Lost in transition： Forest transition and natural forest loss in tropical China

The term forest transition refers to a change in forest cover over a given area from a period of net forest area loss to a period of net gain. Whether transitioning from deforestation to reforestation can lead to improved ecosystem services, depends on the quality and characteristics of the newly established forest cover. Using publicly available data, we examine forest transition in two regions of tropical China: Hainan Island and Xishuangbanna. We found that the overall increase of forest cover in both areas during the1980 s was due to an increase in plantation forests rather than to increases in the area covered by natural forest. We also found a time lag between the increase in overall forest cover and an increase in natural forest. On Hainan Island, natural forest continued to decline beyond the point in time when overall forest cover had started to increase, and only began to recover ten years after the turning point in 1978. In Xishuangbanna, where the transition point occurred ten years later, the decline of natural forest cover is still going on. These divergent trends underlying forest transition are concealed by the continued practice to apply the term "forest" broadly, without distinguishing between natural forests and planted forests.Due to the use of undiscriminating terminology, the loss of natural forest may go unnoticed, increasing the risk of plantation forests displacing natural forests in the course of forest transition. Our findings are important for programs related to forest management and ecosystem services improvement, including reforestation and Payments for Ecosystem Services programs.

Influence of Human Activity Intensity on Habitat Quality in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park,China

Due to long-term human activity interference,the Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park(HTRNP)of China has experienced ecological problems such as habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss,and with the expanding scope and intensity of human activity impact,the regional ecological security is facing serious challenges.A scientific assessment of the interrelationship between human activity intensity and habitat quality in the HTRNP is a prerequisite for achieving effective management of ecological disturbances caused by human activities and can also provide scientific strategies for the sustainable development of the region.Based on the land use change data in 2000,2010,and 2020,the spatial and temporal variations and the relationship between habitat quality(HQ)and human activity intensity(HAI)in the HTRNP were explored using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs(InVEST)model.System dynamics and land use simulation models were also combined to conduct multi-scenario simulations of their relationships.The results showed that during 2000–2020,the habitat quality of the HTRNP improved,the intensity of human activities decreased each year,and there was a negative correlation between the two.Second,the system dynamic model could be well coupled with the land use simulation model by combining socio-economic and natural factors.The simulation scenarios of the coupling model showed that the harmonious development(HD)scenario is effective in curbing the increasing trend of human activity intensity and decreasing trend of habitat quality,with a weaker trade-off between the two compared with the baseline development(BD)and investment priority oriented(IPO)scenarios.To maintain the authenticity and integrity of the HTRNP,effective measures such as ecological corridor construction,ecological restoration,and the implementation of ecological compensation policies need to be strengthened.

Study on the Introduction and Screening of Cut Roses in the Tropical Coastal Area of China

[Objective] This study aimed to select suitable cultivars of cut roses with prominent comprehensive performance which is suitable for the commercial promotion in the tropical region of South Hainan Province,including Sanya and the low-altitude area.[Method] Introduction experiment and production test were designed to observe the agronomic and economic traits of cultivars in a rose resources nursery established in Sanya.[Result] Through observation in the resources garden,18 varieties were chosen to conduct the introduction experiment,of which 8 varieties were selected to accomplish the production test.The results of the production test showed that ＇Vendela＇,＇Golden Emblem＇,＇Samantha＇ and ＇Tineke＇ showed the best adaptability;the cut flower quality of ＇Carola＇,＇Black Magic＇ and ＇Golden Emblem＇ belonged to the first grade;the yield of ＇Movie Star＇,＇Golden Emblem＇ and ＇Black Magic＇ was more than one million per hm2;except ＇Golden Emblem＇,the vase life of the other seven cultivars was more than 10 days;＇Carola＇,＇My Choice＇ and ＇Perfume White＇ had better disease-and insect-resistance;＇Carola＇,＇Vendela＇,＇Rouge Meilland＇,＇Tineke＇,＇Golden Emblem＇,＇Samantha＇,＇Perfume White＇,＇Saiun＇,＇Asagumo＇ and ＇Double Delight＇ were more resistant to blackspot,while ＇Black Magic＇,＇Versilla＇,＇Alec＇s Red＇ and ＇Movie Star＇ were less resistant to blackspot.[Conclusion] Cultivars of cut roses were able to grow and develop normally in the tropical coastal area of Hainan Province,including South Hainan and Sanya,where it was appropriate for the production of cut roses.However,it is necessary to pay attention to the prevention and control of thrips and blackspot.＇Black Magic＇,＇Carola＇,＇Vendela＇,＇Rouge Meilland＇,＇Golden Emblem＇,＇Tineke＇,＇Movie Star＇ and ＇Samantha＇ showed best comprehensive performance,which were thus worthy of large-scale popularization in Hainan Province.

Contribution of South China Sea Tropical Cyclones to an Increase in Southern China Summer Rainfall Around 1993

The increase in southern China summer rainfall around 1993 was accompanied by an increase in tropical cyclones that formed in the South China Sea. This study documents the connection of these two features. Our analysis shows that the contribution of tropical cyclones that formed in the South China Sea to southern China summer rainfall experienced a significant increase around 1993, in particular, along the coast and in the heavy rain category. The number of tropical cyclones that formed in the western North Pacific and entered the South China Sea decreased, and their contribution to summer rainfall was reduced in eastern part of southern China （but statistically insignificant）. The increase in tropical cyclone-induced rainfall contributed up to -30＆ of the total rainfall increase along the coastal regions. The increase of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea appears to be related to an increase in local sea surface temperature.

Influences of Tropical Cyclones on China During 1965-2004

Using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） and China Meteorological Administration （CMA） tropical cyclone track datasets, variations in frequency and intensity of the affecting-China tropical cyclones （ACTCs） are studied for the period of 1965-2004. First, the differences between the two tropical cyclone datasets are examined. The annual frequencies of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin are reasonably consistent to each other, while the intensity records are less reliable. The annual numbers of ACTCs based on different datasets are close to each other with similar interdecadal and interannual variations. However, the maximum intensity and the annual frequency of ACTCs for strong categories show great dependence on datasets. Tropical cyclone impacts on China show the same variations as the annual number of ACTCs and also show dependence on datasets. Differences in tropical cyclone impacts on China are mainly caused by datasets used. The annual frequency of ACTCs, especially the length of lifetime of ones that make landfall, and the intensity estimates all have effects on the value of impacts on China.

Climate change trend and causes of tropical cyclones affecting the South China Sea during the past 50 years

Tropical cyclones(TCs)in the South China Sea(SCS)cause serious disasters and loss every year to the coastal and inland areas of southern China.The types of TCs are usually difficult to forecast,and studies on the understanding of the TCs affecting the SCS are lacking.In this study,the authors use the TC data during 1965–2017 from two best-track datasets to analyse the climatic characteristics in terms of the frequency,the track activity,and the influencing indexes of the TCs affecting the SCS and investigate the possible causes.The results show that,during 1965–2017,there were 535 TCs affecting the SCS,mainly occurring from June to November of each year,with the annual average frequency exhibiting a significant downward trend.Meanwhile,the frequency of the track activity in most areas of the SCS also demonstrate a remarkable decreasing trend but an increase in the Gulf of Tonkin and the Taiwan Strait.The large-scale environmental anomalous westerlies and the decrease of humidity in the mid-and low-level over the northern part of the SCS are likely the main causes for the decrease in frequency and the track activity.In addition,the analysis using the cyclone activity index shows that the influence of the before mentioned TCs in southern China gradually decreases,while the influence of TCs in the SCS show a decreasing trend during past decades.

Diagnosis of Seasonal Variations of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the South China Sea Using a Genesis Potential Index

This study examines the seasonal variations of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea (SCS) using a genesis potential (GP) index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. How different environmental factors (including low-level vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity) contribute to these variations is investigated. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for the summer and winter monsoons separately. These composites replicate the observed seasonal variations of the observed frequency and location of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS. The degree of contribution by each factor in different regions is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. Over the northern SCS, potential intensity makes the largest contributions to the seasonal variations in tropical cyclogenesis. Over the southern SCS, the low-level relative vorticity plays the primary role in the seasonal modulation of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency, and the vertical wind shear plays the secondary role. Thermodynamic factors play more important roles for the seasonal variations in tropical cyclogenesis over the northern SCS, while dynamic factors are more important in the seasonal modulation of TC genesis frequency over the southern SCS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

In this paper, the observational data from Marine and Meteorological Observation Platform （MMOP） at Bohe, Maoming and buoys located in Shanwei and Maoming are used to study the characteristics of air-sea temperature and specific humidity difference and the relationship between wind and wave with the tropical cyclones over the South China Sea （SCS）. The heat and momentum fluxes from eddy covariance measurement （EC） are compared with these fluxes calculated by the COARE 3.0 algorithm for Typhoon Koppu. The results show that at the developing and weakening stages of Koppu, both these differences between the sea surface and the near-surface atmosphere from the MMOP are negative, and data from the buoys also indicate that the differences are negative between the sea surface and near-surface atmosphere on the right rear portion of tropical cyclones （TCs） Molave and Chanthu. However, the differences are positive on the left fi＇ont portion of Molave and Chanthu. These positive differences suggest that the heat flux is transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere, thus intensifying and maintaining the two TCs. The negative differences indicate that the ocean removes heat fluxes from the atmosphere, thus weakening the TCs. The wind-wave curves of TCs Molave and Chanthu show that significant wave height increases linearly with 2-min wind speed at 10-m height when the wind speed is less than 25 m/s, but when the wind speed is greater than 25 m/s, the significant wave height increases slightly with the wind speed. By comparing the observed sensible heat, latent heat, and friction velocity from EC with these variables from COARE 3.0 algorithm, a great bias between the observed and calculated sensible heat and latent heat fluxes is revealed, and the observed friction velocity is found to be almost the same as the calculated friction velocity.

A Possible Mechanism of the Impact of Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction on the Activity of Tropical Cyclones Affecting China

In this study, tropical cyclone data from China Meteorological Administration （CMA） and the ECMWF reanalysis data for the period 1958-2001 was used to propose a possible mechanism for the impacts of air- sea interaction on the activity of tropical cyclones （TCs） affecting China. The frequency of TCs affecting China over past 40 years has trended downward, while during the same period, the air sea interaction in the two key areas of the Pacific region has significantly weakened. Our diagnoses and simulations suggest that air sea interactions in the central North Pacific tropics and subtropics （Area 1） have an important role in adjusting typhoon activities in the Northwest Pacific in general, and especially in TC activity affecting China. On the contrary, impacts of the air-sea interaction in the eastern part of the South Pacific tropics （Area 2） were found to be rather limited. As both observational analysis and modeling studies show that, in the past four decades and beyond, the weakening trend of the latent heat released from Area 1 matched well with the decreasing Northwest Pacific TC frequency derived from CMA datasets. Results also showed that the weakening trend of latent heat flux in the area was most likely due to the decreasing TC frequency over the Northwest Pacific, including those affecting China. Although our preliminary analysis revealed a possible mechanism through which the air sea interaction may adjust the genesis conditions for TCs, which eventually affect China, other relevant questions, such as how TC tracks and impacts are affected by these trends, remain unanswered. Further in-depth investigations are required.

STUDY ON CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF CHINA-INFLUENCING TROPICAL CYCLONES

Analysis of the climatic characteristics of the tropical cyclones that affect China yields several interesting features. The frequency of these tropical cyclones tended to decrease from 1951 to 2005, with the lowest frequency in the past ten years. The decrease in the frequency of super typhoons is particularly significant. The main season of tropical cyclone activities is from May to November, with an active period from July to September. There are three obvious sources of these tropical cyclones and they vary with seasons and decades. Their movement has also changed with seasons. On average, these tropical cyclones affect China for 5.6 months annually and the period of influence decreases in the past decades. An analysis of daily data indicates that the days of typhoon influence are shorter in winter and spring and longer in summer. The frequency of tropical cyclones is the largest over southeastern China, decreasing northwestward. Taiwan is the region that is affected by tropical cyclones most frequently. The average annual precipitation associated with tropical cyclones has also decreased gradually northwestward from southeastern China.

The Quaternary climate records of coral reef in the tropical zone of China

The analysis results of oxygen isotopes, carbon isotopes, geochemistry and the growth belt of reef coral etc. for some profiles of coral reef show that the basic pattern of climatic fluctuation during the Quaternary period can be reflected by coral reef. The trend of climate change was from cooling to warming during the Early Pleistocene with at least four cycles, and from warming to cooling with at least seven cycles during the Middle Pleistocene. The late Pleistocene is a period of the Quaternary which shows the most frequent variation of climate but generally two main cycles of warming-cooling can be seen. During the Holocene the climate went through a process of warming-rise in temperature-drop in temperature. During the historical period there were four cycles of cooling-warming at 1700 a BE During the last 200 years climate change is characterized by two stages; a positive deviation in the former 100 years, and a negative deviation in the latter 100 years with general warming trend.

Tropical Hainan——China’s Hawaii

BEFORE moving to China,my favorite hideaway was Hawaii,so I was delighted to learn China has its own Hawaii–southernmost Hainan Province.A Han Dynasty(206 BC-AD 220)emperor established a military garrison on Hainan Island,the largest island of Hainan Province,in 110 BC.Sun Yatsen recommended the establishment of a province in the region in 1906,but this did not happen until 1988,the year we moved to China.

A Recombination Clustering Technique for Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Tracks Based on the CMA-TRAMS Ensemble Prediction System

Despite marked improvements in tropical cyclone(TC) track ensemble forecasting,forecasters still have difficulty in making quick decisions when facing multiple potential predictions,so it is demanding to develop post-processing techniques reducing the uncertainty in TC track forecasts,and one of such techniques is the cluster-based methods.To improve the effect and efficiency of the previous cluster-based methods,this study adopts recombination clustering(RC) by optimizing the use of limited TC variables and constructing better features that can accurately capture the good TC track forecasts from the ensemble prediction system(EPS) of the China Meteorological Administration Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS).The RC technique is further optimized by constraining the number of clusters using the absolute track bias between the ensemble mean(EM) and ensemble spread(ES).Finally,the RC-based deterministic and weighted probabilistic forecasts are compared with the TC track forecasts from traditional methods.It is found that(1) for deterministic TC track forecasts,the RC-based TC track forecasts outperform all other methods at 12–72-h lead times;compared with the skillful EM(118.6 km),the improvements introduced by the use of RC reach up to 10.8%(8.1 km),10.2%(13.7 km),and 8.7%(20.5 km) at forecast times of 24,48,and 72 h,respectively.(2) For probabilistic TC track forecasts,RC yields significantly more accurate and discriminative forecasts than traditional equal-weight track forecasts,by increasing the weight of the best cluster,with a decrease of 4.1% in brier score(BS) and an increase of 1.4% in area under the relative operating characteristic curve(AUC).(3) In particular,for cases with recurved tracks,such as typhoons Saudel(2017) and Bavi(2008),RC significantly reduces track errors relative to EM by 56.0%(125.5 km) and 77.7%(192.2 km),respectively.Our results demonstrate that the RC technique not only improves TC track forecasts but also helps to unravel skillful ensemble members,and is likely useful for feature construction in machine learning.

Discussion of Some Problems as to the East Asian Subtropical Monsoon

Based on NCEP/NCAR gridded reanalysis, TRMM precipitation data, CMAP, and rainfall observations in East China, a study is conducted with focus on the timing and distinctive establishment of the rainy season of the East Asian subtropical monsoon （EASM） in relation to the South China Sea （SCS） tropical summer monsoon （SCSM）. A possible mechanism for the EASM is investigated. The results suggest that 1） the EASM rainy season begins at first over the south of the Jiangnan region to the north of South China in late March to early April （i.e., pentads 16-18）, and then the early flooding period in South China starts when southerly winds enhance and convective rainfall increases pronouncedly; 2） the establishment of the EASM rainy season is earlier than that of its counterpart, the SCSM. The EASM and the SCSM each is featured with its own independent rain belt, strong southwesterly wind, intense vertical motion, and robust low-level water vapor convergence. The SCSM interacts with the EASM, causing the EASM rainy belt to move northward. The two systems are responsible for the floods/droughts over the eastern China; and 3） in mid-late March, the eastern Asian landmass （especially the Tibetan Plateau） has its thermal condition changing from a cold to a heat source for the atmosphere. A reversal of the zonal thermal contrast and related temperature and pressure contrasts between the landmass and the western Pacific happens. The argument about whether or not the dynamic and thermal effects of the landmass really act as a mechanism for the earlier establishment of the EASM rain belt is discussed and to be further clarified. Finally, the article presents some common understandings and disagreements regarding the EASM.