Probabilistic back-analysis of rainfall-induced landslides for slope reliability prediction with multi-source information

Probabilistic back-analysis is an important means to infer the statistics of uncertain soil parameters,making the slope reliability assessment closer to the engineering reality.However,multi-source information(including test data,monitored data,field observation and slope survival records)is rarely used in current probabilistic back-analysis.Conducting the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction under rainfalls by integrating multi-source information is a challenging task since thousands of random variables and high-dimensional likelihood function are usually involved.In this paper,a framework by integrating a modified Bayesian Updating with Subset simulation(mBUS)method with adaptive Conditional Sampling(aCS)algorithm is established for the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction.Within this framework,the high-dimensional probabilistic back-analysis problem can be easily tackled,and the multi-source information(e.g.monitored pressure heads and slope survival records)can be fully used in the back-analysis.A real Taoyuan landslide case in Taiwan,China is investigated to illustrate the effectiveness and performance of the established framework.The findings show that the posterior knowledge of soil parameters obtained from the established framework is in good agreement with the field observations.Furthermore,the updated knowledge of soil parameters can be utilized to reliably predict the occurrence probability of a landslide caused by the heavy rainfall event on September 12,2004 or forecast the potential landslides under future rainfalls in the Fuhsing District of Taoyuan City,Taiwan,China.

Variable Stars in the 50BiN Open Cluster Survey.Ⅲ.NGC 884

Open clusters are the basic building blocks that serve as a laboratory for the study of young stellar populations in the Milky Way.Variable stars in open clusters provide a unique way to accurately probe the internal structure,temporal and dynamical evolutionary stages of individual stars and the host cluster.The most powerful tool for such studies is time-domain photometric observations.This paper follows the route of our previous work,concentrating on a photometric search for variable stars in NGC 884.The target cluster is the companion of NGC869,forming the well-known double cluster system that is gravitationally bound.From the observation run in 2016 November,a total of 9247 B-band CCD images and 8218Ⅴ-band CCD images were obtained.We detected a total of 15 stars with variability in visual brightness,including five Be stars,three eclipsing binaries,and seven of unknown types.Two new variable stars were discovered in this work.We also compared the variable star content of NGC 884 with its companion NGC 869.

An Artificial Neural Network-Based Response Surface Method for Reliability Analyses of c-φ Slopes with Spatially Variable Soil

This paper presents an artificial neural network（ANN）-based response surface method that can be used to predict the failure probability of c-φslopes with spatially variable soil.In this method,the Latin hypercube sampling technique is adopted to generate input datasets for establishing an ANN model;the random finite element method is then utilized to calculate the corresponding output datasets considering the spatial variability of soil properties;and finally,an ANN model is trained to construct the response surface of failure probability and obtain an approximate function that incorporates the relevant variables.The results of the illustrated example indicate that the proposed method provides credible and accurate estimations of failure probability.As a result,the obtained approximate function can be used as an alternative to the specific analysis process in c-φslope reliability analyses.

基于变权理论的露天矿边坡稳定性GRA-TOPSIS评价模型研究

为使露天矿边坡稳定性评估更加科学合理,进一步提高评估结果可靠性,迫切需对现有评价模型进行优化和改进。基于变权理论、灰色关联理论(GRA)和逼近理想解法(TOPSIS),提出了露天矿边坡稳定性改进GRA-TOPSIS评价模型。从地质、环境、工程等3个方面,选取了12个典型影响因素,构建了露天矿岩质边坡稳定性综合评价指标体系;运用变权理论确定指标权重,通过计算灰色关联贴近度,实现露天矿岩质边坡稳定性综合评价。以3座矿山(K1-K3)为例,验证评价模型的适用性。结果显示:3座露天矿边坡稳定性排序为K3>K2>K1,稳定性等级分别为Ⅲ级、Ⅱ级和Ⅱ级,与边坡实际相符;通过对比改进GRA-TOPSIS模型与单独使用GRA、TOPSIS模型以及其他模型的评价结果,验证了改进GRA-TOPSIS综合评价模型在露天矿边坡稳定性评估方面的准确性和优越性,体现了研究价值,可为露天矿边坡稳定性评估提供新思路。

Advanced reliability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils using multivariate adaptive regression splines

This study aims to extend the multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS)-Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method for reliability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils. This approach is used to explore the influences of the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties on the probability of failure(P_f) of the slopes. In the proposed approach, the relationship between the factor of safety and the soil strength parameters characterized with spatial variability is approximated by the MARS, with the aid of Karhunen-Loeve expansion. MCS is subsequently performed on the established MARS model to evaluate Pf.Finally, a nominally homogeneous cohesive-frictional slope and a heterogeneous cohesive slope, which are both characterized with different spatial variabilities, are utilized to illustrate the proposed approach.Results showed that the proposed approach can estimate the P_f of the slopes efficiently in spatially variable soils with sufficient accuracy. Moreover, the approach is relatively robust to the influence of different statistics of soil properties, thereby making it an effective and practical tool for addressing slope reliability problems concerning time-consuming deterministic stability models with low levels of P_f.Furthermore, disregarding the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties can overestimate or underestimate the P_f. Although the difference is small in general, the multiscale spatial variability of the soil properties must still be considered in the reliability analysis of heterogeneous slopes, especially for those highly related to cost effective and accurate designs.

Detecting Changes in Hydro-Climatic Variables during the Last Four Decades (1975-2014) on Downstream Kaduna River Catchment, Nigeria

This study aimed to detect trends in the long-term hydro-climatic series using non-parametric methods. The annual and seasonal linear trends of rainfall, temperature, runoff, water level and evaporation were analysed for stations in downstream Kaduna River Basin during 1975-2014. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s estimator of slope procedures were adopted to identify if there exists an increasing or decreasing trend with their statistical significance at 95% level of confidence. The datasets were checked to account for auto-correlation prior to determining trends using Mann-Kendall test. The existence of abrupt changes was detected by means of Cumulative Sum Charts and Bootstrapping analysis. The results of study indicated increasing trends for seasonal and annual temperature and runoff series. Water level and evaporation revealed statistically decreasing trends both on annual and seasonal periods. However, for the period 1975 to 2014 no significant distinctive trend was observed for rainfall at the investigated stations. Change-points in time series were identified in all the investigated hydro-climatic records for the sub-basin. Generally, the detection of the trend for hydro-climatic variables by Mann-Kendall test conforms to Sen’s test results. It is concluded that the basin is sensitive to climate variability and water stress impacts which will affect food security. So, it would be necessary to make adjustments in the adaptive water-use strategies being adopted at present in the catchment.

基于t-SNE-AMARS-MPM的空间变异性边坡可靠度分析及大变形破坏模式研究

在考虑参数空间变异性对大变形边坡可靠度评估的影响,特别是在小失效概率的情况下,传统分析方法常因耗时冗长或难以评估大变形失稳破坏而受限.针对这一问题,提出一种结合t分布-随机邻近嵌入、主动学习多元自适应回归样条法和物质点法的新方法,并深入探讨了t分布-随机邻近嵌入对代理模型的优化作用.首先,利用Cholesky分解法离散边坡参数随机场,并通过确定性分析获取训练样本.随后,采用主动学习函数优化代理模型,高效求解边坡安全系数并按升序排列.最后,使用物质点法依次模拟并获取失效样本.以一个两层不排水土坡为例,验证了该方法的有效性.结果表明,所提方法相较于传统随机物质点法,计算量仅为其1.64%,显著提高了计算效率.同时,通过对失效样本的深入剖析,识别出边坡失稳具有4种不同的破坏模式,这些破坏模式的演化过程与土体参数的空间分布紧密相关.尤为值得注意的是,多层渐进破坏模式作为其中破坏过程最为复杂的类型,其对周边环境的威胁尤为显著,需要重点防范.这为边坡工程的风险评估和加固提供了重要依据.

多层非均质边坡降雨入渗分析的改进Green-Ampt模型

边坡降雨入渗分析对于降雨型滑坡加固设计、治理和风险防控至关重要。经典的Green-Ampt模型参数虽然具有明确的物理意义,计算便捷,但是忽略了入渗区客观存在的过渡层,并且不能有效分析考虑土体渗透系数空间变异性的多层非均质边坡降雨入渗问题。为此,提出了一种适用于多层非均质边坡降雨入渗分析的改进Green-Ampt模型,考虑了降雨入渗的椭圆形过渡层,推导了不同降雨历时下边坡含水率分布情况。同时,以无限长边坡模型为例,通过4种常见的边坡工况验证了该模型的有效性,并进行了降雨入渗条件下非均质边坡稳定性分析。结果表明:对于设定的4种工况,提出的改进Green-Ampt模型计算的边坡体积含水量分布、安全系数和滑动面深度与Richards方程数值解吻合,而基于修正Green-Ampt模型计算的边坡体积含水量和滑动面分布存在偏差,边坡安全系数偏小。此外,基于提出的改进Green-Ampt模型能够准确识别最危险滑动面位置。研究成果可为多层非均质边坡降雨入渗分析及降雨型滑坡加固设计及风险防控提供理论参考。

Analytical solution for the time-fractional heat conduction equation in spherical coordinate system by the method of variable separation

In this paper,using the fractional Fourier law,we obtain the fractional heat conduction equation with a time-fractional derivative in the spherical coordinate system.The method of variable separation is used to solve the timefractional heat conduction equation.The Caputo fractional derivative of the order 0 〈 α≤ 1 is used.The solution is presented in terms of the Mittag-Leffler functions.Numerical results are illustrated graphically for various values of fractional derivative.

考虑参数空间变异性的高桩码头-岸坡体系可靠性分析

为进一步发展高桩码头-岸坡体系结构可靠性分析方法,基于KL-Copula互相关随机场模拟方法,综合考虑了岸坡土体参数空间变异性与其相关结构及大小的影响,提出一种岸坡-高桩码头体系互相关随机场模拟与可靠性求解数值实施流程,并基于PLAXIS计算程序平台,编写了高桩码头-岸坡体系互相关随机场模拟与可靠性分析外挂求解程序KLCPRP。在此基础上,进一步结合非侵入式随机分析方法进行相关算例分析,探讨不同岸坡强度参数Copula函数结构对互相关随机场模拟和高桩码头结构可靠性求解的影响规律。计算分析结果表明:不同Copula函数结构所对应模拟样本的线性相关系数、秩相关系数均存在一定差异性;对于有限实验数据情况,Gaussian Copula函数结构会导致随机场计算结果偏于保守;所提出的KL-Copula模拟随机场数值实施流程及对应外挂求解程序KLCPRP具有良好的精度和有效性,可为高桩码头-岸坡相互作用体系的相关工程设计及安全评价提供理论参考。

弹簧-坡面变摩擦阻尼器参数研究

本文是针对变摩擦阻尼器无系统研究方法及具体规范的支撑。通过理论推导得出单自由度体系在谐振激励下结构位移、耗能比计算公式并确定摩擦系数、坡面长度、坡度和碟簧刚度等为影响弹簧-坡面变摩擦阻尼器力学性能的重要参数,采用自编程序对弹簧-坡面变摩擦阻尼器进行参数分析,研究结果发现:(1)弹簧-坡面变摩擦阻尼器摩擦系数宜取0.5以上;(2)宜适当增加坡面长度且平面段长度宜小于结构屈服位移;(3)当弹簧-坡面变摩擦阻尼器耗能不足时,宜优先考虑增大坡度;(4)当增大坡度仍无法满足弹簧-坡面变摩擦阻尼器耗能需求时,可考虑增大碟簧刚度。研究结果为实际工程应用中弹簧-坡面变摩擦阻尼器参数确定提供参考。

G328: A Small-Amplitude Red Variable with a Period Near One Day

G328 = A65 = L3314 （V = 13.83, B - V = 1.91） is a field star in the direction of the globular cluster M4. If we take E（B - V） = 0.40, then its （B - V）0 = 1.51, corresponding to a spectral type of K5Ⅲ if it is a giant star; or of dM2 if it is a dwarf. Observations at both the MSSSO and Yunnan Observatory have shown that G328 is a new variable with peak to peak amplitude ≌ 0.05 mag in V. While it is not unusual for so red a star to be a variable, special attention must be paid to its short period of about one day. If the variability is due to pulsation, the spectral type and luminosity as well as effective temperature should be determined in order to compare it with Xiong＇s theory.

New Variable Stars Discovered as By-product of the Beijing Astronomical Observatory Supernova Survey

The Beijing Astronomical Observatory (BAO) 0.6 m telescope has been used for nearby supernova survey in more than 3000 fields, covering a total area of 235 deg2. More than 260000 CCD images have been collected since April 1996, with 45 supernovae discovered. We searched for variables in about 90000 images taken during 1996-1998. For the fields in which long period variables (LPVs) were discovered, we reduced further images taken from 1999 to 2000, for the period estimation. Among the 280000 stars selected from the survey fields, i.e., brighter than 18 mag, we discovered seven new LPVs and reconfirmed three known LPVs. Additionally, we found 146 variable star candidates, and reconfirmed about 20 previously known or suspected objects.

Associations between IL-1RN variable number of tandem repeat, IL-1β (-511) and IL-1β (+3954) gene polymorphisms and urolithiasis in Uighur children of China

Objective:Interleukin-1(IL-1)is a pro-inflammatory cytokine which may be related to urolithiasis.Genetic polymorphisms of the interleukin-1beta(IL-1β)have been proposed as markers for urolithiasis in some areas.Due to the high incidence of urolithiasis in Uighur children(Xinjiang,China)and existence of ethnic difference,our aim is to explore the potential of IL-1 gene polymorphisms and urolithiasis among these children.Methods:Genomic DNA extracted from peripheral blood of 115 patients and 98 controls were used for genotype polymorphisms analyses.IL-1 receptor antagonist(IL-1RN)gene variable number of tandem repeat(VNTR)gene polymorphisms were analyzed by PCR method.PCR-based restriction analysis was done for the IL-1β(-511)and IL-1β(+3954)gene polymorphisms by endonucleases Ava I and Taq I,respectively.The genotype distribution,allele frequencies,carriage rate,and haplotype frequencies were statistically analyzed.Results:No significant differences were observed in genotypic frequencies between pediatric urolithiasis patients and control group for IL-1RN gene(χ^(2)=1.906,p=0.605),IL-1β(-511)gene(χ^(2)=0.105,p=0.949),or IL-1β(+3954)gene(χ^(2)=3.635,p=0.169).There were yet no significant differences of the allele frequencies of IL-1RN VNTR gene(p=0.779),IL-1β(-511)gene(p=0.941),and IL-1β(+3954)gene(p=0.418)in the case and control groups,as well as the carriage rate and haplotype of them(all p>0.05).Conclusions:The associations between IL-1RN VNTR,IL-1β(-511)and IL-1β(+3954)genes polymorphisms and urolithiasis were not significant in Uighur children.The results need to be confirmed in studies with larger population sample size,as well as in other ethnic groups.

Physical parameters and orbital period variation of a newly discovered cataclysmic variable GSC 4560-02157

GSC 4560-02157 is a new eclipsing cataclysmic variable with an orbital period of 0.265359 days. By using the published V- and R-band data together with our observations, we discovered that the O - C curve of GSC 4560-02157 may show a cyclic variation with a period of 3.51 years and an amplitude of 1.40 min. If this variation is caused by a light travel-time effect via the existence of a third body, then its mass can be derived as M3 sin i1≈ 91.08 Mjup, and it should be a low-mass star. In addition, several physical parameters were measured. The color of the secondary star was determined to be V - R = 0.77（±0.03） which corresponds to a spectral type of K2-3. The secondary star＇s mass was estimated as M2 = 0.73（±0.02） Mo by combing the derived V - R value around phase 0 with the assumption that it obeys the mass-luminosity relation for main sequence stars. This mass is consistent with the mass-period relation for CV donor stars. For the white dwarf, the eclipse durations and contacts of the white dwarf yield an upper limit on the white dwarf＇s radius corresponding to a lower limit on mass of M1 ≈ 0.501 M⊙. The overestimated radius and previously published spectral data indicate that the boundary layer may have a very high temperature.

基于Chebyshev-Galerkin-KL展开的土质边坡稳定可靠度分析

提出了一种基于Chebyshev-Galerkin-KL(Karhunen-Loève)展开的新型随机场离散方法,推导了该方法的理论公式,并研发了基于Python语言的边坡滑体体积计算及其失效模式自动识别的高效程序。采用一个水位上涨时的非饱和土坡算例验证了方法的有效性。结果表明:所提随机场生成方法为求解第二类Fredholm积分方程提供了一种新思路,可准确表征岩土体参数的空间变异性。基于Python提出的边坡风险评估程序,与随机有限元计算过程不耦合,极大地提升了开展边坡风险评估的效率,从而增强预测滑坡致灾风险的时效性。此外,研究中非饱和土坡算例可靠度分析结果表明:水位上涨速度越慢,最大水位高度越高,该边坡的安全程度将越低。岩土体参数的竖向空间变异性对该算例边坡安全系数的影响甚微,但对滑体体积的影响较为显著。在对水位上升条件下的边坡开展可靠度分析时,应关注抗剪强度参数间的负相关性,否则将会低估边坡的安全程度。

基于K-L展开的断层-节理边坡随机有限元分析

土性参数的空间变异性和断层-节理的耦合作用,将显著影响边坡工程的稳定性分析。基于K-L展开方法模拟土体抗剪强度参数空间变异性,同时通过强度折减法计算节理岩体边坡的稳定性系数,提出了一种考虑土体参数空间变异性的边坡可靠度分析方法。探讨了土性参数的变异性及水平和垂直方向的相关距离对断层-节理边坡随机可靠度的影响。通过与已有研究中均质边坡稳定性对比分析,验证了模型的可行性,并结合现场实际工程进行分析。研究表明:断层-节理裂隙改变了边坡潜在滑移面产状,同时降低边坡的安全系数。边坡失效概率随着土性参数变异系数的增加而增大。忽略土性参数的变异性指标时,会高估边坡的安全系数指标,低估失效概率。土体竖向波动范围显著影响边坡的可靠度,断层-节理对于边坡稳定性的影响远大于土体波动范围。

Searching for Variable Stars in the Field of NGC 7789

We present the results of a time-series CCD photometric survey of variable stars in the field of the open cluster NGC 7789. In a field of about one degree centering on the cluster, a total of 28 new variable stars are discovered (14 W UMa systems, nine EA-type eclipsing binaries, one RR Lyr star, and four unclassified). In addition, we recovered 11 old variables previously discovered by other authors. Preliminary parameters are given for some of these variables.

The Fifth Edition of the General Catalogue of Variable Stars:experiences in the constellation Centaurus

We have recently announced that the General Catalogue of Variable Stars enters the stage of its fifth, purely electronic edition （GCVS 5.1）. We have included 1408 variable stars in the constellation Centaurus in this new version, GCVS 5.1. Working on this revision, we applied current possibilities from data mining, suggested new variability types for many variable stars and found new light elements for a large number of periodic variables. This paper describes the work completed during the preparation of GCVS 5.1 for Centaurus and discusses in detail a number of the most astrophysically significant cases.

An investigation of a magnetic cataclysmic variable with a period of 14.1 ks

Magnetic cataclysmic variables （CVs） contain a white dwarf （WD） with a magnetic field strong enough to control the accretion flow from a late type secondary. In this paper, we identify a magnetic CV （CXOGSG J215544.4＋380116） from the Chandra archive data. The X-ray light curves show a significant period of 14.1 ks, and the X-ray spectra can be described by a multi-temperature hot thermal plasma, suggesting the source is a magnetic CV. The broad dip in the X-ray light curve is due to the eclipse of the primary magnetic pole, and the additional dip in the bright phase of the soft and medium bands may be caused by the accretion stream crossing our line of sight to the primary pole. Follow-up optical spectra show features of an M2-M4 dwarf dominating the red band and a WD which is responsible for the weak upturn in the blue band. The mass （~ 0.4 34⊙） and radius （~0.4 R⊙） for the M dwarf are obtained using CV evolution models and empirical relations between the orbital period and the mass/radius. The estimated low X-ray luminosity and accretion rate may suggest the source is a low-accretion-rate polar. In addition, Very Large Array observations reveal a possible radio counterpart to the X-ray source, but with a low significance. Further radio observations with high quality are needed to confirm the radio counterpart and explore the properties of this binary system.