Seasonal Prediction Skill and Biases in GloSea5 Relating to the East Asia Winter Monsoon

The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead times.While GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast China.GloSea5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background circulation.GloSea5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWM,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East Asia.The representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.

The strong winter monsoon in East Asia and El Nino

The relationship between meridional wind in mid - latitudes of East Asia and SST in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific is analysed in this paper. It is pointed out that there exist close relations between the seasonal changes of the meridional wind in mid - latitudes of East Asia and SST in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. The intensification of north winds over East Asia also plays an important role in the rise of SST in Equatorial Eastern Pacific one year later. The strong winter monsoon usually occurs in previous winter of El Nino and it causes low temperature to a great extent in China . The low temperature in China can be regarded as a precursor of El Nino.

Characteristics of Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Cold Surge Occurrences in East Asia:A Case Study During 2005/06 Winter

The characteristics of the upper-level circulation and thermodynamical properties for the period when two distinct cold surges broke out over East Asia during the 2005/06 winter are investigated. From early December 2005 to early January 2006, exceptionally cold weather lasted for approximately one month due to two successive cold surges that took place on 2 December 2005 and 2 January 2006, respectively. This study reveals that both involve the upper-tropospheric circulation, which induces the amplification and expansion of the surface Siberian high toward East Asia, but arose from different causes： the former is caused by the upper-level blocking originated from the North Pacific and the latter is caused by the upper-level wave train across the Eurasian Continent. In particular, it is suggested that the lower-tropospheric anomalous wind caused by upper-level circulation anomalies and a steep meridional temperature gradient amplified by phase-locked annual cycle combined to induce very strong cold advection in East Asia, which resulted in exceptionally cold weather that lasted for several weeks. The present results emphasize that the characteristics of the upper-tropospheric circulation can be considered as important precursors to cold surge occurrences in East Asia.

Wintertime Cyclone Activity and Its Relation to Precipitation over China

The authors examined the variability in wintertime cyclone activity and storm tracks and their relation to precipitation over China for the period 1951–2006 using the observational data.Two apparent modes of variability were assumed for the cyclone activity and storm tracks.The first mode describes the oscillation in the strength of the storm tracks in East Asia,which significantly increased since the mid-1980s,whereas the second mode describes a seesaw oscillation in the storm track strength between the Central-Southeast China and northern East Asia.The storm tracks over the Central-Southeast China have increased since the late 1960s.The possible causes for the variation of the cyclone activity and storm tracks are also explored.It is shown that wintertime precipitation,which has increased since the mid-1980s,concentrates in Central-Southeast China.The enhancement may be caused by the first mode of variability of storm tracks,whereas the interannual variability of precipitation may be linked to the second mode of the storm track variability.

Anomalous activity of East Asian winter monsoon and the tropical Pacific SSTA

The relationship between the anomalous East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) activity and the tropical Pacific SST anomalies has been identified using the results of 40-year integration of the IAP CGCM1 model and 10-year observational data, In the strong EAWM year, the western and central Pacific are dominated by positive SST anomalies while the eastern Pacific is negative ones. In the weak EAWM year, the SSTA pattern is quite different and shows El Nio-like SSTanomalies. The strong EAWM activity tends to create extra easterly flow to the east and extra westerly flow to the west of the warm SSTA region over the equatorial western and central Pacific, thus leading to the enhancement of convergence and convection of the flow in this region and favorable to the maintenance and development of such an SSTA pattern. On the other hand, the warm SST anomaly over the western and central Pacific, as a forcing, may lead to a specific pattern of the northern extratropical atmosphere, which is favorable to the strong

East Asia Winter Monsoon changes inferred from environmentally sensitive grain-size component records during the last 2300 years in mud area southwest off Cheju Island,ECS

Environmentally sensitive grain-size component (ESGSC) extracted from grain-size data of a sediment core B2, which were retrieved from mud area southwest off Cheju Island (MACI), East China Sea (ECS), can be used to indicate the variations of East Asia Winter Monsoon (EAWM), with high (low) content/mean-size of ESGCS denote to strong (weak) EAWM. Combined with AMS14C datings core B2 provides a continuous high-resolution record of EAWM changes over the past 2300 years, with an average resolution of 13 years. The results show that the variations of EAWM are con-sistent with temperature changes inferred from historical documents in eastern China over the past 2300 years, from which four climate stages may be identified. In stages before 1900 aBP (50 AD) and 1450―780 aBP (50―1170 AD) the EAWM were comparatively weak, corresponding to warm climate periods in eastern China, respectively. And in stages of 1900―1450 aBP (50―500 AD) and 780―219 aBP (1170―1731 AD) the EAWM were strongly developed, which correspond well to climate changes of two cold periods in eastern China. It is also shown from this study that the stage at 780―219 aBP (1170―1731 AD) was the coldest climate period during the last 2300 years and could be, therefore, related to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Climatic fluctuations appeared obviously in all the four stages, and two climate events of abrupt changes from warm to cold occurred at around 1900 aBP (50 AD) and 780 aBP (1170 AD), of which the latter is probably related to globe-scale changes of atmospheric circulation at that time.

EFFECTS OF VARIATION OF WINTER SEA-ICE AREA IN KARA AND BARENTS SEAS ON EAST ASIA WINTER MONSOON

By analyzing the observation data and performing the numerical simulation tests,it is shown that the Kara and the Barents Sea area is a key region to influence climate variation over the Northern Hemisphere.The variation of winter sea-ice area in the key region is closely associated with that of the EU teleconnection pattern at 500 hPa and East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM) intensity.When a heavy sea-ice prevails in the key region,the EU teleconnection pattern at 500 hPa is excited easily(there are positive 500 hPa height anomalies over around Japan and West Europe),and winter Siberia high is weakened,meanwhile,sea level pressure(SLP)has positive anomalies over the Northern Pacific.Therefore,EAWM will be weakened,winter temperature over East Asia is above normal and the frequency of cold-air activity in February in China will be decreased.When the light sea-ice occurs in the key region,the results will be opposite.

A FURTHER STUDY ON INTERACTION BETWEEN ANOMALOUS WINTER MONSOON IN EAST ASIA AND EL NINO

The interaction between anomalous winter monsoon in East Asia and El Nino is further stud- ied in this paper.The new results still more proved a previous conclusion:there are clear interac- tions between El Nino and winter monsoon in East Asia.The continual westerly burst and stronger cumulus convection over the equatorial central-western Pacific caused by stronger winter monsoon in East Asia can respectively excite anomalous oceanic Kelvin wave and stronger atmo- spheric intraseasonal oscillation in the tropics,then excite the El Nino event through air-sea inter- action.In El Nino winter,there are warmer and weaker winter monsoons in East Asia.The El Ni- no will still reduce the intensity of intraseasonal oscillation and leads it to be barotropic structure.

ON THE PROCESS OF SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER EAST ASIA

Using daily observational rainfall data covered 194 stations of China from 1961 to 1995 and NCEP model analyzed pentad precipitation data of global grid point from 1979 to 1997,the distribution of onset date of rainy season over Asian area from spring to summer is studied in this paper.The analyzed results show that there exist two stages of rainy season onset over East Asian region from spring to summer rainy season onset accompanying subtropical monsoon and tropical monsoon respectively.The former rain belt is mainly formed by the convergence of cold air and the recurred southwesterly flow from western part of subtropical high and westerly flow from the so- called western trough of subtropical region occurring during winter to spring over South Asia.The latter is formed in the process of subtropical monsoon rain belt over inshore regions of South China Sea originally coming from south of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Basin advancing with northward shift of subtropical high after the onset of tropical monsoon over South China Sea.The pre-flood rainy season over South China region then came into mature period and the second peak of rainfall appeared.Meiyu,the rainy season over Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin and North China then formed consequently.The process of summer tropical monsoon onset over South China Sea in 1998 is also discussed in this paper.It indicated that the monsoon during summer tropical monsoon onset over South China Sea is the result of the westerly flow over middle part of South China Sea, which is from the new generated cyclone formed in north subtropical high entering into South China Sea,converged with the tropical southwesterly flow recurred by the intensified cross- equatorial flow.

AN ANALYSIS OF THE WINTER EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS ON THE BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE WARMING IN SOUTHERN CHINA

Based on daily precipitation and monthly temperature data in southern China, the winter extreme precipitation changes in southern China have been investigated by using the Mann-Kendall test and the return values of Generalized Pareto Distribution. The results show that a winter climate catastrophe in southern China occurred around 1991, and the intensity of winter extreme precipitation was strengthened after climate warming. The anomalous circulation characteristics before and after the climate warming was further analyzed by using the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. It is found that the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is negatively correlated with the precipitation in southeastern China. After climate warming the meridionality of the circulations in middle and high latitudes increases, which is favorable for the southward movement of the cold air from the north. In addition, the increase of the temperature over southern China may lead to the decrease of the differential heating between the continent and the ocean. Consequently, the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is weakened, which is favorable for the transport of the warm and humid air to southeastern China and the formation of the anomalous convergence of the moisture flux, resulting in large precipitation over southeastern China. As a result, the interaction between the anomalous circulations in the middle and high latitudes and lower latitudes after the climate warming plays a major role in the increase of the winter precipitation intensity over southeastern China.

THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE PRECEDING WINTER MJO ACTIVITIES AND THE SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVER BASIN OF CHINA

The first two series(RMM1 and RMM2) of RMM Index(all-Season Real-time Multivariate MJO Index) are computed to obtain the interannual variation of the preceding winter(preceding December to current February) MJO strength,according to which active(or inactive) years of preceding winter MJO are divided.By utilizing the data provided by NCEP/NCAR,CMAP and China's 160 stations from 1979 to 2008,we studied the preceding winter MJO strength and discovered that the summer precipitation in the basin are of significantly negative correlation,i.e.when the preceding winter MJO is relatively active,the summer precipitation in the basin decreases,and vise verse.We also analyzed the causes.When the preceding winter MJO is relatively active,its release of potential heat facilities Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) to strengthen and locate northward in winter and propagate northeastward.This abnormal situation lasts from winter to summer.In mid-May,ITCZ jumps northward to the South China Sea,the western Pacific subtropical high withdraws eastward,and the South China Sea summer monsoon sets off and strengthens.In summer,ITCZ propagates to South China Sea-subtropical western Pacific,the zonal circulation of subtropical Pacific strengthens,and a local meridional circulation of the South China Sea to the basin area forms,giving rise to the East Asia Pacific teleconnection wave-train.An East Asian monsoon trough and the Meiyu front show opposite features from south to north,the East Asian summer monsoon strengthens and advances northward.As a result,the summer monsoon is weakened as the basin is controlled by the subtropical high continually,with less rain in summer.On the contrary,when the preceding winter MJO is inactive,ITCZ weakens and is located southward,the subtropical high is located southward in summer,and the basin is in a region of ascending airflow with prevailing southwest wind.The East Asian monsoon trough and EASM weaken so that summer monsoon is reduced in the basin where precipitation increases.

2022/2023年冬季北半球大气环流特征及对我国天气气候的影响

2022/2023年冬季全国平均气温较常年同期偏高0.2℃,我国大部地区气温偏高;全国平均降水量较常年同期偏少24.6%,空间上呈现北多南少的分布形势。东亚冬季风标准化指数为0.25,较常年同期略偏强;西伯利亚高压标准化强度指数为0.47,较常年同期略偏强;冬季北极涛动指数为-0.6,“前负后正”的阶段性特征显著;西太平洋副热带高压强度指数为-45.6 gpm,较常年同期偏弱;冬季欧亚大陆中高纬地区500 hPa为西高东低的环流形势,我国除华北、东北高度场偏低外,其余地区高度场偏高。冬季大气环流具有显著的季节内变化特征,12月为异常经向型环流,2月转为纬向型环流;对应冬季风也表现为前强后弱的变化趋势。北大西洋海温三极子(NAT)与乌拉尔山500 hPa高度场相关结果显示,8月、9月NAT与12月乌拉尔山地区高度场呈显著负相关,前期NAT异常负位相(正位相)有利于前冬东亚经向环流加强(减弱)。

“0506”华南持续性暴雨的季风环流背景

提出了确定东亚夏季风活动区域、划分热带季风和副热带季风活动区域的指标,利用大气对流层风速、位势高度、湿度、温度、OLR以及TBB等NCEP/NCAR资料,从月、候和过程平均多种时间尺度,诊断分析了2005年6月(简称“0506”)华南持续性暴雨的季风环流活动变化特征。结果表明:副热带高压强度偏强,西脊点位置偏西偏南,热带西太平洋(130°～140°E)区域越赤道气流偏强,华南处于气旋性低压异常区,无论是月时间尺度还是暴雨过程时间尺度都表现出这些明显特征;暴雨过程水汽除了来源于孟加拉湾和南海外,水汽通量异常部分主要来自南海和热带西太平洋,热带西太平洋水汽随着副高边缘气流经过南海向华南输送,从而为暴雨过程提供了丰富的水汽来源;2005年6月热带季风前沿在华南沿海地区停滞时间比气候平均偏长(2候),该特征是华南暴雨预报值得参考的信号;6月整个南海地区平均季风偏强,主要体现于经向风明显偏强,但华南持续性暴雨过程开始于南海地区夏季风非活跃期,这与热带季风季节内振荡向北传播到华南有关。以上季风活动变化特征为华南强降水提供了有利的动力条件和丰富的水汽来源。

2009年秋至2010年春我国西南地区严重干旱的成因分析

我国西南地区从2009年秋季到2010年春季发生了严重干旱,这次干旱无论持续时间和发生区域或降水减少程度都是近50年来所罕见的,因而本文利用ERA-40再分析资料和海温资料从热带西太平洋和热带印度洋热力异常对热带西太平洋和南亚上空大气环流的影响来分析了这次西南地区干旱发生的成因。分析结果表明:从2009年秋到2010年春季,热带西太平洋和热带印度洋处于升温状态,它使得热带西太平洋上空产生反气旋异常环流,造成了西南气流异常在我国东南沿海加强,而华南和华中地区上空处于低槽控制,因而在高原东部为槽后西北气流和下沉气流所控制,造成了从孟加拉湾来的水汽很难到达云贵高原,从而引起了此区域降水长期偏少。并且,分析结果还表明了中高纬度地区的环流异常对此次严重干旱也有重要影响。由于从2009年冬季到2010年春季中高纬度准定常行星波传播的极地波导偏强,而低纬波导偏弱,这导致波的E-P通量在60°N附近对流层和平流层为辐合,而在35°N附近对流层中、上层为辐散,从而引起纬向平均西风在60°N附近对流层和平流层减弱,而在35°N附近对流层中、上层加强,造成了北极涛动(AO)为很大的负值。由于AO为负值,东亚冬季冷空气活动强且路径偏东,使得到达西南地区冷空气偏弱,从而引起西南地区持续性严重干旱的发生。

冬季北极喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积变化对东亚冬季风的影响

通过大量的数据分析发现，冬季喀拉海、巴伦支海海区是影响东亚以及北半球气候变化的关键区之一，该海区海冰面积变化与大气５００ｈＰａ高度场的ＥＵ遥相关型以及东亚冬季风强、弱之间存在密切的关系。冬季该海区海冰偏多，则５００ｈＰａ高度场容易出现ＥＵ遥相关型（日本及西欧５００ｈＰａ高度场偏高），亚洲大陆上的冷高压减弱。而北太平洋海域海平面气压升高，致使东亚冬季风偏弱以及２月份入侵我国的冷空气次数减少；而冬季该海区海冰偏少时，情况正好相反。

东亚地区冬季风对气溶胶传输和分布的影响研究

随着东亚地区经济高速发展,气溶胶成为最主要的大气污染物之一,其时空分布受到东亚季风气候的影响.本研究利用MODIS(Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)和TOMS(Total Ozone Meteorological Satellite)气溶胶卫星产品以及NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)月均气象场再分析资料,统计分析了1979—2011年东亚地区气溶胶光学厚度的分布特征以及冬季风的大气环流特征,同时分析了东亚冬季风对气溶胶传输和分布的影响.结果表明,东亚冬季风存在明显的年际和年代际差异,年际变化幅度较大.1979—2011年东亚冬季风出现逐渐减弱的趋势.近10年来东亚地区气溶胶光学厚度呈现上升趋势,主要是由于人类活动导致气溶胶排放量增加.东亚地区冬季风对气溶胶的分布有较大影响,强冬季风年会加强气溶胶的向南输送,同时降水增加导致气溶胶湿清除增大,使东亚气溶胶减少.在风场和降水对气溶胶的影响中,降水的清除作用更加明显.

北极涛动年代际变化对东亚北部冬季气温增暖的影响

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料中的地表气温资料,分析了1949—1999年东亚北部地区冬季气温的变化。结果表明,从20世纪70年代中期开始东亚北部的气温显著升高,具有明显的年代际变化特征。这种气温的异常变化主要受东亚冬季风的直接影响。近二十几年来,北极涛动对东亚冬季风的影响越来越显著,北极涛动维持在正位相并持续增强,同期东亚冬季风持续减弱。研究表明,北极涛动持续增强的趋势是东亚北部地区冬季增暖的重要原因之一。

东海内陆架沉积气候信息的端元分析模型反演

应用沉积物粒度端元分析模型对在东海内陆架泥质区取得的30号柱样的高分辨率粒度数据序列进行了反演,分离出3个端元,根据端元的频率分布特征和已有研究结果,认为3个端元可能为现代陆源细颗粒物质(EM1)、现代陆源粗颗粒物质(EM2)和风暴带来的残留沉积区再悬浮物质(EM3),并对本区域的水动力环境进行了分析,认为分离出的端元EM1和EM2的比值EM2/(EM1+EM2)序列可以反映东海沿岸流强度的历史变化,进而反映东亚冬季风强度和中国温度波动的历史。该序列与观测到的近百年来东亚冬季风强度记录、竺可桢的中国温度波动曲线以及葛全胜的中国东部冬半年温度变化序列有很好的对应关系。得出的气候指标序列在竺可桢给出的公元600—1100年高温期间的780—920年出现了一个极小值区,为许多作者推测的公元780—920年出现一个短暂的冷期提供了佐证;另外该序列近百年来变化幅度明显,反映了人类活动的影响。

近2ka以来东海内陆架泥质区记录的高分辨率古气候演化

通过对位于东海内陆架泥质区中部的MZ02柱样岩芯进行粒度、常量元素、AMS14C分析,获得了粒度和常量元素随时间变化的高分辨率曲线。结果表明,近2 ka以来研究区沉积环境稳定,以沿岸流控制的浅海沉积为主,沉积物中CaO/K2O,MgO/Al2O3和MnO/Na2O比值的变化与我国东部气候变化序列具有较好的一致性,证明这些元素地球化学指标可以作为古气候变化的高分辨率替代性指标。近2 ka以来CaO/K2O、MgO/Al2O3和MnO/Na2O共同识别出的7次极值揭示了同期的降温事件,分别发生在～1 480 a BP(C1),～1 200 a BP(C2),～1 020 a BP(C3),～780 a BP(C4),～580 a BP(C5),～330 a BP(C6),～120 a BP(C7),且在其他区域不同介质中也能找到相应的降温证据,揭示了气候变化的区域性以至全球性联系。

我国南方冬季气候变暖前后极端降水事件分析

利用我国南方逐日降水资料及逐月温度资料,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验方法,并计算极端降水的GPD(Generalized Pareto Distribution)重现值,讨论了气候变暖前后我国南方冬季极端降水事件的变化。结果表明,我国南方冬季气候变暖的突变发生在1991年前后,且气候变暖后我国南方冬季的极端降水强度普遍有所增加。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料进一步分析气候变暖前后的环流场特征,发现东亚热带冬季风异常与我国华南、江南地区降水异常有显著的相关关系。东亚热带冬季风偏强(弱),华南、江南地区降水偏少(多)。气候变暖后中高纬度环流经向度加大,有利于北方的冷空气向南输送。此外,气候变暖后我国南方地面气温升高,海陆热力差异减小,东亚热带冬季风减弱,有利于西太平洋的暖湿气流向我国大陆东南部输送,并在东南部形成异常的水汽通量辐合,有利于形成强降水。气候变暖后,中高纬度与中低纬度异常环流系统的相互作用是我国东南部降水强度增加的主要原因。