Both in developed and in developing countries, the construction industry is regarded as an economic investment activity without forgetting its significant relationship with national economic development due to its gre...Both in developed and in developing countries, the construction industry is regarded as an economic investment activity without forgetting its significant relationship with national economic development due to its great contributions to the national gross domestic product (GDP) of the country. Concerning construction processes, both risk management (RM) and value engineering (VE) techniques have commonalities from the beginning up to the completion of the project due to enhancing the project value/quality, meeting the project deadline, and reducing overall project cost. VE includes resolving the uncertainty of project objectives and ensuring that the project is delivered in a value for money way. The key point of RM is to solve the uncertainty of the project itself and its results to ensure that the specifications are achieved within the prescribed time, cost, and quality constraints. This review work is comparatively and collectively focus</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ed</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> on assessing the role of RM and VE tools for project successful delivery. It studies the points of difference and common features of the two aspects in terms of construction project delivery. So, this study concluded that in construction RM tool cannot be the chief aim of the all parties involved in the project execution because sometimes it produces itself negative results and reduces project management success. Therefore, RM needs a strong combination with VE due to the dependence of the target in identifying and assessing risks by considering the highest performance and lowest cost. The integration of RM and VE combination in a single study would avoid duplication of work and deliver better value for money thereby leading to better project outcomes.展开更多
Value at risk (VaR) is adopted to measure the risk level in the electricity market. To estimate VaR at higher accuracy and reliability, the wavelet variance decomposed approach for value at risk estimates (WVDVaR) is ...Value at risk (VaR) is adopted to measure the risk level in the electricity market. To estimate VaR at higher accuracy and reliability, the wavelet variance decomposed approach for value at risk estimates (WVDVaR) is proposed. Empirical studies conduct in five Australian electricity markets, which evaluate the performances of both the proposed approach and the traditional ARMA-GARCH approach using the Kupiec backtesting procedure. Experimental results suggest that the proposed approach measures electricity market risks at higher accuracy and reliability than the bench mark ARMA-GARCH approach, as indicated by the higher p values during the Kupiec backtesting procedure. In addition, the new approach also provides more insight into the risk evolution process over time and helps in adjusting VaR estimates to the time horizons that best suit investor interests. The distribution of risk according to investor preferences is shown by decomposing VaR across different time horizons. This also provides important information for the appropriate aggregation of risk measures based on investor investment preferences.展开更多
The investment strategy choice of state-owned commercial bank is related to its franchise value change information. This paper analyzes the franchise value change information of state-owned commercial bank. The franch...The investment strategy choice of state-owned commercial bank is related to its franchise value change information. This paper analyzes the franchise value change information of state-owned commercial bank. The franchise value change information shows that the franchise value of state-owned Commercial Bank is descending. Along with the descending of the franchise value, state-owned commercial bank strengthens its high risk investment motive when it chooses its investment strategy. State-owned commercial bank tends to run the high risk of investing securities because its investment variety is very sparse. Based on the theoretical principle of how to control securities investment risk, this paper proposes some countermeasures and suggestions that state-owned commercial bank strengthen the control of its securities investment risk in order to perfect its investment strategy.展开更多
The Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures is taken as a study object and a method of empirical analysis is adopted in order to verify the validity of the application of the value-at-risk (VaR) method in the risk measureme...The Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures is taken as a study object and a method of empirical analysis is adopted in order to verify the validity of the application of the value-at-risk (VaR) method in the risk measurement of the stock index futures market. The results suggest that under normal market conditions it is feasible to apply the VaR method in the measurement of the market risks of stock index futures. The daily VaR value of the stock index futures provides a foreseeable profit and loss of the stock index futures. Financial supervisors can adjust their supervising strategies according to the daily VaR value. The speculators can adjust risk capital reserve rates in the same way. The application of this method in China's stock index futures market requires the solutions to specific problems: the absence of historical data, the difficult confirmation of non-risk interest rates etc.展开更多
The concept of value of information(VOI)has been widely used in the oil industry when making decisions on the acquisition of new data sets for the development and operation of oil fields.The classical approach to VOI ...The concept of value of information(VOI)has been widely used in the oil industry when making decisions on the acquisition of new data sets for the development and operation of oil fields.The classical approach to VOI assumes that the outcome of the data acquisition process produces crisp values,which are uniquely mapped onto one of the deterministic reservoir models representing the subsurface variability.However,subsurface reservoir data are not always crisp;it can also be fuzzy and may correspond to various reservoir models to different degrees.The classical approach to VOI may not,therefore,lead to the best decision with regard to the need to acquire new data.Fuzzy logic,introduced in the 1960 s as an alternative to the classical logic,is able to manage the uncertainty associated with the fuzziness of the data.In this paper,both classical and fuzzy theoretical formulations for VOI are developed and contrasted using inherently vague data.A case study,which is consistent with the future development of an oil reservoir,is used to compare the application of both approaches to the estimation of VOI.The results of the VOI process show that when the fuzzy nature of the data is included in the assessment,the value of the data decreases.In this case study,the results of the assessment using crisp data and fuzzy data change the decision from"acquire"the additional data(in the former)to"do not acquire"the additional data(in the latter).In general,different decisions are reached,depending on whether the fuzzy nature of the data is considered during the evaluation.The implications of these results are significant in a domain such as the oil and gas industry(where investments are huge).This work strongly suggests the need to define the data as crisp or fuzzy for use in VOI,prior to implementing the assessment to select and define the right approach.展开更多
In the previous study, we suggested the concept of new TQM based on the consideration of basic concept of Quality Control. Also, in the previous study, we suggested the target domains and entities of product and proce...In the previous study, we suggested the concept of new TQM based on the consideration of basic concept of Quality Control. Also, in the previous study, we suggested the target domains and entities of product and process based on the TQM Matrix and view point of Three Dimensional Unification Value Models for managing quality of organization systems. Furthermore, in the previous study, we suggest the Common Management Process of organizations. Based on the above suggestion, in this paper, we would like to propose the Common Management Process Model of Total Quality Management based on the consideration of situation analysis and more precise definition of TQM Matrix and Three Dimensional Unification Value Model of “Product and Process”. Improvement of quality and efficiency of organization management can be expected by the integration of conventional different management such as quality assurance, quality improvement, risk management, investment individually from the view point of common management process.展开更多
This study examines economic effects of business continuity management （BCM） disclosures through analyzing changes in shareholder returns in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake. The author examined differenc...This study examines economic effects of business continuity management （BCM） disclosures through analyzing changes in shareholder returns in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake. The author examined differences in the recovery of share price between disclosing and non-disclosing corporations. The results show that the cumulative average abnormal returns （CAARs） of disclosing corporations recovered faster than non-disclosing corporations. Then, the author examined differences in the recovery of share price between developing and non-developing corporations. The results show that there is no statistically significant difference in the recovery of share price between developing and non-developing corporations. Finally, the author examined the differences of BCM between disclosing and non-disclosing corporations. The results suggest that BCM or business continuity plan （BCP） disclosing corporations have a broader coverage of the BCP, more appropriate procedures for responding to emergency situations, more effective training of the BCM, and more mature BCM systems than non-disclosing ones.展开更多
构建新型电力系统是促进能源转型和实现碳达峰、碳中和的重要支撑,微电网技术是构建新型电力系统的重要环节。如何提高微电网可再生能源的消纳水平和应对其不确定性具有重要研究意义。该文强调微电网的“主动”能量管理。首先,从势博弈...构建新型电力系统是促进能源转型和实现碳达峰、碳中和的重要支撑,微电网技术是构建新型电力系统的重要环节。如何提高微电网可再生能源的消纳水平和应对其不确定性具有重要研究意义。该文强调微电网的“主动”能量管理。首先,从势博弈视角,建立微电网可再生能源局中人、广义储能局中人和柴油机组局中人模型;然后,构建广义储能模型,让作为“虚拟储能”的柔性负荷和储能单元协调运行,在分时电价激励下制定柔性负荷的详细调度计划并参与优化;最后,针对可再生能源的波动性和间歇性,引入条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)模型,量化评估风光不确定性所导致的风险成本,以追求风险和收益的平衡。仿真结果表明,所提出的方法在保证微电网个体的自主性和自利性的基础上,可有效改善柔性负荷用电曲线,所提出的CVaR模型具有较好的鲁棒性,可为可再生能源运营商在收益和风险之间的平衡提供参考方案。展开更多
文摘Both in developed and in developing countries, the construction industry is regarded as an economic investment activity without forgetting its significant relationship with national economic development due to its great contributions to the national gross domestic product (GDP) of the country. Concerning construction processes, both risk management (RM) and value engineering (VE) techniques have commonalities from the beginning up to the completion of the project due to enhancing the project value/quality, meeting the project deadline, and reducing overall project cost. VE includes resolving the uncertainty of project objectives and ensuring that the project is delivered in a value for money way. The key point of RM is to solve the uncertainty of the project itself and its results to ensure that the specifications are achieved within the prescribed time, cost, and quality constraints. This review work is comparatively and collectively focus</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ed</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> on assessing the role of RM and VE tools for project successful delivery. It studies the points of difference and common features of the two aspects in terms of construction project delivery. So, this study concluded that in construction RM tool cannot be the chief aim of the all parties involved in the project execution because sometimes it produces itself negative results and reduces project management success. Therefore, RM needs a strong combination with VE due to the dependence of the target in identifying and assessing risks by considering the highest performance and lowest cost. The integration of RM and VE combination in a single study would avoid duplication of work and deliver better value for money thereby leading to better project outcomes.
基金The National Social Science Foundation of China (No.07AJL005)the Foundation of City University of Hong Kong (No.9610058)
文摘Value at risk (VaR) is adopted to measure the risk level in the electricity market. To estimate VaR at higher accuracy and reliability, the wavelet variance decomposed approach for value at risk estimates (WVDVaR) is proposed. Empirical studies conduct in five Australian electricity markets, which evaluate the performances of both the proposed approach and the traditional ARMA-GARCH approach using the Kupiec backtesting procedure. Experimental results suggest that the proposed approach measures electricity market risks at higher accuracy and reliability than the bench mark ARMA-GARCH approach, as indicated by the higher p values during the Kupiec backtesting procedure. In addition, the new approach also provides more insight into the risk evolution process over time and helps in adjusting VaR estimates to the time horizons that best suit investor interests. The distribution of risk according to investor preferences is shown by decomposing VaR across different time horizons. This also provides important information for the appropriate aggregation of risk measures based on investor investment preferences.
文摘The investment strategy choice of state-owned commercial bank is related to its franchise value change information. This paper analyzes the franchise value change information of state-owned commercial bank. The franchise value change information shows that the franchise value of state-owned Commercial Bank is descending. Along with the descending of the franchise value, state-owned commercial bank strengthens its high risk investment motive when it chooses its investment strategy. State-owned commercial bank tends to run the high risk of investing securities because its investment variety is very sparse. Based on the theoretical principle of how to control securities investment risk, this paper proposes some countermeasures and suggestions that state-owned commercial bank strengthen the control of its securities investment risk in order to perfect its investment strategy.
文摘The Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures is taken as a study object and a method of empirical analysis is adopted in order to verify the validity of the application of the value-at-risk (VaR) method in the risk measurement of the stock index futures market. The results suggest that under normal market conditions it is feasible to apply the VaR method in the measurement of the market risks of stock index futures. The daily VaR value of the stock index futures provides a foreseeable profit and loss of the stock index futures. Financial supervisors can adjust their supervising strategies according to the daily VaR value. The speculators can adjust risk capital reserve rates in the same way. The application of this method in China's stock index futures market requires the solutions to specific problems: the absence of historical data, the difficult confirmation of non-risk interest rates etc.
文摘The concept of value of information(VOI)has been widely used in the oil industry when making decisions on the acquisition of new data sets for the development and operation of oil fields.The classical approach to VOI assumes that the outcome of the data acquisition process produces crisp values,which are uniquely mapped onto one of the deterministic reservoir models representing the subsurface variability.However,subsurface reservoir data are not always crisp;it can also be fuzzy and may correspond to various reservoir models to different degrees.The classical approach to VOI may not,therefore,lead to the best decision with regard to the need to acquire new data.Fuzzy logic,introduced in the 1960 s as an alternative to the classical logic,is able to manage the uncertainty associated with the fuzziness of the data.In this paper,both classical and fuzzy theoretical formulations for VOI are developed and contrasted using inherently vague data.A case study,which is consistent with the future development of an oil reservoir,is used to compare the application of both approaches to the estimation of VOI.The results of the VOI process show that when the fuzzy nature of the data is included in the assessment,the value of the data decreases.In this case study,the results of the assessment using crisp data and fuzzy data change the decision from"acquire"the additional data(in the former)to"do not acquire"the additional data(in the latter).In general,different decisions are reached,depending on whether the fuzzy nature of the data is considered during the evaluation.The implications of these results are significant in a domain such as the oil and gas industry(where investments are huge).This work strongly suggests the need to define the data as crisp or fuzzy for use in VOI,prior to implementing the assessment to select and define the right approach.
文摘In the previous study, we suggested the concept of new TQM based on the consideration of basic concept of Quality Control. Also, in the previous study, we suggested the target domains and entities of product and process based on the TQM Matrix and view point of Three Dimensional Unification Value Models for managing quality of organization systems. Furthermore, in the previous study, we suggest the Common Management Process of organizations. Based on the above suggestion, in this paper, we would like to propose the Common Management Process Model of Total Quality Management based on the consideration of situation analysis and more precise definition of TQM Matrix and Three Dimensional Unification Value Model of “Product and Process”. Improvement of quality and efficiency of organization management can be expected by the integration of conventional different management such as quality assurance, quality improvement, risk management, investment individually from the view point of common management process.
文摘This study examines economic effects of business continuity management （BCM） disclosures through analyzing changes in shareholder returns in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake. The author examined differences in the recovery of share price between disclosing and non-disclosing corporations. The results show that the cumulative average abnormal returns （CAARs） of disclosing corporations recovered faster than non-disclosing corporations. Then, the author examined differences in the recovery of share price between developing and non-developing corporations. The results show that there is no statistically significant difference in the recovery of share price between developing and non-developing corporations. Finally, the author examined the differences of BCM between disclosing and non-disclosing corporations. The results suggest that BCM or business continuity plan （BCP） disclosing corporations have a broader coverage of the BCP, more appropriate procedures for responding to emergency situations, more effective training of the BCM, and more mature BCM systems than non-disclosing ones.
文摘构建新型电力系统是促进能源转型和实现碳达峰、碳中和的重要支撑,微电网技术是构建新型电力系统的重要环节。如何提高微电网可再生能源的消纳水平和应对其不确定性具有重要研究意义。该文强调微电网的“主动”能量管理。首先,从势博弈视角,建立微电网可再生能源局中人、广义储能局中人和柴油机组局中人模型;然后,构建广义储能模型,让作为“虚拟储能”的柔性负荷和储能单元协调运行,在分时电价激励下制定柔性负荷的详细调度计划并参与优化;最后,针对可再生能源的波动性和间歇性,引入条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)模型,量化评估风光不确定性所导致的风险成本,以追求风险和收益的平衡。仿真结果表明,所提出的方法在保证微电网个体的自主性和自利性的基础上,可有效改善柔性负荷用电曲线,所提出的CVaR模型具有较好的鲁棒性,可为可再生能源运营商在收益和风险之间的平衡提供参考方案。
