This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models have their own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statistical model ca...This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models have their own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statistical model called DLM (dynamic linear model) is applied to remove the systematic error. In the analysis of typhoons occurring over the western North Pacific in 1997 and 2000, DLM is useful as an adaptive model for the prediction of typhoon tracks.展开更多
A series of 96-h typhoon track prediction experiments were carried out using medium range forecasting system of NMC by adding BOGUS typhoon (simplified as B-TC) into the first guess field or the analysis field in orde...A series of 96-h typhoon track prediction experiments were carried out using medium range forecasting system of NMC by adding BOGUS typhoon (simplified as B-TC) into the first guess field or the analysis field in order to provide longer time typhoon track forecast. The results show that T106L19 could provide a better forecast to typhoon tracks when the B-TC was added, especially when the typhoon vortex is even weaker. The sensitive experiments on where to add the B-TC show that the results from adding the B-TC into the first guess field are better. The results also show that the initialization smoothes the B-TC a lot and this will affect the typhoon track prediction.展开更多
A bogus typhoon scheme,designed for the initialization of a typhoon track prediction model,is developed in thispaper.This scheme includes both effects of axisymmetric wind and asymmetric wind.Experimental forecasts us...A bogus typhoon scheme,designed for the initialization of a typhoon track prediction model,is developed in thispaper.This scheme includes both effects of axisymmetric wind and asymmetric wind.Experimental forecasts using atwo-way interactive movable nested mesh model show that the forecast skill of typhoon tracks has clearly improvedafter introducing the bogus typhoon into the initial fields.展开更多
Five prediction experiments are carried out with two typhoons in 1992 using a limited -arca primitiveequations and two-way interactive model in a movable ,nested mesh. The result indicates good agreementin terms of mo...Five prediction experiments are carried out with two typhoons in 1992 using a limited -arca primitiveequations and two-way interactive model in a movable ,nested mesh. The result indicates good agreementin terms of motion between the prediction and observation. Studying the asymmetric structure in the cas-es selected, a close link is uncovered between the temporal evolutions of the structure and the track of motion in a tropical cyclone. Understanding of real asymmetric structure will help to improve the skill offorecasting tropical cyclones.展开更多
基金the project"A study on improving forecast skill using a su-percomputer"of Meteorological Research Institute,KMA,2001.
文摘This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models have their own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statistical model called DLM (dynamic linear model) is applied to remove the systematic error. In the analysis of typhoons occurring over the western North Pacific in 1997 and 2000, DLM is useful as an adaptive model for the prediction of typhoon tracks.
基金Key scientific research project for the State Meteorological Administration in the 9 five-year development plan (ZX95-01)
文摘A series of 96-h typhoon track prediction experiments were carried out using medium range forecasting system of NMC by adding BOGUS typhoon (simplified as B-TC) into the first guess field or the analysis field in order to provide longer time typhoon track forecast. The results show that T106L19 could provide a better forecast to typhoon tracks when the B-TC was added, especially when the typhoon vortex is even weaker. The sensitive experiments on where to add the B-TC show that the results from adding the B-TC into the first guess field are better. The results also show that the initialization smoothes the B-TC a lot and this will affect the typhoon track prediction.
文摘A bogus typhoon scheme,designed for the initialization of a typhoon track prediction model,is developed in thispaper.This scheme includes both effects of axisymmetric wind and asymmetric wind.Experimental forecasts using atwo-way interactive movable nested mesh model show that the forecast skill of typhoon tracks has clearly improvedafter introducing the bogus typhoon into the initial fields.
文摘Five prediction experiments are carried out with two typhoons in 1992 using a limited -arca primitiveequations and two-way interactive model in a movable ,nested mesh. The result indicates good agreementin terms of motion between the prediction and observation. Studying the asymmetric structure in the cas-es selected, a close link is uncovered between the temporal evolutions of the structure and the track of motion in a tropical cyclone. Understanding of real asymmetric structure will help to improve the skill offorecasting tropical cyclones.
