Temporal variation of gravity field prior to the Ludian Ms6.5 and Kangding Ms6.3 earthquakes

Using mobile gravity data from the central area of Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, the relationship between gravity variation and earthquakes was studied based on the Ludian Ms6.5 earthquake that occurred on August 3rd, 2014, and the Kangding Ms6.3 earthquake that occurred on November 22 nd, 2014; the mechanism of gravity variation was also explored. The results are as follows：（1） Prior to both earthquakes, gravity variation exhibited similar characteristics as those observed before both the Tangshan and Wenchuan earthquakes, in which typical precursor anomalies were positive gravity variation near the epicenter and the occurrence of a high-gravity-gradient zone across the epicenter prior to the earthquake.（2） A relatively accurate prediction of the occurrence locations of the two earthquakes was made by the Gravity Network Center of China（GNCC） based on these precursor anomalies. In the gravity study report on the 2014 earthquake trends submitted at the end of 2013, the Daofu-Shimian section at the junction of the Xianshuihe and Longmenshan fault zones was noted as an earthquake-risk region with a predicted magnitude of 6.5, which covered the epicenter of the Kangding Ms6.3 earthquake. In another report on earthquake trends in southwestern China submitted in mid-2014, the Lianfeng, Zhaotong fault zone was also classified as an earthquake-risk region with a magnitude of 6.0, and the central area of this region basically overlapped with the epicenter of the Ludian Ms6.5 earthquake.（3） The gravity variation characteristics are reasonably consistent with crustal movements, and deep material migration is likely the primary cause of gravity variation.

Summer Extreme Precipitation in the Key Region of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway

The Sichuan-Tibet Railway,mainly located in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,is affected by summertime extreme precipitation(SEP).Using daily rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data for the summers of 1979-2020,the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of SEP in the key region of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway(28°-33°N,90°-105°E,hereafter KR)are revealed,and the mechanism for SEP amount(SEPA)variation in the KR is investigated.The results show that SEPA in the KR contributes nearly 30%to the total summer precipitation.Regional differences are evident in SEP,justifying thresholds higher in the plateau-dominated central-western KR(CWKR)and lower in the basindominated eastern KR(EKR).In addition,SEP in the CWKR is less intense but more frequent than SEP in the EKR.During 1979-2020,the SEPA in the KR increased slightly while the SEPA in the CWKR increased significantly and peaked in the last decade.When anticyclonic circulation(AC)anomalies dominate the 500 hPa pattern over the Bay of Bengal and Mongolia,the southerly flow and cyclonic shear over the southeastern plateau will be strengthened,favoring more SEPA in the CWKR.When an AC anomaly dominates the 500 hPa pattern over the Bohai Sea,the low-level easterly wind over the basin will be strengthened,favoring more SEPA in the EKR.The strengthening of the ascent,water vapor convergence,and convective instability is conducive to more SEPA in the KR.Our results deepen the understanding of the characteristics and the physical mechanisms responsible for extreme precipitation in the KR.

Reservoir-induced landslides and risk control in Three Gorges Project on Yangtze River,China

The Three Gorges region in China was basically a geohazard-prone area prior to construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir （TGR）. After construction of the TGR, the water level was raised from 70 m to 175 m above sea level （ASL）, and annual reservoir regulation has caused a 30-m water level difference after impoundment of the TGR since September 2008. This paper first presents the spatiotemporal distribution of landslides in six periods of 175 m ASL trial impoundments from 2008 to 2014. The results show that the number of landslides sharply decreased from 273 at the initial stage to less than ten at the second stage of impoundment. Based on this, the reservoir-induced landslides in the TGR region can be roughly classified into five failure patterns, i.e. accumulation landslide, dip-slope landslide, reversed bedding landslide, rockfall, and karst breccia landslide. The accumulation landslides and dip-slope landslides account for more than 90%. Taking the Shuping accumulation landslide （a sliding mass volume of 20.7 × 106 m^3） in Zigui County and the Outang dip-slope landslide （a sliding mass volume of about 90 × 106 m^3） in Fengjie County as two typical cases, the mechanisms of reactivation of the two landslides are analyzed. The monitoring data and factor of safety （FOS） calculation show that the accumulation landslide is dominated by water level variation in the reservoir as most part of the mass body is under 175 m ASL, and the dip-slope landslide is controlled by the coupling effect of reservoir water level variation and precipitation as an extensive recharge area of rainfall from the rear and the front mass is below 175 m ASL. The characteristics of landslide-induced impulsive wave hazards after and before reservoir impoundment are studied, and the probability of occurrence of a landslide-induced impulsive wave hazard has increased in the reservoir region. Simulation results of the Ganjingzi landslide in Wushan County indicate the strong relationship between landslide-induced surge and water variation with high potential risk to shipping and residential areas. Regarding reservoir regulation in TGR when using a single index, i.e. 1-d water level variation, water resources are not well utilized, and there is also potential risk of disasters since 2008. In addition, various indices such as 1-d, 5-d, and 10-d water level variations are proposed for reservoir regulation. Finally, taking reservoir-induced landslides in June 2015 for example, the feasibility of the optimizing indices of water level variations is verified.