The great Wenchuan earthquake of M8.0 on May 12, 2008, occurred in an area with dense GPS observation stations in the regional network of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC). Non-continuous ob...The great Wenchuan earthquake of M8.0 on May 12, 2008, occurred in an area with dense GPS observation stations in the regional network of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC). Non-continuous observations were carried out at the 1 000 GPS stations of the regional network in 1999, 2001, 2004 and 2007. The horizontal displacements at GPS stations in the regional network before the Wenchuan earthquake show that the main driving tectonic force of the earthquake was the northward pushing of the Indian plate, added at the same time by the pushing of plates on the east and south. In comparison to the displacements in other regions, the horizontal displacements near and around the seismic area is characterized by diverging eastward displacements, that is, the stations to the north of the epicenter moved in the ENE direction while those to the south of epicenter moved in ESE direction with smaller displacements at stations near the epicenter. The accuracy of the estimated strain results is briefly discussed. In order to obtain the anomalous information before the earthquake, the methods of both best fits by trend surface and statistics have been used in the study for finding the future epicentral area from the strain accumulations in the regional network observed from 1999 to 2007 before the Wenchuan earthquake. Besides the epicentral area of the western Kunlun mountain pass earthquake of M8.1 in 2001, the results of best fits by trend surfaces of the strain accumulations from 1999 to 2007 in the regional network show that the Wenchuan earthquake occurred at the eastern fringe of a large area with relatively large accumulations of the first shear strains and also at the northeastern fringe of a smaller area with significant accumulated areal compressions. The statistics of the accumulations of the strain components demonstrates that they also showed anomalous distribution pattems in this area and its neighborhood with increasing accumulations of both shear strains and areal compressions.展开更多
An Ms6.4 earthquake occurred in the Menyuan county of Qinghai Province on Jan 21, 2016. In order to recognize the development of horizontal deformation and distinguish precursory deformation anomalies, we obtained coo...An Ms6.4 earthquake occurred in the Menyuan county of Qinghai Province on Jan 21, 2016. In order to recognize the development of horizontal deformation and distinguish precursory deformation anomalies, we obtained coordinates time series, velocity and strain model around the seismic zones from processing of continuous observations from 2010 and 6 times of surveying Global Positioning System (GPS) data since 2009. The results show that, before the earthquake, the eastern segmentation of the Qilian tectonic zone where the Lenglongling Fault located is in strong crustal shortening and compressional strain state with dilatational rates of -15 to -25 ppb. The Lenglongling Fault has a strike-slip rate of 3.1 mm/a and a far-field differential orthogonal rate of 7 mm/a, while differential rate is only 1.2 mm/a near the fault, which reflects its locking feature with strain energy accumulation and high seismic risks. Dynamic evolution of deformation model shows that preevent dilatational rates around the seismic zones increases from 15 ppb/a to -20 ppb/a with its center moving to the source areas. Time series of N components of G337 station, which is 13.7 km away from the Lenglongling Fault, exhibit a 5 mm/a acceleration anomaly. Time series of base-station QHME (in Menyuan) displays a reverse acceleration from the end of Sep. to Dec., 2016 when it comes to a largest deviation, and the accumulative displacement is more than 4 mm and the value reverse till the earthquake. In our results, coseismic displacement of N, E, U components in QHME site are 3.0 mm, 3.0 mm, -5.4 mm, respectively. If we profile these values onto the Lenglongling Fault, we can achieve a 1.1 mm of strike slip and 4.1 mm updip slip relative to the hanging wall.展开更多
In order to track the space-time variation of regional strain field holistically(in a large scale) and to describe the regional movement field more objectively,the paper uses a nonlinear continuous strain model focuse...In order to track the space-time variation of regional strain field holistically(in a large scale) and to describe the regional movement field more objectively,the paper uses a nonlinear continuous strain model focused on extracting medium-low frequency strain information on the basis of a region with no rotation.According to the repeated measurements(1999~2001~2004) from GPS monitoring stations in the Sichuan and Yunnan area obtained by the Project of "China Crust Movement Measuring Network",and with the movement of 1999~2001(stage deformation background) as the basic reference,we separated the main influencing factors of the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake in 2001 from the data of 2001 and 2004,and the results indicate:(1) the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake has a discriminating effect on the Sichuan and Yunnan area,moreover,the deformation mode and background had not only certain similitude but also some diversity;(2) The movement field before the earthquake was very ordinal,while after the earthquake,order and disorder existed simultaneously in the displacement field;The displacement quantities of GPS monitoring stations were generally several millimeters;(3) The principal strain field before earthquake was basically tensile in an approximate EW direction and compressive in the SN direction,and tension was predominant.After the earthquake,the principal strain field in the Sichuan area was compressive in the EW direction and tensile in the SN direction,and the compression was predominant.In the Yunnan area,it was tensional in the NE direction and compressive in the NW direction,and tension was predominant;(4) The surficial strain before the earthquake was dominated by superficial expansion,the contractive area being located basically in the east boundary of Sichuan and Yunnan block and its neighborhood.After the earthquake,the Sichuan area was surface contractive(the further north,the greater it was),and south of it was an area of superficial expansion.Generally speaking,the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake played an active role in the accumulation of energy in the Sichuan and Yunnan area.Special attention shall be focused on the segment of Xichang-Dongchuan and its neighborhood.展开更多
Spatial structures such as a gymnasium and an exhibition hall often use ceilings because of enhancing sound effects and reducing heating bills. Although the ceiling members fell down on a large scale due to the seismi...Spatial structures such as a gymnasium and an exhibition hall often use ceilings because of enhancing sound effects and reducing heating bills. Although the ceiling members fell down on a large scale due to the seismic motion according to the past great earthquake disaster reports, structural engineers particularly do not carry out the seismic design. The study gives structural engineers the equivalent static loads for the design of the earthquake-proof design of the ceiling system. In particular, it is significant to investigate the dynamic behavior and the applied seismic loads for the complicated vibration of the long span arch building structures with RC columns.展开更多
The high-precision GPS data observed from the northeast margin of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block and the Sichuan-Yunnan GPS monitoring areas in 1991 (1993), 1999 and 2001 revealed that: before the Kunlun earthq...The high-precision GPS data observed from the northeast margin of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block and the Sichuan-Yunnan GPS monitoring areas in 1991 (1993), 1999 and 2001 revealed that: before the Kunlun earthquake with Ms =8.1 on November 14, 2001, the dynamic variation features of horizontal movement-deformation field in the north and east marginal tectonic areas of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block had some correlated features. That is to say, under the general background of inherited movement, the movement intensifies in the two areas weakened synchronously and the state of deformation changed when the great earthquake was impending. Analysis and study in connection with geological structures showed that before the Kunlun Ms8.1 earthquake, the correlated variations of movement-deformation on the boundaries of Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block were related to the disturbing stress field caused by the extensive and rapid stress-strain accumulation in the late stage of large earthquake preparation. Owing to the occurrence of large earthquake inside the block, the release of large amount of strain energy, and the adjustment of tectonic stress field, in relevant structural positions (especially zones not penetrated by historical strong earthquake ruptures) in boundary zones where larger amount of strain energy was accumulated, stress-strain may be further accumulated or else released through rupture.展开更多
Studies of GPS data carried out before and after the great Wenchuan earthquake of Ms8.0 on May 12, 2008 show that anomalous crustal movements occurred before the earthquake. Data from 4 pre-earthquake observation sess...Studies of GPS data carried out before and after the great Wenchuan earthquake of Ms8.0 on May 12, 2008 show that anomalous crustal movements occurred before the earthquake. Data from 4 pre-earthquake observation sessions at a dense network of stations show that there were prominent broad-ranged long- and midterm anomalies in horizontal displacements and strain and in vertical displacements. Data from the fewer-numbered reference stations of continuous GPS observations since 1999 in West and South China showed short-term preseismic anomalies in horizontal displacements. The detection of co-seismic horizontal displacements at these stations supports the existence of the pre-earthquake anomalies. Results of single-epoch solutions of data from continuous-observation stations near the epicenter also show large imminent anomalies in vertical displacements. Although the Wenchuan earthquake was not predicted, these results give a strong indication that GPS should be the main observation technique for long-term, mid-term, short-term and imminent earthquake predictions.展开更多
Hainan Island is a seismic active region, where Qiongshan M7.5 earthquake occurred in 1605 and several seismic belts appeared in recent years, especially the NS trending seismic belt (NSB) located in the northeast p...Hainan Island is a seismic active region, where Qiongshan M7.5 earthquake occurred in 1605 and several seismic belts appeared in recent years, especially the NS trending seismic belt (NSB) located in the northeast part of the island. Here is also a magmatic active region. The lava from about 100 volcanoes covered more than 4000 km^2. The latest eruptions occurred on Ma'anling-Lei Huling volcanoes within 10,000 years. The neotectonic movement has been determined by geological method in the island and its adjacent areas. In the paper, the present-day 3D crustal movement is obtained by using Global Positioning System (GPS) data observed from 2009 to 2014 and leveling observations measured in 1970s and 1990s respectively. The results show the horizontal movement is mainly along SEE direction relative to the Eurasian Plate. The velocities are between 4.01 and 6.70 mm/a. The tension rate near the NSB is less than I mm/a. The vertical movement shows the island uplifts as a whole with respect to the reference benchmark Xiuyinggang. The average uplifting rate is 2.4 mm/a. The rates are 2-3 mm/a in the northwest and 3-5mm/a in the northwest. It shows the deformation pattern of the southwest island is upward relative to the northeast, which is different from the result inferred from the coastal change and GPS. Haikou and its adjacent region present a subsidence in a long time. The southern part of the middle segment of the Wangwu-Wenjiao fault uplifts relative to the northern. Meanwhile, the western part uplifts relative to the eastern NSB. The vertical crustal motion and the two normal faults nearly correspond to the terrain. The NSB is located along the Puqiangang-Dazhibo fault, which is assessed as a segmented fault with a dip of 80°-90° and party exposed. The 3D deformations and other studies reveal the present activities of earthquakes, volcanoes and the faults. The small earthquakes will still occur in the NS belt and the volcanoes are not active now.展开更多
In order to investigate the role of the amplification of peak ground acceleration(PGA) in seismic landslide formation mechanisms and study how earthquake waves interact with rock structures, a few strong-motion seismo...In order to investigate the role of the amplification of peak ground acceleration(PGA) in seismic landslide formation mechanisms and study how earthquake waves interact with rock structures, a few strong-motion seismometers are installed at various locations on both sides of the Lengzhuguan gully. Five strong-motion seismometers were triggered at different depths in a tunnel at the same altitude during the Kangding Ms 5.8 earthquake on November 25 th, 2014. The data reveal that the horizontal peak acceleration(PGA_H) at each site decreased with increasing site depths. The PGAH at the deepest monitoring site(99 m from the tunnel entrance) was approximately half that of the outermost site. The amplitude of the acceleration response spectrum was also attenuated from the entrance inwards, the dynamic magnification factor(β) of the standard acceleration spectrum was less than 3.5, and rate of change was the same as that for the amplitude acceleration response. The Fourier spectra of each monitoring site also decreased from the outside inwards, and the components of the Fourier spectra were more complex at the surface.展开更多
Based on the data from 4 times of repeated measurements (1996-1999) of GPS monitoring network arranged along Shanxi fault zone, the current horizontal movement of Shanxi fault zone and its relationship with Yangyuan-H...Based on the data from 4 times of repeated measurements (1996-1999) of GPS monitoring network arranged along Shanxi fault zone, the current horizontal movement of Shanxi fault zone and its relationship with Yangyuan-Hunyuan earthquake (M=5.6; 39.8°N, 113.9°E; November 1, 1999) which occurred at the north part of the monitoring network is analyzed. The results from the analysis indicate: (1) The horizontal movement along Shanxi fault zone was not obvious from 1996 to 1997; (2) The intensity of horizontal movement along Shanxi fault zone increased at the period of 1997 to 1998, and there are three areas with relatively higher strain (1×10-6) appeared, i.e., the source region, Xinzhou region and northeastern part of Jiexiu; (3) Although the dominant movement direction of Shanxi fault zone in the period of 1998 to 1999 was consistent with the fault striking direction, but as compared with the movement in the passed year, the direction was almost reversed, while the absolute value of the movement was close each other; (4) The accumulated horizontal movement along Shanxi fault zone from 1996 to 1999 became obvious gradually. It can be divided into three parts by considering its tendency: (a) the dominant direction of movement in north of Xinzhou is NNE (0.8 cm); (b) in south of Quwo it is SSW (1 cm); (c) in the central area it is rather complicated, the deformation in the southern part is little more large, but in the view of whole area there is no dominant movement exist. Generally speaking, Shanxi fault zone is mainly controlled by the NNE-SSW-trending extension stress field, but there is no strike-slip movement. In the period of 1997 to 1998, there might be a clear stress disturb and it was essentially recovered in 1999. Then the Yangyuan-Hunyuan earthquake occurred. Very possible, this disturb is the triggering to the earthquake.展开更多
By using GPS and gravity data before and after the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake and combining data from geological surveys and geophysical inversion studies, an initial coseismic fault model is constructed. The dip angle...By using GPS and gravity data before and after the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake and combining data from geological surveys and geophysical inversion studies, an initial coseismic fault model is constructed. The dip angle changes of the fault slip distribution on the fault plane are inversed, and the inversion results show that the shape of the fault resembles a double-shovel. The Yingxiue Beichuan Fault is approximately 330 km long, the surface fault dip angle is 65.1, which gradually reduces with increasing depth to 0 at the detachment layer at a depth of 19.62 km. The Guanxiane Jiangyou Fault is approximately90 km long, and its dip angle at the surface is 55.3, which gradually reduces with increasing depth; the fault joins the Yingxiue Beichuan Fault at 13.75 km. Coseismic slip mainly occurs above a depth of 19 km. There are five concentrated rupture areas, Yingxiu,Wenchuan, Hanwang, Beichuan, and Pingwu, which are consistent with geological survey results and analyses of the aftershock distribution. The rupture mainly has a thrust component with a small dextral strikeeslip component. The maximum slip was more than10 m, which occurred near Beichuan and Hanwang. The seismic moment is 7.84 1020 Nm(Mw7.9), which is consistent with the seismological results.展开更多
The recent plethora of GPS observations compensates for the 20-year-old lack in vertical displacement data for the Guanzhong region. The 2001—2007 three-dimensional(3D) crustal deformation data suggest regional mov...The recent plethora of GPS observations compensates for the 20-year-old lack in vertical displacement data for the Guanzhong region. The 2001—2007 three-dimensional(3D) crustal deformation data suggest regional movement with a horizontal velocity of 3—7 mm/a,predominantly from SSE in the west to SE in the east, and vertical inherited movement with velocity of -7 mm/a to 4 mm/a. After the Wenchuan earthquake, the GPS data suggest that the effect of the earthquake on the regional deformation is greater in the west than the east.The horizontal displacement increased during 2007—2008; however, the reverse was observed in 2008—2009. The vertical displacement in the western part of the region increased in 2008 and has been gradually returning to normal since 2009; however, in the eastern part,the effect of the earthquake remains.展开更多
Temporal changes in site effects are obtained using the HVSR(horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio) method and strong motion records after the M w 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan. Seismic data recorded between 1995 and...Temporal changes in site effects are obtained using the HVSR(horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio) method and strong motion records after the M w 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan. Seismic data recorded between 1995 and 2010 are used, comprising 3,708 data from 15 stations adjacent to the Chelungpu fault. Temporal fl uctuations are determined by analyzing the site effect variation using a time–frequency variation(TFV) diagram based on these seismic data. Stations adjacent to the fault show signifi cant disturbances in the resonance frequency at 16–26 Hz. Station TCU129 shows a 40% drop in fundamental frequency after the main shock, and a gradual return to the original state over nine years. For stations located farther from the fault zone, sudden changes in tectonic stress play a dominant role in temporal changes to the HVSR. An impact analysis of the directional factor confi rms our fi nding that the proximity of the fault to seismic stations has the most infl uence on data.展开更多
On Jan.31 of 2010,the Suining earthquake occurred at Suining City whch is located the center of Sichuan Basin.It is unusual for the strong earthquake to occur at the center of Sichuan Basin with a stable geotectonic e...On Jan.31 of 2010,the Suining earthquake occurred at Suining City whch is located the center of Sichuan Basin.It is unusual for the strong earthquake to occur at the center of Sichuan Basin with a stable geotectonic environment and a low-level historical seismicity.The macro-epicenter of the earthquake is located at Moxi town of Suining city,Sichuan province,China.The earthquake intensity of the epicenter area is degree VII,and the long axis of the isoseismal line trends in NE orientation.The Suining earthquake caused the collapse or destruction of 460 family houses.The earthquake focal mechanism solution and records of the near-field seismographic stations showed the earthquake occurred at the reverse fault at a depth 34 km.Based on the waveform and focal mechanism,we consider the Suning earthquake is triggered by the reverse fault and not by the gravitational collapse or man-made explosive sources.Basing on seismic refraction profile and borehole,we consider that the earthquake is triggered by the backthrust fault of Moxi anticline rooted in detachments at a depth 3-4 km.Furthermore,we infer that tectonic mechanism of the Suining(Ms5.0) Earthquake is driven by the horizontal crustal shortening and stress adjustment on a shallow detachment after the Wenchuan(Ms 8.0) earthquake.展开更多
On the basis of the velocity field results of horizontal crustal movement obtained from GPS measurements during the periods of 1993-1999, 1999-2001 and 2001-2003 in the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Xizang block, and...On the basis of the velocity field results of horizontal crustal movement obtained from GPS measurements during the periods of 1993-1999, 1999-2001 and 2001-2003 in the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Xizang block, and by the inversion of negative dislocation model for the elastic block boundaries, we provide in this paper a qualitative analysis and quantitative description for the difference of motion and deformation between the tectonic blocks and their boundary faults, time-space distribution of tectonic strain field, and locations with highly accumulated strain energy and correlative intensity. Furthermore, taking the regional tectonics and block strain into full consideration, we investigate the common features of background precursors relating to location prediction for M greater than or equal 6 earthquakes.展开更多
The existence of the principal directions of the ground motion based on Arias intensity is well-known. These principal directions do not necessarily coincide with the orientations of recording sensors or with the orie...The existence of the principal directions of the ground motion based on Arias intensity is well-known. These principal directions do not necessarily coincide with the orientations of recording sensors or with the orientations along which the ground motion parameters such as the peak ground acceleration and the pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) are maximum. This is evidenced by the fact that the maximum PSA at different natural vibration periods for horizontal excitations do not correspond to the same orientation. A recent analysis carried out for California earthquake records suggests that an orientation-dependent ground motion measurement for horizontal excitations can be developed. The main objective of this study is to investigate and provide seismic ground motion measurements in the horizontal plane, including bidirectional horizontal ground motions, for Mexican interplate and inslab earthquake records. Extensive statistical analyses of PSA are conducted for the assessment. The analysis results suggest that similar to the case of California records, the average behavior of the ratio of the PSA to the maximum resulting PSA can be approximated by a quarter of an ellipse in one quadrant; and that the ratio can be considered to be independent of the value of the maximum resulting PSA, earthquake magnitude, earthquake distance and the focal depth. Sets of response ratios and attenuation relationships that can be used to represent a bidirectional horizontal ground motion measurement for Mexican interplate and inslab earthquakes were also developed.展开更多
The study of postseismic deformation is important for constraining the viscoelastic properties of the Earth and inverting the post-earthquake process.The levelling survey revealed that the area near Bei-chuan elevated...The study of postseismic deformation is important for constraining the viscoelastic properties of the Earth and inverting the post-earthquake process.The levelling survey revealed that the area near Bei-chuan elevated 5.3 cm about two years after the M_(W) 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake(05/12/2008),during which the area underwent significant downward movement.The GPS horizontal displacements showed a non-monotonic variation after the Wenchuan earthquake.In this study,a 3-D viscoelastic finite element model is employed to simulate the coseismic and postseismic deformation of the Wenchuan earthquake.The numerical simulations show that the lateral heterogeneity across the Longmenshan fault plays an important role in the postseismic displacements.The results reveal that the coseismic defor-mation is not sensitive to the horizontal heterogeneity,but the postseismic deformation is sensitive to it.The postseismic deformation of the horizontally heterogeneous model is generally consistent with the observations of all geodetic surveys,such as GPS,InSAR and levelling,but not for the horizontally homogenous model.We also find that the non-monotonous variation of the postseismic deformation of the Wenchuan earthquake could be explained by a viscoelastic relaxation model with lateral heterogeneous medium across the Longmenshan fault.展开更多
Studies by many scientists show that Hebei, China is an area with strong correlation between the tidal force and the occurrences of major earthquakes, the Xingtai earthquake of 1966, the Hejian earthquake of 1967 and ...Studies by many scientists show that Hebei, China is an area with strong correlation between the tidal force and the occurrences of major earthquakes, the Xingtai earthquake of 1966, the Hejian earthquake of 1967 and the Tangshan earthquake of 1976 were triggered by the tidal force, in this paper the study on the common characteristics of their occurrence times confirms these facts. The computed times of maximum horizontal of the semi diurnal solid tide tidal force show that the occurrence times of the above mentioned earthquakes were close to the times of maximum horizontal tidal force of the semi diurnal solid tide at new moon or full moon. The Longyao earthquake of M =6.8, the Ningjin earthquake of M =7.2 and the Hejian earthquake of M =6.3 occurred tens of minutes after the maximum horizontal tidal force of the semi diurnal solid tides, and the Tangshan earthquake of M =7.8 occurred 16 minutes before the maximum horizontal tidal force. The tidal forces were directed to the west. This is their temporal characteristic. It is generally accepted that the 1969 Bohai earthquake of M =7.4 and the 1975 Haicheng earthquake were not triggered by the tidal force. These events did not show such characteristics. The temporal characteristics of the earthquakes indicate that the occurrences of these events were not random, but were controlled by the tidal force from the sun and the moon, and triggered by the tidal force. These facts agree with the triggering mechanism of the tidal force, are evidences of earthquakes triggered by tidal force.展开更多
On the basis of the previous studies of the layered crustal model in the Yutian area,combined with the field GPS continuous observation data,we roughly estimate the viscous coefficient of each layer. With the viscoela...On the basis of the previous studies of the layered crustal model in the Yutian area,combined with the field GPS continuous observation data,we roughly estimate the viscous coefficient of each layer. With the viscoelastic horizontal layer model,we calculate the viscoelastic co-seismic Coulomb stress change caused by the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes 2008 and 2014 respectively. Based on the Coulomb stress change,using the calculation method of "direct "aftershock frequency,we come up with the theoretical earthquake frequency directly related to the mainshock and the co-seismic Coulomb stress change in the study area. Then we put forward a method,based on the comparison of theoretical and actual earthquake frequency or the comparison between theoretical and practical earthquake frequency-distance decay curve fitting residuals,to estimate the magnitude of a maximum sequent earthquake,directly related to the mainshock co-seismic Coulomb stress change. Results calculated by different methods show that the maximum follow-up earthquake magnitude caused by the coseismic Coulomb stress change lies from M_S7. 2 to M_S7. 5 following Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2008; but that of the 2014 Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake is M_S6. 3. The former is very close to the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2014.Because of the same magnitude,relatively close spatial distance,short time interval,the same region of the external force,the strong correlation between two seismic tectonic and a clear stress interaction,we thus consider that the two Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes in 2008 and 2014 constitute a pair of generalized double shock type earthquake. This is consistent with the sequence type characteristic of past "double shock"earthquakes in the region. In this paper,the influence of the magnitude lower limit and the b-value in the relationship of G-R on the results is discussed. As a result,when the viscoelastic coseismic Coulomb stress variation is determined,the lower limit of magnitude has little effect on the maximum sequent earthquake magnitude estimation,but b-value of G-R has a greater impact on the results.展开更多
By processing and analyzing geodetic data of vertical deformation, fault deformation and horizontal deformation by GPS in Gansu Ningxia Qinghai area and by comparing them with geological structures and many medium to ...By processing and analyzing geodetic data of vertical deformation, fault deformation and horizontal deformation by GPS in Gansu Ningxia Qinghai area and by comparing them with geological structures and many medium to strong earthquake activities in this area, some features of recent tectonic deformation anomaly and the development of medium to strong earthquakes are studied. The results show that: ①Near the main faults tectonic deformations are relatively large. The amount of vertical movement and the deformation status evolve with time. The horizontal movement and deformation show obvious compressional strike slip character. ②The dominant stress of tectonic deformation and seismic development in this area comes from the persistent northeastward compression of Qinghai Tibet block;The time spatial distribution evolution of tectonic deformation and seismic activities are closely related to dynamic evolution of block motion and regional tectonic stress field. ③The abnormal uplift and high gradient deformation belts and remarkable fault deformation anormaly on the borders of regional tectonic blocks are indicators of developing moderate to strong earthquakes but earthquakes may not necessarily take place in the position of maxium deformation, it usually occurred in the region where fault deformation anormaly shows “trend accumulation acceleration turn ” variation character or nearby. On the basis of above study, a preliminary prediction for strong earthquake risk in this area is given.展开更多
基金supported by National Key Technology Research and Development Program (2006BAC01B02-02-05)Basic Research Plan of the Institute of Earthquake Science,China Earthquake Administration (0207690239)
文摘The great Wenchuan earthquake of M8.0 on May 12, 2008, occurred in an area with dense GPS observation stations in the regional network of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC). Non-continuous observations were carried out at the 1 000 GPS stations of the regional network in 1999, 2001, 2004 and 2007. The horizontal displacements at GPS stations in the regional network before the Wenchuan earthquake show that the main driving tectonic force of the earthquake was the northward pushing of the Indian plate, added at the same time by the pushing of plates on the east and south. In comparison to the displacements in other regions, the horizontal displacements near and around the seismic area is characterized by diverging eastward displacements, that is, the stations to the north of the epicenter moved in the ENE direction while those to the south of epicenter moved in ESE direction with smaller displacements at stations near the epicenter. The accuracy of the estimated strain results is briefly discussed. In order to obtain the anomalous information before the earthquake, the methods of both best fits by trend surface and statistics have been used in the study for finding the future epicentral area from the strain accumulations in the regional network observed from 1999 to 2007 before the Wenchuan earthquake. Besides the epicentral area of the western Kunlun mountain pass earthquake of M8.1 in 2001, the results of best fits by trend surfaces of the strain accumulations from 1999 to 2007 in the regional network show that the Wenchuan earthquake occurred at the eastern fringe of a large area with relatively large accumulations of the first shear strains and also at the northeastern fringe of a smaller area with significant accumulated areal compressions. The statistics of the accumulations of the strain components demonstrates that they also showed anomalous distribution pattems in this area and its neighborhood with increasing accumulations of both shear strains and areal compressions.
基金support by National Natural Science Foundation of China(51479163,41174083)
文摘An Ms6.4 earthquake occurred in the Menyuan county of Qinghai Province on Jan 21, 2016. In order to recognize the development of horizontal deformation and distinguish precursory deformation anomalies, we obtained coordinates time series, velocity and strain model around the seismic zones from processing of continuous observations from 2010 and 6 times of surveying Global Positioning System (GPS) data since 2009. The results show that, before the earthquake, the eastern segmentation of the Qilian tectonic zone where the Lenglongling Fault located is in strong crustal shortening and compressional strain state with dilatational rates of -15 to -25 ppb. The Lenglongling Fault has a strike-slip rate of 3.1 mm/a and a far-field differential orthogonal rate of 7 mm/a, while differential rate is only 1.2 mm/a near the fault, which reflects its locking feature with strain energy accumulation and high seismic risks. Dynamic evolution of deformation model shows that preevent dilatational rates around the seismic zones increases from 15 ppb/a to -20 ppb/a with its center moving to the source areas. Time series of N components of G337 station, which is 13.7 km away from the Lenglongling Fault, exhibit a 5 mm/a acceleration anomaly. Time series of base-station QHME (in Menyuan) displays a reverse acceleration from the end of Sep. to Dec., 2016 when it comes to a largest deviation, and the accumulative displacement is more than 4 mm and the value reverse till the earthquake. In our results, coseismic displacement of N, E, U components in QHME site are 3.0 mm, 3.0 mm, -5.4 mm, respectively. If we profile these values onto the Lenglongling Fault, we can achieve a 1.1 mm of strike slip and 4.1 mm updip slip relative to the hanging wall.
基金This project is sponsored by the National Support of Science and Technology Research"Study on Techniques for Monitoring and Predicting of Strong Earthquake"and the Joint Earthquake Science Foundation of CEA(A07066),China
文摘In order to track the space-time variation of regional strain field holistically(in a large scale) and to describe the regional movement field more objectively,the paper uses a nonlinear continuous strain model focused on extracting medium-low frequency strain information on the basis of a region with no rotation.According to the repeated measurements(1999~2001~2004) from GPS monitoring stations in the Sichuan and Yunnan area obtained by the Project of "China Crust Movement Measuring Network",and with the movement of 1999~2001(stage deformation background) as the basic reference,we separated the main influencing factors of the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake in 2001 from the data of 2001 and 2004,and the results indicate:(1) the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake has a discriminating effect on the Sichuan and Yunnan area,moreover,the deformation mode and background had not only certain similitude but also some diversity;(2) The movement field before the earthquake was very ordinal,while after the earthquake,order and disorder existed simultaneously in the displacement field;The displacement quantities of GPS monitoring stations were generally several millimeters;(3) The principal strain field before earthquake was basically tensile in an approximate EW direction and compressive in the SN direction,and tension was predominant.After the earthquake,the principal strain field in the Sichuan area was compressive in the EW direction and tensile in the SN direction,and the compression was predominant.In the Yunnan area,it was tensional in the NE direction and compressive in the NW direction,and tension was predominant;(4) The surficial strain before the earthquake was dominated by superficial expansion,the contractive area being located basically in the east boundary of Sichuan and Yunnan block and its neighborhood.After the earthquake,the Sichuan area was surface contractive(the further north,the greater it was),and south of it was an area of superficial expansion.Generally speaking,the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake played an active role in the accumulation of energy in the Sichuan and Yunnan area.Special attention shall be focused on the segment of Xichang-Dongchuan and its neighborhood.
文摘Spatial structures such as a gymnasium and an exhibition hall often use ceilings because of enhancing sound effects and reducing heating bills. Although the ceiling members fell down on a large scale due to the seismic motion according to the past great earthquake disaster reports, structural engineers particularly do not carry out the seismic design. The study gives structural engineers the equivalent static loads for the design of the earthquake-proof design of the ceiling system. In particular, it is significant to investigate the dynamic behavior and the applied seismic loads for the complicated vibration of the long span arch building structures with RC columns.
文摘The high-precision GPS data observed from the northeast margin of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block and the Sichuan-Yunnan GPS monitoring areas in 1991 (1993), 1999 and 2001 revealed that: before the Kunlun earthquake with Ms =8.1 on November 14, 2001, the dynamic variation features of horizontal movement-deformation field in the north and east marginal tectonic areas of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block had some correlated features. That is to say, under the general background of inherited movement, the movement intensifies in the two areas weakened synchronously and the state of deformation changed when the great earthquake was impending. Analysis and study in connection with geological structures showed that before the Kunlun Ms8.1 earthquake, the correlated variations of movement-deformation on the boundaries of Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block were related to the disturbing stress field caused by the extensive and rapid stress-strain accumulation in the late stage of large earthquake preparation. Owing to the occurrence of large earthquake inside the block, the release of large amount of strain energy, and the adjustment of tectonic stress field, in relevant structural positions (especially zones not penetrated by historical strong earthquake ruptures) in boundary zones where larger amount of strain energy was accumulated, stress-strain may be further accumulated or else released through rupture.
基金supported by the National 973 Program of China(2008CB425704)
文摘Studies of GPS data carried out before and after the great Wenchuan earthquake of Ms8.0 on May 12, 2008 show that anomalous crustal movements occurred before the earthquake. Data from 4 pre-earthquake observation sessions at a dense network of stations show that there were prominent broad-ranged long- and midterm anomalies in horizontal displacements and strain and in vertical displacements. Data from the fewer-numbered reference stations of continuous GPS observations since 1999 in West and South China showed short-term preseismic anomalies in horizontal displacements. The detection of co-seismic horizontal displacements at these stations supports the existence of the pre-earthquake anomalies. Results of single-epoch solutions of data from continuous-observation stations near the epicenter also show large imminent anomalies in vertical displacements. Although the Wenchuan earthquake was not predicted, these results give a strong indication that GPS should be the main observation technique for long-term, mid-term, short-term and imminent earthquake predictions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41372345)
文摘Hainan Island is a seismic active region, where Qiongshan M7.5 earthquake occurred in 1605 and several seismic belts appeared in recent years, especially the NS trending seismic belt (NSB) located in the northeast part of the island. Here is also a magmatic active region. The lava from about 100 volcanoes covered more than 4000 km^2. The latest eruptions occurred on Ma'anling-Lei Huling volcanoes within 10,000 years. The neotectonic movement has been determined by geological method in the island and its adjacent areas. In the paper, the present-day 3D crustal movement is obtained by using Global Positioning System (GPS) data observed from 2009 to 2014 and leveling observations measured in 1970s and 1990s respectively. The results show the horizontal movement is mainly along SEE direction relative to the Eurasian Plate. The velocities are between 4.01 and 6.70 mm/a. The tension rate near the NSB is less than I mm/a. The vertical movement shows the island uplifts as a whole with respect to the reference benchmark Xiuyinggang. The average uplifting rate is 2.4 mm/a. The rates are 2-3 mm/a in the northwest and 3-5mm/a in the northwest. It shows the deformation pattern of the southwest island is upward relative to the northeast, which is different from the result inferred from the coastal change and GPS. Haikou and its adjacent region present a subsidence in a long time. The southern part of the middle segment of the Wangwu-Wenjiao fault uplifts relative to the northern. Meanwhile, the western part uplifts relative to the eastern NSB. The vertical crustal motion and the two normal faults nearly correspond to the terrain. The NSB is located along the Puqiangang-Dazhibo fault, which is assessed as a segmented fault with a dip of 80°-90° and party exposed. The 3D deformations and other studies reveal the present activities of earthquakes, volcanoes and the faults. The small earthquakes will still occur in the NS belt and the volcanoes are not active now.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51408086)the Opening Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and GeoenvironmentalProtection (Chengdu University of Technology) (SKLGP2015Z001)
文摘In order to investigate the role of the amplification of peak ground acceleration(PGA) in seismic landslide formation mechanisms and study how earthquake waves interact with rock structures, a few strong-motion seismometers are installed at various locations on both sides of the Lengzhuguan gully. Five strong-motion seismometers were triggered at different depths in a tunnel at the same altitude during the Kangding Ms 5.8 earthquake on November 25 th, 2014. The data reveal that the horizontal peak acceleration(PGA_H) at each site decreased with increasing site depths. The PGAH at the deepest monitoring site(99 m from the tunnel entrance) was approximately half that of the outermost site. The amplitude of the acceleration response spectrum was also attenuated from the entrance inwards, the dynamic magnification factor(β) of the standard acceleration spectrum was less than 3.5, and rate of change was the same as that for the amplitude acceleration response. The Fourier spectra of each monitoring site also decreased from the outside inwards, and the components of the Fourier spectra were more complex at the surface.
基金The Project (Continental Geodynamics and Continental Earthquakes! (95-13-03-06).
文摘Based on the data from 4 times of repeated measurements (1996-1999) of GPS monitoring network arranged along Shanxi fault zone, the current horizontal movement of Shanxi fault zone and its relationship with Yangyuan-Hunyuan earthquake (M=5.6; 39.8°N, 113.9°E; November 1, 1999) which occurred at the north part of the monitoring network is analyzed. The results from the analysis indicate: (1) The horizontal movement along Shanxi fault zone was not obvious from 1996 to 1997; (2) The intensity of horizontal movement along Shanxi fault zone increased at the period of 1997 to 1998, and there are three areas with relatively higher strain (1×10-6) appeared, i.e., the source region, Xinzhou region and northeastern part of Jiexiu; (3) Although the dominant movement direction of Shanxi fault zone in the period of 1998 to 1999 was consistent with the fault striking direction, but as compared with the movement in the passed year, the direction was almost reversed, while the absolute value of the movement was close each other; (4) The accumulated horizontal movement along Shanxi fault zone from 1996 to 1999 became obvious gradually. It can be divided into three parts by considering its tendency: (a) the dominant direction of movement in north of Xinzhou is NNE (0.8 cm); (b) in south of Quwo it is SSW (1 cm); (c) in the central area it is rather complicated, the deformation in the southern part is little more large, but in the view of whole area there is no dominant movement exist. Generally speaking, Shanxi fault zone is mainly controlled by the NNE-SSW-trending extension stress field, but there is no strike-slip movement. In the period of 1997 to 1998, there might be a clear stress disturb and it was essentially recovered in 1999. Then the Yangyuan-Hunyuan earthquake occurred. Very possible, this disturb is the triggering to the earthquake.
基金supported by the China Earthquake Administration, Institute of Seismology Foundation (IS201226003, IS201326128)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41104049)the National Basic Research Program of China (2013CB733304-2)
文摘By using GPS and gravity data before and after the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake and combining data from geological surveys and geophysical inversion studies, an initial coseismic fault model is constructed. The dip angle changes of the fault slip distribution on the fault plane are inversed, and the inversion results show that the shape of the fault resembles a double-shovel. The Yingxiue Beichuan Fault is approximately 330 km long, the surface fault dip angle is 65.1, which gradually reduces with increasing depth to 0 at the detachment layer at a depth of 19.62 km. The Guanxiane Jiangyou Fault is approximately90 km long, and its dip angle at the surface is 55.3, which gradually reduces with increasing depth; the fault joins the Yingxiue Beichuan Fault at 13.75 km. Coseismic slip mainly occurs above a depth of 19 km. There are five concentrated rupture areas, Yingxiu,Wenchuan, Hanwang, Beichuan, and Pingwu, which are consistent with geological survey results and analyses of the aftershock distribution. The rupture mainly has a thrust component with a small dextral strikeeslip component. The maximum slip was more than10 m, which occurred near Beichuan and Hanwang. The seismic moment is 7.84 1020 Nm(Mw7.9), which is consistent with the seismological results.
基金supported by the Shanxi Science and Technology Research and Development program(2012SF2-17)National Nature Science Foundation of China(41174083)
文摘The recent plethora of GPS observations compensates for the 20-year-old lack in vertical displacement data for the Guanzhong region. The 2001—2007 three-dimensional(3D) crustal deformation data suggest regional movement with a horizontal velocity of 3—7 mm/a,predominantly from SSE in the west to SE in the east, and vertical inherited movement with velocity of -7 mm/a to 4 mm/a. After the Wenchuan earthquake, the GPS data suggest that the effect of the earthquake on the regional deformation is greater in the west than the east.The horizontal displacement increased during 2007—2008; however, the reverse was observed in 2008—2009. The vertical displacement in the western part of the region increased in 2008 and has been gradually returning to normal since 2009; however, in the eastern part,the effect of the earthquake remains.
文摘Temporal changes in site effects are obtained using the HVSR(horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio) method and strong motion records after the M w 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan. Seismic data recorded between 1995 and 2010 are used, comprising 3,708 data from 15 stations adjacent to the Chelungpu fault. Temporal fl uctuations are determined by analyzing the site effect variation using a time–frequency variation(TFV) diagram based on these seismic data. Stations adjacent to the fault show signifi cant disturbances in the resonance frequency at 16–26 Hz. Station TCU129 shows a 40% drop in fundamental frequency after the main shock, and a gradual return to the original state over nine years. For stations located farther from the fault zone, sudden changes in tectonic stress play a dominant role in temporal changes to the HVSR. An impact analysis of the directional factor confi rms our fi nding that the proximity of the fault to seismic stations has the most infl uence on data.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40841010,40972083,41172162)the National Science and Technology Support Program (Grant nNo. 2006BAC13B02-107,2006BAC13B01-604) for the funding
文摘On Jan.31 of 2010,the Suining earthquake occurred at Suining City whch is located the center of Sichuan Basin.It is unusual for the strong earthquake to occur at the center of Sichuan Basin with a stable geotectonic environment and a low-level historical seismicity.The macro-epicenter of the earthquake is located at Moxi town of Suining city,Sichuan province,China.The earthquake intensity of the epicenter area is degree VII,and the long axis of the isoseismal line trends in NE orientation.The Suining earthquake caused the collapse or destruction of 460 family houses.The earthquake focal mechanism solution and records of the near-field seismographic stations showed the earthquake occurred at the reverse fault at a depth 34 km.Based on the waveform and focal mechanism,we consider the Suning earthquake is triggered by the reverse fault and not by the gravitational collapse or man-made explosive sources.Basing on seismic refraction profile and borehole,we consider that the earthquake is triggered by the backthrust fault of Moxi anticline rooted in detachments at a depth 3-4 km.Furthermore,we infer that tectonic mechanism of the Suining(Ms5.0) Earthquake is driven by the horizontal crustal shortening and stress adjustment on a shallow detachment after the Wenchuan(Ms 8.0) earthquake.
基金Joint Seismological Science Foundation (603001)Project of China Earthquake Administration during the tenth five-year (100501-04).
文摘On the basis of the velocity field results of horizontal crustal movement obtained from GPS measurements during the periods of 1993-1999, 1999-2001 and 2001-2003 in the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Xizang block, and by the inversion of negative dislocation model for the elastic block boundaries, we provide in this paper a qualitative analysis and quantitative description for the difference of motion and deformation between the tectonic blocks and their boundary faults, time-space distribution of tectonic strain field, and locations with highly accumulated strain energy and correlative intensity. Furthermore, taking the regional tectonics and block strain into full consideration, we investigate the common features of background precursors relating to location prediction for M greater than or equal 6 earthquakes.
基金Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the University of Western Ontario and the National Council of Science and Technology (CONACyT) of Mexico
文摘The existence of the principal directions of the ground motion based on Arias intensity is well-known. These principal directions do not necessarily coincide with the orientations of recording sensors or with the orientations along which the ground motion parameters such as the peak ground acceleration and the pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) are maximum. This is evidenced by the fact that the maximum PSA at different natural vibration periods for horizontal excitations do not correspond to the same orientation. A recent analysis carried out for California earthquake records suggests that an orientation-dependent ground motion measurement for horizontal excitations can be developed. The main objective of this study is to investigate and provide seismic ground motion measurements in the horizontal plane, including bidirectional horizontal ground motions, for Mexican interplate and inslab earthquake records. Extensive statistical analyses of PSA are conducted for the assessment. The analysis results suggest that similar to the case of California records, the average behavior of the ratio of the PSA to the maximum resulting PSA can be approximated by a quarter of an ellipse in one quadrant; and that the ratio can be considered to be independent of the value of the maximum resulting PSA, earthquake magnitude, earthquake distance and the focal depth. Sets of response ratios and attenuation relationships that can be used to represent a bidirectional horizontal ground motion measurement for Mexican interplate and inslab earthquakes were also developed.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China(42074105,41674096)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK20131033)。
文摘The study of postseismic deformation is important for constraining the viscoelastic properties of the Earth and inverting the post-earthquake process.The levelling survey revealed that the area near Bei-chuan elevated 5.3 cm about two years after the M_(W) 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake(05/12/2008),during which the area underwent significant downward movement.The GPS horizontal displacements showed a non-monotonic variation after the Wenchuan earthquake.In this study,a 3-D viscoelastic finite element model is employed to simulate the coseismic and postseismic deformation of the Wenchuan earthquake.The numerical simulations show that the lateral heterogeneity across the Longmenshan fault plays an important role in the postseismic displacements.The results reveal that the coseismic defor-mation is not sensitive to the horizontal heterogeneity,but the postseismic deformation is sensitive to it.The postseismic deformation of the horizontally heterogeneous model is generally consistent with the observations of all geodetic surveys,such as GPS,InSAR and levelling,but not for the horizontally homogenous model.We also find that the non-monotonous variation of the postseismic deformation of the Wenchuan earthquake could be explained by a viscoelastic relaxation model with lateral heterogeneous medium across the Longmenshan fault.
文摘Studies by many scientists show that Hebei, China is an area with strong correlation between the tidal force and the occurrences of major earthquakes, the Xingtai earthquake of 1966, the Hejian earthquake of 1967 and the Tangshan earthquake of 1976 were triggered by the tidal force, in this paper the study on the common characteristics of their occurrence times confirms these facts. The computed times of maximum horizontal of the semi diurnal solid tide tidal force show that the occurrence times of the above mentioned earthquakes were close to the times of maximum horizontal tidal force of the semi diurnal solid tide at new moon or full moon. The Longyao earthquake of M =6.8, the Ningjin earthquake of M =7.2 and the Hejian earthquake of M =6.3 occurred tens of minutes after the maximum horizontal tidal force of the semi diurnal solid tides, and the Tangshan earthquake of M =7.8 occurred 16 minutes before the maximum horizontal tidal force. The tidal forces were directed to the west. This is their temporal characteristic. It is generally accepted that the 1969 Bohai earthquake of M =7.4 and the 1975 Haicheng earthquake were not triggered by the tidal force. These events did not show such characteristics. The temporal characteristics of the earthquakes indicate that the occurrences of these events were not random, but were controlled by the tidal force from the sun and the moon, and triggered by the tidal force. These facts agree with the triggering mechanism of the tidal force, are evidences of earthquakes triggered by tidal force.
基金sponsored by the Scientific Research Fund of the Department of Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction,CEA
文摘On the basis of the previous studies of the layered crustal model in the Yutian area,combined with the field GPS continuous observation data,we roughly estimate the viscous coefficient of each layer. With the viscoelastic horizontal layer model,we calculate the viscoelastic co-seismic Coulomb stress change caused by the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes 2008 and 2014 respectively. Based on the Coulomb stress change,using the calculation method of "direct "aftershock frequency,we come up with the theoretical earthquake frequency directly related to the mainshock and the co-seismic Coulomb stress change in the study area. Then we put forward a method,based on the comparison of theoretical and actual earthquake frequency or the comparison between theoretical and practical earthquake frequency-distance decay curve fitting residuals,to estimate the magnitude of a maximum sequent earthquake,directly related to the mainshock co-seismic Coulomb stress change. Results calculated by different methods show that the maximum follow-up earthquake magnitude caused by the coseismic Coulomb stress change lies from M_S7. 2 to M_S7. 5 following Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2008; but that of the 2014 Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake is M_S6. 3. The former is very close to the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2014.Because of the same magnitude,relatively close spatial distance,short time interval,the same region of the external force,the strong correlation between two seismic tectonic and a clear stress interaction,we thus consider that the two Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes in 2008 and 2014 constitute a pair of generalized double shock type earthquake. This is consistent with the sequence type characteristic of past "double shock"earthquakes in the region. In this paper,the influence of the magnitude lower limit and the b-value in the relationship of G-R on the results is discussed. As a result,when the viscoelastic coseismic Coulomb stress variation is determined,the lower limit of magnitude has little effect on the maximum sequent earthquake magnitude estimation,but b-value of G-R has a greater impact on the results.
文摘By processing and analyzing geodetic data of vertical deformation, fault deformation and horizontal deformation by GPS in Gansu Ningxia Qinghai area and by comparing them with geological structures and many medium to strong earthquake activities in this area, some features of recent tectonic deformation anomaly and the development of medium to strong earthquakes are studied. The results show that: ①Near the main faults tectonic deformations are relatively large. The amount of vertical movement and the deformation status evolve with time. The horizontal movement and deformation show obvious compressional strike slip character. ②The dominant stress of tectonic deformation and seismic development in this area comes from the persistent northeastward compression of Qinghai Tibet block;The time spatial distribution evolution of tectonic deformation and seismic activities are closely related to dynamic evolution of block motion and regional tectonic stress field. ③The abnormal uplift and high gradient deformation belts and remarkable fault deformation anormaly on the borders of regional tectonic blocks are indicators of developing moderate to strong earthquakes but earthquakes may not necessarily take place in the position of maxium deformation, it usually occurred in the region where fault deformation anormaly shows “trend accumulation acceleration turn ” variation character or nearby. On the basis of above study, a preliminary prediction for strong earthquake risk in this area is given.