Impact of Cyclone Nilam on Tropical Lower Atmospheric Dynamics

A deep depression formed over the Bay of Bengal on 28 October 2012, and developed into a cyclonic storm. After landfall near the south coast of Chennai, cyclone Nilam moved north-northwestwards. Coordinated experiments were conducted from the Indian stations of Gadanki（13.5？N, 79.2？E） and Hyderabad（17.4？N, 78.5？E） to study the modification of gravity-wave activity and turbulence by cyclone Nilam, using GPS radiosonde and mesosphere–stratosphere–troposphere radar data. The horizontal velocities underwent large changes during the closest approach of the storm to the experimental sites. Hodograph analysis revealed that inertia gravity waves（IGWs） associated with the cyclone changed their directions from northeast（control time） to northwest following the path of the cyclone. The momentum flux of IGWs and short-period gravity waves（1–8 h） enhanced prior to, and during, the passage of the storm（±0.05 m2s-2and ±0.3 m2s-2, respectively）, compared to the flux after its passage. The corresponding body forces underwent similar changes, with values ranging between ±2–4m s-1d-1and ±12–15 m s-1d-1. The turbulence refractivity structure constant（C2n） showed large values below 10 km before the passage of the cyclone when humidity in the region was very high. Turbulence and humidity reduced during the passage of the storm when a turbulent layer at ～17 km became more intense. Turbulence in the lower troposphere and near the tropopause became weak after the passage of the cyclone.

Estimation of extreme wind speed in SCS and NWP by a non-stationary model

In offshore engineering design, it is considerably significant to have an adequately accurate estimation of marine environmental parameters, in particular, the extreme wind speed of tropical cyclone （TC） with different return periods to guarantee the safety in projected operating life period. Based on the 71-year （1945-2015） TC data in the Northwest Pacific （NWP） by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） of US, a notable growth of the TC intensity is observed in the context of climate change. The fact implies that the traditional stationary model might be incapable of predicting parameters in the extreme events. Therefore, a non-stationary model is proposed in this study to estimate extreme wind speed in the South China Sea （SCS） and NWP. We find that the extreme wind speeds of different return periods exhibit an evident enhancement trend, for instance, the extreme wind speeds with different return periods by non- stationary model are 4.1%-4.4% higher than stationary ones in SCS. Also, the spatial distribution of extreme wind speed in NWP has been examined with the same methodology by dividing the west sea areas of the NWP 0°-45°N, 105°E-130°E into 45 subareas of 5° × 5°, where oil and gas resources are abundant. Similarly, remarkable spacial in-homogeneity in the extreme wind speed is seen in this area： the extreme wind speed with 50-year return period in the subarea （15°N-20°N, 115°E-120°E） of Zhongsha and Dongsha Islands is 73.8 m/s, while that in the subarea of Yellow Sea （30°N-35°N, 120°E-125°E） is only 47.1 m/s. As a result, the present study demonstrates that non-stationary and in-homogeneous effects should be taken into consideration in the estimation of extreme wind speed.