In recent years, the coastal region of Southeast China has witnessed a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling typhoons. The hilly and mountainous ter...In recent years, the coastal region of Southeast China has witnessed a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling typhoons. The hilly and mountainous terrain of this area, combined with rapid rainfall accumulation, has led to a surge in flash floods and severe geological hazards. On August 10, 2019, Typhoon Lekima made landfall in Zhejiang Province, China, and its torrential rainfall triggered extensive landslides, resulting in substantial damage and economic losses. Utilizing high-resolution satellite images, we compiled a landslide inventory of the affected area, which comprises a total of 2,774 rainfallinduced landslides over an area of 2965 km2. The majority of these landslides were small to mediumsized and exhibited elongated, clustered patterns. Some landslides displayed characteristics of high-level initiation, obstructing or partially blocking rivers, leading to the formation of debris dams. We used the inventory to analyze the distribution pattern of the landslides and their relationship with topographical, geological, and hydrological factors. The results showed that landslide abundance was closely related to elevation, slope angle, faults, and road density. The landslides were predominantly located in hilly and low mountainous areas, with elevations ranging from 150 to 300 m, slopes of 20 to 30 degrees, and a NE-SE aspect. Notably, we observed the highest Landslide Number Density(LND) and Landslide Area Percentage(LAP) in the rhyolite region. Landslides were concentrated within approximately 4 km on either side of fault zones, with their size and frequency negatively correlated with distances to faults, roads, and river systems. Furthermore, under the influence of typhoons, regions with denser vegetation cover exhibited higher landslide density, reaching maximum values in shrubland areas. In areas experiencing significantly increased concentrated rainfall, landslide density also showed a corresponding rise. In terms of spatial distribution, the rainfall-triggered landslides primarily occurred in the northeastern part of the study area, particularly in regions characterized by complex topography such as Shanzao Village in Yantan Town, Xixia Township, and Shangzhang Township. The research findings offer crucial data on the rainfallinduced landslides triggered by Typhoon Lekima, shedding light on their spatial distribution patterns. These findings provide valuable references for mitigating risks and planning reconstruction in typhoon-affected area.展开更多
The aim of this study is to investigate the sea surface temperature(SST) cooling as typhoons pass the Kuroshio Current.A numerical circulation model,denoted as the Stony Brook Parallel Ocean Model(sbPOM),was used to s...The aim of this study is to investigate the sea surface temperature(SST) cooling as typhoons pass the Kuroshio Current.A numerical circulation model,denoted as the Stony Brook Parallel Ocean Model(sbPOM),was used to simulate the SST,which includes four wave-induced effect terms(i.e.,radiation stress,nonbreaking waves,Stokes drift,and breaking waves) simulated using the third-generation wave model,called WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ(WW3).The significant wave height(SWH) measurements from the Jason-2 altimeter were used to validate the WW3-simulated results,yielding a root mean square error(RMSE) of less than 0.50 m and a correlation coefficient(COR) of approximately 0.93.The water temperature measured from the Advanced Research and Global Observation Satellite was applied to validate the model simulation.Accordingly,the RMSE of the SST is 0.92℃ with a COR of approximately 0.99.As revealed in the sbPOM-simulated SST fields,a reduction in the SST at the Kuroshio Current region was observed as a typhoon passed,although the water temperature of the Kuroshio Current is relatively high.The variation of the SST is consistent with that of the current,whereas the maximum SST lagged behind the occurrence of the peak SWH.Moreover,the Stokes drift plays an important role in the SST cooling after analyzing four wave-induced terms in the background of the Kuroshio Current.The sensitivity experiment also showed that the accuracy of the water temperature was significantly reduced when including breaking waves,which play a negative role in the inside part of the ocean.The variation in the mean mixing layer depth(MLD) showed that a typhoon could enhance the mean MLD in the Kuroshio Current area in September and October,whereas a typhoon has little influence on the mean MLD in the Kuroshio Current area in May.Moreover,the mean MLD rapidly decreased with the weakening of the strong wind force and wave-induced effects when a typhoon crossed the Kuroshio Current.展开更多
The effect of Stokes drift production(SDP),which includes Coriolis-Stokes forcing,Langmuir circulation,and Craik-Lei-bovich vortexes,on the upper ocean during typhoon passage in the Bohai Sea(BS),China,is investigated...The effect of Stokes drift production(SDP),which includes Coriolis-Stokes forcing,Langmuir circulation,and Craik-Lei-bovich vortexes,on the upper ocean during typhoon passage in the Bohai Sea(BS),China,is investigated by using a coupled wave-current model.The role of SDP in turbulent mixing and the further dynamics during the entire typhoon period are comprehensively stud-ied.Experimental results show that SDP greatly increases turbulent mixing at all depths under typhoon conditions by up to seven times that under normal weather conditions.SDP generally strengthens sea surface cooling by more than 0.4℃,with the maximum reduction in sea surface temperature(SST)at the during-typhoon stage exceeding 2℃,which is approximately seven times larger than that under normal weather conditions.The SDP-induced decrease in current speed can exceed 0.2ms^(-1),and the change in current direction is generally opposite the wind direction.These results suggest that Stokes drift depresses the effect of strong winds on currents by intensifying turbulent mixing.Mixed layer depth(MLD)is distinctly increased by O(1)during typhoons due to SDP and can deepen by more than 5m.In addition,the continuous effects of SDP on SST,current,and MLD at the after-typhoon stage indi-cate a hysteretic response between SDP and typhoon actions.展开更多
There was an evident increase in the number of earthquakes in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir from June to July 2014 after the landing of Typhoon Hagibis.To understand the spatial and temporal evolution of this microseismi...There was an evident increase in the number of earthquakes in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir from June to July 2014 after the landing of Typhoon Hagibis.To understand the spatial and temporal evolution of this microseismicity,we built a high-precision earthquake catalog for 2014 and relocated 2275 events using recently developed methods for event picking and catalog construction.Seismicity occurred in the southeastern part of the reservoir,with the preferred fault plane orientation aligned along the Heyuan Fault.The total seismic energy peaked when the typhoon passed through the reservoir,and seismicity correlated with typhoon energy.In contrast,a limited seismic response was observed during the later Typhoon Rammasun.Combining data regarding the water level in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir and seismicity frequency changes in the Taiwan region during these two typhoon events,we suggest that typhoon activity may increase microseism energy by impacting fault stability around the Xinfengjiang Reservoir.Whether a fault can be activated also depends on how close the stress accumulation is to its failure point.展开更多
The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields ...The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.展开更多
The potential of monitoring the movement of typhoons using the precipitable water vapor(PWV) has been confirmed. However, monitoring the movement of typhoon is focused on PWV, making it difficult to describe the movem...The potential of monitoring the movement of typhoons using the precipitable water vapor(PWV) has been confirmed. However, monitoring the movement of typhoon is focused on PWV, making it difficult to describe the movement of a typhoon in detail minutely and resulting in insufficient accuracy. Hence,based on PWV and meteorological data, we propose an improved typhoon monitoring mode. First, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5-derived PWV(ERA5-PWV) and the Global Navigation Satellite System-derived PWV(GNSS-PWV) were compared with the reference radiosonde PWV(RS-PWV). Then, using the PWV and atmospheric parameters derived from ERA5, we discussed the anomalous variations of PWV, pressure(P), precipitation, and wind speed during different typhoons. Finally, we compiled a list of critical factors related to typhoon movement, PWV and P. We developed an improved multi-factor typhoon monitoring mode(IMTM) with different models(i.e.,IMTM-I and IMTM-II) in different cases with a higher density of GNSS observation or only Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) data. The IMTM was evaluated through the reference movement speeds of HATO and Mangkhut from the China Meteorological Observatory Typhoon Network(CMOTN). The results show that the root mean square(RMS) of the IMTM-I is 1.26 km/h based on ERA5-P and ERA5-PWV,and the absolute bias values are mostly within 2 km/h. Compared with the models considering the single factor ERA5-P/ERA5-PWV, the RMS of the IMTM-I is improved by 26.3% and 38.5%, respectively. The IMTM-II model manifests a residual of only 0.35 km/h. Compared with the single-factor model based on GNSS-PWV/P, the residual of the IMTM-II model is reduced by 90.8% and 84.1%, respectively. These results propose that the typhoon movement monitoring approach combining PWV and P has evident advantages over the single-factor model and is expected to supplement traditional typhoon monitoring.展开更多
Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast ...Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.展开更多
The movement speed of Typhoon In-Fa(2021)was notably slow,at 10 km h-1or less,for over 20 hours following its landfall in Zhejiang,China,in contrast to other typhoons that have made landfall.This study examines the fa...The movement speed of Typhoon In-Fa(2021)was notably slow,at 10 km h-1or less,for over 20 hours following its landfall in Zhejiang,China,in contrast to other typhoons that have made landfall.This study examines the factors contributing to the slow movement of Typhoon In-Fa,including the steering flow,diabatic heating,vertical wind shear(VWS),and surface synoptic situation,by comparing it with Typhoons Yagi(2018)and Rumbia(2018)which followed similar tracks.The findings reveal that the movement speed of Typhoons Yagi and Rumbia is most closely associated with their respective 500 h Pa environmental winds,with a steering flow of 10^(-12)m s^(-1).In contrast,Typhoon InFa’s movement speed is most strongly correlated with the 850 h Pa environmental wind field,with a steering flow speed of only 2 m s^(-1).Furthermore,as Typhoon In-Fa moves northwest after landfall,its intensity is slightly greater than that of Typhoons Yagi and Rumbia,and the pressure gradient in front of Typhoon In-Fa is notably smaller,leading to its slow movement.Additionally,the precipitation distribution of Typhoon In-Fa differs from that of the other two typhoons,resulting in a weak asymmetry of wavenumber-1 diabatic heating,which indirectly affects its movement speed.Further analysis indicates that VWS can alter the typhoon’s structure,weaken its intensity,and ultimately impact its movement.展开更多
This paper presents an attempt at assimilating clear-sky FY-4A Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager(AGRI)radiances from two water vapor channels for the prediction of three landfalling typhoon events over the West...This paper presents an attempt at assimilating clear-sky FY-4A Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager(AGRI)radiances from two water vapor channels for the prediction of three landfalling typhoon events over the West Pacific Ocean using the 3DVar data assimilation(DA)method along with the WRF model.A channel-sensitive cloud detection scheme based on the particle filter(PF)algorithm is developed and examined against a cloud detection scheme using the multivariate and minimum residual(MMR)algorithm and another traditional cloud mask–dependent cloud detection scheme.Results show that both channel-sensitive cloud detection schemes are effective,while the PF scheme is able to reserve more pixels than the MMR scheme for the same channel.In general,the added value of AGRI radiances is confirmed when comparing with the control experiment without AGRI radiances.Moreover,it is found that the analysis fields of the PF experiment are mostly improved in terms of better depicting the typhoon,including the temperature,moisture,and dynamical conditions.The typhoon track forecast skill is improved with AGRI radiance DA,which could be explained by better simulating the upper trough.The impact of assimilating AGRI radiances on typhoon intensity forecasts is small.On the other hand,improved rainfall forecasts from AGRI DA experiments are found along with reduced errors for both the thermodynamic and moisture fields,albeit the improvements are limited.展开更多
Natural events have had a significant impact on overall flight activity,and the aviation industry plays a vital role in helping society cope with the impact of these events.As one of the most impactful weather typhoon...Natural events have had a significant impact on overall flight activity,and the aviation industry plays a vital role in helping society cope with the impact of these events.As one of the most impactful weather typhoon seasons appears and continues,airlines operating in threatened areas and passengers having travel plans during this time period will pay close attention to the development of tropical storms.This paper proposes a deep multimodal fusion and multitasking trajectory prediction model that can improve the reliability of typhoon trajectory prediction and reduce the quantity of flight scheduling cancellation.The deep multimodal fusion module is formed by deep fusion of the feature output by multiple submodal fusion modules,and the multitask generation module uses longitude and latitude as two related tasks for simultaneous prediction.With more dependable data accuracy,problems can be analysed rapidly and more efficiently,enabling better decision-making with a proactive versus reactive posture.When multiple modalities coexist,features can be extracted from them simultaneously to supplement each other’s information.An actual case study,the typhoon Lichma that swept China in 2019,has demonstrated that the algorithm can effectively reduce the number of unnecessary flight cancellations compared to existing flight scheduling and assist the new generation of flight scheduling systems under extreme weather.展开更多
This paper uses the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport(COAWST)model to analyze the impact of typhoon‘Hongxia’on the velocity and position movement of the Kuroshio axis,the impact of typhoons on the Kur...This paper uses the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport(COAWST)model to analyze the impact of typhoon‘Hongxia’on the velocity and position movement of the Kuroshio axis,the impact of typhoons on the Kuroshio intrusion into South China Sea(SCS),the corresponding water,heat,and salt fluxes,and the impact of Kuroshio water in the northeastern SCS.When typhoon‘Hongxia’passed,the Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS was the most significant at 21?N latitude.In the vertical direction,the Kuroshio intrusion was strongest in the subsurface layer,leading to the most significant changes in temperature and salinity in the northeastern part of the SCS in the subsurface layer.Under the influence of the southeastern monsoon in summer,a large amount of low-salinity water accumulates at the surface of the northeastern part of the SCS,and Kuroshio intrusive water remains in the bottom and middle portions of the subsurface layer.The westward deviation of the Kuroshio axis caused by the typhoon displays a certain lag compared with the hot and salty water intrusion into the SCS approximately 7 d later.The impact of the typhoon on the Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS lasts for 20 d.The typhoon caused increases in the water,heat,and salt fluxes associated with the Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS,and the contribution of the typhoon to these fluxes was as high as 40%.Under typhoon conditions,the maximum Kuroshio intrusion flux reached more than twice that before the typhoon.展开更多
The South China Sea(SCS)is the largest marginal sea in the Northwest Pacific Ocean,and it encounters frequent typhoons.The atmosphere and ocean will create significant thermal and dynamic responses during the intense ...The South China Sea(SCS)is the largest marginal sea in the Northwest Pacific Ocean,and it encounters frequent typhoons.The atmosphere and ocean will create significant thermal and dynamic responses during the intense disturbance caused by typhoons.However,these responses have not been thoroughly investigated owing to the complicated marine environment.According to the satellite data,the SCS Basin was observed to have a strong sea surface temperature(SST)response to Typhoon Mangkhut,resulting in widespread SST cooling.A coupled model was used to investigate the atmospheric and oceanic responses to Typhoon Mangkhut.Best-track data,satellite SST,and ARGO measurements show that the coupled WRF-CROCO simulation displays better track,intensity,SST,temperature,and salinity profiles than those of the WRF-only simulation.Results show that the typhoon induced rightward intensifications in wind speed,ocean current,and SST.The following are some remarkable atmosphere and ocean responses:(1)the SST below the inner-core region is cooled by 1℃,resulting in a 37%-44%decrease in wet enthalpy,and the central pressure is increased by~9 hPa.Therefore,the changes in SST below the innercore region of the SCS Basin have a significant impact on air-sea fluxes under high-wind conditions;(2)the ocean boundary layer analysis shows that near-inertial oscillations on the right side of the typhoon track and a strong inertial current up to~2.28 m/s in the upper ocean were observed,which resonated with the local wind and flow field on the right side and induced strong SST cooling;(3)a decrease in SST decreased the moist static energy of the typhoon boundary layer,thereby weakening the typhoon’s intensity.The difference in equivalent potential temperature and sea surface pressure have a good correlation,indicating that the influence of moist static energy on typhoon intensity cannot be overlooked.展开更多
Landfalling typhoons can cause disasters over large regions.The government and emergency responders need to take measures to mitigate disasters according to the forecast of landfall position,while slight timing error ...Landfalling typhoons can cause disasters over large regions.The government and emergency responders need to take measures to mitigate disasters according to the forecast of landfall position,while slight timing error can be ignored.The reliability of operational model forecasts of typhoon landfall position needs to be evaluated beforehand,according to the forecasts and observation of historical cases.In the evaluation of landfalling typhoon track,the traditional method based on point-to-point matching methods could be influenced by the predicted typhoon translation speed.Consequently,the traditional track evaluation method may result in a large track error even if the predicted landfall position is close to observation.The purpose of this paper is to address the above issue using a simple evaluation method of landfalling typhoon track forecast based on the time neighborhood approach.In this new method,the timing error was lessened to highlight the importance of the position error during the landfall of typhoon.The properties of the time neighborhood method are compared with the traditional method based on numerical forecast results of 12 landfalling typhoon cases.Results demonstrated that the new method is not sensitive to the sampling frequency,and that the difference between the time neighborhood and traditional method will be more obvious when the moving speed of typhoon is moderate(between 15−30 km h^(−1)).The time neighborhood concept can be easily extended to a broader context when one attempts to examine the position error more than the timing error.展开更多
In the last two decades,the Yangtze Estuary has undergone significant changes under the influence of reduced sediment inflow and estuary engineering.This study investigates the influence of floods and typhoons on sedi...In the last two decades,the Yangtze Estuary has undergone significant changes under the influence of reduced sediment inflow and estuary engineering.This study investigates the influence of floods and typhoons on sediment concentration and the morphological evolution of shoals and channels in the Yangtze Estuary.The analysis is conducted through the utilization of topographic data measured pre-and post-flood events and observations of hydro-sedimentary changes during typhoons.By using a generalized estuary mathematical model,this study examines the interplay between varying tidal ranges,tidal divisions,runoff volumes,and regulation projects on the erosion and deposition of shoals and channels in bifurcated estuaries.The results show that due to the implementation of river and waterway regulation projects,the impact of the 2020 flood on the main channel and shoal was significantly less than that of the1998 flood.The swing amplitude of the South Branch main channel decreased.However,local river sections such as the Southern Waterway of Baimao Shoal exhibited erosion.During typhoons,sediment concentration in the 20 cm above the bottom increased significantly and was closely related to wave processes,with a weakened correlation to tidal dynamics.After typhoons,high shoals in South Passage above 0 m were silted up,while the terrain on one side of the tail of Jiuduan Shoal in the downstream deep-water area was generally scoured due to strong wave action.The generalized mathematical model of the bifurcated estuary revealed that M2 tidal component contributed most to the ero sion and deposition evolution of estuary shoals and channels,with floods exhibiting characteristics of sedime ntation on shoals and erosion on channels.With the implementation of a branch rectification project,branch resistance increased,diversion decreased,and the riverbed changed from pre-project erosion to post-project sedimentation,with an increase in erosion in non-project branches.展开更多
This paper analyzes the causes of the offshore strength enhancement of Typhoon Tiange (No. 1713) from four aspects: high and low layer divergence, vertical wind shear, southwest monsoon transport, offshore sea tempera...This paper analyzes the causes of the offshore strength enhancement of Typhoon Tiange (No. 1713) from four aspects: high and low layer divergence, vertical wind shear, southwest monsoon transport, offshore sea temperature and weak cold air. The conclusions are as follows: The high-level airflow divergence enhancement and positive vorticity advection in the offshore, strengthen the middle rise movement of the “Tiange”, and the ascending movement enhances the strength of the “Tiange” by strengthening the lower layer convergence;The high offshore sea temperature and sea temperature are changing temperature, which also has a certain effect on the strengthening of “Tiange” in the offshore;The strengthening of the southwest warm and humid airflow provides sufficient water vapor and energy for the development of “Tiange”, which is beneficial to the maintenance of the typhoon warm heart structure;The intrusion of weak cold air, enhanced the radiation cooperation of the lower typhoon disturbance, which is beneficial to the enhancement of “Tiange”.展开更多
In this study,the effects of surface exchange coefficients on simulations of Super Typhoon Megi(2010)are investigated using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model.Several experiments are conducted using different...In this study,the effects of surface exchange coefficients on simulations of Super Typhoon Megi(2010)are investigated using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model.Several experiments are conducted using different parameterization schemes for the drag(C_(D))and enthalpy exchange(C_(K))coefficients.For the selected case,considering only the leveling-off of C_(D)at high wind speeds does not effectively improve the simulated typhoon track,intensity,or size.We found that increasing C_(K)monotonically with wind speed(Komori et al.,2018)yields stronger winds and deeper pressures by enhancing latent and sensible heat fluxes,but typhoon intensity remains underestimated.We propose a new higher C_(K)than that from Komori et al.(2018)based on the theory of Emanuel(1995).This approach produces a greater modeled typhoon intensity that is in good agreement with the best track data and effectively improves the track error for the simulation.Improved accuracy for modeled typhoon intensity is achieved with the new coefficient because C_(K)/C_(D)reaches the threshold of about 0.75 predicted by Emanuel(1995).The new proposed C_(K)also results in a reasonably accurate modeled sea surface temperature.However,typhoon size and surface wave height are overestimated.This finding implies that more numerical tests for tropical cyclones of different nature(such as strong,weak,dissipating,rapidly intensifying,or weakening tropical cyclones)should be studied,and more physical processes should be explored in future coupled models.展开更多
Beach erosion has occurred globally in recent decades due to frequent and severe storms.Dongsha beach,located in Zhujiajian Island,Zhejiang Province,China,is a typical embayed sandy beach.This study focused on the mor...Beach erosion has occurred globally in recent decades due to frequent and severe storms.Dongsha beach,located in Zhujiajian Island,Zhejiang Province,China,is a typical embayed sandy beach.This study focused on the morphodynamic response of Dongsha beach to typhoon events,based on beach topographies and surficial sediment characteristics acquired before and after four typhoon events with varying intensities.The four typhoons had different effects on the topography and sediment characteristics of Dongsha beach.Typhoons Ampil and Danas caused the largest(-51.72 m3/m)and the smallest erosion(-8.01 m3/m),respectively.Remarkable alongshore patterns of beach profile volumetric changes were found after the four typhoon events,with more erosion in the southern and central parts of the beach and few changes in the northern part.Grain size coarsening and poor sorting were the main sediment patterns on the beach influenced by different typhoons.Typhoons that occurred in the same year after another typhoon enhanced the effect of the previous typhoon on sediment coarsening and sorting variability,but this cumulative effect was not found between typhoons that occurred during different years.A comparison of the collected data revealed that the topographic state of the beach before the typhoon,typhoon characteristics,and tidal conditions were possible reasons for the difference in the responses of Dongsha beach to typhoon events.More severe beach erosion was caused by typhoons with higher intensity levels and longer durations,and high tide levels during typhoons can determine the upper limit of the beach profile erosion site.Taken together,these results can be used to improve beach management for storm prevention.展开更多
In this paper,a typical experiment is carried out based on a high-resolution air-sea coupled model,namely,the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport(COAWST)model,on both heterogeneous many-core(SW)and homoge...In this paper,a typical experiment is carried out based on a high-resolution air-sea coupled model,namely,the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport(COAWST)model,on both heterogeneous many-core(SW)and homogenous multicore(Intel)supercomputing platforms.We construct a hindcast of Typhoon Lekima on both the SW and Intel platforms,compare the simulation results between these two platforms and compare the key elements of the atmospheric and ocean modules to reanalysis data.The comparative experiment in this typhoon case indicates that the domestic many-core computing platform and general cluster yield almost no differences in the simulated typhoon path and intensity,and the differences in surface pressure(PSFC)in the WRF model and sea surface temperature(SST)in the short-range forecast are very small,whereas a major difference can be identified at high latitudes after the first 10 days.Further heat budget analysis verifies that the differences in SST after 10 days are mainly caused by shortwave radiation variations,as influenced by subsequently generated typhoons in the system.These typhoons generated in the hindcast after the first 10 days attain obviously different trajectories between the two platforms.展开更多
The South China Sea suffers strongly from the typhoon storm surge disasters in China,and its northern coastal areas are facing severe risks.Therefore,it is necessary and urgent to establish an assessment system for ra...The South China Sea suffers strongly from the typhoon storm surge disasters in China,and its northern coastal areas are facing severe risks.Therefore,it is necessary and urgent to establish an assessment system for rating typhoon storm surge disaster.We constructed an effective and reliable rating assessment system for typhoon storm surge disaster based on the theories of over-threshold,distribution function family,and composite extreme value.The over-threshold sample was used as the basis of data analysis,the composite extreme value expansion model was used to derive the design water increment,and then the disaster level was delineated based on the return period level.The results of the extreme value model comparison show that the Weibull-Pareto distribution is more suitable than the classical extreme value distribution for fitting the over-threshold samples.The results of the return period projection are relatively stable based on different analysis samples.Taking the 10 typhoon storm surges as examples,they caused landfall in the Guangdong area in the past 10 years.The results of the assessment ranking indicate that the risk levels based on the return period levels obtained from different distributions are generally consistent.When classifying low-risk areas,the classification criteria of the State Oceanic Administration,China(SOA,2012)are more conservative.In the high-risk areas,the results of the assessment ranking based on return period are more consistent with those of the SOA.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (42277136)Natural Science Research Project of Anhui Educational Committee (2023AH030041)National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFB3901205)。
文摘In recent years, the coastal region of Southeast China has witnessed a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling typhoons. The hilly and mountainous terrain of this area, combined with rapid rainfall accumulation, has led to a surge in flash floods and severe geological hazards. On August 10, 2019, Typhoon Lekima made landfall in Zhejiang Province, China, and its torrential rainfall triggered extensive landslides, resulting in substantial damage and economic losses. Utilizing high-resolution satellite images, we compiled a landslide inventory of the affected area, which comprises a total of 2,774 rainfallinduced landslides over an area of 2965 km2. The majority of these landslides were small to mediumsized and exhibited elongated, clustered patterns. Some landslides displayed characteristics of high-level initiation, obstructing or partially blocking rivers, leading to the formation of debris dams. We used the inventory to analyze the distribution pattern of the landslides and their relationship with topographical, geological, and hydrological factors. The results showed that landslide abundance was closely related to elevation, slope angle, faults, and road density. The landslides were predominantly located in hilly and low mountainous areas, with elevations ranging from 150 to 300 m, slopes of 20 to 30 degrees, and a NE-SE aspect. Notably, we observed the highest Landslide Number Density(LND) and Landslide Area Percentage(LAP) in the rhyolite region. Landslides were concentrated within approximately 4 km on either side of fault zones, with their size and frequency negatively correlated with distances to faults, roads, and river systems. Furthermore, under the influence of typhoons, regions with denser vegetation cover exhibited higher landslide density, reaching maximum values in shrubland areas. In areas experiencing significantly increased concentrated rainfall, landslide density also showed a corresponding rise. In terms of spatial distribution, the rainfall-triggered landslides primarily occurred in the northeastern part of the study area, particularly in regions characterized by complex topography such as Shanzao Village in Yantan Town, Xixia Township, and Shangzhang Township. The research findings offer crucial data on the rainfallinduced landslides triggered by Typhoon Lekima, shedding light on their spatial distribution patterns. These findings provide valuable references for mitigating risks and planning reconstruction in typhoon-affected area.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42076238,42176012,and 42130402)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2021YFC3101702)the Shanghai Frontiers Research Center of the Hadal Biosphere.
文摘The aim of this study is to investigate the sea surface temperature(SST) cooling as typhoons pass the Kuroshio Current.A numerical circulation model,denoted as the Stony Brook Parallel Ocean Model(sbPOM),was used to simulate the SST,which includes four wave-induced effect terms(i.e.,radiation stress,nonbreaking waves,Stokes drift,and breaking waves) simulated using the third-generation wave model,called WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ(WW3).The significant wave height(SWH) measurements from the Jason-2 altimeter were used to validate the WW3-simulated results,yielding a root mean square error(RMSE) of less than 0.50 m and a correlation coefficient(COR) of approximately 0.93.The water temperature measured from the Advanced Research and Global Observation Satellite was applied to validate the model simulation.Accordingly,the RMSE of the SST is 0.92℃ with a COR of approximately 0.99.As revealed in the sbPOM-simulated SST fields,a reduction in the SST at the Kuroshio Current region was observed as a typhoon passed,although the water temperature of the Kuroshio Current is relatively high.The variation of the SST is consistent with that of the current,whereas the maximum SST lagged behind the occurrence of the peak SWH.Moreover,the Stokes drift plays an important role in the SST cooling after analyzing four wave-induced terms in the background of the Kuroshio Current.The sensitivity experiment also showed that the accuracy of the water temperature was significantly reduced when including breaking waves,which play a negative role in the inside part of the ocean.The variation in the mean mixing layer depth(MLD) showed that a typhoon could enhance the mean MLD in the Kuroshio Current area in September and October,whereas a typhoon has little influence on the mean MLD in the Kuroshio Current area in May.Moreover,the mean MLD rapidly decreased with the weakening of the strong wind force and wave-induced effects when a typhoon crossed the Kuroshio Current.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42176020)the National Key Research and Development Program(No.2022 YFC3105002).
文摘The effect of Stokes drift production(SDP),which includes Coriolis-Stokes forcing,Langmuir circulation,and Craik-Lei-bovich vortexes,on the upper ocean during typhoon passage in the Bohai Sea(BS),China,is investigated by using a coupled wave-current model.The role of SDP in turbulent mixing and the further dynamics during the entire typhoon period are comprehensively stud-ied.Experimental results show that SDP greatly increases turbulent mixing at all depths under typhoon conditions by up to seven times that under normal weather conditions.SDP generally strengthens sea surface cooling by more than 0.4℃,with the maximum reduction in sea surface temperature(SST)at the during-typhoon stage exceeding 2℃,which is approximately seven times larger than that under normal weather conditions.The SDP-induced decrease in current speed can exceed 0.2ms^(-1),and the change in current direction is generally opposite the wind direction.These results suggest that Stokes drift depresses the effect of strong winds on currents by intensifying turbulent mixing.Mixed layer depth(MLD)is distinctly increased by O(1)during typhoons due to SDP and can deepen by more than 5m.In addition,the continuous effects of SDP on SST,current,and MLD at the after-typhoon stage indi-cate a hysteretic response between SDP and typhoon actions.
基金Strategic Priority Research Program(B)of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDB42020304)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42074059).
文摘There was an evident increase in the number of earthquakes in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir from June to July 2014 after the landing of Typhoon Hagibis.To understand the spatial and temporal evolution of this microseismicity,we built a high-precision earthquake catalog for 2014 and relocated 2275 events using recently developed methods for event picking and catalog construction.Seismicity occurred in the southeastern part of the reservoir,with the preferred fault plane orientation aligned along the Heyuan Fault.The total seismic energy peaked when the typhoon passed through the reservoir,and seismicity correlated with typhoon energy.In contrast,a limited seismic response was observed during the later Typhoon Rammasun.Combining data regarding the water level in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir and seismicity frequency changes in the Taiwan region during these two typhoon events,we suggest that typhoon activity may increase microseism energy by impacting fault stability around the Xinfengjiang Reservoir.Whether a fault can be activated also depends on how close the stress accumulation is to its failure point.
基金financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2022YFC3104205)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42377457).
文摘The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.
基金supported by the Guangxi Natural Science Foundation of China (2020GXNSFBA297145,Guike AD23026177)the Foundation of Guilin University of Technology(GUTQDJJ6616032)+3 种基金Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial Information and Geomatics (21-238-21-05)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42064002,42004025,42074035,42204006)the Innovative Training Program Foundation (202210596015,202210596402)the Open Fund of Hubei Luojia Laboratory(gran 230100020,230100019)。
文摘The potential of monitoring the movement of typhoons using the precipitable water vapor(PWV) has been confirmed. However, monitoring the movement of typhoon is focused on PWV, making it difficult to describe the movement of a typhoon in detail minutely and resulting in insufficient accuracy. Hence,based on PWV and meteorological data, we propose an improved typhoon monitoring mode. First, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5-derived PWV(ERA5-PWV) and the Global Navigation Satellite System-derived PWV(GNSS-PWV) were compared with the reference radiosonde PWV(RS-PWV). Then, using the PWV and atmospheric parameters derived from ERA5, we discussed the anomalous variations of PWV, pressure(P), precipitation, and wind speed during different typhoons. Finally, we compiled a list of critical factors related to typhoon movement, PWV and P. We developed an improved multi-factor typhoon monitoring mode(IMTM) with different models(i.e.,IMTM-I and IMTM-II) in different cases with a higher density of GNSS observation or only Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) data. The IMTM was evaluated through the reference movement speeds of HATO and Mangkhut from the China Meteorological Observatory Typhoon Network(CMOTN). The results show that the root mean square(RMS) of the IMTM-I is 1.26 km/h based on ERA5-P and ERA5-PWV,and the absolute bias values are mostly within 2 km/h. Compared with the models considering the single factor ERA5-P/ERA5-PWV, the RMS of the IMTM-I is improved by 26.3% and 38.5%, respectively. The IMTM-II model manifests a residual of only 0.35 km/h. Compared with the single-factor model based on GNSS-PWV/P, the residual of the IMTM-II model is reduced by 90.8% and 84.1%, respectively. These results propose that the typhoon movement monitoring approach combining PWV and P has evident advantages over the single-factor model and is expected to supplement traditional typhoon monitoring.
基金supported by four funds,including the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3106102)the Marine Science and Technology Innovation Project of Jiangsu Province(Nos.JSZRH YKJ202105,JSZRHYKI202303)+1 种基金the Nantong Social and Livelihood Science and Technology Project(Nos.MS12022009,MS22022082,MS22022083)the Project on Excellent Post-Graduate Dissertation of Hohai University(No.422003470).
文摘Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.
基金Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(ZR2021MD012)CMA Special Fund for Innovation and Development(CXFZ2023J015)。
文摘The movement speed of Typhoon In-Fa(2021)was notably slow,at 10 km h-1or less,for over 20 hours following its landfall in Zhejiang,China,in contrast to other typhoons that have made landfall.This study examines the factors contributing to the slow movement of Typhoon In-Fa,including the steering flow,diabatic heating,vertical wind shear(VWS),and surface synoptic situation,by comparing it with Typhoons Yagi(2018)and Rumbia(2018)which followed similar tracks.The findings reveal that the movement speed of Typhoons Yagi and Rumbia is most closely associated with their respective 500 h Pa environmental winds,with a steering flow of 10^(-12)m s^(-1).In contrast,Typhoon InFa’s movement speed is most strongly correlated with the 850 h Pa environmental wind field,with a steering flow speed of only 2 m s^(-1).Furthermore,as Typhoon In-Fa moves northwest after landfall,its intensity is slightly greater than that of Typhoons Yagi and Rumbia,and the pressure gradient in front of Typhoon In-Fa is notably smaller,leading to its slow movement.Additionally,the precipitation distribution of Typhoon In-Fa differs from that of the other two typhoons,resulting in a weak asymmetry of wavenumber-1 diabatic heating,which indirectly affects its movement speed.Further analysis indicates that VWS can alter the typhoon’s structure,weaken its intensity,and ultimately impact its movement.
基金primarily supported by the Chinese National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No. G42192553)Open Fund of Fujian Key Laboratory ofSevere Weather and Key Laboratory of Straits Severe Weather(Grant No. 2023KFKT03)+6 种基金the Open Project Fund of China Meteorological Administration Basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory(Grant No. 2023BHR-Y20)the Open Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science (Grant No. OFSLRSS202321)the Program of Shanghai Academic/Technology Research Leader(Grant No. 21XD1404500)the Shanghai Typhoon Research Foundation (Grant No. TFJJ202107)the Chinese National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. G41805016)the National Meteorological Center Foundation (Grant No. FY-APP-2021.0207)the High Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology for their support of this work
文摘This paper presents an attempt at assimilating clear-sky FY-4A Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager(AGRI)radiances from two water vapor channels for the prediction of three landfalling typhoon events over the West Pacific Ocean using the 3DVar data assimilation(DA)method along with the WRF model.A channel-sensitive cloud detection scheme based on the particle filter(PF)algorithm is developed and examined against a cloud detection scheme using the multivariate and minimum residual(MMR)algorithm and another traditional cloud mask–dependent cloud detection scheme.Results show that both channel-sensitive cloud detection schemes are effective,while the PF scheme is able to reserve more pixels than the MMR scheme for the same channel.In general,the added value of AGRI radiances is confirmed when comparing with the control experiment without AGRI radiances.Moreover,it is found that the analysis fields of the PF experiment are mostly improved in terms of better depicting the typhoon,including the temperature,moisture,and dynamical conditions.The typhoon track forecast skill is improved with AGRI radiance DA,which could be explained by better simulating the upper trough.The impact of assimilating AGRI radiances on typhoon intensity forecasts is small.On the other hand,improved rainfall forecasts from AGRI DA experiments are found along with reduced errors for both the thermodynamic and moisture fields,albeit the improvements are limited.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62073330)。
文摘Natural events have had a significant impact on overall flight activity,and the aviation industry plays a vital role in helping society cope with the impact of these events.As one of the most impactful weather typhoon seasons appears and continues,airlines operating in threatened areas and passengers having travel plans during this time period will pay close attention to the development of tropical storms.This paper proposes a deep multimodal fusion and multitasking trajectory prediction model that can improve the reliability of typhoon trajectory prediction and reduce the quantity of flight scheduling cancellation.The deep multimodal fusion module is formed by deep fusion of the feature output by multiple submodal fusion modules,and the multitask generation module uses longitude and latitude as two related tasks for simultaneous prediction.With more dependable data accuracy,problems can be analysed rapidly and more efficiently,enabling better decision-making with a proactive versus reactive posture.When multiple modalities coexist,features can be extracted from them simultaneously to supplement each other’s information.An actual case study,the typhoon Lichma that swept China in 2019,has demonstrated that the algorithm can effectively reduce the number of unnecessary flight cancellations compared to existing flight scheduling and assist the new generation of flight scheduling systems under extreme weather.
基金Tianjin Key Laboratory for Oceanic Meteorology for its support via the 2020 Open Fund Project(No.2020TKLOMZD01).
文摘This paper uses the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport(COAWST)model to analyze the impact of typhoon‘Hongxia’on the velocity and position movement of the Kuroshio axis,the impact of typhoons on the Kuroshio intrusion into South China Sea(SCS),the corresponding water,heat,and salt fluxes,and the impact of Kuroshio water in the northeastern SCS.When typhoon‘Hongxia’passed,the Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS was the most significant at 21?N latitude.In the vertical direction,the Kuroshio intrusion was strongest in the subsurface layer,leading to the most significant changes in temperature and salinity in the northeastern part of the SCS in the subsurface layer.Under the influence of the southeastern monsoon in summer,a large amount of low-salinity water accumulates at the surface of the northeastern part of the SCS,and Kuroshio intrusive water remains in the bottom and middle portions of the subsurface layer.The westward deviation of the Kuroshio axis caused by the typhoon displays a certain lag compared with the hot and salty water intrusion into the SCS approximately 7 d later.The impact of the typhoon on the Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS lasts for 20 d.The typhoon caused increases in the water,heat,and salt fluxes associated with the Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS,and the contribution of the typhoon to these fluxes was as high as 40%.Under typhoon conditions,the maximum Kuroshio intrusion flux reached more than twice that before the typhoon.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41620104003)the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (Nos. SJKY19_0951, KYCX21_0959)
文摘The South China Sea(SCS)is the largest marginal sea in the Northwest Pacific Ocean,and it encounters frequent typhoons.The atmosphere and ocean will create significant thermal and dynamic responses during the intense disturbance caused by typhoons.However,these responses have not been thoroughly investigated owing to the complicated marine environment.According to the satellite data,the SCS Basin was observed to have a strong sea surface temperature(SST)response to Typhoon Mangkhut,resulting in widespread SST cooling.A coupled model was used to investigate the atmospheric and oceanic responses to Typhoon Mangkhut.Best-track data,satellite SST,and ARGO measurements show that the coupled WRF-CROCO simulation displays better track,intensity,SST,temperature,and salinity profiles than those of the WRF-only simulation.Results show that the typhoon induced rightward intensifications in wind speed,ocean current,and SST.The following are some remarkable atmosphere and ocean responses:(1)the SST below the inner-core region is cooled by 1℃,resulting in a 37%-44%decrease in wet enthalpy,and the central pressure is increased by~9 hPa.Therefore,the changes in SST below the innercore region of the SCS Basin have a significant impact on air-sea fluxes under high-wind conditions;(2)the ocean boundary layer analysis shows that near-inertial oscillations on the right side of the typhoon track and a strong inertial current up to~2.28 m/s in the upper ocean were observed,which resonated with the local wind and flow field on the right side and induced strong SST cooling;(3)a decrease in SST decreased the moist static energy of the typhoon boundary layer,thereby weakening the typhoon’s intensity.The difference in equivalent potential temperature and sea surface pressure have a good correlation,indicating that the influence of moist static energy on typhoon intensity cannot be overlooked.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U1811464,U2142213)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grants Nos.2020A1515110275,2020A1515110040,2022A1515011870)the Special program for innovation and development of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2021Z006,CXFZ2022P026).
文摘Landfalling typhoons can cause disasters over large regions.The government and emergency responders need to take measures to mitigate disasters according to the forecast of landfall position,while slight timing error can be ignored.The reliability of operational model forecasts of typhoon landfall position needs to be evaluated beforehand,according to the forecasts and observation of historical cases.In the evaluation of landfalling typhoon track,the traditional method based on point-to-point matching methods could be influenced by the predicted typhoon translation speed.Consequently,the traditional track evaluation method may result in a large track error even if the predicted landfall position is close to observation.The purpose of this paper is to address the above issue using a simple evaluation method of landfalling typhoon track forecast based on the time neighborhood approach.In this new method,the timing error was lessened to highlight the importance of the position error during the landfall of typhoon.The properties of the time neighborhood method are compared with the traditional method based on numerical forecast results of 12 landfalling typhoon cases.Results demonstrated that the new method is not sensitive to the sampling frequency,and that the difference between the time neighborhood and traditional method will be more obvious when the moving speed of typhoon is moderate(between 15−30 km h^(−1)).The time neighborhood concept can be easily extended to a broader context when one attempts to examine the position error more than the timing error.
基金financially supported by the CRSRI Open Research Program (Grant No.CKWV20221007/KY)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.51979172)+3 种基金Jiangsu Provincial Water Conservancy Technology Project (Grant Nos.2020002,2021025,and 2021029)Fundamental Research Funds for Central Public Welfare Research Institutes (Y223002)Innovation Team Project of Estuarine and Coastal Protection and Management (Grant No.Y220013)the Major Scientific Projects of the Ministry of Water Resources (Grant No.SKS-2022087)。
文摘In the last two decades,the Yangtze Estuary has undergone significant changes under the influence of reduced sediment inflow and estuary engineering.This study investigates the influence of floods and typhoons on sediment concentration and the morphological evolution of shoals and channels in the Yangtze Estuary.The analysis is conducted through the utilization of topographic data measured pre-and post-flood events and observations of hydro-sedimentary changes during typhoons.By using a generalized estuary mathematical model,this study examines the interplay between varying tidal ranges,tidal divisions,runoff volumes,and regulation projects on the erosion and deposition of shoals and channels in bifurcated estuaries.The results show that due to the implementation of river and waterway regulation projects,the impact of the 2020 flood on the main channel and shoal was significantly less than that of the1998 flood.The swing amplitude of the South Branch main channel decreased.However,local river sections such as the Southern Waterway of Baimao Shoal exhibited erosion.During typhoons,sediment concentration in the 20 cm above the bottom increased significantly and was closely related to wave processes,with a weakened correlation to tidal dynamics.After typhoons,high shoals in South Passage above 0 m were silted up,while the terrain on one side of the tail of Jiuduan Shoal in the downstream deep-water area was generally scoured due to strong wave action.The generalized mathematical model of the bifurcated estuary revealed that M2 tidal component contributed most to the ero sion and deposition evolution of estuary shoals and channels,with floods exhibiting characteristics of sedime ntation on shoals and erosion on channels.With the implementation of a branch rectification project,branch resistance increased,diversion decreased,and the riverbed changed from pre-project erosion to post-project sedimentation,with an increase in erosion in non-project branches.
文摘This paper analyzes the causes of the offshore strength enhancement of Typhoon Tiange (No. 1713) from four aspects: high and low layer divergence, vertical wind shear, southwest monsoon transport, offshore sea temperature and weak cold air. The conclusions are as follows: The high-level airflow divergence enhancement and positive vorticity advection in the offshore, strengthen the middle rise movement of the “Tiange”, and the ascending movement enhances the strength of the “Tiange” by strengthening the lower layer convergence;The high offshore sea temperature and sea temperature are changing temperature, which also has a certain effect on the strengthening of “Tiange” in the offshore;The strengthening of the southwest warm and humid airflow provides sufficient water vapor and energy for the development of “Tiange”, which is beneficial to the maintenance of the typhoon warm heart structure;The intrusion of weak cold air, enhanced the radiation cooperation of the lower typhoon disturbance, which is beneficial to the enhancement of “Tiange”.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41906014,U20A2099 and 41976017)。
文摘In this study,the effects of surface exchange coefficients on simulations of Super Typhoon Megi(2010)are investigated using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model.Several experiments are conducted using different parameterization schemes for the drag(C_(D))and enthalpy exchange(C_(K))coefficients.For the selected case,considering only the leveling-off of C_(D)at high wind speeds does not effectively improve the simulated typhoon track,intensity,or size.We found that increasing C_(K)monotonically with wind speed(Komori et al.,2018)yields stronger winds and deeper pressures by enhancing latent and sensible heat fluxes,but typhoon intensity remains underestimated.We propose a new higher C_(K)than that from Komori et al.(2018)based on the theory of Emanuel(1995).This approach produces a greater modeled typhoon intensity that is in good agreement with the best track data and effectively improves the track error for the simulation.Improved accuracy for modeled typhoon intensity is achieved with the new coefficient because C_(K)/C_(D)reaches the threshold of about 0.75 predicted by Emanuel(1995).The new proposed C_(K)also results in a reasonably accurate modeled sea surface temperature.However,typhoon size and surface wave height are overestimated.This finding implies that more numerical tests for tropical cyclones of different nature(such as strong,weak,dissipating,rapidly intensifying,or weakening tropical cyclones)should be studied,and more physical processes should be explored in future coupled models.
基金The Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.LHZ22D060001the Scientific Research Funds of the Second Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources under contract Nos JG2315 and XRJH2309the National Key R&D Program of China under contract No.2022YFC3106200.
文摘Beach erosion has occurred globally in recent decades due to frequent and severe storms.Dongsha beach,located in Zhujiajian Island,Zhejiang Province,China,is a typical embayed sandy beach.This study focused on the morphodynamic response of Dongsha beach to typhoon events,based on beach topographies and surficial sediment characteristics acquired before and after four typhoon events with varying intensities.The four typhoons had different effects on the topography and sediment characteristics of Dongsha beach.Typhoons Ampil and Danas caused the largest(-51.72 m3/m)and the smallest erosion(-8.01 m3/m),respectively.Remarkable alongshore patterns of beach profile volumetric changes were found after the four typhoon events,with more erosion in the southern and central parts of the beach and few changes in the northern part.Grain size coarsening and poor sorting were the main sediment patterns on the beach influenced by different typhoons.Typhoons that occurred in the same year after another typhoon enhanced the effect of the previous typhoon on sediment coarsening and sorting variability,but this cumulative effect was not found between typhoons that occurred during different years.A comparison of the collected data revealed that the topographic state of the beach before the typhoon,typhoon characteristics,and tidal conditions were possible reasons for the difference in the responses of Dongsha beach to typhoon events.More severe beach erosion was caused by typhoons with higher intensity levels and longer durations,and high tide levels during typhoons can determine the upper limit of the beach profile erosion site.Taken together,these results can be used to improve beach management for storm prevention.
基金This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(No.2016YFB0201100)Additionally,this work is supported by the National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)Major Project of the Aoshan Science and Technology Innovation Program(No.2018ASKJ01-04)the Open Fundation of Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Simulation,Ministry of Natural Resources(No.2021-YB-02).
文摘In this paper,a typical experiment is carried out based on a high-resolution air-sea coupled model,namely,the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport(COAWST)model,on both heterogeneous many-core(SW)and homogenous multicore(Intel)supercomputing platforms.We construct a hindcast of Typhoon Lekima on both the SW and Intel platforms,compare the simulation results between these two platforms and compare the key elements of the atmospheric and ocean modules to reanalysis data.The comparative experiment in this typhoon case indicates that the domestic many-core computing platform and general cluster yield almost no differences in the simulated typhoon path and intensity,and the differences in surface pressure(PSFC)in the WRF model and sea surface temperature(SST)in the short-range forecast are very small,whereas a major difference can be identified at high latitudes after the first 10 days.Further heat budget analysis verifies that the differences in SST after 10 days are mainly caused by shortwave radiation variations,as influenced by subsequently generated typhoons in the system.These typhoons generated in the hindcast after the first 10 days attain obviously different trajectories between the two platforms.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52071306,52101360)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(No.ZR2019MEE050)the State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering(No.LP2104)。
文摘The South China Sea suffers strongly from the typhoon storm surge disasters in China,and its northern coastal areas are facing severe risks.Therefore,it is necessary and urgent to establish an assessment system for rating typhoon storm surge disaster.We constructed an effective and reliable rating assessment system for typhoon storm surge disaster based on the theories of over-threshold,distribution function family,and composite extreme value.The over-threshold sample was used as the basis of data analysis,the composite extreme value expansion model was used to derive the design water increment,and then the disaster level was delineated based on the return period level.The results of the extreme value model comparison show that the Weibull-Pareto distribution is more suitable than the classical extreme value distribution for fitting the over-threshold samples.The results of the return period projection are relatively stable based on different analysis samples.Taking the 10 typhoon storm surges as examples,they caused landfall in the Guangdong area in the past 10 years.The results of the assessment ranking indicate that the risk levels based on the return period levels obtained from different distributions are generally consistent.When classifying low-risk areas,the classification criteria of the State Oceanic Administration,China(SOA,2012)are more conservative.In the high-risk areas,the results of the assessment ranking based on return period are more consistent with those of the SOA.