Per Capita Monthly Income of Urban and Rural Residents

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Comparative Research on Prediction Model of China's Urban-rural Residents' Income Gap

By using the data concerning China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 1978 to 2010,this paper mainly researches the application of several kinds of models in predicting China's urban-rural residents' income gap.By conducting empirical analysis,we establish ARIMA prediction model,grey prediction model and quadratic-polynomial prediction model and conduct accuracy comparison.The results show that quadratic-polynomial prediction model has excellent fitting effect.By using quadratic-polynomial prediction model,this paper conducts prediction on trend of China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 2011 to 2013,and the prediction value of income gap of urban-rural residents in China from 2011 to 2013 is 14 173.20,15 212.92 and 16 289.67 yuan respectively.Finally,on the basis of analysis,corresponding countermeasures are put forward,in order to provide scientific basis for energy planning and policy formulation:first,strengthen government's function of public service,coordinate resources,and strive to provide an equal opportunity of development for social members,so as to promote people's welfare and promote social equality;second,breach industrial monopoly and bridge income gap between employees in monopoly industry and general industry;last but not the least,support,encourage and call for government to establish social relief fund,adjust residents' income distribution from the non-governmental perspective,and endeavor to promote the income level of low-income class.

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between the Fixed Assets Investment and Urban-rural Income Gap during the Transition Period

As the gap in income between urban and rural residents bigger and bigger,based on the data from 1978 to 2007,this paper makes an empirical study of the dynamic relation between the fixed assets investment and the difference in income between urban and rural residents. The outcome from the study indicates a long-term balance exists between the investment rate of the fixed assets and the difference in income between urban and rural residents. A short-term deviation from the balance can be adjusted through long time. To a certain extent,city-oriented fixed assets investment policy is the main cause of the big gap in income between urban and rural residents. The big gap in income between urban and rural residents in turn reinforces their social status,thus further strengthening the city-oriented instead of countryside-oriented fixed assets investment policy. Based on that,this paper puts forward some suggestions on adjusting the fixed assets investment policy so as to shorten the difference in income between urban and rural residents and realize the goal of harmonious development between city and countryside.

The Approaches to Narrowing Urban-Rural Income Gap——From the Perspective of Rural Social Security

From the situations about the incomes and life quality of the urban and rural residents,the thesis briefly introduces the status quo of the urban-rural income gap and explores the impact of the income gap on social economy:firstly,it hampers economic development;secondly,it is detrimental to the social development.Then the thesis analyzes the role of a sound social security in narrowing urban-rural income gap:at first,it broadens the institutional environment of improving the agricultural efficiency;secondly,it eliminates the uncertainties influencing the farmers' income;thirdly,it improves the farmers' capacity to increase income;at last,it enhances the farmers' consciousness of wealth.Next the thesis inquires into the problems existing in the system of rural social security:the first problem is more obviously fragmented system;the second is inadequate security projects and narrower coverage;the third is an obvious lack of equality in urban and rural security;the fourth is even less sound management system;the last is the lagging of legislation.Afterwards the thesis proposes the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the system of rural social security and narrow urban-rural income gap:firstly,to integrate the social security system in rural areas;secondly,to perfect security projects and enhance the security system;thirdly,to integrate the administrative management of social security;at last,to enforce the legal system.

Empirical Study of China's Rural Consumption Function from the Perspective of Balancing Urban and Rural Development

From the perspective of balancing urban and rural development,this article researches the factors influencing the consumption level of rural residents in China.I select the relevant data concerning per capita net income of rural households and annual per capita consumer spending of rural residents for living in the period 1985-2008,establish the regression model of per capita net income of rural households and per capita consumer spending of rural residents for living,and conduct regression analysis and error correction model test using the measurement software.The analysis results show that there is not only long-term equilibrium relationship between rural residents' current consumption and rural residents' current income,between rural residents' consumption in lag period 1 and rural residents' income in lag period 1,but also short-term equilibrium relationship;current income is the main reason for determining the current consumption).Corresponding proposals are put forward to promote the level of rural consumption in China as follows:propel agricultural modernization;actively develop specialized cooperative organizations of rural residents;improve rural land transfer mechanism;promote the level of public services in rural areas;accelerate the transfer of rural surplus labor.

Co-integration Analysis of the Effect of Population Urbanization on Urban-rural Income Gap in Jiangxi Province

This paper selects related data on the urbanization and the incomes of urban and rural residents in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2014, applies the theory of co-integration by Eviews Software, meanwhile, studies and analyzes the population urbanization and the income gap between urban and rural residents in Jiangxi Province through establishing an index system. Results： There is a cause-and-effect relationship, as well as duality, between the urban-rural income gap and the level of population urbanization in Jiangxi Province. With continuous promotion of the urbanization course in 1990-2014, the income gap between urban and rural residents in Jiangxi Province presents a phenomenon of expanding first, narrowing second and expanding again.

实现共同富裕的一个路径探索:人力资本的增长与平衡效应检验

共同富裕是我国新发展阶段的一个远景目标,“富裕”和“共享”是实现共同富裕的关键。构造一个反映人力资本与城乡居民收入差距关系的理论模型,并基于经验证据检验人力资本通过增长效应和平衡效应推动“富裕”和“共享”,进而促进共同富裕的作用。研究发现,人力资本提升既有利于“蛋糕”做大,又能有效促进“蛋糕”更好地分配,显著提升了城乡居民可支配收入水平,且对农村居民收入的提升力度大于城镇居民,成为缩小城乡居民收入差距的关键变量,推动了“富裕”和“共享”目标的实现;中介效应检验证实了人力资本通过促进农村高技能劳动力流向城镇,间接推动城乡居民收入增长和差距缩小,从而实现其增长与平衡效应;分样本回归结果显示,人力资本的平衡效应在低收入省份更加明显,而在高收入省份不显著。

产业转型升级、城乡收入差距与居民消费

居民消费是畅通国内大循环的关键环节和重要引擎,产业转型升级优化了消费供给。本文实证分析了产业转型升级对居民消费的直接影响,以及通过城乡收入差距所产生的间接影响。研究发现,经济高质量发展期间,产业转型升级显著促进居民消费;城乡收入差距在产业转型升级和居民消费间的中介效应显著,产业转型升级会通过缩小城乡收入差距间接促进居民消费;产业转型升级对居民消费的影响以及城乡收入差距的中介效应均存在区域异质性,西部地区的直接影响和中介影响均强于中部和东部地区。因此,应该通过供给侧为居民提供丰富、高质量的商品,满足人民日益增长的消费需求;通过产业转型升级带动就业,提高劳动力收入,缩小城乡收入差距,同时积极防范部分地区在实施产业转型升级政策时出现扩大城乡收入差距等问题。

城乡医保统筹对缩小城乡居民收入差距的有效性研究

缩小城乡居民收入差距是实现共同富裕的基础,基于我国城乡医保制度改革的视角,使用中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)数据构造多期双重差分模型,评估医保统筹制度对城乡居民收入差距影响的政策效果。研究结果表明:医保统筹政策相对于“新农合”与“城居保”制度显著缩小了城乡居民的收入差距,政策针对农村的低学历、中低收入以及中老年群体产生更明显的效果。机制分析进一步证明统筹医保制度可以通过降低农村居民医疗支出负担、提升其健康水平等渠道缩小城乡居民收入差距。因此,推进医疗保险统筹改革,在制度设计上应该更有针对性地向农村居民群体倾斜,提升受益公平性,为迈向共同富裕提供制度性保障。

中国城乡居民养老保险的收入差距调节效应

城乡居民基本养老保险作为社会养老保险体系的核心组成部分,理应在更好解决“老有所养”的同时,发挥出进一步破解城乡二元格局、调节收入分配和缩小城乡差距的功能与效果。基于相关年份分省面板数据和中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,对现阶段城乡居民基本养老保险收入差距调节效应,结合宏观和微观两个视角逐步进行了实证检验与分析探讨。研究结果表明,在全国层面上,现阶段城乡居民基本养老保险发展与城乡收入差距之间存在显著非线性关系,并且呈现出先扩大而后缩小的“倒U形”轨迹;同时,微观检验也部分地验证了这一结果。为此提出:(1)应高度重视城乡居民基本养老保险的收入分配调节功能与差异化发展趋势;(2)应逐步完善城乡居民基本养老保险的缴费和待遇调整机制;(3)应通过高质量发展和促进农民和弱势群体收入增长来更好地发挥城乡居民基本养老保险的消除老年贫困和收入分配调节功能。

普惠保险、农村人力资本投资与城乡收入差距

基于柯布道格拉斯生产函数模型等理论,运用中介效应模型等方法,利用2012—2021年我国30个省(区、市)面板数据,分析普惠保险对农村人力资本投资和城乡收入差距的影响。结果表明:农村人力资本投资在普惠保险缩小城乡收入差距中具有中介效应;在居民受教育水平和农村人力资本投资水平较低的地区,普惠保险更有利于缩小城乡收入差距。因此,要充分发挥普惠保险优势,因地制宜有序缩小城乡收入差距。

非认知能力对城乡户籍人口收入的异质性影响——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS)的实证研究

使用2018年的中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),选取大五人格量表测量非认知能力,综合利用普通最小二乘法、条件分位数回归、无条件分位数回归以及工具变量法,实证检验了非认知能力对城乡户籍人口收入的异质性影响,研究发现:城乡户籍人口非认知能力的收入回报率存在明显差异,相较于城市户籍人口,非认知能力对农村户籍人口收入的影响更大,另外,非认知能力对农村户籍低收入者的影响大于农村户籍高收入者。因此,应当充分发挥教育在解决相对贫困、阻断贫困代际传递中的关键作用,充分发挥财政补偿职能,强化乡村教育中非认知能力的培养。具体来说,应重视农村户籍低收入者非认知能力的培养与提升;将农村学生非认知能力培养贯穿于整个乡村教育过程中;在家庭教育中加强非认知能力培养。

消解收入极化与促进共同富裕

共同富裕是社会主义的本质要求,是中国式现代化的重要特征。为了研究如何制度性消解收入极化的问题,进而促进共同富裕,构建了收入极化“形成-扩大-固化”和中国“消解收入极化”的理论机制,测度了中国居民收入极化水平的变动趋势,并对收入极化及其消解的理论机制进行了实证检验。研究发现,2012—2020年中国居民收入极化水平呈“降-升-降”的变动趋势;家庭禀赋、社会环境是收入极化形成的主要因素;家庭优势积累、地区发展差异导致的马太效应使收入极化出现动态扩大的趋势;收入两端的居民流动性差异则成为收入极化固化的潜在机制。研究表明,中国具有消解收入极化的独特制度优势,再分配和第三次分配均对居民市场收入的极化水平起到了显著调节作用,脱贫攻坚战则提高了贫困居民收入增长速度,畅通了向上流动通道;中国应该发挥社会主义制度优势,通过优化收入分配格局、缩小地区和城乡收入差距以及健全收入调节机制等消解收入极化问题,进而促进全体人民共同富裕。

农产品流通数字化能否提高农业经济韧性

流通是生产和消费间的重要纽带,农产品流通数字化促进生产、流通、消费的良性循环。文章基于2012—2021年省级面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型实证研究了农产品流通数字化对农业经济韧性的影响。结果表明:农产品流通数字化能够显著提高农业经济韧性并具有明显的正向空间溢出效应;城乡收入差距在农产品流通数字化影响农业经济韧性机制中发挥了负向调节作用;异质性分析发现农产品流通数字化对农业经济韧性的影响和空间溢出效应在东部地区和粮食主销区更加显著。政府应完善数字基础设施建设、加快农产品流通数字化转型,促进城乡整合发展、缩小城乡收入差距,协调省际流通资源布局、增强协同联动效应,为提升农业经济韧性创造良好环境。

农村地区城乡居民基本医疗保险制度反贫困效果研究——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的实证分析

党的二十届三中全会指出,要切实保障和改善民生,巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果。农村地区城乡居民基本医疗保险制度是医疗保障反贫困政策体系的重要组成部分。基于2012年、2014年、2016年、2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,采用固定效应模型和倾向得分匹配-双重差分法,从收入贫困和能力贫困多维度探讨农村地区城乡居民基本医疗保险制度的反贫困效果。实证研究发现,农村地区城乡居民基本医疗保险制度的反贫困效果显著,但反贫困效果呈下降趋势;大病保险进一步增强了反贫困效果,且反贫困效果呈上升趋势。因此,应提高农村地区城乡居民基本医疗保险制度的可持续性,强化农村三重医疗保障制度反贫困的综合保障能力,并进一步提高大病保险的保障力度。

数字经济对城乡居民收入差距影响研究——兼论城镇化的门槛效应

数字经济为缩小居民收入差距带来了新机遇,而“数字鸿沟”又可能引发新的贫富差距。研究数字经济对城乡居民收入差距的影响,对于认识和缩小差距,实现共同富裕具有重要意义。文章基于2011—2020年31个省域面板数据,通过构建静态、动态面板模型及门槛模型,分析数字经济对城乡居民收入差距的影响。研究发现:省域层面上,数字经济显著缩小城乡居民收入差距,且该影响具有单一门槛效应。在城镇化水平较低时,数字经济对城乡收入差距的影响不显著;当城镇化水平越过门槛值,数字经济水平显著影响城乡收入差距的缩小。异质性分析发现,我国南北地区呈现出不同的效应,北方省份城乡收入差距受数字经济水平影响较小,而南方较大。

数字创新创业赋能城乡共同富裕的实证检验

文章基于2012—2021年中国30个省份的面板数据,实证检验数字创新创业对城乡共同富裕的影响及作用机制。结果表明,数字创新创业对城乡共同富裕具有显著促进作用。异质性分析结果表明,相较于数字创新,数字创业对城乡共同富裕的促进效应更强;数字创新创业对城乡共同富裕的促进作用在西部、东北地区更加显著。作用机制检验结果表明,数字创新创业通过优化居民收入结构、提升技术创新能力,促进城乡共同富裕。因此,应激发乡村数字创新创业活力,促进城乡共同富裕;提升乡村企业技术创新水平,优化乡村居民收入结构;实施差异化发展策略,缩小城乡群体数字鸿沟。

Chinese decentralization and income inequality between urban and rural residents--An empirical study based on the dual dimensions of internal and external budget

The paper firstly explains the mechanism of decentralization on income inequality from two theoretical dimensions of internal and external budget.Based on the re-measurement of income Gini coefficient and Chinese decentralization level,this paper establishes panel data model from national and regional perspective to empirically investigate the impact of Chinese decentralization on income inequality between urban and rural residents.Firstly,the promotion of budgetary income decentralization is conductive to reduce income inequality of urban and rural residents whether it is from the national or sub regional.Second,although the promotion of budgetary expenditure decentralization exacerbates the urban-rural income inequality in the national level,it could obviously reduce the urban-rural income inequality in the midwest with relatively low level of budgetary expenditure decentralization.Thirdly,the impact of extra-budgetary decentralization on income inequality is consistent,no matter in the whole country,in eastern or in western regions.This means that the extra-budgetary income decentralization makes the income inequality between urban and rural residents worse while the extra-budgetary expenditure decentralization reduces the income inequality between urban and rural residents with different degrees.Fourthly,the transfer payment,years of schooling and urban unemployment rate are conductive to narrow the income inequality between urban and rural residents while the impacts of economic development,urbanization and opening degree are obviously different in different regions.The above conclusions can not only be used for reference to further perfecting and reshaping the fair efficiency mechanism of Chinese decentralization,but also indicates the direction of the new fiscal and tax system reform.

数字普惠金融、城乡居民收入与消费差距

文章通过构建动态面板模型,利用2011—2020年我国省级数据,探究数字普惠金融对城乡居民消费差距的影响效应。结果表明:数字普惠金融有效缩小了城乡居民消费差距,经过稳健性检验后该结论仍成立;数字普惠金融通过三条渠道缩小消费差距,即提高支付便利性、拓宽融资渠道、降低预防性储蓄需求;数字普惠金融能够通过缩小城乡居民收入差距间接影响消费差距;数字普惠金融对城乡居民消费差距的改善效应存在区域与消费品类别异质性,即在东北、中部和西部地区效果更好,对城乡居民享受型和发展型消费差距改善效果更显著。

移动互联网发展对城乡居民收入差距的影响——基于空间面板计量模型的实证研究

探求移动互联网发展的城乡居民收入差距效应,对于加强数字经济赋能共同富裕,促进人民生活品质提升具有重要意义。基于2014-2021年省级面板数据,利用空间面板计量模型对我国移动互联网发展对城乡居民收入差距的影响效应进行实证研究。研究结果表明,移动互联网发展对城乡居民收入差距具有显著的正向直接效应,移动互联网发展会扩大城乡居民收入差距,但是移动互联网发展对城乡居民收入差距的影响不具有明显的空间溢出效应。因此,提出从基础设施建设、产业转型升级、人力资本提升等途径加强移动互联网发展对缩小城乡居民收入差距促进作用的政策建议。