The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and pre...The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.展开更多
Based on the reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)and the precipitation dataset of the U.S.Climate Prediction Center(CPC),the changing trend of summer precipitation in North China(3...Based on the reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)and the precipitation dataset of the U.S.Climate Prediction Center(CPC),the changing trend of summer precipitation in North China(35°-40°N,110°-125°E)during 1979-2020 was studied.By calculating the monthly climatic precipitation in North China,it is found that precipitation was mainly distributed from June to August,so the trend of precipitation in North China from June to August was mainly analyzed.Firstly,the five-point moving average of regional mean precipitation in North China from June to August during 1979-2020 was conducted.It is found that the fitting curve of the five-point sliding average was basically consistent with the changing trend of regional precipitation,and it showed a certain upward trend.Secondly,the cumulative anomaly of regional average summer precipitation in North China showed a significant upward trend after 2005,which was similar to the moving average result,indicating that the precipitation in the later period increased compared with the earlier period.The changing trend of summer precipitation in North China in the past 42 years was analyzed,and the results show that precipitation showed a significant increasing trend in most areas of North China,so that regional average precipitation also tended to increase significantly.By comparing the precipitation in the past five years(2016-2020)and the last 36 years(1979-2015),it is found that the increase of summer precipitation in North China was more obvious,so the reasons for the increase in precipitation were further analyzed.Since the occurrence of precipitation requires favorable thermal dynamic conditions,the one-dimensional linear regression of water vapor content at 850 hPa and meridional wind speed was conduced,and it is found that the two variables tended to increase obviously,which was consistent with the increasing trend of precipitation.Seen from both the results of regional average and the spatial distribution of trends,the lower atmospheric water vapor content and wind speed showed a significant positive trend,which led to the increase of summer precipitation.Therefore,it can be concluded that there was a certain changing trend of summer precipitation in North China in the past 42 years,which can provide certain reference for the future forecast of summer precipitation in North China.展开更多
[Objective] The changes trend of temperature and frost-free period in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Method] According to the climate data of Xingtai City and Nangong County in 1958-2010,the changes trend of...[Objective] The changes trend of temperature and frost-free period in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Method] According to the climate data of Xingtai City and Nangong County in 1958-2010,the changes trend of the temperature,the first and the last frost day,and the frost-free days in Xingtai were studied.The characteristics of the changes of temperature and frost-free days in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Result] No matter in city or countryside,the annual average temperature was increasing.The climate tendency rates in Xingtai and Nangong were about 0.5 and 0.2 ℃/10 a respectively.Especially,since 1996,the annual average temperature increasing trend was about 1.0 ℃/10 a.The average temperature of the four seasons was also climbing and was similar to the increasing span of the annual average temperature.The annual average temperature increasing span was the largest in winter.And the increase of the annual average temperature in winter was the largest and the increase of the annual average temperature was caused by the increase of the average temperature in winter.The urban annual average temperature was obviously higher than that of the countryside,which reflected the characteristics of tropical island effect.No matter in the city or the countryside,the early frost day,final frost day and frost-free day showed same tendency,namely,the delay of early frost day,advance of final-frost day,extension of frost-free day;the day of urban early frost was late than that of the countryside,and the final frost day was earlier than that of the countryside,the frost-free days were longer than that of countryside and indirectly influenced by urban heat effect.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the development and application of thermal resources in Xingtai.展开更多
This study was conducted to examine the worldwide interest in the clean energy industry and to make recommendations for the development of this industry. The authors conducted a survey and research using Internet open...This study was conducted to examine the worldwide interest in the clean energy industry and to make recommendations for the development of this industry. The authors conducted a survey and research using Internet open source data in informatics methods to produce relevant results to support the depth of related work. Based on the valid findings, a discussion is carried out to give suggestions for the development of the clean energy industry in China at several levels.展开更多
The aim of this study is to establish the prevailing conditions of changing climatic trends and change point dates in four selected meteorological stations of Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri in the Niger Delta re...The aim of this study is to establish the prevailing conditions of changing climatic trends and change point dates in four selected meteorological stations of Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Using daily or 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) data with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the modified Chowdury Indian Meteorological Department (MCIMD) models were adopted to downscale the time series data. Mann-Kendall (MK) trend and Sen’s Slope Estimator (SSE) test showed a statistically significant trend for Uyo and Benin, while Port Harcourt and Warri showed mild trends. The Sen’s Slope magnitude and variation rate were 21.6, 10.8, 6.00 and 4.4 mm/decade, respectively. The trend change-point analysis showed the initial rainfall change-point dates as 2002, 2005, 1988, and 2000 for Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri, respectively. These prove positive changing climatic conditions for rainfall in the study area. Erosion and flood control facilities analysis and design in the Niger Delta will require the application of Non-stationary IDF modelling.展开更多
2006 is the commencing year of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, and also the fifth anniversary of China joining the World Trade Organization. After the development of the trans...2006 is the commencing year of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, and also the fifth anniversary of China joining the World Trade Organization. After the development of the transition period in these years, China’s national economy has successfully inte grated into the global system. National economy remains de- veloping at a high speed. The total amount of import and export reached more than 1.4 trillion USD,展开更多
Static Poisson’s ratio(vs)is crucial for determining geomechanical properties in petroleum applications,namely sand production.Some models have been used to predict vs;however,the published models were limited to spe...Static Poisson’s ratio(vs)is crucial for determining geomechanical properties in petroleum applications,namely sand production.Some models have been used to predict vs;however,the published models were limited to specific data ranges with an average absolute percentage relative error(AAPRE)of more than 10%.The published gated recurrent unit(GRU)models do not consider trend analysis to show physical behaviors.In this study,we aim to develop a GRU model using trend analysis and three inputs for predicting n s based on a broad range of data,n s(value of 0.1627-0.4492),bulk formation density(RHOB)(0.315-2.994 g/mL),compressional time(DTc)(44.43-186.9 μs/ft),and shear time(DTs)(72.9-341.2μ s/ft).The GRU model was evaluated using different approaches,including statistical error an-alyses.The GRU model showed the proper trends,and the model data ranges were wider than previous ones.The GRU model has the largest correlation coefficient(R)of 0.967 and the lowest AAPRE,average percent relative error(APRE),root mean square error(RMSE),and standard deviation(SD)of 3.228%,1.054%,4.389,and 0.013,respectively,compared to other models.The GRU model has a high accuracy for the different datasets:training,validation,testing,and the whole datasets with R and AAPRE values were 0.981 and 2.601%,0.966 and 3.274%,0.967 and 3.228%,and 0.977 and 2.861%,respectively.The group error analyses of all inputs show that the GRU model has less than 5% AAPRE for all input ranges,which is superior to other models that have different AAPRE values of more than 10% at various ranges of inputs.展开更多
The characteristics of the temperature variation in Baoji City were analyzed with the temperature data from 1952 to 2003.The results showed that the value of annual average temperature and seasonal average temperature...The characteristics of the temperature variation in Baoji City were analyzed with the temperature data from 1952 to 2003.The results showed that the value of annual average temperature and seasonal average temperature wavily rose before 1980 and obviously ascended after 1980.During the period of last 52 years,there was a process of ascent-descent-ascent in summer seasonal temperature variation.While in autumn and winter,the temperature decreased at first and then increased.The steady ascent of the temperature in summer season had a great contribution to the increment of its average temperature.The type of the variation trend in the average temperature in Baoji in recent 52 years was verified according to the results.展开更多
Climate change and human activities such as overgrazing and rapid development of tourism simultaneously affected the vegetation of the Zoige Plateau.However,the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and the relative...Climate change and human activities such as overgrazing and rapid development of tourism simultaneously affected the vegetation of the Zoige Plateau.However,the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to these vegetation dynamics remain unclear.Therefore,clarifying how and why the vegetation on the Zoige Plateau changed can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of the region.Here,we investigate NDVI trends using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation greenness and distinguish the relative effects of climate changes and human activities on vegetation changes by utilizing residual trend analysis and the Geodetector.We find a tendency of vegetation greening from 2001 to 2020,with significant greening accounting for 21.44%of the entire region.However,browning area expanded rapidly after 2011.Warmer temperatures are the primary driver of vegetation changes in the Zoige Plateau.Climatic variations and human activities were responsible for 65.57%and 34.43%of vegetation greening,and 39.14%and 60.86%of vegetation browning,respectively,with browning concentrated along the Yellow,Black and White Rivers.Compared to 2001-2010,the inhibitory effect of human activity and climate fluctuations on vegetation grew dramatically between 2011 and 2020.展开更多
The Three-River Source Region(TRSR)in China holds a vital position and exhibits an irreplaceable strategic importance in ecological preservation at the national level.On the basis of an in-depth study of the vegetatio...The Three-River Source Region(TRSR)in China holds a vital position and exhibits an irreplaceable strategic importance in ecological preservation at the national level.On the basis of an in-depth study of the vegetation evolution in the TRSR from 2000 to 2022,we conducted a detailed analysis of the feedback mechanism of vegetation growth to climate change and human activity for different vegetation types.During the growing season,the spatiotemporal variations of normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)for different vegetation types in the TRSR were analyzed using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)-NDVI data and meteorological data from 2000 to 2022.In addition,the response characteristics of vegetation to temperature,precipitation,and human activity were assessed using trend analysis,partial correlation analysis,and residual analysis.Results indicated that,after in-depth research,from 2000 to 2022,the TRSR's average NDVI during the growing season was 0.3482.The preliminary ranking of the average NDVI for different vegetation types was as follows:shrubland(0.5762)>forest(0.5443)>meadow(0.4219)>highland vegetation(0.2223)>steppe(0.2159).The NDVI during the growing season exhibited a fluctuating growth trend,with an average growth rate of 0.0018/10a(P<0.01).Notably,forests displayed a significant development trend throughout the growing season,possessing the fastest rate of change in NDVI(0.0028/10a).Moreover,the upward trends in NDVI for forests and steppes exhibited extensive spatial distributions,with significant increases accounting for 95.23%and 93.80%,respectively.The sensitivity to precipitation was significantly enhanced in other vegetation types other than highland vegetation.By contrast,steppes,meadows,and highland vegetation demonstrated relatively high vulnerability to temperature fluctuations.A further detailed analysis revealed that climate change had a significant positive impact on the TRSR from 2000 to 2022,particularly in its northwestern areas,accounting for 85.05%of the total area.Meanwhile,human activity played a notable positive role in the southwestern and southeastern areas of the TRSR,covering 62.65%of the total area.Therefore,climate change had a significantly higher impact on NDVI during the growing season in the TRSR than human activity.展开更多
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)plays a significant role in morbidity,mortality,and economic cost in the Belt and Road Initiative(“B and R”)countries.In addition,these countries have a substantial consumption of pr...BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)plays a significant role in morbidity,mortality,and economic cost in the Belt and Road Initiative(“B and R”)countries.In addition,these countries have a substantial consumption of processed meat.However,the burden and trend of CRC in relation to the consumption of a diet high in processed meat(DHPM-CRC)in these“B and R”countries remain unknown.AIM To analyze the burden and trend of DHPM-CRC in the“B and R”countries from 1990 to 2019.METHODS We used the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study to collate information regarding the burden of DHPM-CRC.Numbers and age-standardized rates(ASRs)of deaths along with the disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)were determined among the“B and R”countries in 1990 and 2019.Using joinpoint regression analysis,the average annual percent change(AAPC)was used to analyze the temporal trends of age-standardized DALYs rate(ASDALR)from 1990 to 2019 and in the final decade(2010–2019).RESULTS We found geographical differences in the burden of DHPM-CRC among“B and R”countries,with the three highest-ranking countries being the Russian Federation,China,and Ukraine in 1990,and China,the Russian Federation,and Poland in 2019.The burden of DHPM-CRC generally increased in most member countries from 1990 to 2019(all P<0.05).The absolute number of deaths and DALYs in DHPM-CRC were 3151.15[95%uncertainty interval(UI)665.74-5696.64]and 83249.31(95%UI 15628.64-151956.31)in China in 2019.However,the number of deaths(2627.57-2528.51)and DALYs(65867.39-55378.65)for DHPM-CRC in the Russian Federation has declined.The fastest increase in ASDALR for DHPM-CRC was observed in Vietnam,Southeast Asia,with an AAPC value of 3.90%[95%confidence interval(CI):3.63%-4.16%],whereas the fastest decline was observed in Kyrgyzstan,Central Asia,with an AAPC value of-2.05%(95%CI:-2.37%to-1.73%).A substantial upward trend in ASR of mortality,years lived with disability,years of life lost,and DALYs from DHPM-CRC changes in 1990-2019 and the final decade(2010-2019)for most Maritime Silk Route members in East Asia,South Asia,Southeast Asia,North Africa,and the Middle East,as well as Central Europe,while those of the most Land Silk Route members in Central Asia and Eastern Europe have decreased markedly(all P<0.05).The ASDALR for DHPM-CRC increased more in males than in females(all P<0.05).For those aged 50-74 years,the ASDALR for DHPM-CRC in 40 members exhibited an increasing trend,except for 20 members,including 7 members in Central Asia,Maldives,and 12 high or high-middle social development index(SDI)members in other regions(all P<0.05).CONCLUSION The burden of DHPM-CRC varies substantially across“B and R”countries and threatens public health.Relevant evidence-based policies and interventions tailored to the different trends of countries in SDIs or Silk Routes should be adopted to reduce the future burden of CRC in“B and R”countries via extensive collaboration.展开更多
The study investigates long-term changes in annual and seasonal rainfall patterns in the Indira Sagar Region of Madhya Pradesh, India, from 1901 to 2010. Agriculture sustainability, food supply, natural resource devel...The study investigates long-term changes in annual and seasonal rainfall patterns in the Indira Sagar Region of Madhya Pradesh, India, from 1901 to 2010. Agriculture sustainability, food supply, natural resource development, and hydropower system reliability in the region rely heavily on monsoon rainfall. Monthly rainfall data from three stations (East Nimar, Barwani, and West Nimar) were analyzed. Initially, the pre-whitening method was applied to eliminate serial correlation effects from the rainfall data series. Subsequently, statistical trends in annual and seasonal rainfall were assessed using both parametric (student-t test) and non-parametric tests [Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, and Cumulative Sum (CUSUM)]. The magnitude of the rainfall trend was determined using Theil-Sen’s slope estimator. Spatial analysis of the Mann-Kendall test on an annual basis revealed a statistically insignificant decreasing trend for Barwani and East Nimar and an increasing trend for West Nimar. On a seasonal basis, the monsoon season contributes a significant percentage (88.33%) to the total annual rainfall. The CUSUM test results indicated a shift change detection in annual rainfall data for Barwani in 1997, while shifts were observed in West and East Nimar stations in 1929. These findings offer valuable insights into regional rainfall behavior, aiding in the planning and management of water resources and ecological systems.展开更多
Based on the monthly precipitation data of 116 meteorological stations in Shandong Province during 1970-2021,standardized precipitation index(SPI)was calculated,and the methods of linear fitting,mutation test and Morl...Based on the monthly precipitation data of 116 meteorological stations in Shandong Province during 1970-2021,standardized precipitation index(SPI)was calculated,and the methods of linear fitting,mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the change trend and temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of SPI index in the past 52 years.The results show that there were more normal years in Shandong Province,and the frequency reached 38.46%.There was severe drought in the 1980s and more wet years after 2003.SPI index showed an upward trend in spring,summer and winter but a weak arid trend in autumn.In addition,intense dry weather was more frequent in summer.Spatially,the climate was normal or humid in most areas of Shandong Province.The regions with more wet years were located in the central and northeast Shandong and the peninsula,while the climate was normal in the southwest and north of Shandong.The areas with more dry years were mainly located in the northwest of Shandong Province.There was mainly local and global drought in Shandong Province,and the arid area showed a decreasing trend.In the past 52 years,Shandong Province experienced quasi-4 times of alternation between dry and wet climate.The long period of 21 a was the first main period,and the climate would be still wet in Shandong Province in the future.In terms of mutation,the climate in Shandong Province became humid after 2003,and 2003 was the mutation point.After the abrupt change,the climate changed from gradually drying to wetting.展开更多
Meteorological disasters are some of the most serious and costly natural disasters, which have larger effects on economic and social activity. Liuchun Lake is an ecotourism area in the southwest region of Zhejiang pro...Meteorological disasters are some of the most serious and costly natural disasters, which have larger effects on economic and social activity. Liuchun Lake is an ecotourism area in the southwest region of Zhejiang province, where also has experienced meteorological disasters including rainstorm and cold wave. Understanding the temporal-spatial characteristics of meteorological disasters is important for the local tourism and economic development. Based on the daily temperature and precipitation from 18 meteorological stations in the southwest of Zhejiang province during 1953-2022 and some statistical approaches, the temporal and spatial characteristics of meteorological disasters (Freezing, Rainstorm, Cold wave) are analyzed. The results indicate that 1) Rainstorm occurred frequently around the Liuchun lake, the frequency was about 8 times/a, it can also reach about 3 times/a in the other region. Freezing and cold wave (including strong cold wave and extremely cold wave) had the same spatial distribution as rainstorm, however, except for Liuchun lake, they occurred less than one time in the other regions;2) The trend of rainstorm had larger spatial difference, it increased in all the study area, but it increased more significantly around the study area than around Liuchun lake. Freezing was on the downtrend in the whole region, with 93.3% of the stations passed the 95% significant level. Cold wave also showed a declined trend, but it was insignificantly at most of the stations, only 33% of the stations passed the 90% significant level. Compared with cold wave, strong cold wave and extremely strong cold wave had weaker decline in all the regions. In general, from 1953 to 2022 rainstorm showed an increasing trend, it was the main meteorological disaster in the study area, cold wave displayed a decreasing trend, but it still occurred about 2 - 3 times/a in most regions.展开更多
This study seeks to understand long-term changes of rainfall for the Great Kei River catchment (GKRc) in South Africa for water resources management and planning. Monthly and annual rainfall time series data from 1950...This study seeks to understand long-term changes of rainfall for the Great Kei River catchment (GKRc) in South Africa for water resources management and planning. Monthly and annual rainfall time series data from 1950 to 2017 for 11 rainfall gauging stations are analyzed using various statistical methods. Data obtained from South African Weather Services (SAWS) was quality controlled to enable the use of Mann-Kendall (MK), Theil Sen’s method, Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), among others to characterise rainfall. Rainfall in the catchment is seasonal (particularly wet in spring and summer) and highly variable with a PCI of 17.2. Years which received rain above and below the mean inter-annually were 46% and 54%, respectively. Seasonality trends also confirm that the GKRc has been progressively receiving less rainfall since 1950, especially in the autumn. The methods are novel in understanding historical and existing trends, variability and characteristics that control freshwater availability in this catchment.展开更多
There are 71 surface sediment samples collected from the eastern Beibu Gulf. The moment parameters (i.e. mean size, sorting and skewness) were obtained after applying grain size analysis. The geostatistical analysis...There are 71 surface sediment samples collected from the eastern Beibu Gulf. The moment parameters (i.e. mean size, sorting and skewness) were obtained after applying grain size analysis. The geostatistical analysis was then applied to study the spatial autocorrelation for these parameters; while range, a parameter in the semivariogram that meters the scale of spatial autocorrelation, was estimated. The results indicated that the range for sorting coefficient was physically meaningful. The trend vectors calculated from grain size trend analysis model were consistent with the annual ocean circulation patterns and sediment transport rates according to previous studies. Therefore the range derived from the semivariogram of mean size can be used as the characteristic distance in the grain size trend analysis, which may remove the bias caused by the traditional way of basing on experiences or testing methods to get the characteristic distance. Hence the results from geostatistical analysis can also offer useful information for the determination of sediment sampling density in the future field work.展开更多
In the past 30 years,signed directed graph(SDG) ,one of the qualitative simulation technologies,has been widely applied for chemical fault diagnosis.However,SDG based fault diagnosis,as any other qualitative method,ha...In the past 30 years,signed directed graph(SDG) ,one of the qualitative simulation technologies,has been widely applied for chemical fault diagnosis.However,SDG based fault diagnosis,as any other qualitative method,has poor diagnostic resolution.In this paper,a new method that combines SDG with qualitative trend analysis(QTA) is presented to improve the resolution.In the method,a bidirectional inference algorithm based on assumption and verification is used to find all the possible fault causes and their corresponding consistent paths in the SDG model.Then an improved QTA algorithm is used to extract and analyze the trends of nodes on the consis-tent paths found in the previous step.New consistency rules based on qualitative trends are used to find the real causes from the candidate causes.The resolution can be improved.This method combines the completeness feature of SDG with the good diagnostic resolution feature of QTA.The implementation of SDG-QTA based fault diagno-sis is done using the integrated SDG modeling,inference and post-processing software platform.Its application is illustrated on an atmospheric distillation tower unit of a simulation platform.The result shows its good applicability and efficiency.展开更多
Changes in vegetation phenology are key indicators of the response of ecosystems to climate change.Therefore,knowledge of growing seasons is essential to predict ecosystem changes,especially for regions with a fragile...Changes in vegetation phenology are key indicators of the response of ecosystems to climate change.Therefore,knowledge of growing seasons is essential to predict ecosystem changes,especially for regions with a fragile ecosystem such as the Loess Plateau.In this study,based on the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) data,we estimated and analyzed the vegetation phenology in the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2010 for the beginning,length,and end of the growing season,measuring changes in trends and their relationship to climatic factors.The results show that for 54.84% of the vegetation,the trend was an advancement of the beginning of the growing season(BGS),while for 67.64% the trend was a delay in the end of the growing season(EGS).The length of the growing season(LGS) was extended for 66.28% of the vegetation in the plateau.While the temperature is important for the vegetation to begin the growing season in this region,warmer climate may lead to drought and can become a limiting factor for vegetation growth.We found that increasedprecipitation benefits the advancement of the BGS in this area.Areas with a delayed EGS indicated that the appropriate temperature and rainfall in autumn or winter enhanced photosynthesis and extended the growth process.A positive correlation with precipitation was found for 76.53% of the areas with an extended LGS,indicating that precipitation is one of the key factors in changes in the vegetation phenology in this water-limited region.Precipitation plays an important role in determining the phenological activities of the vegetation in arid and semiarid areas,such as the Loess Plateau.The extended growing season will significantly influence both the vegetation productivity and the carbon fixation capacity in this region.展开更多
Trends in temperature and precipitation extremes from 1961 to 2008 have been investigated over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, China using daily temperature and precipitation data of 63 meteorological stations. The re- suits...Trends in temperature and precipitation extremes from 1961 to 2008 have been investigated over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, China using daily temperature and precipitation data of 63 meteorological stations. The re- suits show that at most stations, there is a significant increase in the annual frequency of warm days and warm nights, as well as a significant decrease in the annual frequency of cold days, cold nights, frost days, and annual diurnal tem- perature range (DTR). Their regional averaged changes are 2.06 d/1 0yr, 3.95 d/10yr, -1.88 d/10yr, -4.27 d/10yr, -4.21 d/10yr and -0.20℃/10yr, respectively. Seasonal changes display similar patterns to the annual results, but there is a large seasonal difference. A significant warming trend is detected at both annual and seasonal scales, which is more contributed by changes of indices defined by daily minimum temperature than those defined by daily maximum tem- perature. For precipitation indices, the regional annual extreme precipitation displays a weak decrease in terms of magnitude and frequency, i.e. extreme precipitation days (RD95p), intensity (RINTEN), proportion (RPROP) and maximum consecutive wet days (CWD), but a slight increase in the maximum consecutive dry days (CDD), which are consistent with changes of annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT). Seasonally, PRCPTOT and RD95p both exhibit an increase in spring and a decrease in other seasons with the largest decrease in summer, but generally not significant. In summary, this study shows a pronounced warming tendency at the less rainy period over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, which may affect regional economic development and ecological protection to some extent.展开更多
文摘The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.
文摘Based on the reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)and the precipitation dataset of the U.S.Climate Prediction Center(CPC),the changing trend of summer precipitation in North China(35°-40°N,110°-125°E)during 1979-2020 was studied.By calculating the monthly climatic precipitation in North China,it is found that precipitation was mainly distributed from June to August,so the trend of precipitation in North China from June to August was mainly analyzed.Firstly,the five-point moving average of regional mean precipitation in North China from June to August during 1979-2020 was conducted.It is found that the fitting curve of the five-point sliding average was basically consistent with the changing trend of regional precipitation,and it showed a certain upward trend.Secondly,the cumulative anomaly of regional average summer precipitation in North China showed a significant upward trend after 2005,which was similar to the moving average result,indicating that the precipitation in the later period increased compared with the earlier period.The changing trend of summer precipitation in North China in the past 42 years was analyzed,and the results show that precipitation showed a significant increasing trend in most areas of North China,so that regional average precipitation also tended to increase significantly.By comparing the precipitation in the past five years(2016-2020)and the last 36 years(1979-2015),it is found that the increase of summer precipitation in North China was more obvious,so the reasons for the increase in precipitation were further analyzed.Since the occurrence of precipitation requires favorable thermal dynamic conditions,the one-dimensional linear regression of water vapor content at 850 hPa and meridional wind speed was conduced,and it is found that the two variables tended to increase obviously,which was consistent with the increasing trend of precipitation.Seen from both the results of regional average and the spatial distribution of trends,the lower atmospheric water vapor content and wind speed showed a significant positive trend,which led to the increase of summer precipitation.Therefore,it can be concluded that there was a certain changing trend of summer precipitation in North China in the past 42 years,which can provide certain reference for the future forecast of summer precipitation in North China.
文摘[Objective] The changes trend of temperature and frost-free period in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Method] According to the climate data of Xingtai City and Nangong County in 1958-2010,the changes trend of the temperature,the first and the last frost day,and the frost-free days in Xingtai were studied.The characteristics of the changes of temperature and frost-free days in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Result] No matter in city or countryside,the annual average temperature was increasing.The climate tendency rates in Xingtai and Nangong were about 0.5 and 0.2 ℃/10 a respectively.Especially,since 1996,the annual average temperature increasing trend was about 1.0 ℃/10 a.The average temperature of the four seasons was also climbing and was similar to the increasing span of the annual average temperature.The annual average temperature increasing span was the largest in winter.And the increase of the annual average temperature in winter was the largest and the increase of the annual average temperature was caused by the increase of the average temperature in winter.The urban annual average temperature was obviously higher than that of the countryside,which reflected the characteristics of tropical island effect.No matter in the city or the countryside,the early frost day,final frost day and frost-free day showed same tendency,namely,the delay of early frost day,advance of final-frost day,extension of frost-free day;the day of urban early frost was late than that of the countryside,and the final frost day was earlier than that of the countryside,the frost-free days were longer than that of countryside and indirectly influenced by urban heat effect.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the development and application of thermal resources in Xingtai.
文摘This study was conducted to examine the worldwide interest in the clean energy industry and to make recommendations for the development of this industry. The authors conducted a survey and research using Internet open source data in informatics methods to produce relevant results to support the depth of related work. Based on the valid findings, a discussion is carried out to give suggestions for the development of the clean energy industry in China at several levels.
文摘The aim of this study is to establish the prevailing conditions of changing climatic trends and change point dates in four selected meteorological stations of Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Using daily or 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) data with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the modified Chowdury Indian Meteorological Department (MCIMD) models were adopted to downscale the time series data. Mann-Kendall (MK) trend and Sen’s Slope Estimator (SSE) test showed a statistically significant trend for Uyo and Benin, while Port Harcourt and Warri showed mild trends. The Sen’s Slope magnitude and variation rate were 21.6, 10.8, 6.00 and 4.4 mm/decade, respectively. The trend change-point analysis showed the initial rainfall change-point dates as 2002, 2005, 1988, and 2000 for Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri, respectively. These prove positive changing climatic conditions for rainfall in the study area. Erosion and flood control facilities analysis and design in the Niger Delta will require the application of Non-stationary IDF modelling.
文摘2006 is the commencing year of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, and also the fifth anniversary of China joining the World Trade Organization. After the development of the transition period in these years, China’s national economy has successfully inte grated into the global system. National economy remains de- veloping at a high speed. The total amount of import and export reached more than 1.4 trillion USD,
基金The authors thank the Yayasan Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS(YUTP FRG Grant No.015LC0-428)at Universiti Teknologi PETRO-NAS for supporting this study.
文摘Static Poisson’s ratio(vs)is crucial for determining geomechanical properties in petroleum applications,namely sand production.Some models have been used to predict vs;however,the published models were limited to specific data ranges with an average absolute percentage relative error(AAPRE)of more than 10%.The published gated recurrent unit(GRU)models do not consider trend analysis to show physical behaviors.In this study,we aim to develop a GRU model using trend analysis and three inputs for predicting n s based on a broad range of data,n s(value of 0.1627-0.4492),bulk formation density(RHOB)(0.315-2.994 g/mL),compressional time(DTc)(44.43-186.9 μs/ft),and shear time(DTs)(72.9-341.2μ s/ft).The GRU model was evaluated using different approaches,including statistical error an-alyses.The GRU model showed the proper trends,and the model data ranges were wider than previous ones.The GRU model has the largest correlation coefficient(R)of 0.967 and the lowest AAPRE,average percent relative error(APRE),root mean square error(RMSE),and standard deviation(SD)of 3.228%,1.054%,4.389,and 0.013,respectively,compared to other models.The GRU model has a high accuracy for the different datasets:training,validation,testing,and the whole datasets with R and AAPRE values were 0.981 and 2.601%,0.966 and 3.274%,0.967 and 3.228%,and 0.977 and 2.861%,respectively.The group error analyses of all inputs show that the GRU model has less than 5% AAPRE for all input ranges,which is superior to other models that have different AAPRE values of more than 10% at various ranges of inputs.
基金Supported by Fund of Teacher Education Innovation Platform in Southwest University
文摘The characteristics of the temperature variation in Baoji City were analyzed with the temperature data from 1952 to 2003.The results showed that the value of annual average temperature and seasonal average temperature wavily rose before 1980 and obviously ascended after 1980.During the period of last 52 years,there was a process of ascent-descent-ascent in summer seasonal temperature variation.While in autumn and winter,the temperature decreased at first and then increased.The steady ascent of the temperature in summer season had a great contribution to the increment of its average temperature.The type of the variation trend in the average temperature in Baoji in recent 52 years was verified according to the results.
基金partially financed by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42201439)Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Provincial Department of Science and Technology(Grant No.2022NSFSC1082)Key Laboratory of Smart Earth(No.KF2023YB02-12).
文摘Climate change and human activities such as overgrazing and rapid development of tourism simultaneously affected the vegetation of the Zoige Plateau.However,the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to these vegetation dynamics remain unclear.Therefore,clarifying how and why the vegetation on the Zoige Plateau changed can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of the region.Here,we investigate NDVI trends using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation greenness and distinguish the relative effects of climate changes and human activities on vegetation changes by utilizing residual trend analysis and the Geodetector.We find a tendency of vegetation greening from 2001 to 2020,with significant greening accounting for 21.44%of the entire region.However,browning area expanded rapidly after 2011.Warmer temperatures are the primary driver of vegetation changes in the Zoige Plateau.Climatic variations and human activities were responsible for 65.57%and 34.43%of vegetation greening,and 39.14%and 60.86%of vegetation browning,respectively,with browning concentrated along the Yellow,Black and White Rivers.Compared to 2001-2010,the inhibitory effect of human activity and climate fluctuations on vegetation grew dramatically between 2011 and 2020.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42377472, 42174055)the Jiangxi Provincial Social Science "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" (2024) Fund Project (24GL45)+1 种基金the Research Center of Resource and Environment Economics (20RGL01)the Provincial Finance Project of Jiangxi Academy of Sciences-Young Talent Cultivation Program (2023YSBG50010)
文摘The Three-River Source Region(TRSR)in China holds a vital position and exhibits an irreplaceable strategic importance in ecological preservation at the national level.On the basis of an in-depth study of the vegetation evolution in the TRSR from 2000 to 2022,we conducted a detailed analysis of the feedback mechanism of vegetation growth to climate change and human activity for different vegetation types.During the growing season,the spatiotemporal variations of normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)for different vegetation types in the TRSR were analyzed using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)-NDVI data and meteorological data from 2000 to 2022.In addition,the response characteristics of vegetation to temperature,precipitation,and human activity were assessed using trend analysis,partial correlation analysis,and residual analysis.Results indicated that,after in-depth research,from 2000 to 2022,the TRSR's average NDVI during the growing season was 0.3482.The preliminary ranking of the average NDVI for different vegetation types was as follows:shrubland(0.5762)>forest(0.5443)>meadow(0.4219)>highland vegetation(0.2223)>steppe(0.2159).The NDVI during the growing season exhibited a fluctuating growth trend,with an average growth rate of 0.0018/10a(P<0.01).Notably,forests displayed a significant development trend throughout the growing season,possessing the fastest rate of change in NDVI(0.0028/10a).Moreover,the upward trends in NDVI for forests and steppes exhibited extensive spatial distributions,with significant increases accounting for 95.23%and 93.80%,respectively.The sensitivity to precipitation was significantly enhanced in other vegetation types other than highland vegetation.By contrast,steppes,meadows,and highland vegetation demonstrated relatively high vulnerability to temperature fluctuations.A further detailed analysis revealed that climate change had a significant positive impact on the TRSR from 2000 to 2022,particularly in its northwestern areas,accounting for 85.05%of the total area.Meanwhile,human activity played a notable positive role in the southwestern and southeastern areas of the TRSR,covering 62.65%of the total area.Therefore,climate change had a significantly higher impact on NDVI during the growing season in the TRSR than human activity.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.82260532,and No.32060208.
文摘BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)plays a significant role in morbidity,mortality,and economic cost in the Belt and Road Initiative(“B and R”)countries.In addition,these countries have a substantial consumption of processed meat.However,the burden and trend of CRC in relation to the consumption of a diet high in processed meat(DHPM-CRC)in these“B and R”countries remain unknown.AIM To analyze the burden and trend of DHPM-CRC in the“B and R”countries from 1990 to 2019.METHODS We used the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study to collate information regarding the burden of DHPM-CRC.Numbers and age-standardized rates(ASRs)of deaths along with the disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)were determined among the“B and R”countries in 1990 and 2019.Using joinpoint regression analysis,the average annual percent change(AAPC)was used to analyze the temporal trends of age-standardized DALYs rate(ASDALR)from 1990 to 2019 and in the final decade(2010–2019).RESULTS We found geographical differences in the burden of DHPM-CRC among“B and R”countries,with the three highest-ranking countries being the Russian Federation,China,and Ukraine in 1990,and China,the Russian Federation,and Poland in 2019.The burden of DHPM-CRC generally increased in most member countries from 1990 to 2019(all P<0.05).The absolute number of deaths and DALYs in DHPM-CRC were 3151.15[95%uncertainty interval(UI)665.74-5696.64]and 83249.31(95%UI 15628.64-151956.31)in China in 2019.However,the number of deaths(2627.57-2528.51)and DALYs(65867.39-55378.65)for DHPM-CRC in the Russian Federation has declined.The fastest increase in ASDALR for DHPM-CRC was observed in Vietnam,Southeast Asia,with an AAPC value of 3.90%[95%confidence interval(CI):3.63%-4.16%],whereas the fastest decline was observed in Kyrgyzstan,Central Asia,with an AAPC value of-2.05%(95%CI:-2.37%to-1.73%).A substantial upward trend in ASR of mortality,years lived with disability,years of life lost,and DALYs from DHPM-CRC changes in 1990-2019 and the final decade(2010-2019)for most Maritime Silk Route members in East Asia,South Asia,Southeast Asia,North Africa,and the Middle East,as well as Central Europe,while those of the most Land Silk Route members in Central Asia and Eastern Europe have decreased markedly(all P<0.05).The ASDALR for DHPM-CRC increased more in males than in females(all P<0.05).For those aged 50-74 years,the ASDALR for DHPM-CRC in 40 members exhibited an increasing trend,except for 20 members,including 7 members in Central Asia,Maldives,and 12 high or high-middle social development index(SDI)members in other regions(all P<0.05).CONCLUSION The burden of DHPM-CRC varies substantially across“B and R”countries and threatens public health.Relevant evidence-based policies and interventions tailored to the different trends of countries in SDIs or Silk Routes should be adopted to reduce the future burden of CRC in“B and R”countries via extensive collaboration.
文摘The study investigates long-term changes in annual and seasonal rainfall patterns in the Indira Sagar Region of Madhya Pradesh, India, from 1901 to 2010. Agriculture sustainability, food supply, natural resource development, and hydropower system reliability in the region rely heavily on monsoon rainfall. Monthly rainfall data from three stations (East Nimar, Barwani, and West Nimar) were analyzed. Initially, the pre-whitening method was applied to eliminate serial correlation effects from the rainfall data series. Subsequently, statistical trends in annual and seasonal rainfall were assessed using both parametric (student-t test) and non-parametric tests [Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, and Cumulative Sum (CUSUM)]. The magnitude of the rainfall trend was determined using Theil-Sen’s slope estimator. Spatial analysis of the Mann-Kendall test on an annual basis revealed a statistically insignificant decreasing trend for Barwani and East Nimar and an increasing trend for West Nimar. On a seasonal basis, the monsoon season contributes a significant percentage (88.33%) to the total annual rainfall. The CUSUM test results indicated a shift change detection in annual rainfall data for Barwani in 1997, while shifts were observed in West and East Nimar stations in 1929. These findings offer valuable insights into regional rainfall behavior, aiding in the planning and management of water resources and ecological systems.
基金Supported by the Special Project for the Grass-roots Units of Shandong Meteorological Bureau(2023SDJC14).
文摘Based on the monthly precipitation data of 116 meteorological stations in Shandong Province during 1970-2021,standardized precipitation index(SPI)was calculated,and the methods of linear fitting,mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the change trend and temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of SPI index in the past 52 years.The results show that there were more normal years in Shandong Province,and the frequency reached 38.46%.There was severe drought in the 1980s and more wet years after 2003.SPI index showed an upward trend in spring,summer and winter but a weak arid trend in autumn.In addition,intense dry weather was more frequent in summer.Spatially,the climate was normal or humid in most areas of Shandong Province.The regions with more wet years were located in the central and northeast Shandong and the peninsula,while the climate was normal in the southwest and north of Shandong.The areas with more dry years were mainly located in the northwest of Shandong Province.There was mainly local and global drought in Shandong Province,and the arid area showed a decreasing trend.In the past 52 years,Shandong Province experienced quasi-4 times of alternation between dry and wet climate.The long period of 21 a was the first main period,and the climate would be still wet in Shandong Province in the future.In terms of mutation,the climate in Shandong Province became humid after 2003,and 2003 was the mutation point.After the abrupt change,the climate changed from gradually drying to wetting.
文摘Meteorological disasters are some of the most serious and costly natural disasters, which have larger effects on economic and social activity. Liuchun Lake is an ecotourism area in the southwest region of Zhejiang province, where also has experienced meteorological disasters including rainstorm and cold wave. Understanding the temporal-spatial characteristics of meteorological disasters is important for the local tourism and economic development. Based on the daily temperature and precipitation from 18 meteorological stations in the southwest of Zhejiang province during 1953-2022 and some statistical approaches, the temporal and spatial characteristics of meteorological disasters (Freezing, Rainstorm, Cold wave) are analyzed. The results indicate that 1) Rainstorm occurred frequently around the Liuchun lake, the frequency was about 8 times/a, it can also reach about 3 times/a in the other region. Freezing and cold wave (including strong cold wave and extremely cold wave) had the same spatial distribution as rainstorm, however, except for Liuchun lake, they occurred less than one time in the other regions;2) The trend of rainstorm had larger spatial difference, it increased in all the study area, but it increased more significantly around the study area than around Liuchun lake. Freezing was on the downtrend in the whole region, with 93.3% of the stations passed the 95% significant level. Cold wave also showed a declined trend, but it was insignificantly at most of the stations, only 33% of the stations passed the 90% significant level. Compared with cold wave, strong cold wave and extremely strong cold wave had weaker decline in all the regions. In general, from 1953 to 2022 rainstorm showed an increasing trend, it was the main meteorological disaster in the study area, cold wave displayed a decreasing trend, but it still occurred about 2 - 3 times/a in most regions.
文摘This study seeks to understand long-term changes of rainfall for the Great Kei River catchment (GKRc) in South Africa for water resources management and planning. Monthly and annual rainfall time series data from 1950 to 2017 for 11 rainfall gauging stations are analyzed using various statistical methods. Data obtained from South African Weather Services (SAWS) was quality controlled to enable the use of Mann-Kendall (MK), Theil Sen’s method, Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), among others to characterise rainfall. Rainfall in the catchment is seasonal (particularly wet in spring and summer) and highly variable with a PCI of 17.2. Years which received rain above and below the mean inter-annually were 46% and 54%, respectively. Seasonality trends also confirm that the GKRc has been progressively receiving less rainfall since 1950, especially in the autumn. The methods are novel in understanding historical and existing trends, variability and characteristics that control freshwater availability in this catchment.
基金Chinese Offshore Investigation and Assessment Project, No.908-01-ST09 State Student Innovation Training Project, No.SIT-05+1 种基金 Program for New Century Excellent Talents, No.NCET-06-0446 National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.J0630535 Acknowledgement The research vessel Experiment 2 (South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences) performed the field survey and Prof. Lizhe Cai and his colleagues help to collect the sediment samples. Prof. Shu Gao and Asso. Prof. Yongzhan Zhang have provided a lot of support and valuable suggestions for this study. Miss Xiaoqin Du helped with sediment transportation and Mr. Fengyang Min assisted in the operation of related software. The comments from Dr. M. Xia (Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, NOAA, USA) have improved a lot in the presentation of the paper.
文摘There are 71 surface sediment samples collected from the eastern Beibu Gulf. The moment parameters (i.e. mean size, sorting and skewness) were obtained after applying grain size analysis. The geostatistical analysis was then applied to study the spatial autocorrelation for these parameters; while range, a parameter in the semivariogram that meters the scale of spatial autocorrelation, was estimated. The results indicated that the range for sorting coefficient was physically meaningful. The trend vectors calculated from grain size trend analysis model were consistent with the annual ocean circulation patterns and sediment transport rates according to previous studies. Therefore the range derived from the semivariogram of mean size can be used as the characteristic distance in the grain size trend analysis, which may remove the bias caused by the traditional way of basing on experiences or testing methods to get the characteristic distance. Hence the results from geostatistical analysis can also offer useful information for the determination of sediment sampling density in the future field work.
基金Supported by the Science and Technological Tackling Project of Heilongjiang Province(GB06A106)
文摘In the past 30 years,signed directed graph(SDG) ,one of the qualitative simulation technologies,has been widely applied for chemical fault diagnosis.However,SDG based fault diagnosis,as any other qualitative method,has poor diagnostic resolution.In this paper,a new method that combines SDG with qualitative trend analysis(QTA) is presented to improve the resolution.In the method,a bidirectional inference algorithm based on assumption and verification is used to find all the possible fault causes and their corresponding consistent paths in the SDG model.Then an improved QTA algorithm is used to extract and analyze the trends of nodes on the consis-tent paths found in the previous step.New consistency rules based on qualitative trends are used to find the real causes from the candidate causes.The resolution can be improved.This method combines the completeness feature of SDG with the good diagnostic resolution feature of QTA.The implementation of SDG-QTA based fault diagno-sis is done using the integrated SDG modeling,inference and post-processing software platform.Its application is illustrated on an atmospheric distillation tower unit of a simulation platform.The result shows its good applicability and efficiency.
基金supported by the“Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change:Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues’’of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA05060104)
文摘Changes in vegetation phenology are key indicators of the response of ecosystems to climate change.Therefore,knowledge of growing seasons is essential to predict ecosystem changes,especially for regions with a fragile ecosystem such as the Loess Plateau.In this study,based on the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) data,we estimated and analyzed the vegetation phenology in the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2010 for the beginning,length,and end of the growing season,measuring changes in trends and their relationship to climatic factors.The results show that for 54.84% of the vegetation,the trend was an advancement of the beginning of the growing season(BGS),while for 67.64% the trend was a delay in the end of the growing season(EGS).The length of the growing season(LGS) was extended for 66.28% of the vegetation in the plateau.While the temperature is important for the vegetation to begin the growing season in this region,warmer climate may lead to drought and can become a limiting factor for vegetation growth.We found that increasedprecipitation benefits the advancement of the BGS in this area.Areas with a delayed EGS indicated that the appropriate temperature and rainfall in autumn or winter enhanced photosynthesis and extended the growth process.A positive correlation with precipitation was found for 76.53% of the areas with an extended LGS,indicating that precipitation is one of the key factors in changes in the vegetation phenology in this water-limited region.Precipitation plays an important role in determining the phenological activities of the vegetation in arid and semiarid areas,such as the Loess Plateau.The extended growing season will significantly influence both the vegetation productivity and the carbon fixation capacity in this region.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40901028)
文摘Trends in temperature and precipitation extremes from 1961 to 2008 have been investigated over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, China using daily temperature and precipitation data of 63 meteorological stations. The re- suits show that at most stations, there is a significant increase in the annual frequency of warm days and warm nights, as well as a significant decrease in the annual frequency of cold days, cold nights, frost days, and annual diurnal tem- perature range (DTR). Their regional averaged changes are 2.06 d/1 0yr, 3.95 d/10yr, -1.88 d/10yr, -4.27 d/10yr, -4.21 d/10yr and -0.20℃/10yr, respectively. Seasonal changes display similar patterns to the annual results, but there is a large seasonal difference. A significant warming trend is detected at both annual and seasonal scales, which is more contributed by changes of indices defined by daily minimum temperature than those defined by daily maximum tem- perature. For precipitation indices, the regional annual extreme precipitation displays a weak decrease in terms of magnitude and frequency, i.e. extreme precipitation days (RD95p), intensity (RINTEN), proportion (RPROP) and maximum consecutive wet days (CWD), but a slight increase in the maximum consecutive dry days (CDD), which are consistent with changes of annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT). Seasonally, PRCPTOT and RD95p both exhibit an increase in spring and a decrease in other seasons with the largest decrease in summer, but generally not significant. In summary, this study shows a pronounced warming tendency at the less rainy period over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, which may affect regional economic development and ecological protection to some extent.