Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Typical Ecosystem Services and Their Spatial Responses to Driving Factors in Ecologically Fragile Areas in Upper Yellow River,China

The identification of dominant driving factors for different ecosystem services(ESs)is crucial for ecological conservation and sustainable development.However,the spatial heterogeneity of the dominant driving factors affecting various ESs has not been adequately elucidated,particularly in ecologically fragile regions.This study employed the integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs(InVEST)model to evaluate four ESs,namely,water yield(WY),soil conservation(SC),habitat quality(HQ),and carbon storage(CS),and then to identify the dominant driving factors of spatiotemporal differentiation of ES and further to characterize the spatial heterogeneity characteristics of the dominant driving factors in the eco-fragile areas of the upper Yellow River,China from 2000 to 2020.The results demonstrated that WY exhibited northeast-high and northwest-low patterns in the upper Yellow River region,while high values of SC and CS were distributed in central forested areas and a high value of HQ was distributed in vast grassland areas.The CS,WY,and SC exhibited decreasing trends over time.The most critical factors affecting WY,SC,HQ,and CS were the actual evapotranspiration,precipitation,slope,and normalized difference vegetation index,respectively.In addition,the effects of different factors on various ESs exhibited spatial heterogeneity.These results could provide spatial decision support for eco-protection and rehabilitation in ecologically fragile areas.

Exploring Regional Ecological Cultures in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River in the Ming and Qing Dynasties from the Perspective of "Top Eight Views"

By studying typical "Top Eight Views" in cities like Xining,Lanzhou and Yinchuan in the upper reaches of the Yellow River,mountain and water landscapes in the study area were analyzed in terms of natural ecology;bridges,canals,ferries,pavilions,mansions,towers,temples,historical sites,production and living landscapes were analyzed in terms of humanistic ecology.On this basis,"Top Eight Views" in the upper reaches of the Yellow River were compared and the following conclusions obtained:mountain landscapes were distributed in the whole region,waterscapes unevenly valued in different cities,bridges,canals and ferries mostly located in Ningxia,temples commonly found in all cities,garden arts introduced into cities,traditional cultures carried forward by historical relics.Then the relationship between "Top Eight Views" and regional eco-cultures was analyzed,and it was proposed that humanistic and cultural connotations of these "Top Eight Views" contributed a lot to beautifying urban environment,satisfying needs of the locals' spiritual life,carrying forward local history and culture,enriching urban cultural connotations,expanding living spaces of local residents and improving integrated functions of cities."Top Eight Views" culture complied with the construction gist of urban ecological cultures,and was of great referential value for the construction of urban ecological cultures in the upper reaches of the Yellow River,and also the healthy,scientific and sustainable development of local cities.

Channel change at Toudaoguai Station and its responses to the operation of upstream reservoirs in the upper Yellow River

The application of dams built upstream will change the input conditions, including water and sediment, of downstream fluvial system, and destroy previous dynamic quasi-equilibrium reached by channel streamflow, so indispensable adjustments are necessary for downstream channel to adapt to the new water and sediment supply, leading the fluvial system to restore its previous equilibrium or reach a new equilibrium. Using about 50-year-long hydrological, sedimentary and cross-sectional data, temporal response processes of Toudaoguai cross-section located in the upper Yellow River to the operation of reservoirs built upstream are analyzed. The results show that the Toudaoguai cross-section change was influenced strongly by upstream reservoir operation and downstream channel bed armoring thereafter occurred gradually and extended to the reach below Sanhuhekou gauging station. Besides, median diameter of suspended sediment load experienced a three-stage change that is characterized by an increase at first, then a decrease and an increase again finally, which reflects the process of channel bed armoring that began at Qingtongxia reservoir and then gradually developed downstream to the reach below Sanhuhekou cross-section. Since the joint operation strategy of Longyangxia, Liujiaxia and Qingtongxia reservoirs was introduced in 1986, the three-stage change trend has become less evident than that in the time period between 1969 and 1986 when only Qingtongxia and Liujiaxia reservoirs were put into operation alone. In addition, since 1987, the extent of lateral migration and thalweg elevation change at Toudaoguai cross-section has reduced dramatically, cross-sectional profile and location tended to be stable, which is beneficial to the normal living for local people.

Landslide Developmental Characteristics and Response to Climate Change since the Last Glacial in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River, NE Tibetan Plateau

The upper reaches of the Yellow River in northeastern Tibetan Plateau are geohazards areas.The evolution of the Yellow River,chronology of some landslides,and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of super large scale and giant landslides within the region are summarized using paleoclimate evidence,and the relationship between the intensive landslide period and climatic changes since the Last Glacial period is analyzed.It is concluded that （1） Super large scale and giant landslides are distributed widely within the region,particularly in the Qunke-Jianzha basin.（2） The chronological sequence of landslides is established by dating the slip zones of landslides and analyzing the relations between landslides and their overlying or underlying loess formations.Five landslide development periods are determined：53-49 ka BP,33-24 ka BP,10-8 ka BP,5-3.5 ka BP,and the present.（3） These correspond closely to warm and wet periods during the last 100,000 years,i.e.,two weak paleosol development stages of Malan loess deposited during the last Glacial period in the Chinese loess Plateau,L1-4 and L1-2 that belong to the marine oxygen isotope stage 3,the last deglaeial period,the Holocene Optimum,and the modern global warming period.（4） Landslide triggers may be closely linked to warm and wet periods related to rapid climatic transitions.

Runoff of the upper Yellow River above Tangnag: characteristics, evolution and changing trends

Runoff and its evolution, based on hydrometeorological data from surface measurement stations, are analyzed for the upper reaches of the Yellow River above Tangnag. Some mathematical statistical models, for example, Period Extrapolation-Gradual Regression Model, Grey Topology Forecast Model and Box-Jinkins Model, are applied in predicting changing trends on the runoff. The analysis indicates that the runoff volume in the upper Yellow River above Tangnag is ending a period of extended minimum flows. Increasing runoff is expected in the coming years.

Optically Stimulated Luminescence(OSL) Chronology of the Dehenglong Landslide from Longyang Gorge to Liujia Gorge along Upper Yellow River, China

Giant landslides are common along the upper Yellow River from Longyang Gorge to Liujia Gorge, and some of them even blocked and dammed the upper Yellow River. Chronology is inevitable in studying the mechanism of giant landslides. Controversy exists about the chronology of those giant landslides, and some have not yet dated. The Dehenglong landslide is the largest one among them. In this study, OSL samples were collected from lacustrine silty sediments and loess directly overlying the landslide sediments, as well as fault sediments related to the landslide. This landslide yielded an age of 89 ±8 ka, which is identical with the fault age of 73 ±5 ka at two sigma errors. The agreement of a topographic analysis and the absolute age of landslides imply that the formation of the Dehenglong landslide is strongly correlated with the tectonic activity.

Formation Mechanisms and Geomorphic Evolution of the Erlian Mudflow Fans, Eastern Guide Basin of the Upper Reaches of Yellow River

Several argillaceous platforms lie along the Yellow River（YR） of the eastern Guide Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, and their compositions, formation processes, and geomorphic evolution remain debated. Using field survey data, sample testing, and high-resolution remote sensing images, the evolution of the Erlian mudflow fans are analyzed. The data show significant differences between fans on either side of the YR. On the right bank, fans are dilute debris flows consisting of sand and gravel. On the left bank, fans are viscosity mudflows consisting of red clay. The composition and formation processes of the left bank platforms indicate a rainfall-induced pluvial landscape. Fan evolution can be divided into two stages： early-stage fans pre-date 16 ka B.P., and formed during the last deglaciation; late-stage fans post-date 8 ka B.P.. Both stages were induced by climate change. The data indicate that during the Last Glacial Maximum, the northeastern Tibetan Plateau experienced a cold and humid climate characterized by high rainfall. From 16–8 ka, the YR cut through the Erlian early mudflow fan, resulting in extensive erosion. Since 8 ka, the river channel has migrated south by at least 1.25 km, and late stage mudflow fan formation has occurred.

Farm Production Growth in the Upper and Middle Parts of the Yellow River Basin,China,During 1980-1999

The impact of inputs on farm production growth was evaluated by analyzing the economic data of the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River basin, China for the period of 1980-1999. Descriptive statistics were employed to characterize the temporal trends and spatial patterns in farm production and five pertinent inputs of cultivated cropland, irrigation ratio, agricultural labor, machinery power and chemical fertilizer. Stochastic frontier production function was applied to quantify the dependence of the farm production on these inputs. The growth of farm production was decomposed to reflect the contributions by input growths and change in total factor productivity.. The change in total factor productivity was further decomposed into the changes in technology and in technical efficiency. The gross value of farm production in the region of study increased by 1.6 fold during 1980-1999. Among the five selected farm inputs, machinery power and chemical fertilizer increased by 1.8 and 2.8 fold, respectively. The increases in cultivated cropland, irrigated cropland, and agricultural labor were all less than 0.16 fold. The growth in the farm production was primarily contributed by the increase in the total factor productivity during 1980-1985, and by input growths after 1985. More than 80% of the contributions by input growths were attributed to the increased application of fertilizer and machinery. In the change of total factor productivity, the technology change dominated over the technical efficiency change in the study period except in the period of 1985-1990, implying that institution and investment played important roles in farm production growth. There was a decreasing trend in the technical efficiency in the region of study, indicating a potential to increase farm production by improving the technical efficiency in farm activities. Given the limited natural resources in the basin, the results of this study suggested that, for a sustainable growth of farm production in the area, efforts should be directed to technology progress and improvement in technical efficiency in the use of available resources.

STUDIES ON TERRACES AND RIVER SYSTEM CHANGES OF THE UPPER YELLOW RIVER

There are seven steps of terrace both in the Guide basin and Gonghe basin along the Yellow River. More close to the source, less the steps of terrace. Three ancient terraces are found in Gonghe basin. The upper reaches of the Yellow River was joined up by a series of stream captures at different periods of time, the ancient Yellow River linked up the Gonghe basin and Guide basin at the end of the middle Pleistocene, the Longyangxia gorge developed around 60 Ka.B.P., and the gorge between Maqu and Tangnag developed around 20 Ka.B.P.

The relationship between ENSO cycle and high and low-flow in the upper Yellow River

Firstly, the hydrological and meteorological features of the upper reaches of the Yellow River above Tangnag are analyzed based on observation data, and effects of EI Nino and La Ni na events on the high and low flow in the upper Yellow River are discussed. The results show El Nino and La Nina events possess consanguineous relationship wi th runoff in the upper Yellow River. As a whole, the probability of low fl ow occurrence in the upper Yellow River is relatively great along wit h the occurrence of El Nino event. Moreover, the flood in the upper Yellow River occurs frequently with the occurrence of La Nina event. Besides, the results also show dissimilarity of El Nino event occurri ng time exerts greater impact on high flow and low flow in the uppe r Yellow River, that is, the probability of drought will be greater in the sam e year if El Nino event occurs in spring, the high-flow may happen in this y ear if El Nino occurs in summer or autumn; the longer the continuous period of El Nino is, the lower the runoff in the upper Yellow River is.

Capability of TMPA products to simulate streamflow in upper Yellow and Yangtze River basins on Tibetan Plateau

Due to the high elevation, complex terrain, severe weather, and inaccessibility, direct meteorological observations do not exist over large portions of the Tibetan Plateau, especially the western part of it. Satellite rainfall estimates have been very important sources for precipitation information, particularly in rain gauge-sparse regions. In this study, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis （TMPA） products 3B42, RTV5V6, and RTV7 were evaluated for their applicability to the upper Yellow and Yangtze River basins on the Tibetan Plateau. Moreover, the capability of the TMPA products to simulate streamflow was also investigated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity （VIC） semi-distributed hydrological model. Results show that 3B42 performs better than RTVSV6 and RTV7, based on verification of the China Meteorological Administration （CMA） observational precipitation data. RTVSV6 can roughly capture the spatial precipitation pattern but overestimation exists throughout the entire study region. The anticipated improvements of RTV7 relative to RTVSV6 have not been realized in this study. Our results suggest that RTV7 significantly overestimates the precipitation over the two river basins, though it can capture the seasonal cycle features of precipitation. 3B42 shows the best performance in streamflow simulation of the abovementioned satellite products. Although involved in gauge adjustment at a monthly scale, 3B42 is capable of daily streamflow simulation. RTV5V6 and RTV7 have no capability to simulate streamflow in the upper Yellow and Yangtze River basins.

Effects of grassland vegetation roots on soil infiltration rate in Xiazangtan super large scale landslide distribution area in the upper reaches of the Yellow River,China

In order to study the infiltration characteristics of grassland soil in the super large scale landslides distribution area in the upper reaches of the Yellow River,this study selected the Xiazangtan super large scale distribution area in Jianzha County as the study area.Through experiments and numerical simulations,plant roots characteristics,soil physical properties and infiltration characteristics of naturally grazed grassland and enclosed grassland with different slope directions were compared and analyzed,and the influence of rainfall on seepage field and stability of the two grassland slopes were discussed.The results show that the highest soil moisture infiltration capacity(FIR)is found on the shady slope of the enclosed grassland(2.25),followed by the sunny slope of the enclosed grassland(1.23)and the shady slope of the naturally grazed grassland(-0.87).Correlation analysis show that soil water content,root dry weight density,total soil porosity,number of forks and root length are positively correlated with infiltration rate(P<0.05),whereas soil dry density is negatively correlated with infiltration rate(P<0.05).The results of stepwise regression analyses show that soil water content,total soil porosity,root length and number of forks are the main factors affecting soil infiltration capacity.And the ability of roots to increase soil infiltration by improving soil properties is higher than the effect of roots itself.After 60 min of simulated rainfall,the safety factors of the shady slopes of naturally grazed grassland and enclosed grassland are reduced by 29.56%and 19.63%,respectively,comparing to those before rainfall.Therefore,in this study,the roots play a crucial role in regulating soil infiltration and enhance slope stability by increasing soil water content,soil total porosity and shear strength while decreasing soil dry density.The results of this study provide theoretical evidence and practical guidance for the effective prevention and control of secondary geological disasters such as soil erosion and shallow landslide on the slope of river banks in the study area by using plant ecological measures.

Geomorphological and environmental evolution in the upper reaches of the Yellow River during the late Cenozoic

Studies of the geomorphology and stratigraphy in the upper reaches of the Yellow River during the late Cenozoic demonstrate that the period of 30 - 3.4 Ma is characterized by a relatively stable tectonic setting, a persistently hot climate and a wide distribution of inland basins. This long-term stable environment resulted in a planation surface, the main surface on the Qinghai-Xizang (Qingzang) Plateau, on which red earth crust and karst arc formed. Since 3.4 Ma, the Qingzang Plateau was 'uplifted as a whole massif, accompanied by the dissection and disintegration of the main surface, termination of deposition and deformation of stratigraphy in red basins, increasing relief and commencing accumulation of inland molasse formation mainly of conglomerate. Subsequent strong uplift of the Qingzang Plateau at 2.5 Ma and 1.7-1.66 Ma led to cormation of the basic geomorphological configuration of the Qingzang Plateau and occurrence of the Yellow River. These three strong uplifts of the Qingzang Plateau between 3.4 Ma and 1.7 -1.66 Ma was, therefore, named the Qingzang movement and divided correspondingly into three phases A. B and C. After the appearance of the Yellow River, the Qingzang Plateau continued uplifting intermittently, resulting in 8 valley terraces dated to 1.63. 1.5, 1.2. 0.8, 0.6, 0.15. 0.05. and 0.01 Ma. which also record the whole process of headward erosion of the Yellow River.

Calculation method for sediment load in flood and non-flood seasons in the Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River

Based on an empirical sediment transport equation that reflects the characteristics of ＂more input, more output＂ for sediment-laden flow in rivers, a general sediment transport expression was developed, which can take into account the effects of upstream sediment input, previous cumulative sediment deposition, critical runoff for sediment initiation, and the differences in sediment particle sizes between the mainstream and tributaries. Then, sedi- ment load equations for non-flood and flood seasons for the sub-reaches from Bayangaole to Sanhuhekou and from Sanhuhekou to Toudaoguai, as well as the whole Inner Mongolia reach from Bayangaole to Toudaoguai, were formulated based on data collected between 1952 and 2010. The corresponding sediment deposition and the cumulative values at each river reach were calculated using the proposed sediment transport equations for the period 1952 to 2010 according to the principle of sediment conservation. Comparisons between the calculated and measured values using the proposed sediment load equations for the sub-reaches and the entire reach showed that the calculated sediment load and sediment deposition and the cor- responding cumulative values in the flood and non-flood seasons were in good agreement with the measured values. These results indicated that the proposed methods can be applied to calculate the sediment load and the associated sediment deposition in the flood and non-flood seasons for long-term trend analysis of sediment deposition in the Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River.

The effect of reforestation on stream flow in Upper Nan river basin using Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model

Forests are an important natural resource,vital to all life.Forests are an important source of food,clothing,and medicines,as well as a place to live.Water released from forests drains into the soil causing groundwater to emerge as stream flow throughout the year.In Thailand,most forests have been encroached by logging,paper production,and housing construction.Population growth and the need for farming area for crop and livestock production have also caused forest encroachment.Technical tools are needed to support the decision makers and planners if they are to achieve objectives of water conservation,and development.These technical tools are needed for assistance in the engineering,socio-economic,and environmental planning.The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)was used in the hydrological modeling in this study of the complex and dynamic problems of The Upper Nan river basin.This was a case study to evaluate the impact of changing conditions in the river basin affected by the stream flow due to reforestation.The watershed area was delineated into 5 sub-watersheds based on surface topography provided by the Digital Elevation Model(DEM)and the parameters of each of these watersheds were calculated.The land use data was processed and reclassified to match with the SWAT model land use code.Ten different categories of land use in the study area were used for SWAT processing.Types of land use consist of:mixed forest(33.7%),disturbed forest(30.2%),evergreen forest(17.7%),paddy field(7.1%),orchard(3.7%),range brush(2.7%),field crop(1.7%),planted forest(1.7%),urban(1.4%)and water resources(0.4%).Twenty-two types of soil were found in the basin.The initial curve number values were assigned based on the land use type and soil hydrologic group for the average antecedent moisture condition of the curve number method.The potential evapotranspiration was computed using the Penman-Monteith method.The simulation was performed using three reforestation scenarios to assess stream flow:(1)improved disturbed forest,(2)field crops and range grass,and(3)both disturbed forest and field crops.The results of reforestation from scenarios 1 and 3 can increase stream flow in the drought season and can also reduce the flow in the wet season in the main stream and its tributaries.For scenario 2 Reforestation had no significant effect on the main stream.

混合式抽水蓄能电站群容量计算研究Ⅰ:短期调峰特征与梯级开发增益

依托常规梯级水电站修建混合式抽水蓄能电站(简称混蓄电站)成为提升电力系统调峰能力的重要途径。混蓄电站即可抽水又可发电的典型运行方式增加了水电基地的灵活性调节能力,为此亟需研究其运行方式以及与原有梯级水电站运行方式间的互馈关系。研究以黄河上游待开发龙羊峡-拉西瓦、拉西瓦-尼那混蓄电站为对象,建立含混蓄电站的梯级水电站短期联合调峰优化模型,分析混蓄电站对原有梯级水电站运行方式的影响,基于理论推导与数值计算两种方法揭示混蓄电站调峰效果的变化特征。主要结论如下:(1)混蓄电站抽水水量经由原有梯级水电站机组下泄,使得非填谷时段原有水电站出力增加,水电站上旋备容量降低;(2)龙羊峡水电站满发流量相对较小、拉西瓦水库调节库容较小以及日综合利用供水流量过大是制约混蓄电站调峰效果的主要因素,发现了综合利用流量影响混蓄电站调峰效果的临界特性,并提出了临界综合利用流量的计算公式;(3)发现并量化了混蓄电站梯级开发模式较单一开发模式所带来的梯级抽水调峰增益现象,并揭示了梯级抽水调峰增益背后所蕴含的“河流梯级反向再造”内在机理。

甘肃积石山强震诱发同震滑坡-泥流灾害链联动耦合致灾效应

近年来黄土区强震和极端天气诱发的典型滑坡-泥流灾害链事件呈多发态势,链式地质灾害较单一灾害隐蔽性更强、波及范围更大、破坏程度更高、损失更严重,因此链式地质灾害防控研究一直是防灾减灾的热点和难点。2023年12月18日23时59分,甘肃省临夏州积石山县发生Ms 6.2级地震,震源深度10 km,已造成151人死亡。此次强震诱发青海省民和县中川乡草滩村—金田村滑坡-泥流链式灾害,共造成20人死亡,灾害链致死率占地震遇难总人数的13.5%。灾后通过遥感影像处理解译、文献资料整理甄别、无人机摄影航测、野外详细勘查访问、现场采样分析测试等手段方法,对滑坡-泥流链式灾害开展了较全面系统研究,恢复和重现滑坡-泥流灾害链的启动-滑动-流动-堆积过程,探讨提出“滑源区地表冻结阻隔滞水效应、滑源区沟谷整平回填滞水效应、滑源区台地灌溉渗流饱水效应、滑源区振动液化筛选启动效应、滑源区漏斗收口增速启动效应、流通区土体差异流动分选效应、流通区沟岸坍塌补给增流效应、流通区沟底冰封饱水加速效应、堆积区上游渗水补给增程效应”等9大联动耦合致灾效应。该研究可为链式地质灾害的形成机理与防控提供科学参考。

考虑新能源消纳的黄河上游水电站群生态优化调度研究

为降低黄河上游水电站群调度中新能源消纳对河流径流情势和生态完整度的影响,以河流径流情势变化最小、水电站群发电量最大、发电出力平稳性最高为目标,建立了风水光多能互补系统生态调度模型,采用多目标进化算法求解,探讨了多能互补系统发电出力、新能源消纳及河流生态保护之间的均衡关系。结果表明:水电站群发电量和河流生态保护目标之间呈现明显的竞争关系,多能互补系统的发电出力波动越大,水电站群发电量越大,径流情势变化也越大;入库径流量越大,水电站群生态调度对径流情势的影响越小;多能互补系统生态调度对径流情势的影响主要集中在年发生高/低流量脉冲次数和流量平均增加率/减少率这两项指标,在枯水年发电量最大的调度结果中,年发生低流量脉冲次数和流量平均减少率指标的变化最大。

黄河流域矿产资源开发-经济-环境耦合协调发展及时空演化研究

黄河流域长期过量的矿产资源开发导致的生态退化和环境问题日益恶化,如何在环境约束下促进经济高质量发展已经成为黄河流域的重要课题。首先,将9个位于黄河流域的省份作为研究对象,选取矿产资源开发、经济、环境3个子系统的7个二级指标和28个三级指标,构建黄河流域矿产资源开发、经济和环境耦合协调评价体系,基于2011—2021年各省份面板数据,运用熵权法对该区域各省三大系统的综合发展水平进行评价。其次,构建黄河流域耦合协调度模型研究3个子系统之间的耦合协调关系,并使用ArcGIS来研究其时空格局上的演变过程。研究发现:1)2011—2021年各省综合发展指数不断提高,整体呈现为下游高于中游高于上游,上、中、下游地区综合发展指数增长率分别为59.2%、51.9%、60.9%;2)2011—2021年,耦合指数处于高值的省份数量逐渐增加,处于低值的省份数量逐渐减少,中、下游地区耦合指数水平均高于全流域的平均水平;3)从时间分布上来看,2011—2021年黄河流域个别省份处于协调状态以上,但仍有省份协调表现较差,三者的耦合协调度已接近失衡,但仍在稳定的向勉强协调发展,仍有很大空间;4)从空间格局来看,各省份协调指数均稳步增长,到2021年,处于协调状态的省份有8个,占所有省份的88.89%,且呈现“东高西低”(下游协调指数高于上游)的空间分布及省份间的两极分化现象。该研究结果可为黄河流域的环境保护和治理及区域间经济协调发展提供理论支持。基于研究,提出促进黄河流域协调发展的对策建议:重点关注地区之间的发展不平衡问题;加强科学规划建设;合理开发利用矿产资源,加强生态环境治理。

基于CMIP6耦合WRF的黄河上游复合干旱热浪事件演变规律

复合干旱热浪事件较传统极端气候事件破坏性更强,近年来在全球范围内发展迅速,黄河上游作为气候敏感区受其影响尤其突出,刻画其特征并分析未来可能气候条件下的演变趋势对事件防控有重要意义。本文提出了一种基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划CMIP6耦合天气预报研究模式WRF的未来气象数据动力降尺度方法。识别了黄河上游不同情景下的复合干旱热浪事件及其特征,揭示了复合事件与单一事件的区别,分析了复合干旱热浪事件的未来演变规律。结果表明:(1)历史期、SSP245和SSP585情景下复合干旱热浪事件较单一事件的温度升高3.8%、13.1%、13.5%,干旱指数降低5.8%、2.6%、2.6%,极端特征更加显著。(2)SSP245情景下复合干旱热浪事件特征呈西南高、东北低的空间分布形式,而在SSP585情景下以北部、东部区域分布最高。(3)未来各情景下区域整体复合干旱热浪事件特征呈显著上升趋势,其中SSP585的上升趋势高于SSP245。