Hydromechanical characterization of gas transport amidst uncertainty for underground nuclear explosion detection

Given the challenge of definitively discriminating between chemical and nuclear explosions using seismic methods alone,surface detection of signature noble gas radioisotopes is considered a positive identification of underground nuclear explosions(UNEs).However,the migration of signature radionuclide gases between the nuclear cavity and surface is not well understood because complex processes are involved,including the generation of complex fracture networks,reactivation of natural fractures and faults,and thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical(THMC)coupling of radionuclide gas transport in the subsurface.In this study,we provide an experimental investigation of hydro-mechanical(HM)coupling among gas flow,stress states,rock deformation,and rock damage using a unique multi-physics triaxial direct shear rock testing system.The testing system also features redundant gas pressure and flow rate measurements,well suited for parameter uncertainty quantification.Using porous tuff and tight granite samples that are relevant to historic UNE tests,we measured the Biot effective stress coefficient,rock matrix gas permeability,and fracture gas permeability at a range of pore pressure and stress conditions.The Biot effective stress coefficient varies from 0.69 to 1 for the tuff,whose porosity averages 35.3%±0.7%,while this coefficient varies from 0.51 to 0.78 for the tight granite(porosity<1%,perhaps an underestimate).Matrix gas permeability is strongly correlated to effective stress for the granite,but not for the porous tuff.Our experiments reveal the following key engineering implications on transport of radionuclide gases post a UNE event:(1)The porous tuff shows apparent fracture dilation or compression upon stress changes,which does not necessarily change the gas permeability;(2)The granite fracture permeability shows strong stress sensitivity and is positively related to shear displacement;and(3)Hydromechanical coupling among stress states,rock damage,and gas flow appears to be stronger in tight granite than in porous tuff.

A Bayesian multi-model inference methodology for imprecise momentindependent global sensitivity analysis of rock structures

Traditional global sensitivity analysis(GSA)neglects the epistemic uncertainties associated with the probabilistic characteristics(i.e.type of distribution type and its parameters)of input rock properties emanating due to the small size of datasets while mapping the relative importance of properties to the model response.This paper proposes an augmented Bayesian multi-model inference(BMMI)coupled with GSA methodology(BMMI-GSA)to address this issue by estimating the imprecision in the momentindependent sensitivity indices of rock structures arising from the small size of input data.The methodology employs BMMI to quantify the epistemic uncertainties associated with model type and parameters of input properties.The estimated uncertainties are propagated in estimating imprecision in moment-independent Borgonovo’s indices by employing a reweighting approach on candidate probabilistic models.The proposed methodology is showcased for a rock slope prone to stress-controlled failure in the Himalayan region of India.The proposed methodology was superior to the conventional GSA(neglects all epistemic uncertainties)and Bayesian coupled GSA(B-GSA)(neglects model uncertainty)due to its capability to incorporate the uncertainties in both model type and parameters of properties.Imprecise Borgonovo’s indices estimated via proposed methodology provide the confidence intervals of the sensitivity indices instead of their fixed-point estimates,which makes the user more informed in the data collection efforts.Analyses performed with the varying sample sizes suggested that the uncertainties in sensitivity indices reduce significantly with the increasing sample sizes.The accurate importance ranking of properties was only possible via samples of large sizes.Further,the impact of the prior knowledge in terms of prior ranges and distributions was significant;hence,any related assumption should be made carefully.

基于改进Kinky Inference的输出调节自适应无拖曳控制

在空间引力波探测任务中,航天器内部检验质量因存在载荷硬件噪声、环境噪声及微推力器耦合噪声等复杂干扰,影响其无拖曳控制精度,难以实现超净、超稳控制需求。提出一种基于惰性适配Lipschitz常数Kinky Inference (LACKI)的航天器自适应无拖曳控制方法,运用监督学习规则实现先验知识不足、样本数据存在损坏时外界干扰的逼近和抑制,及基于输出调节的模型参考自适应控制(MRAC)方法实现检验质量精确的无拖曳控制。数值仿真验证了无拖曳控制中敏感轴平动和转动自由度的状态响应性能及LACKI规则针对外界干扰的估计效果,通过与常规线性控制方法的对比,验证了所提方法对于提高无拖曳控制精度的有效性。

Plasma current tomography for HL-2A based on Bayesian inference

An accurate plasma current profile has irreplaceable value for the steady-state operation of the plasma.In this study,plasma current tomography based on Bayesian inference is applied to an HL-2A device and used to reconstruct the plasma current profile.Two different Bayesian probability priors are tried,namely the Conditional Auto Regressive(CAR)prior and the Advanced Squared Exponential(ASE)kernel prior.Compared to the CAR prior,the ASE kernel prior adopts nonstationary hyperparameters and introduces the current profile of the reference discharge into the hyperparameters,which can make the shape of the current profile more flexible in space.The results indicate that the ASE prior couples more information,reduces the probability of unreasonable solutions,and achieves higher reconstruction accuracy.

Variational Neural Inference Enhanced Text Semantic Communication System

Recently,deep learning-based semantic communication has garnered widespread attention,with numerous systems designed for transmitting diverse data sources,including text,image,and speech,etc.While efforts have been directed toward improving system performance,many studies have concentrated on enhancing the structure of the encoder and decoder.However,this often overlooks the resulting increase in model complexity,imposing additional storage and computational burdens on smart devices.Furthermore,existing work tends to prioritize explicit semantics,neglecting the potential of implicit semantics.This paper aims to easily and effectively enhance the receiver's decoding capability without modifying the encoder and decoder structures.We propose a novel semantic communication system with variational neural inference for text transmission.Specifically,we introduce a simple but effective variational neural inferer at the receiver to infer the latent semantic information within the received text.This information is then utilized to assist in the decoding process.The simulation results show a significant enhancement in system performance and improved robustness.

Performance of physical-informed neural network (PINN) for the key parameter inference in Langmuir turbulence parameterization scheme

The Stokes production coefficient(E_(6))constitutes a critical parameter within the Mellor-Yamada type(MY-type)Langmuir turbulence(LT)parameterization schemes,significantly affecting the simulation of turbulent kinetic energy,turbulent length scale,and vertical diffusivity coefficient for turbulent kinetic energy in the upper ocean.However,the accurate determination of its value remains a pressing scientific challenge.This study adopted an innovative approach by leveraging deep learning technology to address this challenge of inferring the E_(6).Through the integration of the information of the turbulent length scale equation into a physical-informed neural network(PINN),we achieved an accurate and physically meaningful inference of E_(6).Multiple cases were examined to assess the feasibility of PINN in this task,revealing that under optimal settings,the average mean squared error of the E_(6) inference was only 0.01,attesting to the effectiveness of PINN.The optimal hyperparameter combination was identified using the Tanh activation function,along with a spatiotemporal sampling interval of 1 s and 0.1 m.This resulted in a substantial reduction in the average bias of the E_(6) inference,ranging from O(10^(1))to O(10^(2))times compared with other combinations.This study underscores the potential application of PINN in intricate marine environments,offering a novel and efficient method for optimizing MY-type LT parameterization schemes.

Local saliency consistency-based label inference for weakly supervised salient object detection using scribble annotations

Recently,weak supervision has received growing attention in the field of salient object detection due to the convenience of labelling.However,there is a large performance gap between weakly supervised and fully supervised salient object detectors because the scribble annotation can only provide very limited foreground/background information.Therefore,an intuitive idea is to infer annotations that cover more complete object and background regions for training.To this end,a label inference strategy is proposed based on the assumption that pixels with similar colours and close positions should have consistent labels.Specifically,k-means clustering algorithm was first performed on both colours and coordinates of original annotations,and then assigned the same labels to points having similar colours with colour cluster centres and near coordinate cluster centres.Next,the same annotations for pixels with similar colours within each kernel neighbourhood was set further.Extensive experiments on six benchmarks demonstrate that our method can significantly improve the performance and achieve the state-of-the-art results.

Complexity Considerations in the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle

This work introduces a modification to the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle (HUP) by incorporating quantum complexity, including potential nonlinear effects. Our theoretical framework extends the traditional HUP to consider the complexity of quantum states, offering a more nuanced understanding of measurement precision. By adding a complexity term to the uncertainty relation, we explore nonlinear modifications such as polynomial, exponential, and logarithmic functions. Rigorous mathematical derivations demonstrate the consistency of the modified principle with classical quantum mechanics and quantum information theory. We investigate the implications of this modified HUP for various aspects of quantum mechanics, including quantum metrology, quantum algorithms, quantum error correction, and quantum chaos. Additionally, we propose experimental protocols to test the validity of the modified HUP, evaluating their feasibility with current and near-term quantum technologies. This work highlights the importance of quantum complexity in quantum mechanics and provides a refined perspective on the interplay between complexity, entanglement, and uncertainty in quantum systems. The modified HUP has the potential to stimulate interdisciplinary research at the intersection of quantum physics, information theory, and complexity theory, with significant implications for the development of quantum technologies and the understanding of the quantum-to-classical transition.

Multi-modal knowledge graph inference via media convergence and logic rule

Media convergence works by processing information from different modalities and applying them to different domains.It is difficult for the conventional knowledge graph to utilise multi-media features because the introduction of a large amount of information from other modalities reduces the effectiveness of representation learning and makes knowledge graph inference less effective.To address the issue,an inference method based on Media Convergence and Rule-guided Joint Inference model(MCRJI)has been pro-posed.The authors not only converge multi-media features of entities but also introduce logic rules to improve the accuracy and interpretability of link prediction.First,a multi-headed self-attention approach is used to obtain the attention of different media features of entities during semantic synthesis.Second,logic rules of different lengths are mined from knowledge graph to learn new entity representations.Finally,knowledge graph inference is performed based on representing entities that converge multi-media features.Numerous experimental results show that MCRJI outperforms other advanced baselines in using multi-media features and knowledge graph inference,demonstrating that MCRJI provides an excellent approach for knowledge graph inference with converged multi-media features.

A dynamic algorithm for trust inference based on double DQN in the internet of things

The development of the Internet of Things(IoT)has brought great convenience to people.However,some information security problems such as privacy leakage are caused by communicating with risky users.It is a challenge to choose reliable users with which to interact in the IoT.Therefore,trust plays a crucial role in the IoT because trust may avoid some risks.Agents usually choose reliable users with high trust to maximize their own interests based on reinforcement learning.However,trust propagation is time-consuming,and trust changes with the interaction process in social networks.To track the dynamic changes in trust values,a dynamic trust inference algorithm named Dynamic Double DQN Trust(Dy-DDQNTrust)is proposed to predict the indirect trust values of two users without direct contact with each other.The proposed algorithm simulates the interactions among users by double DQN.Firstly,CurrentNet and TargetNet networks are used to select users for interaction.The users with high trust are chosen to interact in future iterations.Secondly,the trust value is updated dynamically until a reliable trust path is found according to the result of the interaction.Finally,the trust value between indirect users is inferred by aggregating the opinions from multiple users through a Modified Collaborative Filtering Averagebased Similarity(SMCFAvg)aggregation strategy.Experiments are carried out on the FilmTrust and the Epinions datasets.Compared with TidalTrust,MoleTrust,DDQNTrust,DyTrust and Dynamic Weighted Heuristic trust path Search algorithm(DWHS),our dynamic trust inference algorithm has higher prediction accuracy and better scalability.

Review on uncertainty analysis and information fusion diagnosis of aircraft control system

In the aircraft control system,sensor networks are used to sample the attitude and environmental data.As a result of the external and internal factors(e.g.,environmental and task complexity,inaccurate sensing and complex structure),the aircraft control system contains several uncertainties,such as imprecision,incompleteness,redundancy and randomness.The information fusion technology is usually used to solve the uncertainty issue,thus improving the sampled data reliability,which can further effectively increase the performance of the fault diagnosis decision-making in the aircraft control system.In this work,we first analyze the uncertainties in the aircraft control system,and also compare different uncertainty quantitative methods.Since the information fusion can eliminate the effects of the uncertainties,it is widely used in the fault diagnosis.Thus,this paper summarizes the recent work in this aera.Furthermore,we analyze the application of information fusion methods in the fault diagnosis of the aircraft control system.Finally,this work identifies existing problems in the use of information fusion for diagnosis and outlines future trends.

A Facial Expression Recognition Method Integrating Uncertainty Estimation and Active Learning

The effectiveness of facial expression recognition(FER)algorithms hinges on the model’s quality and the availability of a substantial amount of labeled expression data.However,labeling large datasets demands significant human,time,and financial resources.Although active learning methods have mitigated the dependency on extensive labeled data,a cold-start problem persists in small to medium-sized expression recognition datasets.This issue arises because the initial labeled data often fails to represent the full spectrum of facial expression characteristics.This paper introduces an active learning approach that integrates uncertainty estimation,aiming to improve the precision of facial expression recognition regardless of dataset scale variations.The method is divided into two primary phases.First,the model undergoes self-supervised pre-training using contrastive learning and uncertainty estimation to bolster its feature extraction capabilities.Second,the model is fine-tuned using the prior knowledge obtained from the pre-training phase to significantly improve recognition accuracy.In the pretraining phase,the model employs contrastive learning to extract fundamental feature representations from the complete unlabeled dataset.These features are then weighted through a self-attention mechanism with rank regularization.Subsequently,data from the low-weighted set is relabeled to further refine the model’s feature extraction ability.The pre-trained model is then utilized in active learning to select and label information-rich samples more efficiently.Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms existing approaches,achieving an improvement in recognition accuracy of 5.09%and 3.82%over the best existing active learning methods,Margin,and Least Confidence methods,respectively,and a 1.61%improvement compared to the conventional segmented active learning method.

Uncertainty quantification of inverse analysis for geomaterials using probabilistic programming

Uncertainty is an essentially challenging for safe construction and long-term stability of geotechnical engineering.The inverse analysis is commonly utilized to determine the physico-mechanical parameters.However,conventional inverse analysis cannot deal with uncertainty in geotechnical and geological systems.In this study,a framework was developed to evaluate and quantify uncertainty in inverse analysis based on the reduced-order model(ROM)and probabilistic programming.The ROM was utilized to capture the mechanical and deformation properties of surrounding rock mass in geomechanical problems.Probabilistic programming was employed to evaluate uncertainty during construction in geotechnical engineering.A circular tunnel was then used to illustrate the proposed framework using analytical and numerical solution.The results show that the geomechanical parameters and associated uncertainty can be properly obtained and the proposed framework can capture the mechanical behaviors under uncertainty.Then,a slope case was employed to demonstrate the performance of the developed framework.The results prove that the proposed framework provides a scientific,feasible,and effective tool to characterize the properties and physical mechanism of geomaterials under uncertainty in geotechnical engineering problems.

Strabismus Detection Based on Uncertainty Estimation and Knowledge Distillation

Strabismus significantly impacts human health as a prevalent ophthalmic condition.Early detection of strabismus is crucial for effective treatment and prognosis.Traditional deep learning models for strabismus detection often fail to estimate prediction certainty precisely.This paper employed a Bayesian deep learning algorithm with knowledge distillation,improving the model's performance and uncertainty estimation ability.Trained on 6807 images from two tertiary hospitals,the model showed significantly higher diagnostic accuracy than traditional deep-learning models.Experimental results revealed that knowledge distillation enhanced the Bayesian model’s performance and uncertainty estimation ability.These findings underscore the combined benefits of using Bayesian deep learning algorithms and knowledge distillation,which improve the reliability and accuracy of strabismus diagnostic predictions.

Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning: A Promising Tool for Trustworthy Fault Diagnosis

Recently,intelligent fault diagnosis based on deep learning has been extensively investigated,exhibiting state-of-the-art performance.However,the deep learning model is often not truly trusted by users due to the lack of interpretability of“black box”,which limits its deployment in safety-critical applications.A trusted fault diagnosis system requires that the faults can be accurately diagnosed in most cases,and the human in the deci-sion-making loop can be found to deal with the abnormal situa-tion when the models fail.In this paper,we explore a simplified method for quantifying both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in deterministic networks,called SAEU.In SAEU,Multivariate Gaussian distribution is employed in the deep architecture to compensate for the shortcomings of complexity and applicability of Bayesian neural networks.Based on the SAEU,we propose a unified uncertainty-aware deep learning framework(UU-DLF)to realize the grand vision of trustworthy fault diagnosis.Moreover,our UU-DLF effectively embodies the idea of“humans in the loop”,which not only allows for manual intervention in abnor-mal situations of diagnostic models,but also makes correspond-ing improvements on existing models based on traceability analy-sis.Finally,two experiments conducted on the gearbox and aero-engine bevel gears are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of UU-DLF and explore the effective reasons behind.

High-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer based on probability density evolution method

This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.

Uncertainty and disturbance estimator-based model predictive control for wet flue gas desulphurization system

Wet flue gas desulphurization technology is widely used in the industrial process for its capability of efficient pollution removal.The desulphurization control system,however,is subjected to complex reaction mechanisms and severe disturbances,which make for it difficult to achieve certain practically relevant control goals including emission and economic performances as well as system robustness.To address these challenges,a new robust control scheme based on uncertainty and disturbance estimator(UDE)and model predictive control(MPC)is proposed in this paper.The UDE is used to estimate and dynamically compensate acting disturbances,whereas MPC is deployed for optimal feedback regulation of the resultant dynamics.By viewing the system nonlinearities and unknown dynamics as disturbances,the proposed control framework allows to locally treat the considered nonlinear plant as a linear one.The obtained simulation results confirm that the utilization of UDE makes the tracking error negligibly small,even in the presence of unmodeled dynamics.In the conducted comparison study,the introduced control scheme outperforms both the standard MPC and PID(proportional-integral-derivative)control strategies in terms of transient performance and robustness.Furthermore,the results reveal that a lowpass-filter time constant has a significant effect on the robustness and the convergence range of the tracking error.

Leveraging Uncertainty for Depth-Aware Hierarchical Text Classification

Hierarchical Text Classification(HTC)aims to match text to hierarchical labels.Existing methods overlook two critical issues:first,some texts cannot be fully matched to leaf node labels and need to be classified to the correct parent node instead of treating leaf nodes as the final classification target.Second,error propagation occurs when a misclassification at a parent node propagates down the hierarchy,ultimately leading to inaccurate predictions at the leaf nodes.To address these limitations,we propose an uncertainty-guided HTC depth-aware model called DepthMatch.Specifically,we design an early stopping strategy with uncertainty to identify incomplete matching between text and labels,classifying them into the corresponding parent node labels.This approach allows us to dynamically determine the classification depth by leveraging evidence to quantify and accumulate uncertainty.Experimental results show that the proposed DepthMatch outperforms recent strong baselines on four commonly used public datasets:WOS(Web of Science),RCV1-V2(Reuters Corpus Volume I),AAPD(Arxiv Academic Paper Dataset),and BGC.Notably,on the BGC dataset,it improvesMicro-F1 andMacro-F1 scores by at least 1.09%and 1.74%,respectively.

Exploring the Implications of the Deformation Parameter and Minimal Length in the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

The breakdown of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle occurs when energies approach the Planck scale, and the corresponding Schwarzschild radius becomes similar to the Compton wavelength. Both of these quantities are approximately equal to the Planck length. In this context, we have introduced a model that utilizes a combination of Schwarzschild’s radius and Compton length to quantify the gravitational length of an object. This model has provided a novel perspective in generalizing the uncertainty principle. Furthermore, it has elucidated the significance of the deforming linear parameter β and its range of variation from unity to its maximum value.

Uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion based on coupled mechanism—motor dynamic model for ammunition delivery system

In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to propose a novel mechanism-motor coupling dynamic modeling method,in which the relationship between mechanism motion and motor rotation is established according to the geometric coordination of the system.The advantages of this include establishing intuitive coupling between the mechanism and motor,facilitating the discussion for the influence of both mechanical and electrical parameters on the mechanism,and enabling dynamic simulation with controller to take the randomness of the electric load into account.Dynamic simulation considering feedback control of ammunition delivery system is carried out,and the feasibility of the model is verified experimentally.Based on probability density evolution theory,we comprehensively discuss the effects of system parameters on mechanism motion from the perspective of uncertainty quantization.Our work can not only provide guidance for engineering design of ammunition delivery mechanism,but also provide theoretical support for modeling and uncertainty quantification research of mechatronics system.