A Physics-informed Deep-learning Intensity Prediction Scheme for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes involved.Here,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western North Pacific(WNP)based on a time-dependent theory of TC intensification,termed the energetically based dynamical system(EBDS)model,together with the use of a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network.In time-dependent theory,TC intensity change is controlled by both the internal dynamics of the TC system and various environmental factors,expressed as environmental dynamical efficiency.The LSTM neural network is used to predict the environmental dynamical efficiency in the EBDS model trained using besttrack TC data and global reanalysis data during 1982–2017.The transfer learning and ensemble methods are used to retrain the scheme using the environmental factors predicted by the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction during 2017–21.The predicted environmental dynamical efficiency is finally iterated into the EBDS equations to predict TC intensity.The new scheme is evaluated for TC intensity prediction using both reanalysis data and the GFS prediction data.The intensity prediction by the new scheme shows better skill than the official prediction from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and those by other state-of-art statistical and dynamical forecast systems,except for the 72-h forecast.Particularly at the longer lead times of 96 h and 120 h,the new scheme has smaller forecast errors,with a more than 30%improvement over the official forecasts.

Characteristics and Preliminary Causes of Tropical Cyclone Remote Precipitation over China

In this study,the characteristics and preliminary causes of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)over China during the period from 1979 to 2020 are investigated.Results indicated that approximately 72.42%of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Western Pacific produce TRP over China.The peak months for TRP are July and August.The four key regions of TRP are the adjacent areas between the Sichuan and Shaanxi Provinces,the northern coast of the Bohai Sea,the coast of the Yellow Sea,and the southern coast area.The typical distance between the station with TRP and the TC center ranges from 1500 to 2500 km.Most of these stations are situated north to 60°west of north of the TC.The south–west water vapor transportation on the west side of the TC is crucial to TRP.TRP has a decreasing trend because of the decrease in the number of TCs that generate TRP.From the perspective of large-scale environmental conditions,a decrease in the integrated horizontal water vapor transport in China' Mainland,the weakening of upward motion at approximately 25°–35°N,which is inconducive to convection,and an increase in low-level vertical wind shear,which is unfavorable for the development of TC in areas with high frequencies of TRP-related TCs,are the factors that result in the decreasing trend of TRP.

The Contribution of United States Aircraft Reconnaissance Data to the China Meteorological Administration Tropical Cyclone Intensity Data:An Evaluation of Homogeneity

This paper investigates the homogeneity of United States aircraft reconnaissance data and the impact of these data on the homogeneity of the tropical cyclone(TC)best track data for the seasons 1949-1987 generated by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA).The evaluation of the reconnaissance data shows that the minimum central sea level pressure(MCP)data are relatively homogeneous,whereas the maximum sustained wind(MSW)data show both overestimations and spurious abrupt changes.Statistical comparisons suggest that both the reconnaissance MCP and MSW were well incorporated into the CMA TC best track dataset.Although no spurious abrupt changes were evident in the reconnaissance-related best track MCP data,two spurious changepoints were identified in the remainder of the best-track MCP data.Furthermore,the influence of the reconnaissance MSWs seems to extend to the best track MSWs unrelated to reconnaissance,which might reflect the optimistic confidence in making higher estimates due to the overestimated extreme wind“observations”.In addition,the overestimation of either the reconnaissance MSWs or the best track MSWs was greater during the early decades compared to later decades,which reflects the important influence of reconnaissance data on the CMA TC best track dataset.The wind-pressure relationship(WPR)used in the CMA TC best track dataset is also evaluated and is found to overestimate the MSW,which may lead to inhomogeneity within the dataset between the aircraft reconnaissance era and the satellite era.

On the Optimal Initial Inner-Core Size for Tropical Cyclone Intensification: An Idealized Numerical Study

Recent observational and numerical studies have revealed the dependence of the intensification rate on the inner-core size of tropical cyclones(TCs). In this study, with the initial inner-core size(i.e., the radius of maximum wind—RMW)varied from 20–180 km in idealized simulations using two different numerical models, we found a nonmonotonic dependence of the lifetime maximum intensification rate(LMIR) on the inner-core size. Namely, there is an optimal innercore size for the LMIR of a TC. Tangential wind budget analysis shows that, compared to large TCs, small TCs have large inward flux of absolute vorticity due to large absolute vorticity inside the RMW. However, small TCs also suffer from strong lateral diffusion across the eyewall, which partly offsets the positive contribution from large inward flux of absolute vorticity. These two competing processes ultimately lead to the TC with an intermediate initial inner-core size having the largest LMIR. Results from sensitivity experiments show that the optimal size varies in the range of 40–120 km and increases with higher sea surface temperature, lower latitude, larger horizontal mixing length, and weaker initial TC intensity. The 40–120 km RMW corresponds to the inner-core size most commonly found for intensifying TCs in observations, suggesting the natural selection of initial TC size for intensification. This study highlights the importance of accurate representation of TC inner-core size to TC intensity forecasts by numerical weather prediction models.

Alignment of Track Oscillations during Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

Recent studies on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change indicate that the development of a vertically aligned TC circulation is a key feature of its rapid intensification(RI),however,understanding how vortex alignment occurs remains a challenging topic in TC intensity change research.Based on the simulation outputs of North Atlantic Hurricane Wilma(2005)and western North Pacific Typhoon Rammasun(2014),vortex track oscillations at different vertical levels and their associated role in vortex alignment are examined to improve our understanding of the vortex alignment during RI of TCs with initial hurricane intensity.It is found that vortex tracks at different vertical levels oscillate consistently in speed and direction during the RI of the two simulated TCs.While the consistent track oscillation reduces the oscillation tilt during RI,the reduction of vortex tilt results mainly from the mean track before RI.It is also found that the vortex tilt is primarily due to the mean vortex track before and after RI.The track oscillations are closely associated with wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves that are dominant wavenumber-1 circulations in the TC inner-core region.This study suggests that the dynamics of the wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves play an important role in the regulation of the physical processes associated with the track oscillation and vertical alignment of TCs.

Westerlies Affecting the Seasonal Variation of Water Vapor Transport over the Tibetan Plateau Induced by Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal

This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over the southern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau(SBTP).May and October–December are the bimodal phases of BOB TC frequency,which decreases month by month from October to December and is relatively low in May.However,the contribution rate to the MMBA is the highest in May.The seasonal variation in the meridional position of the westerlies is the key factor affecting the contribution rate.The relatively southern(northern)position of the westerlies in November and December(May)results in a lower(higher)contribution rate to the MMBA.This mechanism is confirmed by the momentum equation.When water vapor enters the westerlies near the trough line,the resultant meridional acceleration is directed north.It follows that the farther north the trough is,and the farther north the water vapor can be transported.When water vapor enters the westerlies from the area near the ridge line,for Type-T(Type-R)TCs,water vapor enters the westerlies downstream of the trough(ridge).Consequently,the direction of the resultant meridional acceleration is directed south and the resultant zonal acceleration is directed east(west),which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor.This is especially the case if the trough or ridge is relatively south,as the water vapor may not cross the SBTP.

Investigation of Maxima Assumptions in Modelling Tropical Cyclone- Induced Hazards in the South China Sea

The present study aims to examine the suitability of two commonly used assumptions that simplify modelling metoceanconditions for designing offshore wind turbines in the South China Sea (SCS). The first assumption assumes thatjoint N-year extreme wind and wave events can be independently estimated and subsequently combined. The secondone assumes peak wind and waves can be modelled as occurring simultaneously during a tropical cyclone (TC) event.To better understand the potential TC activity, a set of 10000 years synthetic TC events are generated. The wind fieldmodel and the Mike 21 spectral wave model are employed to model the TC-induced hazards. Subsequently, theeffect of the assumptions is evaluated by analyzing the peak structural response of both monopile and semisubmersibleoffshore wind turbines during TC events. The results demonstrate that the examined assumptions are generally accurate.By assessing the implications of these assumptions, valuable insights are obtained, which can inform andimprove the modelling of TC-induced hazards in the SCS region.

Roles of Upper-Level Descending Inflow in Moat Development in Simulated Tropical Cyclones with Secondary Eyewall Formation

This study investigated the effects of upper-level descending inflow(ULDI)associated with inner-eyewall convection on the formation of the moat in tropical cyclones(TCs)with secondary eyewall formation(SEF).In our numerical experiments,a clear moat with SEF occurred in TCs with a significant ULDI,while no SEF occurred in TCs without a significant ULDI.The eyewall convection developed more vigorously in the control run.A ULDI occurred outside the inner-eyewall convection,where it was symmetrically unstable.The ULDI was initially triggered by the diabatic warming released by the inner eyewall and later enhanced by the cooling below the anvil cloud.The ULDI penetrated the outer edge of the inner eyewall with relatively dry air and prevented excessive solid-phase hydrometeors from being advected further outward.It produced extensive sublimation cooling of falling hydrometeors between the eyewall and the outer convection.The sublimation cooling resulted in negative buoyancy and further induced strong subsidence between the eyewall and the outer convection.As a result,a clear moat was generated.Development of the moat in the ongoing SEF prevented the outer rainband from moving farther inward,helping the outer rainband to symmetrize into an outer eyewall.In the sensitivity experiment,no significant ULDI formed since the eyewall convection was weaker,and the eyewall anvil developed relatively lower,meaning the formation of a moat and thus an outer eyewall was less likely.This study suggests that a better-represented simulation of inner-eyewall convective structures and distribution of the solid-phase hydrometeors is important to the prediction of SEF.

Development of Asymmetric Convection in a Tropical Cyclone under Environmental Uniform Flow and Vertical Wind Shear

Idealized numerical simulations have been carried out to reveal the complexity in the development of asymmetric convection in a tropical cyclone(TC)under the influence of an environment with either uniform flow,vertical wind shear(VWS),or both.Results show that rainwater is enhanced to the right of the motion in the outer rainband,but such enhancement occurs in the upshear-left area of the inner-core region.Additionally,due to the asymmetries introduced by environmental flow,wavenumber-1 temperature and height anomalies develop at a radius of~1000 km in the upper levels.A sub-vortex aside from the TC center encompassing the wavenumber-1 warm center appears,and asymmetric horizontal winds emerge,which,in turn,changes the storm-scale(within 400 km)VWS.Deep convection in the inner core closely follows the changing storm-scale VWS when its magnitude is larger than 2 m s^(-1) and is located downshear of the storm-scale VWS in all the experiments with environmental flow.In the outer rainbands,the maximum boundary layer convergence is mainly controlled by the direction of motion and is located in the rear-right quadrant.These results extend upon the findings of previous studies in three aspects:(1)The discovery of the roughly linear combination effect from the uniform flow and large-scale VWS;(2)The development of upper-level asymmetric winds on a 1000-km scale through the interaction between the TC vortex and environmental flow,resulting in changes in the storm-scale VWS pattern within the TC area;(3)The revelation that TC asymmetric convection closely aligns with the direction-varying storm-scale VWS instead of the initially designated VWS.

Track-Pattern-Based Characteristics of Extratropical Transitioning Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

Based on the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center(RSMC)Tokyo-Typhoon Center best-track data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset,extratropical transitioning(ET)tropical cyclones(ETCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)during 1951–2021 are classified into six clusters using the fuzzy c-means clustering method(FCM)according to their track patterns.The characteristics of the six hard-clustered ETCs with the highest membership coefficient are shown.Most tropical cyclones(TCs)that were assigned to clusters C2,C5,and C6 made landfall over eastern Asian countries,which severely threatened these regions.Among landfalling TCs,93.2%completed their ET after landfall,whereas 39.8%of ETCs completed their transition within one day.The frequency of ETCs over the WNP has decreased in the past four decades,wherein cluster C5 demonstrated a significant decrease on both interannual and interdecadal timescales with the expansion and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).This large-scale circulation pattern is favorable for C2 and causes it to become the dominant track pattern,owning to it containing the largest number of intensifying ETCs among the six clusters,a number that has increased insignificantly over the past four decades.The surface roughness variation and three-dimensional background circulation led to C5 containing the maximum number of landfalling TCs and a minimum number of intensifying ETCs.Our results will facilitate a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions of ET events and associated environment background fields,which will benefit the effective monitoring of these events over the WNP.

Environmental Conditions Conducive to the Formation of Multiple Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

There is limited understanding regarding the formation of multiple tropical cyclones(MTCs).This study explores the environmental conditions conducive to MTC formation by objectively determining the atmospheric circulation patterns favorable for MTC formation over the western North Pacific.Based on 199 MTC events occurring from June to October 1980–2020,four distinct circulation patterns are identified:the monsoon trough(MT)pattern,accounting for 40.3%of occurrences,the confluence zone(CON)pattern at 26.2%,the easterly wave(EW)pattern at 17.8%,and the monsoon gyre(MG)pattern at 15.7%.The MT pattern mainly arises from the interaction between the subtropical high and the monsoon trough,with MTCs forming along the monsoon trough and its flanks.The CON pattern is affected by the subtropical high,the South Asian high,and the monsoon trough,with MTCs emerging at the confluence zone where the prevailing southwesterly and southeasterly flows converge.The EW pattern is dominated by easterly flows,with MTCs developing along the easterly wave train.MTCs in the MG pattern arise within a monsoon vortex characterized by strong southwesterly flows.A quantitative analysis further indicates that MTC formation in the MT pattern is primarily governed by mid-level vertical velocity and low-level vorticity,while mid-level humidity and vertical velocity are significantly important in the other patterns.The meridional shear and convergence of zonal winds are essential in converting barotropic energy from the basic flows to disturbance kinetic energy,acting as the primary source for eddy kinetic energy growth.

An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea from the CMA-TRAMS

Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.

Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Sea Level Rise and Tropical Cyclones in Dongzhaigang Mangroves,China

Mangroves play a pivotal role in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystem,yet they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change,particularly the accelerated global sea level rise(SLR)and stronger tropical cyclones(TCs).However,there is a lack of research addressing future simultaneous combined impacts of the slow-onset of SLR and rapid-onset of TCs on China's mangroves.In order to develop a comprehensive risk assessment method considering the superimposed effects of these two factors and analyze risk for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,Hainan Island,China,we used observational and climate model data to assess the risks to mangroves under low,intermediate,and very high greenhouse gas(GHG)emission scenarios(such as SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)in 2030,2050,and 2100,and compiled a risk assessment scheme for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China.The results showed that the combined risks from SLR and TCs will continue to rise;however,SLRs will increase in intensity,and TCs will decrease.The comprehensive risk of the Dongzhaigang mangroves posed by climate change will remain low under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios by 2030,but it will increase substantially by 2100.While under SSP5-8.5 scenario,the risks to mangroves in Dongzhaigang are projected to increase considerably by 2050,and approximately 68.8%of mangroves will be at very high risk by 2100.The risk to the Dongzhaigang mangroves is not only influenced by the hazards but also closely linked to their exposure and vulnerability.We therefore propose climate resilience developmental responses for mangroves to address the effects of climate change.This study for the combined impact of TCs and SLR on mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China can enrich the method system of mangrove risk assessment and provide references for scientific management.

Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensity Change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones:A Numerical Study

This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone(TC)vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle(ERC)of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds.It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall,which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution.In contrast,the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall.These led to stronger boundary layer inflow,stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall,and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall.These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall,followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC.Our study demonstrates that accurate initialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC.Additionally,monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.

Comparison of tropical cyclone thermal structures derived from ATMS and synthetic AMSU-A/MHS

热带气旋(TC)的暖心反映了其强度和变化.微波探测数据被广泛用于探测TC暖心,但观测到的TC暖心强度可能因仪器而异.本研究利用先进技术微波探测仪(ATMS)的过采样数据重采样至与先进微波探测仪(AMSU-A)一致的亮温,称为类AMSU数据.通过对比发现,ATMS的观测更加细致,较好地刻画了TC眼区和云带.使用ATMS和类-AMSU数据反演多个TC的暖心发现,在250 hPa,使用ATMS数据反演的暖心强度比类-AMSU高约1-2K,并且其暖心结构更详细.

Change in the Number of Tropical Cyclone Landfall and Approach over Mozambique from 1980 to 2020

In this study, the variability of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall and approach over Mozambique as well as the environmental factors influencing were investigated. The frequencies of tropical cyclone landfall and approach as well as environmental factors were compared between the two periods (1980 to 1999 and 2000 to 2020). This study found that, according to International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone data, the number of tropical cyclones making landfall over Mozambique increased by about 66% in the second period (2000-2020), compared to 34% in the first period (1980-1999). While the number of tropical cyclone approaches reduced from 59% in the first period to 41% in the second period. An assessment of the environmental conditions showed that warmer sea surface temperature (SST) and low vertical wind shear (VWS) were favorable to more TC genesis and, consequently, an increase in landfalls and a reduction in TC confined to the approach.

Analysis on causes of tropical cyclones and their disasters affecting on Guangxi coast based on historical data

The tropical cyclone that lands or passes through Guangxi coast is a serious natural disaster, which brings about strong winds, heavy rains, storm surges and other disasters causing severe damage of property or casualties in the coastal region every year. By counting and analyzing the tropical cyclones affecting Guangxi coast from 1950 to 2012, we find that the annual number of tropical cyclones changes significantly, and the maximum value can be up to 9, whereas the minimum value is 0 in some year. The regularity of seasonal distribution of tropical cyclones is obvious, and the peak period is in July, August and September every year, followed by June and October. Most of tropical cyclones come from the east of Philippines. After entering the South China Sea and passing through Hainan province and Leizhou Peninsula, they landed on Guangxi coast once again and caused the mean of peak surge reaching 111.2 cm, which is 2.6 times of non-landing typhoon. The formation of storm surge disaster is directly related to the severe typhoon weather systems, diurnal spring tide and discharge of river flood. Severe typhoons generate huge waves and rainfall, which lead to the rise of water level at the estuary, and would result in significant increasing water when stacking up with the storm surge, and cause huge tidal disaster.

An Overview of Research and Forecasting on Rainfall Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

The ability to forecast heavy rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones （LTCs） can be improved with a better understanding of the mechanism of rainfall rates and distributions of LTCs. Research in the area of LTCs has shown that associated heavy rainfall is related closely to mechanisms such as moisture transport, extratropical transition （ET）, interaction with monsoon surge, land surface processes or topographic effects, mesoscale convective system activities within the LTC, and boundary layer energy transfer etc.. LTCs interacting with environmental weather systems, especially the westerly trough and mei-yu front, could change the rainfall rate and distribution associated with these mid-latitude weather systems. Recently improved technologies have contributed to advancements within the areas of quantitative precipitation estimation （QPE） and quantitative precipitation forecasting （QPF）. More specifically, progress has been due primarily to remote sensing observations and mesoscale numerical models which incorporate advanced assimilation techniques. Such progress may provide the tools necessary to improve rainfall forecasting techniques associated with LTCs in the future.

Influence of Monsoon over the Warm Pool on Interannual Variation on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone （TC） activity over the western North Pacific （WNP） and the thermal state over the warm pool （WP） is examined in this paper. The results show that the subsurface temperature in the WP is well correlated with TC geographical distribution and track type. Their relation is linked by the East Asian monsoon trough. During the warm years, the westward-retreating monsoon trough creates convergence and vorticity fields that are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the northwest of the WNP, whereas more TCs concentrating in the southeast result from eastward penetration of the monsoon trough during the cold years. The steering flows at 500 hPa lead to a westward displacement track in the warm years and recurving prevailing track in the cold years. The two types of distinct processes in the monsoon environment triggering tropical cyclogenesis are hypothesized by composites centered for TC genesis location corresponding to two kinds of thermal states of the WP. During the warm years, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation is active in the west of the WNP such that eastward-propagating westerlies cluster TC genesis in that region. In contrast, during the cold years, the increased cyclogenesis in the southeast of the WNP is mainly associated with tropical depression type disturbances transiting from equatorially trapped mixed Rossby gravity waves. Both of the processes may be fundamental mechanisms for the inherent interannual variation in TC activity over the WNP.

Assessing the Influence of the ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Prevailing Tracks in the Western North Pacific

Using a statistical model for simulating tropical cyclone （TC） formation and a trajectory model for simulating TC tracks, the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） on the peak-season （July-September） TC prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific basin is assessed based on 14 selected El Nino and 14 selected La Nina years during the period 1950-2007. It is found that the combination of statistical formation model and a trajectory model can simulate well the primary features of TC prevailing tracks on the interannual timescale. In the El Nino years, the significant enhancement of TC activity primarily occurs south of 20°N, especially east of 130°E. TCs that take the northwestward prevailing track and affect East Asia, including Taiwan Island, the Chinese mainland, Korea, and Japan, tend to move more westward in the El Nino years, while taking a more northward track in the La Nina years. Numerical simulations confirm that the ENSO-related changes in large-scale steering flows and TC formation locations can have a considerable influence on TC prevailing tracks.