Precipitation plays a crucial role in the water cycle of Northwest China.Obtaining accurate precipitation data is crucial for regional water resource management,hydrological forecasting,flood control and drought relie...Precipitation plays a crucial role in the water cycle of Northwest China.Obtaining accurate precipitation data is crucial for regional water resource management,hydrological forecasting,flood control and drought relief.Currently,the applicability of multi-source precipitation products for long time series in Northwest China has not been thoroughly evaluated.In this study,precipitation data from 183 meteorological stations in Northwest China from 1979 to 2020 were selected to assess the regional applicability of four precipitation products(the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate(ERA5),Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC),Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series Version 4.07(CRU TS v4.07,hereafter CRU),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM))based on the following statistical indicators:correlation coefficient,root mean square error(RMSE),relative bias(RB),mean absolute error(MAE),probability of detection(POD),false alarm ratio(FAR),and equitable threat score(ETS).The results showed that precipitation in Northwest China was generally high in the east and low in the west,and exhibited an increasing trend from 1979 to 2020.Compared with the station observations,ERA5 showed a larger spatial distribution difference than the other products.The overall overestimation of multi-year average precipitation was approximately 200.00 mm and the degree of overestimation increased with increasing precipitation intensity.The multi-year average precipitation of GPCC and CRU was relatively close to that of station observations.The trend of annual precipitation of TRMM was overestimated in high-altitude regions and the eastern part of Lanzhou with more precipitation.At the monthly scale,GPCC performed well but underestimated precipitation in the Tarim Basin(RB=-4.11%),while ERA5 and TRMM exhibited poor accuracy in high-altitude regions.ERA5 had a large bias(RB≥120.00%)in winter months and a strong dispersion(RMSE≥35.00 mm)in summer months.TRMM showed a relatively low correlation with station observations in winter months(correlation coefficients≤0.70).The capture performance analysis showed that ERA5,GPCC,and TRMM had lower POD and ETS values and higher FAR values in Northwest China as the precipitation intensity increased.ERA5 showed a high capture performance for small precipitation events and a slower decreasing trend of POD as the precipitation intensity increased.GPCC had the lowest FAR values.TRMM was statistically ineffective for predicting the occurrence of daily precipitation events.The findings provide a reference for data users to select appropriate datasets in Northwest China and for data developers to develop new precipitation products in the future.展开更多
Based on the high-accuracy data obtained from the GPS measurements carried out in 1992, 1995 and 1996, the isochronous active units with different kinematic property inside the North China area have been distinguished...Based on the high-accuracy data obtained from the GPS measurements carried out in 1992, 1995 and 1996, the isochronous active units with different kinematic property inside the North China area have been distinguished, 4 active units and 1 transition zone with distinct differential movement have been determined. They are Ordos-Yinshan unit, Yanshan unit, Shanxi-Hebei-Shandong (Jin-Ji-Lu) unit, Jiaodong-Liaoning-Shandong (Jiao-Liao-Lu) unit and Yanshan-Hebei (Yan-Ji) transition zone. The relative movements among the neighboring units in this period have been given. ① The compressive movement between Ordos-Yinshan unit and Yanshan unit is not obvious with an amount of 0.4(1.3 mm/a.②in-Ji-Lu unit moves E40(S off the Ordos-Yinshan unit and the magnitude is 4.4(1.0 mm/a. ③elative to the Yan-Ji transition zone of differential movement, Yanshan unit shifts W38(N with a value of 2.4(1.3 mm/a and Jin-Ji-Lu unit moves eastward 35( by south with an amount of 2.3(0.9 mm/a. ④Jin-Ji-Lu unit has a tensional left-lateral movement of 4.7(1.4 mm/a in the direction of E37(S relative to Yanshan unit. ⑤ Some area near Tanlu belt which is located in the southern part of Jin-Ji-Lu block has a southward movement 14( by west with a magnitude of 1.5(1.1 mm/a off the Jin-Ji-Lu unit. ⑥ Relative to Jin-Ji-Lu unit, Jiao-Liao-Lu unit has a trend of clockwise movement with a tensional right-lateral motion at the north end which neighbors Yanshan unit and a compressive motion at the south end. It should be noted that the errors given in the paper are obtained based on the divergence among the displacements of the sites in the unit, rather than the value calculated from the displacement error of the sites. The analyzed results indicate that: ① Shanxi tectonic zone and Yan-Ji transition zone are the major tectonic active zones to show the frame and magnitude of interior relative movement in North China area, and others are the secondary tectonic active zones; ② The complete horizontal deformation in the North China area is not homogeneous nor successive; ③ The kinetic model of North China area might be (mantle dragging plus boundary coupling(.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC3206300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42477529,42371145,42261026)+2 种基金the China-Pakistan Joint Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(046GJHZ2023069MI)the Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Program(22ZD6FA005)the National Cryosphere Desert Data Center(E01Z790201).
文摘Precipitation plays a crucial role in the water cycle of Northwest China.Obtaining accurate precipitation data is crucial for regional water resource management,hydrological forecasting,flood control and drought relief.Currently,the applicability of multi-source precipitation products for long time series in Northwest China has not been thoroughly evaluated.In this study,precipitation data from 183 meteorological stations in Northwest China from 1979 to 2020 were selected to assess the regional applicability of four precipitation products(the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate(ERA5),Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC),Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series Version 4.07(CRU TS v4.07,hereafter CRU),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM))based on the following statistical indicators:correlation coefficient,root mean square error(RMSE),relative bias(RB),mean absolute error(MAE),probability of detection(POD),false alarm ratio(FAR),and equitable threat score(ETS).The results showed that precipitation in Northwest China was generally high in the east and low in the west,and exhibited an increasing trend from 1979 to 2020.Compared with the station observations,ERA5 showed a larger spatial distribution difference than the other products.The overall overestimation of multi-year average precipitation was approximately 200.00 mm and the degree of overestimation increased with increasing precipitation intensity.The multi-year average precipitation of GPCC and CRU was relatively close to that of station observations.The trend of annual precipitation of TRMM was overestimated in high-altitude regions and the eastern part of Lanzhou with more precipitation.At the monthly scale,GPCC performed well but underestimated precipitation in the Tarim Basin(RB=-4.11%),while ERA5 and TRMM exhibited poor accuracy in high-altitude regions.ERA5 had a large bias(RB≥120.00%)in winter months and a strong dispersion(RMSE≥35.00 mm)in summer months.TRMM showed a relatively low correlation with station observations in winter months(correlation coefficients≤0.70).The capture performance analysis showed that ERA5,GPCC,and TRMM had lower POD and ETS values and higher FAR values in Northwest China as the precipitation intensity increased.ERA5 showed a high capture performance for small precipitation events and a slower decreasing trend of POD as the precipitation intensity increased.GPCC had the lowest FAR values.TRMM was statistically ineffective for predicting the occurrence of daily precipitation events.The findings provide a reference for data users to select appropriate datasets in Northwest China and for data developers to develop new precipitation products in the future.
基金The National Key Basic Research Project Mechanism and Prediction of Continental Earthquakes (G1998040700).
文摘Based on the high-accuracy data obtained from the GPS measurements carried out in 1992, 1995 and 1996, the isochronous active units with different kinematic property inside the North China area have been distinguished, 4 active units and 1 transition zone with distinct differential movement have been determined. They are Ordos-Yinshan unit, Yanshan unit, Shanxi-Hebei-Shandong (Jin-Ji-Lu) unit, Jiaodong-Liaoning-Shandong (Jiao-Liao-Lu) unit and Yanshan-Hebei (Yan-Ji) transition zone. The relative movements among the neighboring units in this period have been given. ① The compressive movement between Ordos-Yinshan unit and Yanshan unit is not obvious with an amount of 0.4(1.3 mm/a.②in-Ji-Lu unit moves E40(S off the Ordos-Yinshan unit and the magnitude is 4.4(1.0 mm/a. ③elative to the Yan-Ji transition zone of differential movement, Yanshan unit shifts W38(N with a value of 2.4(1.3 mm/a and Jin-Ji-Lu unit moves eastward 35( by south with an amount of 2.3(0.9 mm/a. ④Jin-Ji-Lu unit has a tensional left-lateral movement of 4.7(1.4 mm/a in the direction of E37(S relative to Yanshan unit. ⑤ Some area near Tanlu belt which is located in the southern part of Jin-Ji-Lu block has a southward movement 14( by west with a magnitude of 1.5(1.1 mm/a off the Jin-Ji-Lu unit. ⑥ Relative to Jin-Ji-Lu unit, Jiao-Liao-Lu unit has a trend of clockwise movement with a tensional right-lateral motion at the north end which neighbors Yanshan unit and a compressive motion at the south end. It should be noted that the errors given in the paper are obtained based on the divergence among the displacements of the sites in the unit, rather than the value calculated from the displacement error of the sites. The analyzed results indicate that: ① Shanxi tectonic zone and Yan-Ji transition zone are the major tectonic active zones to show the frame and magnitude of interior relative movement in North China area, and others are the secondary tectonic active zones; ② The complete horizontal deformation in the North China area is not homogeneous nor successive; ③ The kinetic model of North China area might be (mantle dragging plus boundary coupling(.
