Dynamic evolution and trend prediction of multi-scale green innovation in China

Numerous studies deal with spatial analysis of green innovation(GI).However,researchers have paid limited attention to analyzing the multi-scale evolution patterns and predicting trends of GI in China.This paper seeks to address this research gap by examining the multi-scale distribution and evolutionary characteristics of GI activities based on the data from 337 cities in China during 2000-2019.We used scale variance and the two-stage nested Theil decomposition method to examine the spatial distribution and inequalities of GI in China at multiple scales,including regional,provincial,and prefectural.Additionally,we utilized the Markov chain and spatial Markov chain to explore the dynamic evolution of GI in China and predict its long-term development.The findings indicate that GI in China has a multi-scale effect and is highly sensitive to changes in spatial scale,with significant spatial differences of GI decreasing in each scale.Furthermore,the spatiotemporal evolution of GI is influenced by both geospatial patterns and spatial scales,exhibiting the“club convergence”effect and a tendency to transfer to higher levels of proximity.This effect is more pronounced on a larger scale,but it is increasingly challenging to transfer to higher levels.The study also indicates a steady and sustained growth of GI in China,which concentrates on higher levels over time.These results contribute to a more precise understanding of the scale at which GI develops and provide a scientific basis and policy suggestions for optimizing the spatial structure of GI and promoting its development in China.

GHM-FKNN:a generalized Heronian mean based fuzzy k-nearest neighbor classifier for the stock trend prediction

Stock trend prediction is a challenging problem because it involves many variables.Aiming at the problem that some existing machine learning techniques, such as random forest(RF), probabilistic random forest(PRF), k-nearest neighbor(KNN), and fuzzy KNN(FKNN), have difficulty in accurately predicting the stock trend(uptrend or downtrend) for a given date, a generalized Heronian mean(GHM) based FKNN predictor named GHM-FKNN was proposed.GHM-FKNN combines GHM aggregation function with the ideas of the classical FKNN approach.After evaluation, the comparison results elucidated that GHM-FKNN outperformed the other best existing methods RF, PRF, KNN and FKNN on independent test datasets corresponding to three stocks, namely AAPL, AMZN and NFLX.Compared with RF, PRF, KNN and FKNN, GHM-FKNN achieved the best performance with accuracy of 62.37% for AAPL, 58.25% for AMZN, and 64.10% for NFLX.

Grey GM(1,1) Model with Function-Transfer Method for Wear Trend Prediction and its Application

Trend forecasting is an important aspect in fault diagnosis and work state supervision. The principle, where Grey theory is applied in fault forecasting, is that the forecast system is considered as a Grey system; the existing known information is used to infer the unknown information's character, state and development trend in a fault pattern, and to make possible forecasting and decisions for future development. It involves the whitenization of a Grey process. But the traditional equal time interval Grey GM (1,1) model requires equal interval data and needs to bring about accumulating addition generation and reversion calculations. Its calculation is very complex. However, the non equal interval Grey GM (1,1) model decreases the condition of the primitive data when establishing a model, but its requirement is still higher and the data were pre processed. The abrasion primitive data of plant could not always satisfy these modeling requirements. Therefore, it establishes a division method suited for general data modeling and estimating parameters of GM (1,1), the standard error coefficient that was applied to judge accuracy height of the model was put forward; further, the function transform to forecast plant abrasion trend and assess GM (1,1) parameter was established. These two models need not pre process the primitive data. It is not only suited for equal interval data modeling, but also for non equal interval data modeling. Its calculation is simple and convenient to use. The oil spectrum analysis acted as an example. The two GM (1,1) models put forward in this paper and the new information model and its comprehensive usage were investigated. The example shows that the two models are simple and practical, and worth expanding and applying in plant fault diagnosis.

STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ONTHE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR

The Longyangxia Gorge Key Water Control System is the first of the stairstep power sations along the Longyangxi-a-Qingtongxia river section. It has been playing an very important role in providing power, protecting flood and ice run supplying and irrigation etc. in the northwestern China. Therefore, the study on trend prediction, variation on the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir are of the great social and economic benefits. In the medium-and-long-range runoff forecast, all kinds of regression equation are often used for predicting future hydrologic regime. However, these regression models aren’t appropriate to super long -range runoff forecast because of the restricting on weather data and so on. So a new super long-range runoff forecast model don’t depend on Reai-time weather data and called “Period correcting for residual error series GM (1, 1) model” is presented based on analyzing for the relational hydrologic data and the variation on the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir, and the forecast model was applied successfully to predict the recent and super long -term trends of the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir. The results indicate that the annual flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir is in the ending minimum period of the runoff history. The runoff increasing is expected in for the coming years.

Feature Selection, Deep Neural Network and Trend Prediction

The literature generally agrees that longer-horizon(over a month) predictions make more sense than short-horizon ones. However, it's an especially challenging task due to the lack of data(in unit of long horizon)and economic data have a low S/N ratio. We hypothesize that the stock trend is largely dictated by driving factors which are filtered by psychological factors and work on behavioral factors: representative indicators from these three aspects would be adequate in trend prediction. We then extend the Stepwise Regression Analysis(SRA)algorithm to constrained SRA(c SRA) to carry out a further feature selection and lag optimization. During modeling stage, we introduce the Deep Neural Network(DNN) model in stock prediction under the suspicion that economic interactions are too complex for shallow networks to capture. Our experiments indeed show that deep structures generally perform better than shallow ones. Instead of comparing to a kitchen sink model, where over-fitting can easily happen with a shortage of data, we turn around and use a model ensemble approach which indirectly demonstrates our proposed method is adequate.

Adaptive Wavelets Based on Second Generation Wavelet Transform and Their Applications to Trend Analysis and Prediction

In order to make trend analysis and prediction to acquisition data in amechanical equipment condition monitoring system, a new method of trend feature extraction andprediction of acquisition data is proposed which constructs an adaptive wavelet on the acquisitiondata by means of second generation wavelet transform ( SGWT), Firstly, taking the vanishing momentnumber of the predictor as a constraint, the linear predictor and updater are designed according tothe acquisition data by using symmetrical interpolating scheme. Then the trend of the data isobtained through doing SGWT decomposition , threshold processing and SGWT reconstruction. Secondly,under the constraint of the vanishing moment number of the predictor, another predictor based on theacquisition data is devised to predict the future trend of the data using a non-symmetricalinterpolating scheme, A one-step prediction algorithm is presented to predict the future evolutiontrend with historical data. The proposed method obtained a desirable effect in peak-to-peak valuetrend analysis for a machine set in an oil refinery.

Predicting Bitcoin Trends Through Machine Learning Using Sentiment Analysis with Technical Indicators

Predicting Bitcoin price trends is necessary because they represent the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market.As the history of the Bitcoin market is short and price volatility is high,studies have been conducted on the factors affecting changes in Bitcoin prices.Experiments have been conducted to predict Bitcoin prices using Twitter content.However,the amount of data was limited,and prices were predicted for only a short period(less than two years).In this study,data from Reddit and LexisNexis,covering a period of more than four years,were collected.These data were utilized to estimate and compare the performance of the six machine learning techniques by adding technical and sentiment indicators to the price data along with the volume of posts.An accuracy of 90.57%and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value(AUC)of 97.48%were obtained using the extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost).It was shown that the use of both sentiment index using valence aware dictionary and sentiment reasoner(VADER)and 11 technical indicators utilizing moving average,relative strength index(RSI),stochastic oscillators in predicting Bitcoin price trends can produce significant results.Thus,the input features used in the paper can be applied on Bitcoin price prediction.Furthermore,this approach allows investors to make better decisions regarding Bitcoin-related investments.

Dynamics modeling and optimal control for multi-information diffusion in Social Internet of Things

As an ingenious convergence between the Internet of Things and social networks,the Social Internet of Things(SIoT)can provide effective and intelligent information services and has become one of the main platforms for people to spread and share information.Nevertheless,SIoT is characterized by high openness and autonomy,multiple kinds of information can spread rapidly,freely and cooperatively in SIoT,which makes it challenging to accurately reveal the characteristics of the information diffusion process and effectively control its diffusion.To this end,with the aim of exploring multi-information cooperative diffusion processes in SIoT,we first develop a dynamics model for multi-information cooperative diffusion based on the system dynamics theory in this paper.Subsequently,the characteristics and laws of the dynamical evolution process of multi-information cooperative diffusion are theoretically investigated,and the diffusion trend is predicted.On this basis,to further control the multi-information cooperative diffusion process efficiently,we propose two control strategies for information diffusion with control objectives,develop an optimal control system for the multi-information cooperative diffusion process,and propose the corresponding optimal control method.The optimal solution distribution of the control strategy satisfying the control system constraints and the control budget constraints is solved using the optimal control theory.Finally,extensive simulation experiments based on real dataset from Twitter validate the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed model,strategy and method.

Study on Ann-Based Multi-Step Prediction Model of Short-Term Climatic Variation

In the context of 1905–1995 series from Nanjing and Hangzhou, study is undertaken of estab-lishing a predictive model of annual mean temperature in 1996–2005 to come over the Changjiang (Yangtze River) delta region through mean generating function and artificial neural network in combination. Results show that the established model yields mean error of 0.45°C for their abso-lute values of annual mean temperature from 10 yearly independent samples (1986–1995) and the difference between the mean predictions and related measurements is 0.156°C. The developed model is found superior to a mean generating function regression model both in historical data fit-ting and independent sample prediction. Key words Climate trend prediction. Mean generating function (MGF) - Artificial neural network (ANN) - Annual mean temperature (AMT)

An intelligent prediction method of fractures in tight carbonate reservoirs

An intelligent prediction method for fractures in tight carbonate reservoir has been established by upgrading single-well fracture identification and interwell fracture trend prediction with artificial intelligence,modifying construction of interwell fracture density model,and modeling fracture network and making fracture property equivalence.This method deeply mines fracture information in multi-source isomerous data of different scales to reduce uncertainties of fracture prediction.Based on conventional fracture indicating parameter method,a prediction method of single-well fractures has been worked out by using 3 kinds of artificial intelligence methods to improve fracture identification accuracy from 3 aspects,small sample classification,multi-scale nonlinear feature extraction,and decreasing variance of the prediction model.Fracture prediction by artificial intelligence using seismic attributes provides many details of inter-well fractures.It is combined with fault-related fracture information predicted by numerical simulation of reservoir geomechanics to improve inter-well fracture trend prediction.An interwell fracture density model for fracture network modeling is built by coupling single-well fracture identification and interwell fracture trend through co-sequential simulation.By taking the tight carbonate reservoir of Oligocene-Miocene AS Formation of A Oilfield in Zagros Basin of the Middle East as an example,the proposed prediction method was applied and verified.The single-well fracture identification improves over 15%compared with the conventional fracture indication parameter method in accuracy rate,and the inter-well fracture prediction improves over 25%compared with the composite seismic attribute prediction.The established fracture network model is well consistent with the fluid production index.

Design and Implementation of Fresh Vegetable Sales Volume Trend Forecasting System Based on Improved SVR

The forecast of sales volume trend of fresh vegetables has significant referential function for government dominant departments,producers and consumers.In order to evaluate the e-commerce sales information of fresh vegetables scientifically and accurately,the sales volume information of such four common vegetables as baby cabbage,potatoes,bok choy and tomatoes,from Anhui Jinghui Vegetable E-commerce Co.,Ltd.was selected as the research object to establish the sales trend prediction system.Taking the improved SVR as an example,we introduced the overall architecture,detailed design and function realization of the system.The system can reflect the short-term sales volume trend of fresh vegetables,and also can provide guidance for the realization of e-commerce order-oriented management and scientific production.

Multi-Scale Variation Prediction of PM2.5 Concentration Based on a Monte Carlo Method

Haze concentration prediction,especially PM2.5,has always been a significant focus of air quality research,which is necessary to start a deep study.Aimed at predicting the monthly average concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing,a novel method based on Monte Carlo model is conducted.In order to fully exploit the value of PM2.5 data,we take logarithmic processing of the original PM2.5 data and propose two different scales of the daily concentration and the daily chain development speed of PM2.5 respectively.The results show that these data are both approximately normal distribution.On the basis of the results,a Monte Carlo method can be applied to establish a probability model of normal distribution based on two different variables and random sampling numbers can also be generated by computer.Through a large number of simulation experiments,the average monthly concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing and the general trend of PM2.5 can be obtained.By comparing the errors between the real data and the predicted data,the Monte Carlo method is reliable in predicting the PM2.5 monthly mean concentration in the area.This study also provides a feasible method that may be applied in other studies to predict other pollutants with large scale time series data.

Combining Trend-Based Loss with Neural Network for Air Quality Forecasting in Internet of Things

Internet of Things(IoT)is a network that connects things in a special union.It embeds a physical entity through an intelligent perception system to obtain information about the component at any time.It connects various objects.IoT has the ability of information transmission,information perception,and information processing.The air quality forecasting has always been an urgent problem,which affects people’s quality of life seriously.So far,many air quality prediction algorithms have been proposed,which can be mainly classified into two categories.One is regression-based prediction,the other is deep learning-based prediction.Regression-based prediction is aimed to make use of the classical regression algorithm and the various supervised meteorological characteristics to regress themeteorological value.Deep learning methods usually use convolutional neural networks(CNN)or recurrent neural networks(RNN)to predict the meteorological value.As an excellent feature extractor,CNN has achieved good performance in many scenes.In the same way,as an efficient network for orderly data processing,RNN has also achieved good results.However,few or none of the above methods can meet the current accuracy requirements on prediction.Moreover,there is no way to pay attention to the trend monitoring of air quality data.For the sake of accurate results,this paper proposes a novel predicted-trend-based loss function(PTB),which is used to replace the loss function in RNN.At the same time,the trend of change and the predicted value are constrained to obtain more accurate prediction results of PM_(2.5).In addition,this paper extends the model scenario to the prediction of the whole existing training data features.All the data on the next day of the model is mixed labels,which effectively realizes the prediction of all features.The experiments show that the loss function proposed in this paper is effective.

Spatiotemporal evolution of urban carbon emission performance in China and prediction of future trends

Climate change resulting from CO_2 emissions has become an important global environmental issue in recent years.Improving carbon emission performance is one way to reduce carbon emissions.Although carbon emission performance has been discussed at the national and industrial levels,city-level studies are lacking due to the limited availability of statistics on energy consumption.In this study,based on city-level remote sensing data on carbon emissions in China from 1992–2013,we used the slacks-based measure of super-efficiency to evaluate urban carbon emission performance.The traditional Markov probability transfer matrix and spatial Markov probability transfer matrix were constructed to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of urban carbon emission performance in China for the first time and predict long-term trends in carbon emission performance.The results show that urban carbon emission performance in China steadily increased during the study period with some fluctuations.However,the overall level of carbon emission performance remains low,indicating great potential for improvements in energy conservation and emission reduction.The spatial pattern of urban carbon emission performance in China can be described as"high in the south and low in the north,"and significant differences in carbon emission performance were found between cities.The spatial Markov probabilistic transfer matrix results indicate that the transfer of carbon emission performance in Chinese cities is stable,resulting in a"club convergence"phenomenon.Furthermore,neighborhood backgrounds play an important role in the transfer between carbon emission performance types.Based on the prediction of long-term trends in carbon emission performance,carbon emission performance is expected to improve gradually over time.Therefore,China should continue to strengthen research and development aimed at improving urban carbon emission performance and achieving the national energy conservation and emission reduction goals.Meanwhile,neighboring cities with different neighborhood backgrounds should pursue cooperative economic strategies that balance economic growth,energy conservation,and emission reductions to realize low-carbon construction and sustainable development.

A review of research on China's carbon emission peak and its forcing mechanism

In order to make further steps in dealing with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030 and to make best efforts for the peaking early. The carbon emission peak target(CEPT) must result in a forcing mechanism on China's economic transition. This paper, by following the logical order from "research on carbon emission history" to "carbon emission trend prediction," from "research on paths of realizing peak" to "peak restraint research," provides a general review of current status and development trend of researches on China's carbon emission and its peak value. Furthermore,this paper also reviews the basic theories and specific cases of the forcing mechanism.Based on the existing achievements and development trends in this field, the following research directions that can be further expanded are put forward. First, from the perspective of long-term strategy of sustainable development, we should analyze and construct the forcing mechanism of CEPT in a reverse thinking way. Second, economic transition paths under the forcing mechanism should be systematically studied. Third, by constructing a large-scale policy evaluation model, the emission reduction performance and economic impact of a series of policy measures adopted during the transition process should be quantitatively evaluated.

Grey System Judgment on Reliability of Mechanical Equipment

he Grey system theory -was applied in reliability analysis of mechanical equip-ment. It is a new theory and method in reliability engineering of mechanical engineering of mechanical equipment. Through the Grey forecast of reliability parameters and the reliability forecast of parts and systems, decisions were made in the real operative state of e-quipment in real time. It replaced the old method that required mathematics and physical statistics in a large base of test data to obtain a pre-check , and it was used in a practical problem. Because of applying the data of practical operation state in real time, it could much more approach the real condition of equipment; it-was applied to guide the procedure and had rather considerable economic and social benefits.

Index System and Influence of Drought in Northwest China

In this paper, the index systems of the agricultural drought and decrease percentage of grain crop are established. The trend and influence of drought in the region is analyzed based on the 50 years （1951-2000） statistical data of precipitation and 52 years （1951 2002） agricultural drought of the region, including tire provinces： Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai and Xinjiang. The result shows that the drought disaster is increasing and the most serious were in the 1970s and 1990s, and main agricultural drought is a great disaster incident. The regression prediction equation of drought and flood grades and agricultural drought areas grades are set up by the harmonic wave method, and forecasting the drought will lighten during the first ten years of the 21st century.

R/S analysis of earthquake time interval

The R/S analysis method of time series was suggested by Hurst in 1965, then it was used tostudy the fractional Brownian motion(FBM) and the self--affinity of natural phenomena (MandeLbrot and Wallis, 1969a 3 Feder, 1988). In this paper, we use R/S analysis method to study thechsnges of Hurst exponent H of time interval sequences Of earthquakes with time variations for 5r%ions as follows: Wuqia (38'--41'N, 73'- 77 'E, M.>3' 5) I Tangshan (38'-41'N,116. 5'-- 119. 5'E, ML 2 3); Longling (23'- 26'N, 97'-- 100'E, ML > 3); Songpan (31'- 34'N,102. 5'- 105. 5'E, ML;3); China and its vicinity (20'- 50'N, 73'-129'E, M,>5), andmake an attempt to find features of anomalous variations of H values before the moderate strongearthquakes.

Rolling Iterative Prediction for Correlated Multivariate Time Series

Correlated multivariate time series prediction is an effective tool for discovering the chang rules of temporal data,but it is challenging tofind these rules.Recently,deep learning methods have made it possible to predict high-dimensional and complex multivariate time series data.However,these methods cannot capture or predict potential mutation signals of time series,leading to a lag in data prediction trends and large errors.Moreover,it is difficult to capture dependencies of the data,especially when the data is sparse and the time intervals are large.In this paper,we proposed a prediction approach that leverages both propagation dynamics and deep learning,called Rolling Iterative Prediction(RIP).In RIP method,the Time-Delay Moving Average(TDMA)is used to carry out maximum likelihood reduction on the raw data,and the propagation dynamics model is applied to obtain the potential propagation parameters data,and dynamic properties of the correlated multivariate time series are clearly established.Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)is applied to capture the time dependencies of data,and the medium and long-term Rolling Iterative Prediction method is established by alternately estimating parameters and predicting time series.Experiments are performed on the data of the Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19)in China,France,and South Korea.Experimental results show that the real distribution of the epidemic data is well restored,the prediction accuracy is better than baseline methods.

Predicting Trend of High Frequency CSI 300 Index Using Adaptive Input Selection and Machine Learning Techniques

High-frequency stock trend prediction using machine learners has raised substantial interest in literature. Nevertheless, there is no gold standard to select the inputs for the learners. This paper investigates the approach of adaptive input selection(AIS) for the trend prediction of high-frequency stock index price and compares it with the commonly used deterministic input setting(DIS) approach.The DIS approach is implemented through computation of technical indicator values on deterministic period parameters. The AIS approach selects the most suitable indicators and their parameters for the time-varying dataset using feature selection methods. Two state-of-the-art machine learners, support vector machine(SVM) and artificial neural network(ANN), are adopted as learning models. Accuracy and F-measure of SVM and ANN models with both the approaches are computed based on the high-frequency data of CSI 300 index. The results suggest that the AIS approach using t-statistics,information gain and ROC methods can achieve better prediction performance than the DIS approach.Also, the investment performance evaluation shows that the AIS approach with the same three feature selection methods provides significantly higher returns than the DIS approach.