Rockbursts have become a significant hazard in underground mining,underscoring the need for a robust early warning model to ensure safety management.This study presents a novel approach for rockburst prediction,integr...Rockbursts have become a significant hazard in underground mining,underscoring the need for a robust early warning model to ensure safety management.This study presents a novel approach for rockburst prediction,integrating the Mann-Kendall trend test(MKT)and multi-indices fusion to enable real-time and quantitative assessment of rockburst hazards.The methodology employed in this study involves the development of a comprehensive precursory index library for rockbursts.The MKT is then applied to analyze the real-time trend of each index,with adherence to rockburst characterization laws serving as the warning criterion.By employing a confusion matrix,the warning effectiveness of each index is assessed,enabling index preference determination.Ultimately,the integrated rockburst hazard index Q is derived through data fusion.The results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves a warning effectiveness of 0.563 for Q,surpassing the performance of any individual index.Moreover,the model’s adaptability and scalability are enhanced through periodic updates driven by actual field monitoring data,making it suitable for complex underground working environments.By providing an efficient and accurate basis for decision-making,the proposed model holds great potential for the prevention and control of rockbursts.It offers a valuable tool for enhancing safety measures in underground mining operations.展开更多
Rainfall and temperature variability analysis is important for researchers and policy formulators in making critical decisions on water availability and use in communities. The Western Sahel, which comprises Mali is c...Rainfall and temperature variability analysis is important for researchers and policy formulators in making critical decisions on water availability and use in communities. The Western Sahel, which comprises Mali is considered as one of the vulnerable regions to climate change, and also encountered the challenges of climatic shocks such as flood and drought. This research therefore sought to investigate climate change effects on hydrological events and trends in Sahelian rainfall intensity using Bamako (Mali) as a case study from 1991 to 2020, as limited data availability did not allow an extended period of study. Monthly observed data provided by MALI-METEO was used to validate daily rainfalls data from African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2) satellite-based rainfall product on monthly basis. The validated model performance used Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBAIS) and gave results of 0.904 and 1.0506 respectively. Trends in annual maximum temperatures and rainfalls were analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test. The result indicated that the trend in annual maximum rainfalls was decreasing, while annual total rainfall was increasing but not significant at 5% significance level. The rate of increase in annual total rainfalls was 0.475 mm/year according to the observed annual rainfall series and decreased to 0.68 mm/year in annual maximum. The analysis further found that annual maximum temperatures were increasing at the rate of 0.03°C/year at 5% significance level. To provide more accurate climate predictions, it is recommended that further studies on rainfall and temperature with data sets spanning 60 - 90 years be carried out.展开更多
Rainfall expresses one of the most complex climate factors in Southeastern Brazil. Understanding the dynamics and temporal trends of rainfall represents a significant challenge due to regional and even global mechanis...Rainfall expresses one of the most complex climate factors in Southeastern Brazil. Understanding the dynamics and temporal trends of rainfall represents a significant challenge due to regional and even global mechanisms, such as FS (Frontal Systems) and the SACZ (South Atlantic Convergence Zone), and the interaction with the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The present study aimed at analyzing the pluviometric tendencies in S<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:"font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#F7F7F7;">ã</span>o Carlos/SP, in the countryside of S<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:"font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#F7F7F7;">ã</span>o Paulo State. Laplace trend test was used to comprehend the temporal evolution of daily rainfall in the region in the historical series 1979-2017, in seven pluviometric stations (climatological or surface stations). Significant fluctuations in interannual trends and between seasons were observed. However, it was noted that the beginning of the 1980s showed positive trends, whereas, as of the year 2000, most of the stations demonstrated negative trends, indicating a reduction in daily rainfall volume due to the great tropical climatic variability of Brazil. Emphasis should also be given to the regional and local effects, such as elevation and urbanization, respectively, which corroborate such differences among the analyzed stations. This methodology is of considerable value for the observation of pluviometric trends, and future studies can validate such a tool in climatological studies.展开更多
Vegetation is the main component of the terrestrial ecosystem and plays a key role in global climate change. Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect vegetation trends at large scales. To understan...Vegetation is the main component of the terrestrial ecosystem and plays a key role in global climate change. Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect vegetation trends at large scales. To understand the trends of vegetation cover, this research examined the spatial-temporal trends of global vegetation by employing the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies(GIMMS) time series(1982–2015). Ten samples were selected to test the temporal trend of NDVI, and the results show that in arid and semi-arid regions, NDVI showed a deceasing trend, while it showed a growing trend in other regions. Mann-Kendal(MK) trend test results indicate that 83.37% of NDVI pixels exhibited positive trends and that only 16.63% showed negative trends(P < 0.05) during the period from 1982 to 2015. The increasing NDVI trends primarily occurred in tree-covered regions because of forest growth and re-growth and also because of vegetation succession after a forest disturbance. The increasing trend of the NDVI in cropland regions was primarily because of the increasing cropland area and the improvement in planting techniques. This research describes the spatial vegetation trends at a global scale over the past 30+ years, especially for different land cover types.展开更多
Genetic association studies usually apply the simple chi-square (χ<sup>2</sup>)-test for testing association between a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and a particular phenotype, assuming the genotyp...Genetic association studies usually apply the simple chi-square (χ<sup>2</sup>)-test for testing association between a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and a particular phenotype, assuming the genotypes and phenotypes are independent. So, the conventional χ<sup>2</sup>-test does not consider the increased risk of an individual carrying the increasing number of disease responsible allele (a particular genotype). But, the association tests should be performed with the consideration of this disease risk according to the mode of inheritance (additive, dominant, recessive). Practical demonstration of the two possible methods for considering such order or trends in contingency tables of genetic association studies using SNP genotype data is the purpose of this paper. One method is by pooling the genotypes, and the other is scoring the individual genotypes, based on the disease risk according to the inheritance pattern. The results show that the p-values obtained from both the methods are similar for the dominant and recessive models. The other important features of the methods were also extracted using the SNP genotype data for different inheritance patterns.展开更多
The genetic models are greatly important in the analysis of genetic epidemiologic studies and many of the studies are conducted using the trend test under the additive model. However, for many complex diseases and tra...The genetic models are greatly important in the analysis of genetic epidemiologic studies and many of the studies are conducted using the trend test under the additive model. However, for many complex diseases and traits, the underlying genetic model for a genetic locus is usually uncertain. So a robust test free of genetic model is appropriate. In this paper, the authors propose a model-embedded trend test by incorporating Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium information and obtain the explicit formula to calculate its statistical significance. Extensive simulation studies show the proposed test is more robust than the existing procedures. Finally, a real application is further analyzed to show the performance of the proposed test.展开更多
Gemstones have fascinated mankind forever,and people traveled far to find them.The Silk Road is one of the most traditional trade routes in the middle ages that was used to bring the precious stones to the European ma...Gemstones have fascinated mankind forever,and people traveled far to find them.The Silk Road is one of the most traditional trade routes in the middle ages that was used to bring the precious stones to the European market.Later,emeralds from Colombia were shipped via the ocean to the Old World.展开更多
Communicative testing, with its purpose of measuring communicative competence, has brought changes to the current EFL tests in content and format and produced a widespread and profound influence on modern language tes...Communicative testing, with its purpose of measuring communicative competence, has brought changes to the current EFL tests in content and format and produced a widespread and profound influence on modern language testing models in the two decades. This paper gives a brief introduction to the development of communicative testing, and presents the trend of modern EFL testing in the aspects of oral test, proportion of subjective and objective items, content, context, incorporation of skills as well as criteria of assessment, which is the result of enlightenment of communicative testing theories.展开更多
The impact trend of rock-coal system was studied by the method of accumulat- ing and releasing of deformation energy and interaction of rock-coal system.The system model of roof-coal-floor was established.Based on the...The impact trend of rock-coal system was studied by the method of accumulat- ing and releasing of deformation energy and interaction of rock-coal system.The system model of roof-coal-floor was established.Based on the RFPA software,rock fracture process analysis system,the numerical test of deformation,fracture and energy transmis- sion of nonlinear and nonhomogeneous rock-coal system,and the numerical test and evaluating method of impact trend of rock-coal system were achieved.When the same coal seam was in different roof and floor conditions,the fracture process of rock-coal sys- tem can be classified as gradual,sudden and delayed fracture three kinds,and their im- pact trend can be classified as void,intense and medium correspondingly.The rock-coal system's impact trend is evaluated by the system impact index μ and burst expanding forms.The criteria μ are μ<1.0,1.0≤μ<1.5 and μ≥1.5 when the impact trend is void,in- tense or medium,which are tested and verified by the No.2 and No.4 coal seams in Sun- cun mine.展开更多
The study focused on the detection of indicators of climate change in 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) rainfall data collected for 36 years (1982-2017) for Warri Township, using different statistical methods yiel...The study focused on the detection of indicators of climate change in 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) rainfall data collected for 36 years (1982-2017) for Warri Township, using different statistical methods yielded a statistically insignificant positive mild trend. The IMD and MCIMD downscaled model’s time series data respectively produced MK statistics varying from 1.403 to 1.4729, and 1.403 to 1.463 which were less than the critical Z-value of 1.96. Also, the slope magnitude obtained showed a mild increasing trend in variation from 0.0189 to 0.3713, and 0.0175 to 0.5426, with the rate of change in rainfall intensity at 24 hours duration as 0.4536 and 0.42 mm/hr.year (4.536 and 4.2 mm/decade) for the IMD and the MCIMD time series data, respectively. The trend change point date occurred in the year 2000 from the distribution-free CUSUM test with the trend maintaining a significant and steady increase from 2010 to 2015. Thus, this study established the existence of a trend, which is an indication of a changing climate, and satisfied the condition for rainfall Non-stationary intensity-duration-frequency (NS-IDF) modeling required for infrastructural design for combating flooding events.展开更多
基金The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52011530037 and 51904019)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities and the Youth Teacher International Exchange&Growth Program(Grant No.QNXM20210004).We also greatly appreciate the assistance provided by Kuangou coal mine,China Energy Group Xinjiang Energy Co.,Ltd.
文摘Rockbursts have become a significant hazard in underground mining,underscoring the need for a robust early warning model to ensure safety management.This study presents a novel approach for rockburst prediction,integrating the Mann-Kendall trend test(MKT)and multi-indices fusion to enable real-time and quantitative assessment of rockburst hazards.The methodology employed in this study involves the development of a comprehensive precursory index library for rockbursts.The MKT is then applied to analyze the real-time trend of each index,with adherence to rockburst characterization laws serving as the warning criterion.By employing a confusion matrix,the warning effectiveness of each index is assessed,enabling index preference determination.Ultimately,the integrated rockburst hazard index Q is derived through data fusion.The results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves a warning effectiveness of 0.563 for Q,surpassing the performance of any individual index.Moreover,the model’s adaptability and scalability are enhanced through periodic updates driven by actual field monitoring data,making it suitable for complex underground working environments.By providing an efficient and accurate basis for decision-making,the proposed model holds great potential for the prevention and control of rockbursts.It offers a valuable tool for enhancing safety measures in underground mining operations.
文摘Rainfall and temperature variability analysis is important for researchers and policy formulators in making critical decisions on water availability and use in communities. The Western Sahel, which comprises Mali is considered as one of the vulnerable regions to climate change, and also encountered the challenges of climatic shocks such as flood and drought. This research therefore sought to investigate climate change effects on hydrological events and trends in Sahelian rainfall intensity using Bamako (Mali) as a case study from 1991 to 2020, as limited data availability did not allow an extended period of study. Monthly observed data provided by MALI-METEO was used to validate daily rainfalls data from African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2) satellite-based rainfall product on monthly basis. The validated model performance used Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBAIS) and gave results of 0.904 and 1.0506 respectively. Trends in annual maximum temperatures and rainfalls were analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test. The result indicated that the trend in annual maximum rainfalls was decreasing, while annual total rainfall was increasing but not significant at 5% significance level. The rate of increase in annual total rainfalls was 0.475 mm/year according to the observed annual rainfall series and decreased to 0.68 mm/year in annual maximum. The analysis further found that annual maximum temperatures were increasing at the rate of 0.03°C/year at 5% significance level. To provide more accurate climate predictions, it is recommended that further studies on rainfall and temperature with data sets spanning 60 - 90 years be carried out.
文摘Rainfall expresses one of the most complex climate factors in Southeastern Brazil. Understanding the dynamics and temporal trends of rainfall represents a significant challenge due to regional and even global mechanisms, such as FS (Frontal Systems) and the SACZ (South Atlantic Convergence Zone), and the interaction with the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The present study aimed at analyzing the pluviometric tendencies in S<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:"font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#F7F7F7;">ã</span>o Carlos/SP, in the countryside of S<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:"font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#F7F7F7;">ã</span>o Paulo State. Laplace trend test was used to comprehend the temporal evolution of daily rainfall in the region in the historical series 1979-2017, in seven pluviometric stations (climatological or surface stations). Significant fluctuations in interannual trends and between seasons were observed. However, it was noted that the beginning of the 1980s showed positive trends, whereas, as of the year 2000, most of the stations demonstrated negative trends, indicating a reduction in daily rainfall volume due to the great tropical climatic variability of Brazil. Emphasis should also be given to the regional and local effects, such as elevation and urbanization, respectively, which corroborate such differences among the analyzed stations. This methodology is of considerable value for the observation of pluviometric trends, and future studies can validate such a tool in climatological studies.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41771179,41871103,41771138)the National Key Research and Development Project(No.2016YFA0602301)
文摘Vegetation is the main component of the terrestrial ecosystem and plays a key role in global climate change. Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect vegetation trends at large scales. To understand the trends of vegetation cover, this research examined the spatial-temporal trends of global vegetation by employing the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies(GIMMS) time series(1982–2015). Ten samples were selected to test the temporal trend of NDVI, and the results show that in arid and semi-arid regions, NDVI showed a deceasing trend, while it showed a growing trend in other regions. Mann-Kendal(MK) trend test results indicate that 83.37% of NDVI pixels exhibited positive trends and that only 16.63% showed negative trends(P < 0.05) during the period from 1982 to 2015. The increasing NDVI trends primarily occurred in tree-covered regions because of forest growth and re-growth and also because of vegetation succession after a forest disturbance. The increasing trend of the NDVI in cropland regions was primarily because of the increasing cropland area and the improvement in planting techniques. This research describes the spatial vegetation trends at a global scale over the past 30+ years, especially for different land cover types.
文摘Genetic association studies usually apply the simple chi-square (χ<sup>2</sup>)-test for testing association between a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and a particular phenotype, assuming the genotypes and phenotypes are independent. So, the conventional χ<sup>2</sup>-test does not consider the increased risk of an individual carrying the increasing number of disease responsible allele (a particular genotype). But, the association tests should be performed with the consideration of this disease risk according to the mode of inheritance (additive, dominant, recessive). Practical demonstration of the two possible methods for considering such order or trends in contingency tables of genetic association studies using SNP genotype data is the purpose of this paper. One method is by pooling the genotypes, and the other is scoring the individual genotypes, based on the disease risk according to the inheritance pattern. The results show that the p-values obtained from both the methods are similar for the dominant and recessive models. The other important features of the methods were also extracted using the SNP genotype data for different inheritance patterns.
基金partial supported by Special National Key Research and Development Plan under Grant No.2016YFD0400206the Breakthrough Project of Strategic Priority Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant No.XDB13040600+2 种基金Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciencethe National Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.11371353,11661080,61134013Special Fund of the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences for Scientific Research Cooperation
文摘The genetic models are greatly important in the analysis of genetic epidemiologic studies and many of the studies are conducted using the trend test under the additive model. However, for many complex diseases and traits, the underlying genetic model for a genetic locus is usually uncertain. So a robust test free of genetic model is appropriate. In this paper, the authors propose a model-embedded trend test by incorporating Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium information and obtain the explicit formula to calculate its statistical significance. Extensive simulation studies show the proposed test is more robust than the existing procedures. Finally, a real application is further analyzed to show the performance of the proposed test.
文摘Gemstones have fascinated mankind forever,and people traveled far to find them.The Silk Road is one of the most traditional trade routes in the middle ages that was used to bring the precious stones to the European market.Later,emeralds from Colombia were shipped via the ocean to the Old World.
文摘Communicative testing, with its purpose of measuring communicative competence, has brought changes to the current EFL tests in content and format and produced a widespread and profound influence on modern language testing models in the two decades. This paper gives a brief introduction to the development of communicative testing, and presents the trend of modern EFL testing in the aspects of oral test, proportion of subjective and objective items, content, context, incorporation of skills as well as criteria of assessment, which is the result of enlightenment of communicative testing theories.
基金the Ministry of Education Backbone Teachers Funded Projects
文摘The impact trend of rock-coal system was studied by the method of accumulat- ing and releasing of deformation energy and interaction of rock-coal system.The system model of roof-coal-floor was established.Based on the RFPA software,rock fracture process analysis system,the numerical test of deformation,fracture and energy transmis- sion of nonlinear and nonhomogeneous rock-coal system,and the numerical test and evaluating method of impact trend of rock-coal system were achieved.When the same coal seam was in different roof and floor conditions,the fracture process of rock-coal sys- tem can be classified as gradual,sudden and delayed fracture three kinds,and their im- pact trend can be classified as void,intense and medium correspondingly.The rock-coal system's impact trend is evaluated by the system impact index μ and burst expanding forms.The criteria μ are μ<1.0,1.0≤μ<1.5 and μ≥1.5 when the impact trend is void,in- tense or medium,which are tested and verified by the No.2 and No.4 coal seams in Sun- cun mine.
文摘The study focused on the detection of indicators of climate change in 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) rainfall data collected for 36 years (1982-2017) for Warri Township, using different statistical methods yielded a statistically insignificant positive mild trend. The IMD and MCIMD downscaled model’s time series data respectively produced MK statistics varying from 1.403 to 1.4729, and 1.403 to 1.463 which were less than the critical Z-value of 1.96. Also, the slope magnitude obtained showed a mild increasing trend in variation from 0.0189 to 0.3713, and 0.0175 to 0.5426, with the rate of change in rainfall intensity at 24 hours duration as 0.4536 and 0.42 mm/hr.year (4.536 and 4.2 mm/decade) for the IMD and the MCIMD time series data, respectively. The trend change point date occurred in the year 2000 from the distribution-free CUSUM test with the trend maintaining a significant and steady increase from 2010 to 2015. Thus, this study established the existence of a trend, which is an indication of a changing climate, and satisfied the condition for rainfall Non-stationary intensity-duration-frequency (NS-IDF) modeling required for infrastructural design for combating flooding events.