Optimization model of unascertained measurement for underground mining method selection and its application

An optimization model of underground mining method selection was established on the basis of the unascertained measurement theory.Considering the geologic conditions,technology,economy and safety production,ten main factors influencing the selection of mining method were taken into account,and the comprehensive evaluation index system of mining method selection was constructed.The unascertained evaluation indices corresponding to the selected factors for the actual situation were solved both qualitatively and quantitatively.New measurement standards were constructed.Then,the unascertained measurement function of each evaluation index was established.The index weights of the factors were calculated by entropy theory,and credible degree recognition criteria were established according to the unascertained measurement theory.The results of mining method evaluation were obtained using the credible degree criteria,thus the best underground mining method was determined.Furthermore,this model was employed for the comprehensive evaluation and selection of the chosen standard mining methods in Xinli Gold Mine in Sanshandao of China.The results show that the relative superiority degrees of mining methods can be calculated using the unascertained measurement optimization model,so the optimal method can be easily determined.Meanwhile,the proposed method can take into account large amount of uncertain information in mining method selection,which can provide an effective way for selecting the optimal underground mining method.

Unascertained measurement classifying model of goal collapse prediction

Based on optimized forecast method of unascertained classifying,a unascer- tained measurement classifying model (UMC) to predict mining induced goaf collapse was established,The discriminated factors of the model are influential factors including over- burden layer type,overburden layer thickness,the complex degree of geologic structure, the inclination angle of coal bed,volume rate of the cavity region,the vertical goaf depth from the surface and space superposition layer of the goaf region.Unascertained mea- surement (UM) function of each factor was calculated.The unascertained measurement to indicate the classification center and the grade of waiting forecast sample was determined by the UM distance between the synthesis index of waiting forecast samples and index of every classification.The training samples were tested by the established model,and the correct rate is 100%.Furthermore,the seven waiting forecast samples were predicted by the UMC model.The results show that the forecast results are fully consistent with the ac- tual situation.

Integrating unascertained measurement and information entropy theory to assess blastability of rock mass

Due to the complex features of rock mass blastability assessment systems, an evaluation model of rock mass blastability was established on the basis of the unascertained measurement （UM） theory and the actual characteristics of the project. Considering a comprehensive range of intact rock properties and discontinuous structures of rock mass, twelve main factors influencing the evaluation blastability of rock mass were taken into account in the UM model, and the blastability evaluation index system of rock mass was constructed. The unascertained evaluation indices corresponding to the selected factors for the actual situation were solved both qualitatively and quantitatively. Then, the UM function of each evaluation index was obtained based on the initial data for the analysis of the blastability of six rock mass at a highway improvement cutting site in North Wales. The index weights of the factors were calculated by entropy theory, and credible degree identification （CDI） criteria were established according to the UM theory. The results of rock mass blastability evaluation were obtained by the CDI criteria. The results show that the UM model assessment results agree well with the actual records, and are consistent with those of the fuzzy sets evaluation method. Meanwhile, the unascertained superiority degree of rock mass blastability of samples S1-$6 which can be calculated by scoring criteria are 3.428 5, 3.453 3, 4.058 7, 3.675 9, 3.516 7 and 3.289 7, respectively. Furthermore, the proposed method can take into account large amount of uncertain information in blastability evaluation, which can provide an effective, credible and feasible way for estimating the blastability of rock mass. Engineering practices show that it can complete the blastability assessment systematically and scientifically without any assumption by the proposed model, which can be applied to practical engineering.

RS-UM信息系统安全保障评估模型

以GB/T20274信息系统安全保障评估框架为基础,介绍了信息系统安全保障模型及其评估指标体系,给出了评估方法的形式化描述和评估流程,提出了一种基于粗糙集(rough set,RS)和未确知测度(unascertained measure,UM)理论的信息安全评估模型。在标准处理阶段,模型采用粗糙集理论获取关键指标,简化评估指标体系;在综合评估阶段,采用未确知测度模型分析客观数据,实现了对信息系统安全保障能力的定量化综合评价。

基于Bow-Tie模型和未确知测度理论的煤矿透水风险分析

为了克服煤矿井下透水事故安全性评价相关因子的不确定性,以及权重指标赋值模糊的问题,采用Bow-Tie模型分析法通过对煤矿井下的人、物、环境、管理4个方面的分析研究,建立出煤矿透水事故的Bow-Tie评价模型,把得到的12项透水事故的影响因子作为煤矿透水事故风险评估的评价指标。通过层次分析法对指标进行权重的赋值,最后由未确知测度法确定煤矿透水事故风险评价等级。通过对小回沟煤矿进行实例评估分析,评价结果与该煤矿实际相符合,可见该法的合理性和适用性,可以为煤矿透水事故的风险评价提出一些指导。

Proposing a novel comprehensive evaluation model for the coal burst liability in underground coal mines considering uncertainty factors

Coal burst is a severe hazard that can result in fatalities and damage of facilities in underground coal mines.To address this issue,a robust unascertained combination model is proposed to study the coal burst hazard based on an updated database.Four assessment indexes are used in the model,which are the dynamic failure duration(DT),elastic energy index(WET),impact energy index(KE)and uniaxial compressive strength(RC).Four membership functions,including linear(L),parabolic(P),S and Weibull(W)functions,are proposed to measure the uncertainty level of individual index.The corresponding weights are determined through information entropy(EN),analysis hierarchy process(AHP)and synthetic weights(CW).Simultaneously,the classification criteria,including unascertained cluster(UC)and credible identification principle(CIP),are analyzed.The combination algorithm,consisting of P function,CW and CIP(P-CW-CIP),is selected as the optimal classification model in function of theory analysis and to train the samples.Ultimately,the established ensemble model is further validated through test samples with 100%accuracy.The results reveal that the hybrid model has a great potential in the coal burst hazard evaluation in underground coal mines.

基于改进未确知测度的地铁突发事件应急能力成熟度模型研究

针对地铁突发事件应急能力成熟度研究有助于地铁运营公司对应急管理的评价与提升,在能力成熟度模型和未确知测度理论的基础上,构建地铁突发事件应急能力成熟度评价模型。从事前-事中-事后角度,建立地铁突发事件应急能力评价指标体系,将影响地铁应急能力的因素分为组织与制度、监控预备能力、应急救援能力、应急处理能力、应急恢复能力和事故总结分析6类一级指标和19个二级指标。通过G1法与熵权理论相结合的方法确定各指标权重,应用盲数理论和未确知测度理论改进未确知测度模型,处理地铁突发事件应急能力评估的不确定性和模糊性。以成都地铁为例,对其进行应急能力成熟度评价,验证模型的合理性与实用性。结果表明:成都地铁应急能力总体处于规范级,其中组织与制度和应急救援能力成熟度得分较高,但监控预备能力和应急处理能力需进一步提高。

地勘单位综合应急预案评估模型研究

为实现对地勘单位综合应急预案的科学评估,基于未确知测度法-熵权法,构建了地勘单位综合应急预案评估模型。根据地勘行业的特点,划分了地勘单位综合应急预案等级,建立了地勘单位综合应急预案评估指标体系;应用未确知测度法,结合熵权法构建了地勘单位综合应急预案评估等级的测度方法。通过案例分析验证了地勘单位综合应急预案评估模型的可行性,为优化完善地勘单位综合应急预案提供有效指导。

隧道坍方风险评价的未确知测度模型及工程应用

针对隧道塌方中风险等级评价中存在许多不确定性影响因素,借鉴未确知测度理论,将隧道塌方与其影响因素之间的关系作为未确知系统,提出隧道塌方风险预测的未确知测度模型,分析影响坍方诱因,选取围岩级别、开挖跨度、埋深、偏压角度、地下水状况、施工水平共6个实测指标作为隧道塌方风险预测的主要影响因子,以武广(武汉—广州)客运专线浏阳河隧道为例,构造适于隧道塌方风险预测指标的测度函数;同时引入信息熵理论确定各指标的权重,依照置信度识别准则对其风险等级进行判定,得出隧道塌方风险分级的评价结果。将已建立的未确知测度评估模型应用到青山岗隧道和马鞍山隧道坍方风险评估中,并与工程实际情况进行对比。研究结果表明:该评价方法能解决隧道塌方中风险等级评价中诸多因素不确定性问题,可在实际工程中进行推广。

区域生态环境的未确知测度评价模型及应用

基于生态环境的信息不确定性特点,建立了区域生态环境评价的未确知测度模型。根据未确知测度的大小,确定样本所属的质量级别及样本间的优劣排序。以巢湖流域为例,运用所建模型对其生态环境质量状况进行了评价。研究表明,未确知测度模型对于多指标的区域生态环境质量评价,理论上是可行的,结果是可信的。

未确知测度模型在岩爆烈度分级预测中的应用

针对岩爆烈度分级预测评价中诸多因素不确定性问题,应用未确知测度理论并结合工程实际,根据岩爆的特点及成因,选取最大切应力σθ、单轴抗压强度σc、单轴抗拉强度σt及岩石的弹性能量指数Wet,并以应力系数σθ/σc、岩石脆性系数σc/σt及弹性能量指数Wet作为岩爆烈度分级的评价指标,建立岩爆烈度分级预测的未确知测度评价模型。以国内外18组工程岩爆分析初始数据进行分级判别,根据实际情况建立各评价因子的未确知测度函数,对其进行定量分析,并利用熵计算各评价指标的权重,依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定,最后得出岩爆烈度分级预测的评价结果。并与模糊综合评判法、属性综合评判法、灰色聚类法、物元分析法及实际情况的结果进行比较。为进一步考察该模型的有效性与实用性,运用该模型对秦岭隧道工程的岩爆实例进行分析。研究结果表明:该模型判别预测结果与实际岩爆情况较吻合,且方法科学合理,意义明确,为岩爆烈度分级预测提供一种新思路。

基于熵权和未确知测度模型的不平衡报价识别方法

针对现行工程评标过程中不平衡报价使业主遭受损失、不利于工程顺利实施的问题,提出基于熵权和未确知测度的不平衡报价识别方法,并利用熵权和未确知测度模型计算出投标报价的不平衡度。实例应用结果表明,该方法能够较为准确地识别出承包商报价的不平衡度。

基于熵权的未确知测度模型在湖库富营养化评价中的应用

利用基于熵权的未确知测度模型对8个湖库的富营养化状况进行了评价.为了有效解决权重计算困难的问题,根据各指标值的差异程度,利用熵权确定了各指标的权重.评价对比结果表明,基于熵权的未确知测度模型客观地考虑了指标权重问题且原理简单、思路清晰,利用该模型可以对湖库富营养化进行合理评价,但要注意置信度的选取范围.

综采工作面安全性的未确知-AHM综合评价模型

通过分析影响综采工作面安全性的人员、设备、作业环境以及地质因素,应用未确知方法,定义了指标的未确知测度,采用AHM法确定了各影响因素的权重和评价对象的属性权重,在此基础上建立了基于未确知和AHM的综合评价系统.最后应用实例论证了模型的正确性和适用性.

水域通航安全评估未确知测度模型

水域通航安全评估是一个涉及多因素的系统工程。为水域通航安全性进行定量评估,应用未确知测度理论建立了水域通航安全评估模型。利用此模型对珠江口水域的担杆水道、大濠水道、伶仃水道、虎门水道、大虎水道、莲花山西航道、莲花山东航道、黄埔水道等航段进行了评估。评估结果与实际相符,证明建立的模型有实际应用价值。

未确知测度模型在外排污水水质综合评价中的应用

针对单一因子划分污水水质等级不合理的问题,以印染废水处理厂出水水质为例,采用未确知测度评价模型对其进行综合评价,以确定其水质情况。结果表明,采用该方法得到的评价结果能够较为客观地反映污水水质等级情况,为外排污水水质评价提供了新的方法和途径,具有一定的理论意义和实用价值。未确知测度模型对评价空间实现了有序分割,提高了分辨率,评价效果可靠,是一种实用模型。

山仔水库周边乡镇生态质量未确知测度评价

通过建立未确知模型,结合层次分析法确定权重,对福州由仔水库周边有人类聚居点的小沧乡、潘度乡、飞竹乡、霍口乡和日溪乡的生态环境质量做出了评价。得出了它们的生态环境质量均为四级,属较差水平。而在积分上,霍口乡的环境质量最好,潘度乡最差。

基于未确知测度模型的非煤矿山安全标准化运行状况评价

为了实现对非煤矿山安全标准化运行状况的全员参与的评价,基于未确知理论,从监管、保障、能力、绩效等4个方面选取评价指标,建立安全标准化运行未确知测度模型。运用层次分析法(AHP)确定指标权重,以1级、2级、3级、4级作为评价等级。以某矿山企业为例进行评价。基于100位员工的评分结果,计算单指标未确知测度。结合权重、根据置信度识别准则,进行等级判定。最终得出该矿山企业安全标准化运行等级,并与专家考评结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明,该企业安全标准化运行等级为2级,与专家评价结果相吻合。

基于未确知聚类法的巷道围岩稳定性预测

针对影响巷道围岩稳定性的因素多且具有不确定性和隐蔽性的特点,选取实测RQD值、单轴抗压强度、隙壁状态3个主要影响因素作为判别指标,利用未确知测度理论,建立巷道围岩稳定性预测模型。利用25组巷道围岩资料作为模型构建样本,以样本均值为聚类中心,采用信息熵理论确定各判别指标的权重,从而计算样本的多指标综合测度;根据最小未确知测度距离原理判断样本所属类别,进而对巷道围岩稳定性进行预测,且用逐一回代的方法检验预测模型的合理性。刊用所建立的巷道围岩稳定性预测模型对大冶铁矿5组待判别样本进行应用预测,预测结果符合工程勘察实际,表明基于未确知聚类法的巷道围岩稳定性预测方法具有较好的实用性和有效性。

指标规范值的未确知测度模型用于地表水水质评价

为减少未确知测度函数的设计数目并使之规范化,提出在对地表水24项常用指标适当设定参照值和对指标值进行规范变换基础上,按地表水指标各级标准规范值的接近程度,将指标归为3类,同类指标设计为相同的测度函数。并将指标规范值的未确知测度模型应用于地表水水质评价。结果表明:与传统的未确知测度模型相比较,该模型不仅极大地减少了未确知测度函数的设计数目,使评价过程简单、实用,而且测度函数设计更加规范化。