Trend of Storm Surge Induced by Typical Landfall Super Typhoons During 1975–2021 in the Eastern China Sea

Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.

Assimilating FY-4A AGRI Radiances with a Channel-Sensitive Cloud Detection Scheme for the Analysis and Forecasting of Multiple Typhoons

This paper presents an attempt at assimilating clear-sky FY-4A Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager(AGRI)radiances from two water vapor channels for the prediction of three landfalling typhoon events over the West Pacific Ocean using the 3DVar data assimilation(DA)method along with the WRF model.A channel-sensitive cloud detection scheme based on the particle filter(PF)algorithm is developed and examined against a cloud detection scheme using the multivariate and minimum residual(MMR)algorithm and another traditional cloud mask–dependent cloud detection scheme.Results show that both channel-sensitive cloud detection schemes are effective,while the PF scheme is able to reserve more pixels than the MMR scheme for the same channel.In general,the added value of AGRI radiances is confirmed when comparing with the control experiment without AGRI radiances.Moreover,it is found that the analysis fields of the PF experiment are mostly improved in terms of better depicting the typhoon,including the temperature,moisture,and dynamical conditions.The typhoon track forecast skill is improved with AGRI radiance DA,which could be explained by better simulating the upper trough.The impact of assimilating AGRI radiances on typhoon intensity forecasts is small.On the other hand,improved rainfall forecasts from AGRI DA experiments are found along with reduced errors for both the thermodynamic and moisture fields,albeit the improvements are limited.

Mechanism of the Impact of Floods and Typhoons on the Morphological Evolution of the Yangtze Estuary

In the last two decades,the Yangtze Estuary has undergone significant changes under the influence of reduced sediment inflow and estuary engineering.This study investigates the influence of floods and typhoons on sediment concentration and the morphological evolution of shoals and channels in the Yangtze Estuary.The analysis is conducted through the utilization of topographic data measured pre-and post-flood events and observations of hydro-sedimentary changes during typhoons.By using a generalized estuary mathematical model,this study examines the interplay between varying tidal ranges,tidal divisions,runoff volumes,and regulation projects on the erosion and deposition of shoals and channels in bifurcated estuaries.The results show that due to the implementation of river and waterway regulation projects,the impact of the 2020 flood on the main channel and shoal was significantly less than that of the1998 flood.The swing amplitude of the South Branch main channel decreased.However,local river sections such as the Southern Waterway of Baimao Shoal exhibited erosion.During typhoons,sediment concentration in the 20 cm above the bottom increased significantly and was closely related to wave processes,with a weakened correlation to tidal dynamics.After typhoons,high shoals in South Passage above 0 m were silted up,while the terrain on one side of the tail of Jiuduan Shoal in the downstream deep-water area was generally scoured due to strong wave action.The generalized mathematical model of the bifurcated estuary revealed that M2 tidal component contributed most to the ero sion and deposition evolution of estuary shoals and channels,with floods exhibiting characteristics of sedime ntation on shoals and erosion on channels.With the implementation of a branch rectification project,branch resistance increased,diversion decreased,and the riverbed changed from pre-project erosion to post-project sedimentation,with an increase in erosion in non-project branches.

Numerical investigation of ocean waves generated by three typhoons in offshore China

The influences of the three types of reanalysis wind fields on the simulation of three typhoon waves occurred in2015 in offshore China were numerically investigated.The typhoon wave model was based on the simulating waves nearshore model(SWAN),in which the wind fields for driving waves were derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Re-Analysis-Interim(ERA-interim),the National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate forecast system version 2(CFSv2)and cross-calibrated multi-platform(CCMP)datasets.Firstly,the typhoon waves generated during the occurrence of typhoons Chan-hom(1509),Linfa(1510)and Nangka(1511)in 2015 were simulated by using the wave model driven by ERA-interim,CFSv2 and CCMP datasets.The numerical results were validated using buoy data and satellite observation data,and the simulation results under the three types of wind fields were in good agreement with the observed data.The numerical results showed that the CCMP wind data was the best in simulating waves overall,and the wind speeds pertaining to ERA-Interim and CCMP were notably smaller than those observed near the typhoon centre.To correct the accuracy of the wind fields,the Holland theoretical wind model was used to revise and optimize the wind speed pertaining to the CCMP near the typhoon centre.The results indicated that the CCMP wind-driven SWAN model could appropriately simulate the typhoon waves generated by three typhoons in offshore China,and the use of the CCMP/Holland blended wind field could effectively improve the accuracy of typhoon wave simulations.

Preliminary Study on Underwater Ambient Noise Generated by Typhoons

We present a typhoon-generated noise model with which the noise intensity during typhoons can be estimated accurately. The model is verified through experimental study, and the simulation results agree reasonably with the experimental data. The measured noise intensity is approximately proportional to the cube of the local wind speed.

INVESTIGATION ON EFFECTS OF INITIAL SCHEMES FOR BINARY TYPHOONS ROKE AND SONCA IN 2011

Based on the Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling System for South China Sea(TRAMS),Typhoon Roke(1115) and Sonca(1116) in 2011 which have large forecast errors in numerical operation prediction,have been selected for research focusing on the initial scheme and its influence on forecast.The purpose is to find a clue for model improvement and enhance the performance of the typhoon model.Several initialization schemes have been designed and the corresponding experiments have been done for Typhoon Roke and Sonca.The results show that the forecast error of both typhoons' track and intensity are less using the initial scheme of relocation and bogus just for the weak Typhoon Sonca,compared with using the scheme for both typhoons.By analysis the influence of the scheme on weak typhoon vortex circulation may be the reason that leads to the improvement.All weak typhoons in 2011 to 2012 are selected for tests.It comes to the conclusion that the initial scheme of relocation and bogus can reduce the error of track and intensity forecast.Besides,the height of cloud top in typhoon vortex constructed by bogus is too high according to weak typhoon.It is feasible to develop a bogus which is suitable for weak typhoon.

Formation and Prevention of Hurricanes,Typhoons and Cyclones

Hurricanes,typhoons and cyclones are the most destructive weather systems.In order to mitigate the disasters caused by these storms,it is necessary to clarify the cause and activity rule of these storms.However,the formation of hurricanes,typhoons and cyclones as well as the cause of their path and strength changes still remains the major unsolved problems in today’s world.Fortunately,the author has recently studied the formation and activity of polar vortices,therefore can reveal the formation and current driving warm core structure of hurricanes,typhoons and cyclones,which plays an important guiding role in preventing major disasters caused by them.The author finds that all hurricanes,typhoons and cyclones are formed by polar vortices pulled by the moon.In order to prevent hurricanes from raging along the east coast of the United States or cyclones from setting wildfires in western United States,the potentially dangerous vortex genesises near Baffin Island and those over northeastern Siberia should be monitored and weakened in the month before they prevail;in order to prevent typhoons from ravaging the Northwest Pacific or South China Sea,the potentially dangerous vortex genesises over northeastern Siberia should be monitored and weakened in the month before they prevail;in order to prevent cyclones from raging over the South Indian Ocean or the Bay of Bengal,the potentially dangerous vortex genesises in Antarctic should be monitored and weakened in the month before they prevail;in order to avoid abnormal cold in late winter or early spring in the Northern Hemisphere,the potentially dangerous Arctic cold vortex genesises near Baffin Island and those over northeastern Siberia should be monitored and weakened in the month before they prevail.

Lightning Activity and Its Relation to the Intensity of Typhoons over the Northwest Pacific Ocean

ABSTRACT Data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network （WWLLN） were used to analyze the lightning activity and the relationship between maximum sustained wind and lightning rate in 69 tropical cyclones over the Northwest Pacific Ocean from 2005 to 2009. The minimum lightning density was observed in the category 2 typhoon Kong-Rey （2007）, with a value of only 1.15 d-1 （100 kin）-2. The maximum lightning density occurred in the category 2 typhoon Mitag （2007）, with a value of 510.42 d-1 （100 km）-2. The average lightning density decreased with radius from the typhoon center in both weak （categories 1-3） and super （categories 4-5） typhoons. The average lightning density in the inner core of super typhoons was more than twice as large as that for weak typhoons. Both groups of typhoons showed a near-monotonic decrease in lightning density with radius. Results also showed that lightning activity was more active in typhoons that made landfall than in those that did not. The mean correlation coefficient between the accumulated flashes within a 600-kin radius and the maximum wind speed in the weak typhoons and super typhoons was 0.81 and 0.74, respectively. For more than 78% （56%） of the super （weak） typhoons, the lightning activity peaked before the maximum sustained wind speed, with the most common leading time being 30 （60） h. The results suggest that, for the Northwest Pacific Ocean, lightning activity might be used as a measurement of the intensification of typhoons.

Effect of the Interaction of Different Scale Vortices on the Structure and Motion of Typhoons

Five numerical experiments have been performed in this paper by using a quasigtostrophic barotropical model to investigate the interaction of different scale vortiCes on the structure and motion of typhoons.Results show that this interaction may arouse the irregular changes of the asymmetric structure of typhoons,thus leading to anomalous Phenomena such as meandering tracks and sudden changes in the motion speed of typhoons;the ￣t Of this interaction on the strucure and motion may be quite different when the smaller vortex is situated in different Posihons of the typhoon circulation.

Estimation and Prediction of Typhoons and Wave Overtopping in Qingdao, China

This study aims to estimate and predict the impact of climate change on typhoons and wave overtopping during typhoon progresses in Qingdao, China. The SWAN wave model is used to simulate wave elements. The scale coefficients of wave overtopping are estimated using an empirical prediction formula. A total of 75 tropical cyclones affected Qingdao from 1949 to 2019. These tropical cyclones can be grouped into eight categories according to typhoon tracks. Typhoon wind speed during Track G is projected to decrease, and those of the other seven typhoon progresses will increase by 0.35% – 0.75% in 2025, 0.69% – 1.5% in 2035, and 1.38% – 3.0% in 2055. The significant wave height and wave overtopping outside the bay are greater than those inside the bay. Among the 506 typical points selected, the maximum values of the significant wave height and wave overtopping inside the bay are mainly distributed in the range of 0 – 2 m and 0 – 60 m^3 km^(-1) s^(-1), respectively. The increments of the significant wave height and wave overtopping of Track F are most obvious. The significant wave height of Track F will increase by 50.5% in 2025, 51.8% in 2035, and 53.4% in 2055. In the 2℃ scenario, the maximum value of wave overtopping of Track F will increase by 21.9% in 2025, 24.3% in 2035, and 29.5% in 2055. In the 4℃ scenario, the maximum value of wave overtopping of Track F will increase by 21.9% in 2025, 24.3% in 2035, and 29.5% in 2055.

Numerical simulation and preliminary analysis of typhoon waves during three typhoons in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

In this study,typhoon waves generated during three typhoons(Damrey(1210),Fung-wong(1416),and Chan-hom(1509))in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea were simulated in a simulating waves nearshore(SWAN)model,and the wind forcing was constructed by combining reanalyzed wind data with a Holland typhoon wind model.Various parameters,such as the Holland fitting parameter(B)and the maximum wind radius?,were investigated in sensitivity experiments in the Holland model that affect the wind field construction.Six different formulations were considered and the parameters determined by comparing the simulated wind results with in-situ wind measurements.The key factors affecting wave growth and dissipation processes from deep to shallow waters were studied,including wind input,whitecapping,and bottom friction.Comparison with in-situ wave measurements suggested that the KOMEN scheme(wind input exponential growth and whitecapping energy dissipation)and the JONSWAP scheme(dissipation of bottom friction)resulted in good reproduction of the significant wave height of typhoon waves.A preliminary analysis of the wave characteristics in terms of wind-sea and swell wave revealed that swell waves dominated with the distance of R to the eye of the typhoon,while wind-sea prevailed in the outer region up to six to eight times the R values despite a clear misalignment between wind and waves.The results support the hypothesis that nonlinear wave-wave interactions may play a key role in the formation of wave characteristics.

Features of near-inertial motions observed on the northern South China Sea shelf during the passage of two typhoons

Features of near-inertial motions on the shelf （60 m deep） of the northern South China Sea were observed under the passage of two typhoons during the summer of 2009. There are two peaks in spectra at both sub-inertial and super-inertial frequencies. The super-inertial energy maximizes near the surface, while the sub-inertial energy maximizes at a deeper layer of 15 m. The sub-inertial shift of frequency is induced by the negative background vorticity. The super-inertial shift is probably attributed to the near-inertial wave propagating from higher latitudes. The near-inertial currents exhibit a two-layer pattern being separated at mid-depth （25-30 m）, with the phase in the upper layer being nearly opposite to that in the lower layer. The vertical propagation of phase implies that the near-inertial energy is not dominantly downward. The upward flux of the near-inertial energy is more evident at the surface layer （〈17 m）. There exist two boundaries at 17 and 40 rn, where the near-inertial energy is reflected upward and downward. The near-inertial motion is intermittent and can reach a peak of as much as 30 cm/s. The passage of Typhoon Nangka generates an intensive near-inertial event, but Typhoon Linfa does not. This difference is attributed to the relative moor- ing locations, which is on the right hand side of Nangka＇s path （leading to a wind pattern rotating clockwise with time） and is on the left hand side of Linfa＇s path （leading to a wind pattern rotating anti-clockwise with time）.

Seepage safety monitoring model for an earth rock dam under influence of high-impact typhoons based on particle swarm optimization algorithm

Extreme hydrological events induced by typhoons in reservoir areas have presented severe challenges to the safe operation of hydraulic structures. Based on analysis of the seepage characteristics of an earth rock dam, a novel seepage safety monitoring model was constructed in this study. The nonlinear influence processes of the antecedent reservoir water level and rainfall were assumed to follow normal distributions. The particle swarm optimization （PSO） algorithm was used to optimize the model parameters so as to raise the fitting accuracy. In addition, a mutation factor was introduced to simulate the sudden increase in the piezometric level induced by short-duration heavy rainfall and the possible historical extreme reservoir water level during a typhoon. In order to verify the efficacy of this model, the earth rock dam of the Siminghu Reservoir was used as an example. The piezometric level at the SW1-2 measuring point during Typhoon Fitow in 2013 was fitted with the present model, and a corresponding theoretical expression was established. Comparison of fitting results of the piezometric level obtained from the present statistical model and traditional statistical model with monitored values during the typhoon shows that the present model has a higher fitting accuracy and can simulate the uprush feature of the seepage pressure during the typhoon perfectly.

Impacts of Typhoons Tianying and Dawei on seagrass distribution in Xincun Bay,Hainan Province,China

More than 50% of the typhoons landing in China have landed on the southeast coast, where they have caused great pressure on the coastal environment. Seagrass, one of the most important con- stituents of coastal ecosystems, is also greatly affected by typhoons. In order to clarify how seagrass distribution variation is affected by typhoons in coastal areas in southeast China, data of Typhoons Dawei and Tianying （category 4 and category 2 respectively, which just ran through the southern part of Hainan province） have been studied. In situ observation and satellite remote sensing data （CBERS-China Brazil Earth Resources Satellite） in 2004 and 2006 were used to retrieve seagrass distribution in Xincun Bay, Hainan province. In situ observations showed that leaf length, stem biomass and above ground biomass on average showed evidence of reduction after Typhoons Tiany- ing and Dawei. However, seagrass density showed no evidence of reduction after typhoon Tianying and Dawei passed by and increased rapidly in January 2006. From results of satellite remote sensing data, seagrass distribution can be detected with high accuracy, and the area of seagrass distribution on the south coast of Xincun Bay in 2006 after the typhoon passed by was smaller than that in 2004 in region A and B. However, in region C, area of seagrass coverage under 20% increased. These results demonstrated that typhoons Tianying and Dawei damaged seagrass bed and helped seagrass to get rid of aged and dead leaves, and this correspondingly facilitated seagrass growth.

Assessing the Forecasting of Comprehensive Loss Incurred by Typhoons:A Combined PCA and BP Neural Network Model

This paper develops a joint model utilizing the principal component analysis(PCA)and the back propagation(BP)neural network model optimized by the Levenberg Marquardt(LM)algorithm,and as an application of the joint model to investigate the damages caused by typhoons for a coastal province,Fujian Province,China in 2005-2015(latest).First,the PCA is applied to analyze comprehensively the relationship between hazard factors,hazard bearing factors and disaster factors.Then five integrated indices,overall disaster level,typhoon intensity,damaged condition of houses,medical rescue and self-rescue capability,are extracted through the PCA;Finally,the BP neural network model,which takes the principal component scores as input and is optimized by the LM algorithm,is implemented to forecast the comprehensive loss of typhoons.It is estimated that an average annual loss of 138.514 billion RMB occurred for 2005-2015,with a maximum loss of 215.582 in 2006 and a decreasing trend since 2010 though the typhoon intensity increases.The model was validated using three typhoon events and it is found that the error is less than 1%.These results provide information for the government to increase medical institutions and medical workers and for the communities to promote residents’self-rescue capability.

Impacts of Typhoons on the Kuroshio Large Meander:Observation Evidences

The formation of the Kuroshio large meander in summer 2004 was investigated by using the cruise data,Argo profiles data,and satellite remote sensing data.The authors validated the point that cyclonic eddies contrib-uted to the large meander.Besides,.the impacts of ty-phoons on Kuroshio meanders were also studied.From 29 July to 4 August,the typhoons stirred the ocean and up-welled the deep water,which enhanced the existed cyc-lonic eddy,and immediately made a drastic meander of the Kuroshio.Moreover,the unexpected typhoons in June 2004 also contributed to the initial meander at the Tokara Strait.The result suggests an alternative meander mecha-nism of the Kuroshio path via the typhoon-eddy-Kuroshio interactions.It is argued that typhoons accompanied with cyclonic eddies,might play crucial roles in meanders of the Kuroshio.This will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the western boundary flows,like the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream,and will be useful in eddy-resolution models.

A STUDY ON TYPHOON MOVEMENT PART Ⅲ:EFFECT OF THE HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM EXCHANGE BETWEEN TYPHOONS AND ENVIRONMENT

Two semi-asymmetric flow patterns of typhoons are chosen to qualitatively determine the effect of exchange of horizontal momentum between inflow and outflow layers and the environment on the motion of typhoons. The results show that only the asymmetric flow component (residual after azimuthal mean flow has been removed) could cause a net momentum input into or output from a typhoon and therefore contribute to the changes in speed and direction of the typhoon movement. A typhoon with major inflow and/or outflow channels on its right (left ) side would tend to accelerate and turn left (decelerate and turn right); On the other hand, a typhoon with major inflow and/or outflow channels in the rear (front) semicircle would tend to accelerate and turn right (decelerate and turn left).

The impact of rain to observed signal from Chinese Gaofen-3 synthetic aperture radar in typhoons

Gaofen-3(GF-3),a Chinese civil synthetic aperture radar(SAR)at C-band,has operated since August 2016.Remarkably,several typhoons have been captured by GF-3 around the China Seas over its last two-year mission.In this study,six images acquired in Global Observation(GLO)and Wide ScanSAR(WSC)modes at verticalvertical(VV)polarization channel are discussed.This work focuses on investigating the observation of rainfall using GF-3 SAR.These images were collocated with winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),significant wave height simulated from the WAVEWATCH-III(WW3)model,sea surface currents from climate forecast system version 2(CFSv2)of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)and rain rate data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)satellite.Sea surface roughness,was compared with the normalized radar cross section(NRCS)from SAR observations,and indicated a 0.8 correlation(COR).We analyzed the dependences of the difference between model-simulated NRCS and SARmeasured NRCS on the TRMM rain rate and WW3-simulated significant wave height.It was found that the effects of rain on SAR damps the radar signal at incidence angles ranging from 15°to 30°,while it enhances the radar signal at incidence angles ranging from 30°to 45°and incidence angles smaller than 10°.This behavior is consistent with previous studies and an algorithm for rain rate retrieval is anticipated for GF-3 SAR.

INSTABILITY OF PERTURBATION IN TYPHOONS UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF APPROXIMATE ACTUAL WIND FIELD

With conditions of approximately actual background wind field in typhoons and a barotropic nondivergent model in a cylindrical coordinate, the problem of instability of the perturbation in typhoons isdiscussed. The results show that the warm core structure of typhoons and the activity of fanly strongcold air in the periphery are advantageous to the perturbation development in typhoons,and the strongerthe typhoons, i. e. the lower the pressure, the caster the perturbation in typhoons would develop.

Volume transport in the East Taiwan Channel in response to diff erent tracks of typhoons as revealed by HYCOM data

Northward infl ow through the East Taiwan Channel is vital in modulation of water exchange processes off northeastern Taiwan,China.In addition to the eff ects of the Kuroshio Current and westward-propagating oceanic mesoscale eddies,the seas off eastern Taiwan,China,are frequently infl uenced by typhoons.Focusing on extrema of East Taiwan Channel volume transport(ETCVT)that appear within days of typhoon infl uence,this study investigated 124 historical cyclones including 91 typhoons that passed over the study sea area off eastern Taiwan,China.Based on 25-year HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model(HYCOM)data,71%of short-term(within 10 d)ETCVT absolute values with>5 Sv occurred under the infl uence of typhoons crossing the study sea area,and the maximum short-term ETCVT extrema induced by typhoons were 12.5 and-10.9 Sv.The ETCVT extrema induced by typhoons showed reasonable positive correlation with typhoon wind speed.More importantly,the ETCVT extrema diff ered in response to diff erent typhoon tracks.Three types of typhoon were identifi ed based on their track and impact on ETCVT.Representative typhoon cases were examined to elucidate the specifi cs of each typical response.Based on historical best track data and HYCOM data,it was established that Type I typhoons caused the ETCVT to exhibit a negative extremum followed by a positive extremum.All Type I,II,and III typhoons tended to result in typical ETCVT fl uctuations in the surface mixing layer above the depth of 50-100 m,while Type II typhoons were more likely to induce ETCVT fl uctuations in the subsurface layer.The fi ndings of this study enhance understanding of ETCVT extrema that occur following typhoon passage,which is valuable for short-term physical-biogeochemical studies both in the study region and in areas downstream owing to the large net volume transport changes induced by typhoons.