As an approach to the technological problem that the wind data of QuikSCAT scatterometer cannot accurately describe the zone of typhoon-level strong wind speed, some objective factors such as the typhoon moving speed,...As an approach to the technological problem that the wind data of QuikSCAT scatterometer cannot accurately describe the zone of typhoon-level strong wind speed, some objective factors such as the typhoon moving speed, direction and friction are introduced in this study to construct the asymmetric strengthening of the QuikSCAT wind field. Then by adopting a technology of four-dimensional data assimilation, an experiment that includes both the assimilation and forecasting phases is designed to simulate Typhoon Rananim numerically. The results show that with model constraints and adjustment, this technology can incorporate the QuikSCAT wind data to the entire column of the model atmosphere, improve greatly the simulating effects of the whole-column wind, pressure field and the track as well as the simulated typhoon intensity covered by the forecast phase, and work positively for the forecasting of landfall locations.展开更多
采用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式及其三维变分同化模块WRF-3DVar,开展了中法海洋卫星(China-France Oceanography SATellite,CFOSAT)散射计风场资料同化及数值预报试验研究,对比分析了同化常规观测资料及进一步同化CFOSA...采用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式及其三维变分同化模块WRF-3DVar,开展了中法海洋卫星(China-France Oceanography SATellite,CFOSAT)散射计风场资料同化及数值预报试验研究,对比分析了同化常规观测资料及进一步同化CFOSAT散射计风场资料后对台风“白鹿”预报效果的影响。结果表明:与不进行资料同化相比,同化常规观测资料使台风路径预报平均绝对误差(Mean Absolute Error,MAE)降低20 km以上,中心最低海平面气压平均绝对误差降低3%以上,但中心最大风速没有明显改善;同化CFOSAT卫星散射计风场资料后,台风路径和强度的预报效果得到进一步改善,与不进行资料同化相比,台风路径预报的平均绝对误差降低30 km以上,中心最低海平面气压平均绝对误差降低约7%,中心最大风速的预报平均绝对误差降低幅度超过20%。展开更多
基金National Key Fundamental Research and Development Plan of China (2004CB418301)Natural Science Foundation of China (40830958)
文摘As an approach to the technological problem that the wind data of QuikSCAT scatterometer cannot accurately describe the zone of typhoon-level strong wind speed, some objective factors such as the typhoon moving speed, direction and friction are introduced in this study to construct the asymmetric strengthening of the QuikSCAT wind field. Then by adopting a technology of four-dimensional data assimilation, an experiment that includes both the assimilation and forecasting phases is designed to simulate Typhoon Rananim numerically. The results show that with model constraints and adjustment, this technology can incorporate the QuikSCAT wind data to the entire column of the model atmosphere, improve greatly the simulating effects of the whole-column wind, pressure field and the track as well as the simulated typhoon intensity covered by the forecast phase, and work positively for the forecasting of landfall locations.
文摘采用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式及其三维变分同化模块WRF-3DVar,开展了中法海洋卫星(China-France Oceanography SATellite,CFOSAT)散射计风场资料同化及数值预报试验研究,对比分析了同化常规观测资料及进一步同化CFOSAT散射计风场资料后对台风“白鹿”预报效果的影响。结果表明:与不进行资料同化相比,同化常规观测资料使台风路径预报平均绝对误差(Mean Absolute Error,MAE)降低20 km以上,中心最低海平面气压平均绝对误差降低3%以上,但中心最大风速没有明显改善;同化CFOSAT卫星散射计风场资料后,台风路径和强度的预报效果得到进一步改善,与不进行资料同化相比,台风路径预报的平均绝对误差降低30 km以上,中心最低海平面气压平均绝对误差降低约7%,中心最大风速的预报平均绝对误差降低幅度超过20%。
