Response of vegetation variation to climate change and human activities in the Shiyang River Basin of China during 2001-2022

Understanding the response of vegetation variation to climate change and human activities is critical for addressing future conflicts between humans and the environment,and maintaining ecosystem stability.Here,we aimed to identify the determining factors of vegetation variation and explore the sensitivity of vegetation to temperature(SVT)and the sensitivity of vegetation to precipitation(SVP)in the Shiyang River Basin(SYRB)of China during 2001-2022.The climate data from climatic research unit(CRU),vegetation index data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS),and land use data from Landsat images were used to analyze the spatial-temporal changes in vegetation indices,climate,and land use in the SYRB and its sub-basins(i.e.,upstream,midstream,and downstream basins)during 2001-2022.Linear regression analysis and correlation analysis were used to explore the SVT and SVP,revealing the driving factors of vegetation variation.Significant increasing trends(P<0.05)were detected for the enhanced vegetation index(EVI)and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)in the SYRB during 2001-2022,with most regions(84%)experiencing significant variation in vegetation,and land use change was determined as the dominant factor of vegetation variation.Non-significant decreasing trends were detected in the SVT and SVP of the SYRB during 2001-2022.There were spatial differences in vegetation variation,SVT,and SVP.Although NDVI and EVI exhibited increasing trends in the upstream,midstream,and downstream basins,the change slope in the downstream basin was lower than those in the upstream and midstream basins,the SVT in the upstream basin was higher than those in the midstream and downstream basins,and the SVP in the downstream basin was lower than those in the upstream and midstream basins.Temperature and precipitation changes controlled vegetation variation in the upstream and midstream basins while human activities(land use change)dominated vegetation variation in the downstream basin.We concluded that there is a spatial heterogeneity in the response of vegetation variation to climate change and human activities across different sub-basins of the SYRB.These findings can enhance our understanding of the relationship among vegetation variation,climate change,and human activities,and provide a reference for addressing future conflicts between humans and the environment in the arid inland river basins.

Rosgen stream classification and fluvial processes of the Shiyang River,China

The Shiyang River is an important ecological pillar in northwest China,sustaining Minqin oasis and its surrounding society.However,the basin has long been plagued by water scarcity and ecological fragility.Although the river classification is critical for understanding the complexity,diversity,and ecological functions of rivers,and the foundation of river management and watershed ecological restoration,it has not received adequate attention in this region.To obtain a deeper and comprehensive understanding of the Shiyang River,this study utilizes the Rosgen stream classification system to assess the river morphology,geomorphic features,and hydrologic processes.The results showed that seven first-level and fourteen second-level river types can be identified along 53 river sections of the Shiyang River.Further comparison analysis on the hydrologic parameters for each river type demonstrated a strong positive correlation between discharge and all river parameters.As discharge increased,channels with moderate to high width/depth ratios experienced significant lateral adjustments.A consistent channel gradient,coupled with higher discharge,facilitated the transition from single to multiple channels.Braiding tendencies were more pronounced in rivers where riverbeds were wider and shallower with higher stream power.Additionally,water-flow shear stress decreased with the increase in the width/depth ratio.This study offered critical insights into the Shiyang River’s forms and processes and for the river management and ecological restoration practices.

Ecological Network Resilience of Shiyang River Basin: An Arid Inland Watershed of Northwest China

Due to the uncertainties posed by climate change,resilience has become an increasingly important variable for evaluating regional ecosystem stability.The assessment of Ecological Network Resilience(ENR)is crucial for establishing mitigation strategies and sustainable socioeconomic development in arid regions.Shiyang River Basin is an arid watershed in Northwest China with complex characteristics,its ENR and spatial differentiation characteristics in 2020 were investigated in this work based on the Complex Adaptive System(CAS)theory.The results indicated that the mean Ecological Network Resilience Index(ENRI)value for the Shiyang River Basin was 0.390 in 2020,and the mean values in the southern mountainous,middle oasis,and northern desert regions of the basin were 0.598,0.461,and 0.237,respectively,demonstrating evident spatial differences.Additionally,the ENR of the basin exhibited distinct distribution characteristics across different dimension,whereas the trend of the integrated ENR of the basin was consistent with that of elemental,structural,and functional resilience,indicating the constructed three-region ENR model based on the logical relationship of element-structure-function was suitable for evaluation of the ENR in arid inland river watersheds.Furthermore,strategies for enhancing regional ENR were proposed from the perspective of adapting to climate change.

Land use and cover change and influencing factor analysis in the Shiyang River Basin,China

Land use and cover change(LUCC)is the most direct manifestation of the interaction between anthropological activities and the natural environment on Earth's surface,with significant impacts on the environment and social economy.Rapid economic development and climate change have resulted in significant changes in land use and cover.The Shiyang River Basin,located in the eastern part of the Hexi Corridor in China,has undergone significant climate change and LUCC over the past few decades.In this study,we used the random forest classification to obtain the land use and cover datasets of the Shiyang River Basin in 1991,1995,2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020 based on Landsat images.We validated the land use and cover data in 2015 from the random forest classification results(this study),the high-resolution dataset of annual global land cover from 2000 to 2015(AGLC-2000-2015),the global 30 m land cover classification with a fine classification system(GLC_FCS30),and the first Landsat-derived annual China Land Cover Dataset(CLCD)against ground-truth classification results to evaluate the accuracy of the classification results in this study.Furthermore,we explored and compared the spatiotemporal patterns of LUCC in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Shiyang River Basin over the past 30 years,and employed the random forest importance ranking method to analyze the influencing factors of LUCC based on natural(evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and surface soil moisture)and anthropogenic(nighttime light,gross domestic product(GDP),and population)factors.The results indicated that the random forest classification results for land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin in 2015 outperformed the AGLC-2000-2015,GLC_FCS30,and CLCD datasets in both overall and partial validations.Moreover,the classification results in this study exhibited a high level of agreement with the ground truth features.From 1991 to 2020,the area of bare land exhibited a decreasing trend,with changes primarily occurring in the middle and lower reaches of the basin.The area of grassland initially decreased and then increased,with changes occurring mainly in the upper and middle reaches of the basin.In contrast,the area of cropland initially increased and then decreased,with changes occurring in the middle and lower reaches.The LUCC was influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors.Climatic factors and population contributed significantly to LUCC,and the importance values of evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and population were 22.12%,32.41%,21.89%,and 19.65%,respectively.Moreover,policy interventions also played an important role.Land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin exhibited fluctuating changes over the past 30 years,with the ecological environment improving in the last 10 years.This suggests that governance efforts in the study area have had some effects,and the government can continue to move in this direction in the future.The findings can provide crucial insights for related research and regional sustainable development in the Shiyang River Basin and other similar arid and semi-arid areas.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Typical Ecosystem Services and Their Spatial Responses to Driving Factors in Ecologically Fragile Areas in Upper Yellow River,China

The identification of dominant driving factors for different ecosystem services(ESs)is crucial for ecological conservation and sustainable development.However,the spatial heterogeneity of the dominant driving factors affecting various ESs has not been adequately elucidated,particularly in ecologically fragile regions.This study employed the integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs(InVEST)model to evaluate four ESs,namely,water yield(WY),soil conservation(SC),habitat quality(HQ),and carbon storage(CS),and then to identify the dominant driving factors of spatiotemporal differentiation of ES and further to characterize the spatial heterogeneity characteristics of the dominant driving factors in the eco-fragile areas of the upper Yellow River,China from 2000 to 2020.The results demonstrated that WY exhibited northeast-high and northwest-low patterns in the upper Yellow River region,while high values of SC and CS were distributed in central forested areas and a high value of HQ was distributed in vast grassland areas.The CS,WY,and SC exhibited decreasing trends over time.The most critical factors affecting WY,SC,HQ,and CS were the actual evapotranspiration,precipitation,slope,and normalized difference vegetation index,respectively.In addition,the effects of different factors on various ESs exhibited spatial heterogeneity.These results could provide spatial decision support for eco-protection and rehabilitation in ecologically fragile areas.

Effects of grassland vegetation roots on soil infiltration rate in Xiazangtan super large scale landslide distribution area in the upper reaches of the Yellow River,China

In order to study the infiltration characteristics of grassland soil in the super large scale landslides distribution area in the upper reaches of the Yellow River,this study selected the Xiazangtan super large scale distribution area in Jianzha County as the study area.Through experiments and numerical simulations,plant roots characteristics,soil physical properties and infiltration characteristics of naturally grazed grassland and enclosed grassland with different slope directions were compared and analyzed,and the influence of rainfall on seepage field and stability of the two grassland slopes were discussed.The results show that the highest soil moisture infiltration capacity(FIR)is found on the shady slope of the enclosed grassland(2.25),followed by the sunny slope of the enclosed grassland(1.23)and the shady slope of the naturally grazed grassland(-0.87).Correlation analysis show that soil water content,root dry weight density,total soil porosity,number of forks and root length are positively correlated with infiltration rate(P<0.05),whereas soil dry density is negatively correlated with infiltration rate(P<0.05).The results of stepwise regression analyses show that soil water content,total soil porosity,root length and number of forks are the main factors affecting soil infiltration capacity.And the ability of roots to increase soil infiltration by improving soil properties is higher than the effect of roots itself.After 60 min of simulated rainfall,the safety factors of the shady slopes of naturally grazed grassland and enclosed grassland are reduced by 29.56%and 19.63%,respectively,comparing to those before rainfall.Therefore,in this study,the roots play a crucial role in regulating soil infiltration and enhance slope stability by increasing soil water content,soil total porosity and shear strength while decreasing soil dry density.The results of this study provide theoretical evidence and practical guidance for the effective prevention and control of secondary geological disasters such as soil erosion and shallow landslide on the slope of river banks in the study area by using plant ecological measures.

Pollen Assemblage Features of Modern Water Samples from the Shiyang River Drainage, Arid Region of China

Pollen analysis of 30 modem water samples from the Shivang River, an internal river system located between the Tengger and Badain Jaran deserts, Northwest China was carried out to examine the river's capacity to carry pollen and spores, and to assess the contribution of the water-borne pollen to pollen assemblages in lake sediments at the end of the river system. Results indicate the pollen assemblages in water samples consist of both local and upland pollen. Percentages of upland pollen reach 30% - 60%, and pollen assemblages in water samples do not indicate the nature of local vegetation at the sampling sites. Fluvial currents have the capacity to transport large quantities of pollen long distances, and the contribution of this fluvial transported pollen is relatively high, For example, percentages of Picea Dietr. pollen in water samples at sampling sites 130 km and 145 km away from Picea forests reach 16.5% and 7.7%, respectively. Fluvial pollen transport occurs primarily during flood periods, and pollen concentrations from the flood samples are 17.1 - 12.5 times those from normal fluvial flow. Reservoirs affect pollen transportation since pollen is deposited at reservoir inlets and pollen concentrations are much reduced at reservoir outlets. Human activity can thus change natural features of pollen transportation and deposition. The main factors influencing pollen concentrations and assemblages are sampling time, sampling location, and rainfall intensity.

Assessment of land use change and potential eco-service value in the upper reaches of Minjiang River,China

The remote sensing （RS） and geographical information system （GIS） technologies were adopted and a mathematic method was developed to evaluate the changes of ecosystem services in the upper reaches of Minjiang River-valley for providing advices to manage the ecosystem. The results showed that the land use change mainly occurred on forest, farmland and grassland. From 1986 to 1994, the area of farmland increased by 477% （60801 hm^2）, while the area of forest decreased by 4.97% （89012.17 hm^2）. From 1986 to 2000, the eco-service value of forest was degressive but that of farmland increased greatly as the increasing of planting area, while the total eco-service value decreased by 771.11×10^8 yuan RMB due to the rapid increase of population in this region. The driving force of eco-service change was also discussed in the paper. The nation policy of Natural Forest Protection Project has taken effect in preventing the decline of eco-services.

Change Characteristics of Climate and Main Agricultural Meteorological Disasters in Shiyang River Basin

Based on 35 a meteorological data and main crops planting data in Shiyang River basin meteorological station,the agricultural climate change,agricultural production,hydrology change and the influences on the crops layout,planting in the basin were discussed.The results showed that the linear inclined rates of ≥0 ℃,10 ℃ accumulated temperature increase in the north-central part were bigger than in the south,and the heat resources increased evidently.The annual precipitation increased in the linear inclined rate which was 4.719 mm/10 a,and the annual runoff decreased in 0.274×109 m3/10 a velocity.The climate productivity increased in 134.62 kg/(hm2·10 a) velocity.In late spring and early summer,the regional drought increased evidently,and the frostless period prolonged.The sand storm decreased evidently.The gale in the south increased and decreased in the north-central part.The agricultural climate change made that the spring wheat planting zone advanced to the high-altitude area.The seeding date advanced,and the growth period shortened.It didn't favor for the yield formation.However,it was favorable to improve the yield and quality of thermophilous crops such as the corn,cotton and wine grape and so on.

Exploring Regional Ecological Cultures in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River in the Ming and Qing Dynasties from the Perspective of "Top Eight Views"

By studying typical "Top Eight Views" in cities like Xining,Lanzhou and Yinchuan in the upper reaches of the Yellow River,mountain and water landscapes in the study area were analyzed in terms of natural ecology;bridges,canals,ferries,pavilions,mansions,towers,temples,historical sites,production and living landscapes were analyzed in terms of humanistic ecology.On this basis,"Top Eight Views" in the upper reaches of the Yellow River were compared and the following conclusions obtained:mountain landscapes were distributed in the whole region,waterscapes unevenly valued in different cities,bridges,canals and ferries mostly located in Ningxia,temples commonly found in all cities,garden arts introduced into cities,traditional cultures carried forward by historical relics.Then the relationship between "Top Eight Views" and regional eco-cultures was analyzed,and it was proposed that humanistic and cultural connotations of these "Top Eight Views" contributed a lot to beautifying urban environment,satisfying needs of the locals' spiritual life,carrying forward local history and culture,enriching urban cultural connotations,expanding living spaces of local residents and improving integrated functions of cities."Top Eight Views" culture complied with the construction gist of urban ecological cultures,and was of great referential value for the construction of urban ecological cultures in the upper reaches of the Yellow River,and also the healthy,scientific and sustainable development of local cities.

Channel change at Toudaoguai Station and its responses to the operation of upstream reservoirs in the upper Yellow River

The application of dams built upstream will change the input conditions, including water and sediment, of downstream fluvial system, and destroy previous dynamic quasi-equilibrium reached by channel streamflow, so indispensable adjustments are necessary for downstream channel to adapt to the new water and sediment supply, leading the fluvial system to restore its previous equilibrium or reach a new equilibrium. Using about 50-year-long hydrological, sedimentary and cross-sectional data, temporal response processes of Toudaoguai cross-section located in the upper Yellow River to the operation of reservoirs built upstream are analyzed. The results show that the Toudaoguai cross-section change was influenced strongly by upstream reservoir operation and downstream channel bed armoring thereafter occurred gradually and extended to the reach below Sanhuhekou gauging station. Besides, median diameter of suspended sediment load experienced a three-stage change that is characterized by an increase at first, then a decrease and an increase again finally, which reflects the process of channel bed armoring that began at Qingtongxia reservoir and then gradually developed downstream to the reach below Sanhuhekou cross-section. Since the joint operation strategy of Longyangxia, Liujiaxia and Qingtongxia reservoirs was introduced in 1986, the three-stage change trend has become less evident than that in the time period between 1969 and 1986 when only Qingtongxia and Liujiaxia reservoirs were put into operation alone. In addition, since 1987, the extent of lateral migration and thalweg elevation change at Toudaoguai cross-section has reduced dramatically, cross-sectional profile and location tended to be stable, which is beneficial to the normal living for local people.

Evaluation of oasis ecosystem risk by reliability theory in an arid area: A case study in the Shiyang River Basin, China

Ecosystem risk is a new concept in understanding environmental problems. It is important to study and develop quantitative methods for regional ecosystem risk analysis. In this study, some new indicators and methods for measuring oasis ecosystem risk were established using reliability theory. These indicators are linked to water resource, which is the key restricting factor in arid area oasis ecosystems. They have clear meanings and can also be compared in different arid area oases. A case study in the Liangzhou oasis of the Shiyang River Basin in China shows how to calculate these ecosystem risk indicators. The results of the case study are as follows： the reliability indicator, risk indicator, stability indicator, and integrated loss indicator of the Liangzhou oasis are 0.686, 0.314, 0.743, and 0.301, respectively. This means that the reliability degree of the oasis＇s ecosystem safety is 68.6%; the degree of risk that it is unsafe is 31.4%; the stability degree is 74.3%; and 30.1% of the oasis＇s area is supported by over-exploiting underground water and damaging the lower reaches of the ecosystem. This result can be used as a guide in controlling and managing ecosystem risk in the research area.

Landslide Developmental Characteristics and Response to Climate Change since the Last Glacial in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River, NE Tibetan Plateau

The upper reaches of the Yellow River in northeastern Tibetan Plateau are geohazards areas.The evolution of the Yellow River,chronology of some landslides,and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of super large scale and giant landslides within the region are summarized using paleoclimate evidence,and the relationship between the intensive landslide period and climatic changes since the Last Glacial period is analyzed.It is concluded that （1） Super large scale and giant landslides are distributed widely within the region,particularly in the Qunke-Jianzha basin.（2） The chronological sequence of landslides is established by dating the slip zones of landslides and analyzing the relations between landslides and their overlying or underlying loess formations.Five landslide development periods are determined：53-49 ka BP,33-24 ka BP,10-8 ka BP,5-3.5 ka BP,and the present.（3） These correspond closely to warm and wet periods during the last 100,000 years,i.e.,two weak paleosol development stages of Malan loess deposited during the last Glacial period in the Chinese loess Plateau,L1-4 and L1-2 that belong to the marine oxygen isotope stage 3,the last deglaeial period,the Holocene Optimum,and the modern global warming period.（4） Landslide triggers may be closely linked to warm and wet periods related to rapid climatic transitions.

Phases of Environmental Evolution Indicated by Primary Chemical Elements and Paleontological Records in the Upper Pleistocene-Holocene Series for the Salawusu River Valley,China

Studies of lithology, sedimentary facies and the distribution regularity of SiO2 and Al2O3 contents and Al2O3/SiO2 ratio allow us to divide the Upper Pleistocene-Holocene Series represented by the MUanggouwan section in China＇s Salawnsu River valley into six segments： MGS1, MGS2, MGS3, MGS4, MGS5 and MGS6. The boundary ages for MGS1 （the Dishaogouwan and Dagouwan Formations）, MGS2 （the upper Chengchuan Formation）, MGS3 （the middle Chengchuan Formation）, MGS4 （the lower Chengchuan Formation）, MGS5 （most strata of the Salawusu Formation） and MGS6 （the bottom of the Salawusu Formation and the top of the Lishi Formation） correspond to those of MIS1, MIS2, MIS3, MIS4, MISS and MIS6, respectively, from deep sea sediments or continental glaciers. MGS5 can be subdivided into five subsegments （MGS5a, MGS5b, MGS5c, MGS5d and MGS5e） and the boundary ages of these subsegments correspond to those of MISSa, MISSb, MIS5c, MIS5d and MIS5e, respectively. Based on the paleoenvironment and paleoecology indicated by the primary chemical elements, fossil vertebrates, mollusks and pollen grains, we hypothesize that MGS1, MGS2, MGS3, MGS4, MGS5 and MGS6 and the subsegments of MGS5 match the corresponding stages for oxygen isotopes in the deep sea sediments and continental glaciers, and the substages of MIS5 in terms of climatic characters, further explaining the phenomena that determined the formation of the late Quaternary strata and the paleontology of the Salawusu River valley. These phenomena relate to fluctuations in the global climate （and particularly in the East Asian monsoon） during the glacial and interglacial periods.

Residents’ perspectives and responses to environmental degradation in the upper Dadu River, eastern Tibetan Plateau

Environmental degeneration in the Tibetan Plateau attracts worldwide attention, whereas case studies on how the residents understand and respond to environmental degeneration are scarce. Using a Participatory Rural Appraisal method, this paper investigates how the people in different regions in the upper Dadu River understand and respond to environmental degeneration, based on comparative field surveys in three villages, in which Danzamu village is chosen from villages in the valley region, Kerma village from mountainside region, Rico village from the mountain and plateau region. The results show that： （1） although awakened to environmental degeneration, the residents in different regions have different responses. As agricultural labors have been transferred to the secondary and tertiary industries, population pressure in Danzamu and Kerma villages is mitigated. Residents in Danzamu village actively respond to natural disasters and forest degradation, as their livelihoods never rely on forests and rangelands again. Whereas the residents in Kerma village negatively respond to natural disasters, forest and meadow degradation and the ruin of wildlife resources, as their livelihoods still rely on stockbreeding. Labors in Rico village are hard to transfer to the secondary and tertiary industries, so they have to raise more livestock to make a living. Active measures are just taken to avoid livestock loss, not to avoid forest and meadow degradation and the ruin of wildlife resources. So the most fragile region is the mountain and plateau region and mountainside region, not the valley region. （2） Livelihood strategy is the key factor affecting the residents to respond to population pressure and environmental degeneration. So the framework of sustainable livelihood strategy should be used to explain and intervene in issues of population pressure and environmental degradation in ecotones. （3） Transferring agricultural labors to the secondary and tertiary industries were favorable to improving people＇s livelihood. It is necessary to reduce the education fees to speed up the pace of labors transferring in the mountainside region. In the mountain and plateau region, preferable ways also include the development of towns, highways, education equipment and other establishments.

GIS-Based Risk Assessment of Debris Flow Disasters in the Upper Reach of Yangtze River

This paper discussed theory and methodologies of debris-flow risk assessment and established an implementation process according to indicators of debris-flow hazard degree, vulnerability, risk degree, etc. Among these methodologies, historical and potential hazard degree was comprehensively considered into hazard assessment and hazard index was presented to indicate the debris-flow hazard degree. Regarding debris-flow vulnerability assessment, its statistical data and calculating procedure were based on the hazard-degree regionalization instead of administrative divisions, which improved the assessing scientificity and precision. These quantitative methodologies integrated with Geography Information System （GIS） were applied to the risk assessment of debris flows in the upper reach of Yangtze River. Its results were in substantial agreement on investigation data and the actual distribution of debris flows, which showed that these principles and methodologies were reasonable and feasible and can provide basis or reference for debris-flow risk assessment and disaster management.

Runoff of the upper Yellow River above Tangnag: characteristics, evolution and changing trends

Runoff and its evolution, based on hydrometeorological data from surface measurement stations, are analyzed for the upper reaches of the Yellow River above Tangnag. Some mathematical statistical models, for example, Period Extrapolation-Gradual Regression Model, Grey Topology Forecast Model and Box-Jinkins Model, are applied in predicting changing trends on the runoff. The analysis indicates that the runoff volume in the upper Yellow River above Tangnag is ending a period of extended minimum flows. Increasing runoff is expected in the coming years.

Two Village Ecosystems in the Upper Minjiang River, China: A Comparison of Emergy Flow

By using the concept of emergy and method of emergy analysis, this paper has studied two mountain settlement (village) ecosystems in two aspects: input and output of energy in the agro-systems and the use of fuel energy. The result reveals that the settlement agro-system in the valley of Minjiang River is better in both structure and function than that at the so-called half-high mountain. The former one is higher than the latter one regarding such indices as emergy yield ratio, labor productivity of emergy and emergy sustainable index, but lower than the latter one regarding environmental loading ratio. In terms of fuel emergy, the settlement in the valley enjoys more diversified sources and is less depending on bio-energy while the settlement at the half-high mountain has only one source (i. e. fuel wood) , much depending on bio-energy, may exert a greater pressure on environment.

The relationship between ENSO cycle and high and low-flow in the upper Yellow River

Firstly, the hydrological and meteorological features of the upper reaches of the Yellow River above Tangnag are analyzed based on observation data, and effects of EI Nino and La Ni na events on the high and low flow in the upper Yellow River are discussed. The results show El Nino and La Nina events possess consanguineous relationship wi th runoff in the upper Yellow River. As a whole, the probability of low fl ow occurrence in the upper Yellow River is relatively great along wit h the occurrence of El Nino event. Moreover, the flood in the upper Yellow River occurs frequently with the occurrence of La Nina event. Besides, the results also show dissimilarity of El Nino event occurri ng time exerts greater impact on high flow and low flow in the uppe r Yellow River, that is, the probability of drought will be greater in the sam e year if El Nino event occurs in spring, the high-flow may happen in this y ear if El Nino occurs in summer or autumn; the longer the continuous period of El Nino is, the lower the runoff in the upper Yellow River is.

Glacial Runoff Likely Reached Peak in the Mountainous Areas of the Shiyang River Basin,China

Glacier runoff in mountain areas of the Shiyang River Basin(SRB), Qilian Mountain, western China is important for the river and water supply downstream. Small glaciers with area of less than 1km2 are dominant(87%) in the SRB. A modified monthly degree-day model was applied to quantify the glacier mass balance, area, and changes in glacier runoff in the SRB during 1961–2050. The comparison between the simulated and observed snow line altitude, annual glacier runoff, and mass balance from1961 to 2008 suggests that the degree-day model may be used to analyze the long-term change of glacier mass balance and runoff in the SRB. The glacier accumulation shows a significant(p<0.01) decreasing trend of-0.830 mm a-1. The mass balance also shows a significant(p<0.01) decreasing trend of-5.521 mm a-1. The glacier total runoff has significantly(p<0.05)increased by 0.079 × 105 m3 from 1961 to 2008. The monthly precipitation and air temperature are projected to significant(p<0.005) increase during2015 to 2050 under three different scenarios. The ablation is projected to significant(p<0.001) increase,while the accumulation has no significant(p=0.05)trend. The mass balance is projected to decrease, theglacier area is projected to decrease, and the glacier runoff depth is projected to increase. However, the glacier total runoff is projected to decrease. These results indicate that the glacier total runoff over glacier areas observed in 1970 reached its peak in the 2000 s. This will exacerbate the contradiction between water supply and downstream water demands in the SRB.