Comparison of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models in determining moisture recycling ratio

Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.

COMPLETE CONVERGENCE OF ERROR VARIANCE ESITIMATES UNDER Ф－MIXING ERROR IN LINEAR MODELS

In this paper,we consider the estimates d of error variance d2=Var(ei) in the linear models Yi=x' iβ+ei(i= 1, 2, ... ). We study the complete convergence of dm2-o2 when the error {ei }is a sequence of identically distributed p-mixing variables. And we also obtain the better convergence rates when {ei} is not identically distribution

Use of Linear Spectral Mixture Model to Estimate Rice Planted Area Based on MODIS Data

MODIS （Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer） is a key instrument aboard the Terra （EOS AM） and Aqua （EOS PM） satellites. Linear spectral mixture models are applied to MOIDS data for the sub-pixel classification of land covers. Shaoxing county of Zhejiang Province in China was chosen to be the study site and early rice was selected as the study crop. The derived proportions of land covers from MODIS pixel using linear spectral mixture models were compared with unsupervised classification derived from TM data acquired on the same day, which implies that MODIS data could be used as satellite data source for rice cultivation area estimation, possibly rice growth monitoring and yield forecasting on the regional scale.

CLUSTERING POPULATIONS BY MIXED LINEAR MODELS

Two mixed linear models are proposed for grouping populations by a dissimilarity coefficent which has two parameters for squared difference of marginal mean and variance component of interaction.Cluster trees can be constructed by the mixed linear model approaches for experimental data with sampling errors within populations or with some missing values.Unweighted pair-group method ( UPGM ) is suggested as fusion method. Sampling variances of estimated dissimilarity coefficient can be obtained by the jackknife procedure.A one-tail t-test is applicable for detecting significance of dissimilarity of populaions within specific group.Unbiasedness and efficiency for estimation of dissimilarity coefficients are proved by Monte Carolo simulations.Worked example from cotton yield data is given for demonstration of the use of these cluster methods.

IMPROVED ESTIMATES OF THE COVARIANCE MATRIX IN GENERAL LINEAR MIXED MODELS

In this article, the problem of estimating the covariance matrix in general linear mixed models is considered. Two new classes of estimators obtained by shrinking the eigenvalues towards the origin and the arithmetic mean, respectively, are proposed. It is shown that these new estimators dominate the unbiased estimator under the squared error loss function. Finally, some simulation results to compare the performance of the proposed estimators with that of the unbiased estimator are reported. The simulation results indicate that these new shrinkage estimators provide a substantial improvement in risk under most situations.

ROBUST ESTIMATION IN PARTIAL LINEAR MIXED MODEL FOR LONGITUDINAL DATA

In this article, robust generalized estimating equation for the analysis of partial linear mixed model for longitudinal data is used. The authors approximate the nonparametric function by a regression spline. Under some regular conditions, the asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained. To avoid the computation of high-dimensional integral, a robust Monte Carlo Newton-Raphson algorithm is used. Some simulations are carried out to study the performance of the proposed robust estimators. In addition, the authors also study the robustness and the efficiency of the proposed estimators by simulation. Finally, two real longitudinal data sets are analyzed.

Responses of River Runoff to Climate Change Based on Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model in Chaohe River Basin of Hebei Province, China

Taking the nonlinear nature of runoff system into account,and combining auto-regression method and multi-regression method,a Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model (NMR) was established to analyze the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on annual river runoff process. The model was calibrated and verified by using BP neural network with observed meteorological and runoff data from Daiying Hydrological Station in the Chaohe River of Hebei Province in 1956–2000. Compared with auto-regression model,linear multi-regression model and linear mixed regression model,NMR can improve forecasting precision remarkably. Therefore,the simulation of climate change scenarios was carried out by NMR. The results show that the nonlinear mixed regression model can simulate annual river runoff well.

Adaptive Random Effects/Coefficients Modeling

Adaptive fractional polynomial modeling of general correlated outcomes is formulated to address nonlinearity in means, variances/dispersions, and correlations. Means and variances/dispersions are modeled using generalized linear models in fixed effects/coefficients. Correlations are modeled using random effects/coefficients. Nonlinearity is addressed using power transforms of primary (untransformed) predictors. Parameter estimation is based on extended linear mixed modeling generalizing both generalized estimating equations and linear mixed modeling. Models are evaluated using likelihood cross-validation (LCV) scores and are generated adaptively using a heuristic search controlled by LCV scores. Cases covered include linear, Poisson, logistic, exponential, and discrete regression of correlated continuous, count/rate, dichotomous, positive continuous, and discrete numeric outcomes treated as normally, Poisson, Bernoulli, exponentially, and discrete numerically distributed, respectively. Example analyses are also generated for these five cases to compare adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes to previously developed adaptive modeling based on directly specified covariance structures. Adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling substantially outperforms direct covariance modeling in the linear, exponential, and discrete regression example analyses. It generates equivalent results in the logistic regression example analyses and it is substantially outperformed in the Poisson regression case. Random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes can provide substantial improvements in model selection compared to directly specified covariance modeling. However, directly specified covariance modeling can generate competitive or substantially better results in some cases while usually requiring less computation time.

Statistical Inference in Generalized Linear Mixed Models by Joint Modelling Mean and Covariance of Non-Normal Random Effects

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) are typically constructed by incorporating random effects into the linear predictor. The random effects are usually assumed to be normally distributed with mean zero and variance-covariance identity matrix. In this paper, we propose to release random effects to non-normal distributions and discuss how to model the mean and covariance structures in GLMMs simultaneously. Parameter estimation is solved by using Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method through iterative Newton-Raphson (NR) algorithm very well in terms of accuracy and stabilization, which is demonstrated by real binary salamander mating data analysis and simulation studies.

Impacts of the Minimum Purchase Price Policy for Grain on the Planting Area of Rice in Hubei Province Based on a Mixed Linear Model

Impacts of the minimum purchase price policy for grain on the planting area of rice in Hubei Province were analyzed based on a mixed linear model.After the indicator system containing the minimum purchase price policy and other factors influencing the planting area of rice was constructed,principal component analysis of the system was conducted,and then a mixed linear model where the planting area of rice was as the dependent variable was established.The results show that after the exclusion of the interference from other factors,the minimum purchase price policy for grain had a positive impact on the planting area of rice in Hubei Province.That is,the minimum purchase price policy significantly stimulated the growth of rice planting area in Hubei Province.

Nonparametric Estimation in Linear Mixed Models with Uncorrelated Homoscedastic Errors

Today, Linear Mixed Models (LMMs) are fitted, mostly, by assuming that random effects and errors have Gaussian distributions, therefore using Maximum Likelihood (ML) or REML estimation. However, for many data sets, that double assumption is unlikely to hold, particularly for the random effects, a crucial component in which assessment of magnitude is key in such modeling. Alternative fitting methods not relying on that assumption (as ANOVA ones and Rao’s MINQUE) apply, quite often, only to the very constrained class of variance components models. In this paper, a new computationally feasible estimation methodology is designed, first for the widely used class of 2-level (or longitudinal) LMMs with only assumption (beyond the usual basic ones) that residual errors are uncorrelated and homoscedastic, with no distributional assumption imposed on the random effects. A major asset of this new approach is that it yields nonnegative variance estimates and covariance matrices estimates which are symmetric and, at least, positive semi-definite. Furthermore, it is shown that when the LMM is, indeed, Gaussian, this new methodology differs from ML just through a slight variation in the denominator of the residual variance estimate. The new methodology actually generalizes to LMMs a well known nonparametric fitting procedure for standard Linear Models. Finally, the methodology is also extended to ANOVA LMMs, generalizing an old method by Henderson for ML estimation in such models under normality.

Linear Mixed Model Analysis of Worldwide Longitudinal Infant Mortality Rate Data and Association with Human Development Index

A linear mixed model is used to determine the explaining infant mortality rate data of United Nations countries. The HDI （human development index） has a significant negative linear relationship with infant mortality rate. United Nations data shows that the infant mortality rate has a descending trend over the period 1990-2010. This study aims to assess the value of the HDI as a predictor of infant mortality rate. Findings in the paper suggest that significant percentage reductions in infant mortality might be possible for countries for controlling the HDI.

A study of the mixed layer of the South China Sea based on the multiple linear regression

Multiple linear regression （MLR） method was applied to quantify the effects of the net heat flux （NHF）, the net freshwater flux （NFF） and the wind stress on the mixed layer depth （MLD） of the South China Sea （SCS） based on the simple ocean data assimilation （SODA） dataset. The spatio-temporal distributions of the MLD, the buoyancy flux （combining the NHF and the NFF） and the wind stress of the SCS were presented. Then using an oceanic vertical mixing model, the MLD after a certain time under the same initial conditions but various pairs of boundary conditions （the three factors） was simulated. Applying the MLR method to the results, regression equations which modeling the relationship between the simulated MLD and the three factors were calculated. The equations indicate that when the NHF was negative, it was the primary driver of the mixed layer deepening; and when the NHF was positive, the wind stress played a more important role than that of the NHF while the NFF had the least effect. When the NHF was positive, the relative quantitative effects of the wind stress, the NHF, and the NFF were about i0, 6 and 2. The above conclusions were applied to explaining the spatio-temporal distributions of the MLD in the SCS and thus proved to be valid.

Marginal Conceptual Predictive Statistic for Mixed Model Selection

We focus on the development of model selection criteria in linear mixed models. In particular, we propose the model selection criteria following the Mallows’ Conceptual Predictive Statistic (Cp) [1] [2] in linear mixed models. When correlation exists between the observations in data, the normal Gauss discrepancy in univariate case is not appropriate to measure the distance between the true model and a candidate model. Instead, we define a marginal Gauss discrepancy which takes the correlation into account in the mixed models. The model selection criterion, marginal Cp, called MCp, serves as an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the expected marginal Gauss discrepancy. An improvement of MCp, called IMCp, is then derived and proved to be a more accurate estimator of the expected marginal Gauss discrepancy than MCp. The performance of the proposed criteria is investigated in a simulation study. The simulation results show that in small samples, the proposed criteria outperform the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) [3] [4] and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) [5] in selecting the correct model;in large samples, their performance is competitive. Further, the proposed criteria perform significantly better for highly correlated response data than for weakly correlated data.

Efficient Shrinkage Estimation about the Partially Linear Varying Coefficient Model with Random Effect for Longitudinal Data

In this paper, an efficient shrinkage estimation procedure for the partially linear varying coefficient model (PLVC) with random effect is considered. By selecting the significant variable and estimating the nonzero coefficient, the model structure specification is accomplished by introducing a novel penalized estimating equation. Under some mild conditions, the asymptotic properties for the proposed model selection and estimation results, such as the sparsity and oracle property, are established. Some numerical simulation studies and a real data analysis are presented to examine the finite sample performance of the procedure.

公路隧道入口区域驾驶人吸睛效应综合评价

为全面和系统评价公路隧道入口区域视觉吸引对驾驶人吸睛效应视觉表现的影响,本文招募30名被试开展自然驾驶实验,采集驾驶人在公路隧道入口区域不同视觉吸引条件下的眼动数据,基于因子分析法选取驾驶人吸睛效应敏感评价指标,并分别构建线性混合效应模型和数据包络分析模型,识别和探究公路隧道入口区域视觉吸引对驾驶人吸睛效应视觉表现的影响特征和作用机理。结果表明:因子分析结果显示,驾驶人吸睛效应敏感视觉指标为注视持续时间、瞳孔直径、扫视持续时间和扫视幅度;公路隧道入口区域不同视觉吸引条件对驾驶人吸睛效应的视觉表现和综合效率有显著影响,且受驾驶人年龄和驾驶经验的个体特质因素影响显著,而性别因素对其没有显著性影响;视觉吸引的存在均会不同程度地损害驾驶人的正常视觉绩效,降低其合理有效性;提示标语视觉吸引条件下,驾驶人的视觉注意水平最差,视觉认知负荷程度最高,吸睛效应的负面影响最大,广告牌条件次之。

基于混合整数规划的数据中心冷却能耗优化

以广州某数据中心水蓄冷冷却系统为研究对象,提出了一种基于混合整数线性规划的模型预测控制方法.该方法以数据中心冷却系统的能耗最低为优化目标,通过对冷却系统和环境条件进行建模,并结合能源成本和冷却系统效率,确定最佳的冷水机组运行策略和水蓄冷冷却系统的时序控制.在优化过程中,考虑了冷水机组的最小连续运行时间对冷却系统能耗的影响,并确定了最佳取值,提高了机组的稳定性,减少了因冷机频繁启停带来的能耗浪费.通过全年能耗模拟,相较于传统控制方法,该方法将总能耗降低了6.52%,总运行费用降低了6.93%.

基于在线更新的线性混合效应模型的参数估计

本文考虑在线更新数据集下线性混合效应模型的参数估计问题,提出了对应的在线更新估计方法,并证明了所得估计量的相合性.通过数值模拟发现,在不同的参数设置下,该方法的表现良好.将该方法与全局估计进行对比发现,虽然该方法在估计误差方面的表现不如全局估计,但是该方法能适用于在线更新数据集的情形,且大大降低了估计量的估计时间,以及估计时对计算机存储性能与计算性能的要求.

基于CSA-AFSA算法的集装箱港口连续型泊位分配优化

为提升集装箱港口运营效率,笔者研究了考虑潮汐因素与泊位偏好的连续型泊位分配问题。引入了船舶时空矩形不可重叠约束和潮汐时间窗约束,构建以最小化船舶等待、延迟离港、泊位偏离以及在港期间油耗费用和最小为目标的混合整数线性规划模型;根据模型特征,采用CPLEX求解软件、鱼群算法、布谷鸟搜索算法和布谷鸟鱼群混合算法进行求解,以计划周期为36 h的20个不同规模的船舶到港数据为研究算例,通过算例求解得到符和潮汐时间窗、泊位偏好等要求的泊位分配方案。算例求解表明:算例规模较小时,CPLEX可以在较短时间内求出最优泊位分配方案;算例规模较大时,CPLEX求解时间较长,布谷鸟鱼群混合算法可以在平均3 min内求出与CPLEX差距为0.39%~4.20%的次优解;不同算法间的对比表明,布谷鸟鱼群混合算法求解能力更优,混合算法所得泊位分配方案中,乘潮船舶的进出港时刻均在潮汐高水位时段,且85%以上的船舶在偏好泊靠点200 m内接受装卸服务。

大理州乙肝疫苗接种和乙肝病毒流行现状分析

背景乙型肝炎病毒(hepatitis B virus,HBV)感染是一种公共卫生威胁,世界卫生组织提出了2030年全球消除病毒性肝炎的目标。云南省于2016—2020年开展了乙肝表面抗原(HBV surface antigen,HBsAg)和乙肝表面抗体(HBV surface antibody,HBsAb)监测工作,大理州作为调查现场参与其中。目的了解大理州HBV感染和HBsAb阳性率的关联因素。方法本研究为横断面调查研究,采用分层整群抽样,于2016—2020年对大理州6个年龄组的18904人开展问卷调查和血清采集,应用酶联免疫吸附试验(enzyme linked immunosorbent assay,ELISA)检测血清HBsAg、HBsAb和乙肝核心抗体(HBVcoreantibody,HBcAb)。运用广义线性混合模型(generalizedlinearmixedmodel,GLMM)分析HBV感染率和HBsAb阳性率的关联因素。结果大理州标化HBV感染率为33.88%,乙肝疫苗接种率为24.42%,及时接种率为16.37%,全程接种率为23.90%,标化HBsAg、HBsAb和HBcAb阳性率分别为2.32%、39.95%和18.57%。GLMM分析显示,男性感染风险低于女性,OR值为0.889(95%CI:0.811~0.974)。相比0~1岁组,≥60岁年龄组感染率更高(且为所有年龄组中最高),OR值为9.223(95%CI:5.440~15.636)。及时接种人群和全程接种人群感染率低于未及时接种人群和未全程接种人群,OR值分别为0.670(95%CI:0.514~0.875)和0.072(95%CI:0.055~0.094)。男性HBsAb阳性率高于女性,OR值为0.922(95%CI:0.862~0.987)。相比0~1岁组,12~18岁年龄组HBsAb阳性率更低(且为所有年龄组中最低),OR值为0.032(95%CI:0.026~0.040)。全程接种人群HBsAb阳性率高于未全程接种人群,OR值为1.161(95%CI:1.391~1.872)。结论大理州HBsAg阳性率低于流行水平,但青少年和成人HBsAb阳性率较低,应做好基础免疫和查漏补种,提高全人群免疫水平。