This study tests the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment in fifteen OECD countries by using panel unit root tests which allow for structural breaks. We apply annual unemployment rates covering 1985-2008 periods. We ...This study tests the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment in fifteen OECD countries by using panel unit root tests which allow for structural breaks. We apply annual unemployment rates covering 1985-2008 periods. We test whether unemployment rates are stationary by using second generation tests which allow cross section dependency among series and panel unit root test based on structural break advanced by Carrion-i-Silvestre, Barrio-Castro and Lopez-Bazo （2005）. We find series as a stationary process with structural breaks according to Carrion-i Silvestre et al. （2005） test, while we find series as unit root process with second generation panel unit root test. According to the Carrion-i Silvestre et al. （2005） test, we find the evidence of absence of hysteresis in analyzed countries. As a result, temporary shocks have temporary effects on unemployment instead of permanent effect. Structural factors can affect the natural rate of unemployment and, therefore, unemployment would be stationary around a process that is subject to structural breaks. So, there still exists a unique natural rate of unemployment to which the economy eventually will converge.展开更多
We used panel data analysis to evaluate the relative purchasing power parity(PPP)hypothesis of the ten ASEAN member countries between 1973 and 2015.We incorporated the cross-sectionally augmented panel unit root test ...We used panel data analysis to evaluate the relative purchasing power parity(PPP)hypothesis of the ten ASEAN member countries between 1973 and 2015.We incorporated the cross-sectionally augmented panel unit root test as proposed by Pesaran(J Appl Econ 22:265-312,2007).For panel cointegration analysis,we employed the four error-correction-based Westerlund(Oxf Bull Econ Stat 69:709-748,2007)panel cointegration tests.The Westerlund(Oxf Bull Econ Stat 69:709-748,2007)tests are general enough to permit a large degree of heterogeneity,both in the long-run cointegrating relationship and in the short-run dynamics,and dependence within as well as across the cross-sectional units.To check the robustness of the results,we further estimated the cointegration test excluding Indonesia and Brunei.The findings support our initial results.Further,all the results overwhelmingly support the relative PPP hypothesis.Consequently,the monetary authority would be able to implement a self-regulating monetary policy.It would also be able to control the exchange rates.展开更多
文摘This study tests the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment in fifteen OECD countries by using panel unit root tests which allow for structural breaks. We apply annual unemployment rates covering 1985-2008 periods. We test whether unemployment rates are stationary by using second generation tests which allow cross section dependency among series and panel unit root test based on structural break advanced by Carrion-i-Silvestre, Barrio-Castro and Lopez-Bazo （2005）. We find series as a stationary process with structural breaks according to Carrion-i Silvestre et al. （2005） test, while we find series as unit root process with second generation panel unit root test. According to the Carrion-i Silvestre et al. （2005） test, we find the evidence of absence of hysteresis in analyzed countries. As a result, temporary shocks have temporary effects on unemployment instead of permanent effect. Structural factors can affect the natural rate of unemployment and, therefore, unemployment would be stationary around a process that is subject to structural breaks. So, there still exists a unique natural rate of unemployment to which the economy eventually will converge.
基金We do not receive any financial assistance from any agency.All the cost associated with preparing article bear by authors solely.
文摘We used panel data analysis to evaluate the relative purchasing power parity(PPP)hypothesis of the ten ASEAN member countries between 1973 and 2015.We incorporated the cross-sectionally augmented panel unit root test as proposed by Pesaran(J Appl Econ 22:265-312,2007).For panel cointegration analysis,we employed the four error-correction-based Westerlund(Oxf Bull Econ Stat 69:709-748,2007)panel cointegration tests.The Westerlund(Oxf Bull Econ Stat 69:709-748,2007)tests are general enough to permit a large degree of heterogeneity,both in the long-run cointegrating relationship and in the short-run dynamics,and dependence within as well as across the cross-sectional units.To check the robustness of the results,we further estimated the cointegration test excluding Indonesia and Brunei.The findings support our initial results.Further,all the results overwhelmingly support the relative PPP hypothesis.Consequently,the monetary authority would be able to implement a self-regulating monetary policy.It would also be able to control the exchange rates.
