Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model

The South China Sea suffers strongly from the typhoon storm surge disasters in China,and its northern coastal areas are facing severe risks.Therefore,it is necessary and urgent to establish an assessment system for rating typhoon storm surge disaster.We constructed an effective and reliable rating assessment system for typhoon storm surge disaster based on the theories of over-threshold,distribution function family,and composite extreme value.The over-threshold sample was used as the basis of data analysis,the composite extreme value expansion model was used to derive the design water increment,and then the disaster level was delineated based on the return period level.The results of the extreme value model comparison show that the Weibull-Pareto distribution is more suitable than the classical extreme value distribution for fitting the over-threshold samples.The results of the return period projection are relatively stable based on different analysis samples.Taking the 10 typhoon storm surges as examples,they caused landfall in the Guangdong area in the past 10 years.The results of the assessment ranking indicate that the risk levels based on the return period levels obtained from different distributions are generally consistent.When classifying low-risk areas,the classification criteria of the State Oceanic Administration,China(SOA,2012)are more conservative.In the high-risk areas,the results of the assessment ranking based on return period are more consistent with those of the SOA.

Numerical simulation of typhoon- induced storm surge on the coast of Jiangsu Province,China,based on coupled hydrodynamic and wave models

In order to facilitate engineering design and coastal flooding protection, the potential storm surge induced by a typhoon is studied.Using an unstructured mesh, a coupled model which combines the advanced circulation （ ADCIRC ） hydrodynamic model and simulating waves nearshore （ SWAN ） model is applied to analyze the storm surge and waves on the coast of Jiangsu Province.The verifications of wind velocity, tidal levels and wave height show that this coupling model performs well to reflect the characteristics of the water levels and waves in the studied region.Results show that the effect of radiation stress on storm surge is significant, especially in shallow areas such as the coast of Jiangsu Province and the Yangtze estuary.By running the coupled model, the simulated potential flooding results can be employed in coastal engineering applications in the Jiangsu coastal area, such as storm surge warnings and extreme water level predictions.