348-YEAR PRECIPITATION RECONSTRUCTION FROM TREE-RINGS FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE MIDDLE TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS

Correlation census shows that the correlation between the tree-ring chronologies in the Urumqi River Basin and precipitation during July in the last year to February in the concurrent year is significant,and the best single correlation coefficient is 0.74,with significance level of 0.0001. Using two residual chronologies collected from west Baiyanggou and Boerqingou,precipitation for 348 years can be reconstructed in the North Slope of middle Tianshan Mountains,its explained variance is 62%.According to much verification from independent precipitation data,historical climate records,glacier and other data.it shows that the reconstructed precipitation series of 348 years is reliable.Analysis of precipitation features indicates that there were three wet periods occurring during 1671(?)—1692,1716—1794 and 1825—1866 and three dry periods during 1693 —1715,1795—1824 and 1867—1969.Two wet periods,during 1716—1794 and 1825—1866, correspond to the times of the second and the third glacial terminal moraine formation,which is in front of No.1 glacier in Urumqi River source.According to computation,corresponding annual precipitation amounts are 59mm and 30mm more than now.The reconstructed precipitation series has a significant drying trend from 1716 to 1969.and has better representativeness to the precipitation of Urumqi and Changji Prefecture on the North Slope of Tianshan Mountains.

Drought changes and the mechanism analysis for the North American Prairie

The worst droughts in the central part of the North American Prairie in the past several hundred years have been reconstructed from tree-ring chronologies, suggesting that some drought years have exceeded the se- verity shown by the gauge record. A general circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory （GFDL） has simulated climate changes for the area during the past 250 years driven by c^imatic forces, providing scenarios of extreme climate that can further diagnose the mechanisms. This study refined the drought signals from the tree ring data and GFDL modeling at inter-annual and decadal time scales and analyzed the potential mecha- nisms driving the droughts. Results showed that drought years with summer precipitation Ilower than the 10th per- centiles occurred during 1777-1789, 1847-1861 and 1886-1879 AD in the area. Both tree rings and model re- vealed that the frequency of droughts has been relatively consistent in a similar timing andl frequency with climate change. Monte Carlo analysis have detected that the tree ring chronologies have recorded drought years with probabilities of 9.3%-12.8%, and the model has simulated the droughts with probabilities 5..7%-17.8%. Under CO2 and aerosol forcing, the GFDL modeled the drought recurrences of 13 years and 25 years, which are very syn- chronous changes with tree rings and consistent with gauge records. The 20-a and 10-a time scale reoccurrences of droughts are very consistent with solar radiation cycles, and similar to the length of cycles in oceanic records, suggesting that terrestrial precipitation modeling is properly driven from sun-land-sea dynamics. Detected severity, variability and return periods of droughts from the present study make potential improvements in drought predictions and constructing scenarios for climate impacts and adaptation strategies.