This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment...This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment of projected changes in precipitation extremes using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the long-term period (2081-2100) of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Furthermore, the study investigates potential mechanisms influencing precipitation extremes by correlating extreme precipitation indices with oceanic system indices, specifically Ni?o 3.4 for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed distinct spatial distributions in mean trends of extreme precipitation indices, indicating a tendency toward decreased extreme precipitation in North Africa, Sahel region, Central Africa and the Western part of South Africa. Conversely, West Africa, East Africa and the Eastern part of South Africa exhibit an inclination toward increased extreme precipitation. The changes in precipitation extreme indices indicate a general rise in both the severity and occurrence of extreme precipitation events under all scenarios by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Notably, our analysis projects a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in the far-future. Additionally, correlation analysis highlights significant correlation between above or below threshold rainfall fluctuation in East Africa and South Africa with oceanic systems, particularly ENSO and the IOD. Central Africa abnormal precipitation variability is also linked to ENSO with a significant negative correlation. These insights contribute valuable information for understanding and projecting the dynamics of precipitation extreme in Africa, providing a foundation for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the region.展开更多
Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM ...Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined,and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed.By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation(2011–2050)under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM,trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed.Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China,distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other;their spatial correlation coefcients are above 0.75.The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China.It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region,central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly,and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050.The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions,also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years.展开更多
Based on observations and Coupled Model lntercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） results, multidecadal variations and trends in annual mean surface air temperature anomalies （SATa） at global, hemispheric, and hemis...Based on observations and Coupled Model lntercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） results, multidecadal variations and trends in annual mean surface air temperature anomalies （SATa） at global, hemispheric, and hemispheric land and ocean scales in the past and under the future scenarios of two representative concentration pathways （RCPs） are analyzed. Fifteen models are selected based on their performances in capturing the temporal variability, long-term trend, multidecadal variations, and trends in global annual mean SATa. Observational data analysis shows that the multidecadal variations in annual mean SATa of the land and ocean in the northern hemisphere （NH） and of the ocean in the southern hemisphere （SH） are similar to those of the global mean, showing an increase during the 1900-1944 and 1971-2000 periods, and flattening or even cooling during the 1945-1970 and 2001-2013 periods. These observed characteristics are basically reproduced by the models. However, SATa over SH land show an increase during the 1945-1970 period, which differs from the other hemispheric scales, and this feature is not captured well by the models. For the recent hiatus period （2001-2013）, the projected trends of BCC-CSM1-1-m, CMCC-CM, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-ME at the global and hemispheric scales are closest to the observations based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting that these four models have better projection capability in SATa. Because these four models are better at simulating and projecting the multidecadal trends of SATa, they are selected to analyze future SATa variations at the global and hemispheric scales during the 2006-2099 period. The selected multi-model ensemble （MME） projected trends in annual mean SATa for the globe, NH, and SH under RCP4.5 （RCP8.5） are 0.17 （0.29） ℃, 0.22 （0.36） ℃, and 0.11 （0.23） ℃-decade-1 in the 21st century, respectively. These values are significantly lower than the projections of CMIP5 MME without model selection.展开更多
AIM:To investigate national trends in distal pancreatectomy(DP) through query of three national patient care databases.METHODS:From the Nationwide Inpatient Sample(NIS,2003-2009),the National Surgical Quality Improvem...AIM:To investigate national trends in distal pancreatectomy(DP) through query of three national patient care databases.METHODS:From the Nationwide Inpatient Sample(NIS,2003-2009),the National Surgical Quality Improvement Project(NSQIP,2005-2010),and the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results(SEER,2003-2009) databases using appropriate diagnostic and procedural codes we identified all patients with a diagnosis of a benign or malignant lesion of the body and/or tail of the pancreas that had undergone a partial or distal pancreatectomy.Utilization of laparoscopy was defined in NIS by the International Classification of Diseases,Ninth Revision correspondent procedure code;and in NSQIP by the exploratory laparoscopy or unlisted procedure current procedural terminology codes.In SEER,patients were identified by the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology,Third Edition diagnosis codes and the SEER Program Code Manual,third edition procedure codes.We analyzed the databases with respect to trends of inpatient outcome metrics,oncologic outcomes,and hospital volumes in patients with lesions of the neck and body of the pancreas that underwent operative resection.RESULTS:NIS,NSQIP and SEER identified 4242,2681 and 11 082 DP resections,respectively.Overall,laparoscopy was utilized in 15%(NIS) and 27%(NSQIP).No significant increase was seen over the course of the study.Resection was performed for malignancy in 59%(NIS) and 66%(NSQIP).Neither patient Body mass index nor comorbidities were associated with operative approach(P = 0.95 and P = 0.96,respectively).Mortality(3% vs 2%,P = 0.05) and reoperation(4% vs 4%,P = 1.0) was not different between laparoscopy and open groups.Overall complications(10% vs 15%,P < 0.001),hospital costs [44 741 dollars,interquartile range(IQR) 28 347-74 114 dollars vs 49 792 dollars,IQR 13 299-73 463,P = 0.02] and hospital length of stay(7 d,IQR 4-11 d vs 7 d,IQR 6-10,P < 0.001) were less when laparoscopy was utilized.One and two year survival after resection for malignancy were unchanged over the course of the study(ductal adenocarinoma 1-year 63.6% and 2-year 35.1%,P = 0.53;intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and nueroendocrine 1-year 90% and 2-year 84%,P = 0.25).The majority of resections were performed in teaching hospitals(77% NIS and 85% NSQIP),but minimally invasive surgery(MIS) was not more likely to be used in teaching hospitals(15% vs 14%,P = 0.26).Hospitals in the top decile for volume were more likely to be teaching hospitals than lower volume deciles(88% vs 43%,P < 0.001),but were no more likely to utilize MIS at resection.Complication rate in teaching and the top decile hospitals was not significantly decreased when compared to non-teaching(15% vs 14%,P = 0.72) and lower volume hospitals(14% vs 15%,P = 0.99).No difference was seen in the median number of lymph nodes and lymph node ratio in N1 disease when compared by year(P = 0.17 and P = 0.96,respectively).CONCLUSION:There appears to be an overall underutilization of laparoscopy for DP.Centralization does not appear to be occurring.Survival and lymph node harvest have not changed.展开更多
文摘This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment of projected changes in precipitation extremes using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the long-term period (2081-2100) of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Furthermore, the study investigates potential mechanisms influencing precipitation extremes by correlating extreme precipitation indices with oceanic system indices, specifically Ni?o 3.4 for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed distinct spatial distributions in mean trends of extreme precipitation indices, indicating a tendency toward decreased extreme precipitation in North Africa, Sahel region, Central Africa and the Western part of South Africa. Conversely, West Africa, East Africa and the Eastern part of South Africa exhibit an inclination toward increased extreme precipitation. The changes in precipitation extreme indices indicate a general rise in both the severity and occurrence of extreme precipitation events under all scenarios by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Notably, our analysis projects a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in the far-future. Additionally, correlation analysis highlights significant correlation between above or below threshold rainfall fluctuation in East Africa and South Africa with oceanic systems, particularly ENSO and the IOD. Central Africa abnormal precipitation variability is also linked to ENSO with a significant negative correlation. These insights contribute valuable information for understanding and projecting the dynamics of precipitation extreme in Africa, providing a foundation for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the region.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2010CB428401)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No40911130506)
文摘Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined,and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed.By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation(2011–2050)under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM,trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed.Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China,distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other;their spatial correlation coefcients are above 0.75.The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China.It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region,central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly,and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050.The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions,also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years.
基金This study was supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China （2016YFA0601801）, the State Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China （41530424）, National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interactions, State Oceanic Administration （SOA） （GASI-IPOVAI-03）, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China （41305121）. We sincerely thank two anonymous reviewers whose comments improved the paper.
文摘Based on observations and Coupled Model lntercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） results, multidecadal variations and trends in annual mean surface air temperature anomalies （SATa） at global, hemispheric, and hemispheric land and ocean scales in the past and under the future scenarios of two representative concentration pathways （RCPs） are analyzed. Fifteen models are selected based on their performances in capturing the temporal variability, long-term trend, multidecadal variations, and trends in global annual mean SATa. Observational data analysis shows that the multidecadal variations in annual mean SATa of the land and ocean in the northern hemisphere （NH） and of the ocean in the southern hemisphere （SH） are similar to those of the global mean, showing an increase during the 1900-1944 and 1971-2000 periods, and flattening or even cooling during the 1945-1970 and 2001-2013 periods. These observed characteristics are basically reproduced by the models. However, SATa over SH land show an increase during the 1945-1970 period, which differs from the other hemispheric scales, and this feature is not captured well by the models. For the recent hiatus period （2001-2013）, the projected trends of BCC-CSM1-1-m, CMCC-CM, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-ME at the global and hemispheric scales are closest to the observations based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting that these four models have better projection capability in SATa. Because these four models are better at simulating and projecting the multidecadal trends of SATa, they are selected to analyze future SATa variations at the global and hemispheric scales during the 2006-2099 period. The selected multi-model ensemble （MME） projected trends in annual mean SATa for the globe, NH, and SH under RCP4.5 （RCP8.5） are 0.17 （0.29） ℃, 0.22 （0.36） ℃, and 0.11 （0.23） ℃-decade-1 in the 21st century, respectively. These values are significantly lower than the projections of CMIP5 MME without model selection.
文摘AIM:To investigate national trends in distal pancreatectomy(DP) through query of three national patient care databases.METHODS:From the Nationwide Inpatient Sample(NIS,2003-2009),the National Surgical Quality Improvement Project(NSQIP,2005-2010),and the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results(SEER,2003-2009) databases using appropriate diagnostic and procedural codes we identified all patients with a diagnosis of a benign or malignant lesion of the body and/or tail of the pancreas that had undergone a partial or distal pancreatectomy.Utilization of laparoscopy was defined in NIS by the International Classification of Diseases,Ninth Revision correspondent procedure code;and in NSQIP by the exploratory laparoscopy or unlisted procedure current procedural terminology codes.In SEER,patients were identified by the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology,Third Edition diagnosis codes and the SEER Program Code Manual,third edition procedure codes.We analyzed the databases with respect to trends of inpatient outcome metrics,oncologic outcomes,and hospital volumes in patients with lesions of the neck and body of the pancreas that underwent operative resection.RESULTS:NIS,NSQIP and SEER identified 4242,2681 and 11 082 DP resections,respectively.Overall,laparoscopy was utilized in 15%(NIS) and 27%(NSQIP).No significant increase was seen over the course of the study.Resection was performed for malignancy in 59%(NIS) and 66%(NSQIP).Neither patient Body mass index nor comorbidities were associated with operative approach(P = 0.95 and P = 0.96,respectively).Mortality(3% vs 2%,P = 0.05) and reoperation(4% vs 4%,P = 1.0) was not different between laparoscopy and open groups.Overall complications(10% vs 15%,P < 0.001),hospital costs [44 741 dollars,interquartile range(IQR) 28 347-74 114 dollars vs 49 792 dollars,IQR 13 299-73 463,P = 0.02] and hospital length of stay(7 d,IQR 4-11 d vs 7 d,IQR 6-10,P < 0.001) were less when laparoscopy was utilized.One and two year survival after resection for malignancy were unchanged over the course of the study(ductal adenocarinoma 1-year 63.6% and 2-year 35.1%,P = 0.53;intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and nueroendocrine 1-year 90% and 2-year 84%,P = 0.25).The majority of resections were performed in teaching hospitals(77% NIS and 85% NSQIP),but minimally invasive surgery(MIS) was not more likely to be used in teaching hospitals(15% vs 14%,P = 0.26).Hospitals in the top decile for volume were more likely to be teaching hospitals than lower volume deciles(88% vs 43%,P < 0.001),but were no more likely to utilize MIS at resection.Complication rate in teaching and the top decile hospitals was not significantly decreased when compared to non-teaching(15% vs 14%,P = 0.72) and lower volume hospitals(14% vs 15%,P = 0.99).No difference was seen in the median number of lymph nodes and lymph node ratio in N1 disease when compared by year(P = 0.17 and P = 0.96,respectively).CONCLUSION:There appears to be an overall underutilization of laparoscopy for DP.Centralization does not appear to be occurring.Survival and lymph node harvest have not changed.
