growth to intensive growth of the macro management of enterprises.

Can Emerging Economies Catch-up Sustainably？-An Analysis of BRICS＇ Economic Growth Pattern

The BRICS （Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa） and other emerging economies have become a driving global force for the past twenty years. However, their growth patterns are obsolete, impeding the quality and competitiveness of their economic growth, while simultaneously threatening the sustainability of their economic convergence with developed nations. Transforming the domestic growth pattern-the solution to the middle-income trap-has therefore become a key priority for each of these economies. This paper presents a comparative analysis of how to transform the pattern of economic growth in BRICS and achieve sustainable economic convergence with a comparative analysis of the pattern of economic growth and problems among BRICS countries.

The Real Source of China's Economic Growth

In this paper,the authors have made the following findings after the fitting of China's economic growth rate series using an improved STR model:since 1949,great changes have taken place in China's economic growth pattern but factor input remains to be the major source of China's economic growth,as reflected by the extensive pattern of economic growth;with the exception of capital,the marginal output of all other production factors has been on the increase,which suggests that the efficiency of China's factor allocation has been continuously improved;the marginal output of capital has been on the decline,which explains that the dependency on investment for economic growth has led to excessive investment;reform and opening up and reform of marketization have substantially increased the sustainability of China's economic growth.In addition,the authors have investigated the internal momentum of China's growth transformation and developed relevant policy recommendations.

Basic conditions study to accelerate the realization of transformation of Shaanxi＇s economy growth mode

It is an urgent and important economic work in the moment and the next period for China to realize the transformation of economic growth mode. Relatively, there must be certain basic conditions. This article makes elaboration of the basic conditions, which accelerate the change of Shaanxi＇s economic growth mode from government angle, and proposes countermeasures for it, according to Shaanxi＇s situation and the requirement of scientific development concept, in order to provide basis for the government＇s economic growth transformation.

Economic reform, open-door policy and changes in spatial development patterns in China

The study profiles and explains the significant changes that have taken place in China's spatial development patterns since the inception of its economic reform and opening two decades ago. Principal component analysis is used to delineate spatial patterns. The analyses show that prior to the reform China's spatial development pattern was characterized by the dominance of the three municipalities and the Northeast, as well as by both the coast-interior and the north-south disparities. Northern provinces were generally more industrialized and economically powerful than the southern ones. After two decades of reform, regional development has become multi-centered with South China, the Yangtze Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin area being the three most important regions of the country. The coastal provinces as a whole rose to prominence on China's economic map while the Northeast has diminished its clout. The coast-interior gap not only remains but may have widened. The north-south disparity also still exists but there has been a role reversal with the south now in the lead position. Virtually all inland provinces now find themselves at or near the low end of the development spectrum. We argue that the major reason for the recent shifts in Chinese space economy is the spatially differentiated economic growth resulted from the reform and open door policy and from the new, uneven development strategy adopted by the Chinese government. The paper discusses four specific factors that have reshaped China's spatial development patterns.

Overcoming the contradiction between promoting economic growth and transforming the economic growth pattern

Promoting economic growth has become the first and foremost objective of macro-control since China experienced a drastic economic downturn in the fourth quarter of 2008. Now China is at a special stage of transition characterized by the transformation of the economic growth mode. While promoting economic growth, the government must effectively coordinate the relationship between economic growth and the transformation of growth mode. This is not a task that can be done easily. To promote economic growth, the central government has selected a number of industries and formulated an industrial revitalization plan for each of these them. Revitalizing these industries helps promote economic growth at the present stage but propelling these industries alone still cannot fully meet the requirements for transforming the economic growth pattern. To coordinate the relationship between promoting economic growth and transforming the economic growth pattern, it is currently imperative to adjust China’s industrial upgrading strategy and to pay attention to intra-industrial upgrading, particularly process upgrading.

Forecasting regional economic growth using support vector machine model

Support vector machine(SVM)is a new technology in data mining.It is a new tool to solve machine learning problems with the help of optimization.Support vector machines belong to a new machine learning that extends from statistical learning theory.Its structure is relatively simple,with good generalization ability and global optimality.Support vector machine has provided a unified framework for solving finite sample learning problems,and there are many solutions proposed.It can deal with those more complex problems and introduce the characteristics of the support vector machine model.Aiming at the application of the model in economic forecasting,a method to improve the prediction accuracy of the model is proposed.The theoretical analysis and practical application verification are performed,which shows that this method can obtain more accurate prediction results.

Overreliance on Net Export and Investment Impedes China's Structural Transformation: Estimation and Analysis Based on a Multi-Sector Growth Model

Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise the following three questions regarding China's structural transformation:(1) Why did the share of China's agricultural and manufacturing employment reduce/increase intermittently rather than continuously?(2) Why did the share of China's agricultural employment increase during certain periods? When the share of manufacturing employment reduced, why did the workforce reversely flow into agriculture rather than move to the service sector?(3) Why did growth in the share of China's service sector employment decelerate before reaching its peak? Why did the share of employment in the industrial sector suddenly increase after an abrupt decline? This paper creates a multisector economic growth model that contains non-homothetic preferences and differentiated productivity, and incorporates the "two drivers" therein for a demand-side estimation and analysis. The result shows that China's economic growth model driven by net export and investment is a critical factor for explaining the three questions regarding its structural transformation. This paper believes that only by implementing supply-side structural reforms, reducing the dependence on net export and investment, and achieving sustainable endogenous economic growth will China be able to expedite its industrial restructuring.

Shift of Driving Force for China's Industrial Growth during 1979-2012——A Trend toward Worsening Efficiency

The driving force for China's industrial growth has shifted from the synergy of efficiency and factor input to the dominance of capital input alone.With the boundary of 2003,the contribution of capital to the growth of China's industrial economy increased from the annual average of 34.07%to 89.28%while the contribution of TFP dived from the annual average of 47.34%to-4.08%.Meanwhile,TFP growth rates dropped from the annual average of 4.6%to-0.05%and marginal capital output ratio went down from0.61 in 2002 to 0.28 in 2012.This indicates that the investment-driven pattern of China's industrial growth has been confronted with severe inefficiency.Further research suggests that the tendency of worsening industrial growth efficiency already became significant prior to the global financial crisis of 2008 and the eruption of the global financial crisis is not the fundamental reason for the worsening of efficiency and only exacerbated its tendency.The current government-led and investment-driven pattern of industrial growth is the root cause of such efficiency deterioration.Therefore,in order to achieve the transition towards innovation- and efficiency-driven growth pattern,the key is to make an appropriate distinction in the relationship between market and government,i.e.,the government must create a perfect institutional system where the market plays a decisive role and take proactive initiative to promote technology innovation and transfer on the basis of respecting market mechanism and the intent of market entities.

中国环保考核制度调整与经济增长方式转变

经济增长与环境污染之间的关系,是经济增长方式最直接的体现之一。首先分析城市经济增长率与企业二氧化硫排放量之间的关系,发现其在2005年前后发生了根本性转变:在2005年以前,二者高度正相关,而在2005年以后,这种相关性明显减弱。机制分析发现:出现这一转变的直接原因是在2005年及以后随着经济增长率的提高,企业更多地使用清洁能源代替非清洁能源;更深层的原因则是在2005年以前地方官员选择放松环境规制促进经济增长,而2005年及以后此动机因官员环保考核制度调整而受到抑制。进一步分析发现,重污染行业占比不同的城市在2005年及以后选择了不同的“清洁化”增长战略。分析表明,2005年环保考核制度调整使中国的经济增长方式发生了根本性转变。

基于经济增长视角的山东省新旧动能转换效果评估

坚定不移推动新旧动能转换,是当前山东省推动经济高质量发展的重要任务。基于2008-2021年我国30个省级行政区的面板数据,将除山东省以外的其他省(区、市)作为潜在控制组,从经济增长的视角,采用合成控制法,对山东省新旧动能转换重大工程的实施效果进行评估。结果表明,从整体上来说,新旧动能转换重大工程的实施对山东省经济增长具有显著的促进作用,但这种作用的显现具有时间滞后性,并且不同因素对山东省新旧动能转换重大工程的影响具有差异性。因此,要深刻认识和把握新旧动能转换的演进过程,大力推动供需两侧新动能培育和成长等。

新质生产力、经济增长模式与动力机制转换

新质生产力理论是人工智能时代经济增长理论的重要拓展,对我们理解未来新型经济增长及其动力机制提供了崭新视角,同时也必将对未来长期经济发展产生深远影响。改革红利(市场化红利)、开放红利(全球化红利)、人口红利、城镇化红利以及房地产红利,共同推动了四十多年中国经济的高速增长,然而未来中国必然要从粗放型增长(外延式增长)向集约型增长(内涵式增长)转型。新质生产力条件下新型经济增长主要依赖于“六大机制”或曰“六大效应”,即人力资本积累效应、技术扩散和知识溢出效应、产业结构优化效应、要素配置效应、组织变革效应和公共政策效应。未来中国要在经济增长模式转型和动能转换中采取“弹性模式”而不是“刚性模式”,要因地制宜、循序渐进地推动中国产业转型升级,同时深化体制改革,为培育新质生产力提供不竭动力。

碳中和驱动我国经济高质量发展的内在机理和政策路径

实现碳中和目标是我国为积极应对气候变化、破解资源环境约束、展现大国责任担当作出的重大战略决策。经济高质量发展是我国立足新发展阶段、适应内外部环境变化,实现中国式现代化的必由之路。探究碳中和与高质量发展的内在逻辑和作用机制,有助于加快推进经济社会全面绿色低碳转型,稳步迈向人与自然和谐共生的中国式现代化。首先从增长、就业、绿色、成本、风险五个维度系统剖析高质量发展的内涵特征,然后基于这五个维度阐释碳中和驱动我国经济高质量发展的内在机理,最后提出迈向碳中和、实现高质量发展的政策路径。政策路径为:加速能源转型,以可再生能源助推经济社会低碳发展;激发绿色需求,以绿色消费倒逼零碳生产;拓宽区域合作,以资源对接和多能互补促进互利共赢;创新发展范式,以生态文明建设引领经济社会全面绿色转型。

环境目标约束对能源结构低碳转型的影响

加快能源消费结构低碳转型是实现中国式现代化发展的重要途径。鉴于中国资源禀赋的特殊性和区域能源分布差异,各地区对煤炭的依赖程度有很大差别。煤炭资源依赖程度对能源结构低碳转型的差异性影响值得高度关注。为系统评估环境目标约束对煤炭资源依赖地区能源消费结构低碳转型的影响,该研究在理论分析环境目标约束对各地区能源消费结构的内在影响机理,以及经济增长压力和绿色金融在其中发挥的调节作用基础上,以中国特色环境目标约束制度为准自然实验,中国30个省份2003—2020年面板数据为样本,采用广义双重差分模型实证检验环境目标约束对地区能源消费结构低碳转型的影响,并讨论了经济增长压力与绿色金融对该影响的调节作用。研究结果表明:①环境目标约束制度实施后,相比非煤炭资源依赖地区,煤炭资源依赖地区能源消费结构低碳转型受阻,说明存在“绿色悖论”效应。该结论在考虑相关政策影响、运用合成工具变量等方法处理内生性问题后依然稳健。②影响机制检验表明,在煤炭资源依赖地区,地方政府在环境目标约束和经济增长目标“双目标”压力下,更有动力推动能源消费结构低碳转型;受金融监管水平和企业“洗绿”行为影响,绿色金融加剧了煤炭资源依赖地区的能源转型困境。③基于地区市场环境的拓展性分析表明,相比高市场化水平地区,低市场化水平地区的环境目标约束对能源消费结构低碳转型的抑制作用更为突出。研究建议高度重视煤炭资源依赖地区的能源消费结构调整,因地制宜有序推进能源结构低碳转型;将“绿色”作为地方经济增长的底色,以绿色发展理念引领地方经济增长;构建科学高效的绿色金融监管制度,确保绿色金融资金真正运用到绿色低碳项目中;完善市场化的环境规制机制,塑造良好的营商环境。

创新集聚对工业绿色转型的影响

本文通过构建包含创新集聚部门的新经济增长模型,理论阐释了创新集聚对工业绿色转型的非线性作用机制,并基于2006—2020年中国282个城市面板数据,实证检验了创新集聚对工业绿色转型的非线性影响及异质性、空间溢出效应,并验证财政纵向失衡和外商直接投资在其中的调节效应。研究发现:创新集聚对工业绿色转型影响呈U型特征;创新集聚在有效推动东部城市、一线城市工业绿色转型的同时,却抑制了中部城市、资源型城市、四五线城市工业绿色转型;创新集聚影响工业绿色转型的U型特征受到财政纵向失衡的负向调节和外商直接投资的正向调节;创新集聚对地理距离相近地区工业绿色转型的影响存在显著的倒U型空间溢出效应。

新型工业化的经济高质量发展效应研究

运用我国41个大类工业行业数据建立TVP-SV-FAVAR模型,构建新型工业化指数并实证分析新型工业化的经济高质量发展效应。研究结果显示,新型工业化内涵高端化、数字化、智能化、绿色化,是推动我国工业经济平稳增长的主要引擎,我国新型工业化水平稳步上升。新型工业化对经济增长和经济高质量发展均产生了正向影响,既具有总量效应,又具有质量效应,并且中长期效应强于短期效应。新型工业化对经济增长的促进作用总体保持稳定,但是对经济高质量发展的促进作用总体持续增强,质量效应强于总量效应。在经济高速增长时期,新型工业化对经济增长和经济高质量发展的影响强度相对较低,在供给侧结构性改革时期的影响强度明显提升,在经济高质量发展时期继续提升。

基于“企业—行业—开发区”的淮海经济区产业空间集聚特征

企业—行业—开发区不同尺度的产业协同对区域可持续发展具有重要意义。该文基于企业尺度数据,采用标准差椭圆、核密度分析、多距离空间聚类分析、平均最近邻指数,从企业—行业—开发区多尺度视角分析了2002—2022年淮海经济区产业空间集聚特征。结果表明:①研究期间淮海经济区产业总体上呈现“西北—东南”空间集聚格局,表现为以济宁、徐州、临沂、宿迁为核心的点状集聚形态;②淮海经济区以商贸物流、科技研发、装备制造为典型优势行业,产业存在空间分布、集聚尺度与集聚强度差异;③国家级开发区产业集聚指向性比省级开发区更强,高级化态势更显著,经济技术开发区产业集聚水平高于高新技术开发区;④淮海经济区产业空间集聚具有企业—行业—开发区协同特征。

发展新质生产力与深化科技金融创新——兼论国际经验与中国实践

面对新一轮科技革命广泛兴起、全球科技竞争加剧的新态势,中国提出发展新质生产力,既是顺应全球科技革命新趋势、前沿科技创新潮流,也是通过创新驱动、科技引领现代产业体系建设,逐步推动经济转型和产业升级,实现高质量发展和新一轮经济增长。新质生产力聚焦高科技、高效能、高质量,以科技创新推动产业创新,主要围绕战略性新兴产业和未来产业布局。本文认为,高水平科技自立自强需要与之相匹配的科技金融体系和科技投融资服务。围绕科技创新发展,中国的科技金融建设明显加快,资本市场、商业银行及风险投资、股权投资等发挥着愈加突出的作用。本文从广义范畴出发,把握新质生产力的内涵和背景,阐释中国发展新质生产力的具体实践,兼论科技金融发展的国际经验及归纳总结中国科技金融的创新探索。同时,结合新质生产力发展的新要求和科技金融发展的高标准,提出中国需要从发展新质生产力的长远战略考量,深化科技金融创新,构建兼具政策引领和市场化配置的科技金融体系,着眼于建立健全从科技创新成果转化到配套投融资服务,再到科技产业市场化和规模化的全链条、全生命周期的科技金融生态,发挥各类金融主体功能作用,增强金融服务科技产业、科技企业的资源配置能力,以科技金融高质量发展引领高水平科技自立自强,助力实现中国式现代化。

从经济结构转型角度看待我国健康体检行业发展前景

本文研究了健康体检行业在我国经济结构转型背景下的未来发展趋势和机遇。分析认为,健康体检行业是与人民健康和生活质量密切相关的产业,也是与经济发展和社会进步紧密相连的产业。作为服务业的重要组成部分,健康体检行业在我国经济结构转型中将发挥重要作用。通过创新和改革,提高服务质量和效率,打造健康管理生态圈,利用新技术提升智能化和信息化水平,为健康体检行业的发展带来更多机遇,为我国经济结构转型和高质量发展做出贡献。