Comparison of semivariogram models for kriging monthly rainfall in eastern China

An exploratory spatial data analysis method(ESDA) was designed Apr.28,2002 for kriging monthly rainfall.Samples were monthly rainfall observed at 61 weather stations in eastern China over the period 1961-1998.Comparison of five semivariogram models(Spherical,Exponential,Linear,Gaussian and Rational Quadratic)indicated that kriging fulfills the objective of finding better ways to estimate interpolation weights and can provide error information for monthly rainfall interpolation.ESDA yielded the three most common forms of experimental semivariogram for monthly rainfall in the erea.All five models were appropriate for monthly rainflaa interpolation but under different circumstances.Spherical,Exponential and Linear models perform as smoothing interpolator of the data,whereas Gaussian and Rational Quadratic models serve as an exact interpolator.Spherical,Exponential and Linear models tend to underestimate the values,On the contrayr,Gaussian and Rational Quadratic models tend to overestimate the values.On the contrary,Gaussian and Rational Quadratic models tend to overestimate the values,Since the suitable model for a specific month usually is not unique and each model does not show any bias toward one or more specific months,an ESDA is recommended for a better interpolation result.

VARIOGRAM无偏估计类探讨

Variogram是空间数据分析中的一个重要参数。本文给出了 VARIOGRAM的一个无偏估计类。用之和传统估计作比较 。

A Method to Integrate Geological Knowledge in Variogram Modeling of Facies: A Case Study of a Fluvial Deltaic Reservoir

Variograms are important tools in the spatial distribution of facies and petrophysical properties. Due to the scarcity of subsurface well data, both spatially and quantity wise, variograms representing the data tend to have a lot of uncertainties. In order to reduce uncertainty in variograms, well data can be supplemented with the geological knowledge of the reservoir. This has been demonstrated by various authors in previous works. In their paper “Methodology to Incorporate Geological Knowledge in Variogram Modeling,” A. Bahar and M. Kelkar introduced a methodology to incorporate geological knowledge by studying the energy level of the depositional environment and grain texture. They used these two attributes to determine the relative distance of continuity of the lithofacies and incorporated it in the variogram modeling. In this paper, we introduce another attribute that determines the continuity of lithofacies;the accommodation or deposition space. For illustration purpose, two sets of facies models were constructed: The first using subsurface well data only and the second using well data and geological information of the reservoir. The two sets of models showed significant variation in the property distribution. The first set gave a more random appearance of the facies distribution while the second set gave a more realistic depiction of the depositional environment of the reservoir. We concluded that other than the grain size and the energy level of the depositional environment, another important determinant for continuity in variograms is the knowledge of the depositional space. Incorporating the knowledge of the depositional environment enabled a more accurate estimation of the variogram parameters. This resulted in an improvement in the accuracy of the model.

Imaging Analysis of Trabecular Bone Texture Based on the Initial Slope of Variogram of Ultra-Distal Radius Digital X-Ray Imaging: Effects on Bone Mineral Density and Age

Background: When applied to trabecular bone X-ray images, a method for analyzing trabecular bone texture based on the initial slope of variogram (ISV) was used to assess the trabecular bone health. Methodology: Data from more than two hundred subjects were retrospectively studied. For each subject, a DXA (GE Lunar Prodigy) scan of the forearm was performed, and bone mineral density (BMD) value was measured at the location of ultra-distal radius, X-ray digital image of the same forearm was taken on the same day, and ISV value over the same location of ultra-distal radius was calculated. Pearson’s correlation coefficients were calculated to examine the correlation between BMD and ISV of the trabecular bones located at the same ultra-distal radius. ISV values changed with subjects’ age were also reported. Results: The results show that ISV value was highly correlated with the DXA-measured BMD of the same trabecular bone located at the ultra-distal radius. The correlation coefficient between ISV and BMD with the 95% confident was 0.79 ± 0.09. They also demonstrated that the age-related changes in trabecular bone health and differentiated age patterns in males and females, respectively. The results showed that the decrease in BMD was accompanied by a decrease in the initial slope of variogram (ISV). Conclusions: This study suggests that ISV might be used to quantitatively evaluate trabecular health for osteoporosis and bone disease diagnosis.

ENHANCING GROUND RESOLUTION OF TM6 BASED ON MULTI-VARIATE REGRESSION MODEL AND SEMI-VARIOGRAM FUNCTION

It is well known that Landsat TM images are the most widely used remote sensing data in various fields.Usually,it has 7 different electromagnetic spectrum bands,among which the sixth one has much lower ground resolution compared with the other six bands.Nevertheless,it is useful in the study of rock spectrum reflection,geothermal resources exploration,etc.To improve the ground resolution of TM6 to the level as that of the other six bands is a problem .This paper presents an algorithm based on the combination of multivariate regression model with semivariogram function which can improve the ground resolution of TM6 by "fusing" the data of other six bands.It includes the following main steps: （1） testing the correlation between TM6 and one of TM15,7.If the correlation coefficient between TM6 and another one is greater than a given threshold value,then select the band to the regression analysis as an argument.（2） calculating the size of the template window within which some parameters needed by the regression model will be calculated; （3） replacing the original pixel values of TM6 by those obtained by regression analysis; （4） using image entropy as a measurement to evaluate the quality of the fused image of TM6.The basic mechanism of the algorithm is discussed and the V C ++ program for implementing this algorithm is also presented.A simple application example is given in the last part of this paper,showing the effectiveness of the algorithm.

A Yield Mapping Procedure Based on Robust Fitting Paraboloid Cones on Moving Elliptical Neighborhoods and the Determination of Their Size Using a Robust Variogram

The yield map is generated by fitting the yield surface shape of yield monitor data mainly using paraboloid cones on floating neighborhoods. Each yield map value is determined by the fit of such a cone on an elliptical neighborhood that is wider across the harvest tracks than it is along them. The coefficients of regression for modeling the paraboloid cones and the scale parameter are estimated using robust weighted M-estimators where the weights decrease quadratically from 1 in the middle to zero at the border of the selected neighborhood. The robust way of estimating the model parameters supersedes a procedure for detecting outliers. For a given neighborhood shape, this yield mapping method is implemented by the Fortran program paraboloidmapping.exe, which can be downloaded from the web. The size of the selected neighborhood is considered appropriate if the variance of the yield map values equals the variance of the true yields, which is the difference between the variance of the raw yield data and the error variance of the yield monitor. It is estimated using a robust variogram on data that have not had the trend removed.

A flexible lag definition for experimental variogram calculation

推断通常在 geostatistics 使用的试验性的 variogram 依靠 method-of-moments 途径。理想地，使用计算试验性的 variogram 的可得到的数据集应该从一个常规模式被拉。然而，在实践，可得到的数据集典型地在一个稀少的模式上被取样在不规则地 spaced 地点。因此， variogram 云的某 binning 被要求获得试验性的 variogram 的公平估计。由于常规 binning variogram 数据对组织取决于象主要各向异性的方向和 lag 向量的一个常规定义那样的参数。这些参数不基于在 variogram 云，但是在任意地被预先规定的它的一个片断上的 variogram 数据对的配置。因此，因为箱的严格的配置，常规试验性的 variogram 评价途径在 variogram 云上被偏导。在这份报纸，估计试验性的 variograms 的一个新方法被建议。落后向量和他们的忍耐在 variogram 云从信息在建议方法被决定：他们没被任何预定义的方向影响。建议方法论是一有根据，适用并且为用不规则地取样的数据集的试验性的 variogram 计算的 easy-to-automate 途径。从传统的途径的到那些的从新方法的结果的比较是很令人鼓舞的。

Applications of variogram modeling to electrical resistivity data for the occurrence and distribution of saline groundwater in Domail Plain,northwestern Himalayan fold and thrust belt,Pakistan

This paper studies electrical resistivity dataset acquired for a groundwater study in the Domail Plain in the northwestern Himalayan section of Pakistan. Through a combination of geostatistical analysis,geophysical inversion and visualization techniques,it is possible to re-model and visualize the single dimension resistivity data into 2D and 3D space.The variogram models are utilized to extend the interpretation of the data and to distinguish individual lithologic units and the occurrence of saline water within the subsurface. The resistivity data has been calibrated with the lithological logs taken from the available boreholes. As such the alluvial system of the Domail Plain has formed during episodes of local tectonic activity with fluvial erosion and depositionyielding coarse sediments with high electrical resistivities near to the mountain ranges and finer sediments with medium to low electrical resistivities which tend to settle in the basin center. Thus a change is depositional setting happened from basin lacustrine environment to flash flooding during the Himalayan orogeny. The occurrence of rock salt in the northern mountains has imparted a great influence on the groundwater quality of the study area. The salt is dissolved by water which infiltrates into the subsurface through the water channels. Variogram aided gridding of resistivity data helps to identify the occurrence and distribution of saline water in the subsurface.

Characterizing Landscape Spatial Heterogeneity in Multisensor Images with Variogram Models

Most evaluation of the consistency of multisensor images have focused on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) products for natural landscapes, often neglecting less vegetated urban landscapes. This gap has been filled through quantifying and evaluating spatial heterogeneity of urban and natural landscapes from QuickBird, Satellite pour l'observation de la Terre(SPOT), Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer(ASTER) and Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM) images with variogram analysis. Instead of a logarithmic relationship with pixel size observed in the corresponding aggregated images, the spatial variability decayed and the spatial structures decomposed more slowly and complexly with spatial resolution for real multisensor images. As the spatial resolution increased, the proportion of spatial variability of the smaller spatial structure decreased quickly and only a larger spatial structure was observed at very coarse scales. Compared with visible band, greater spatial variability was observed in near infrared band for both densely and less densely vegetated landscapes. The influence of image size on spatial heterogeneity was highly dependent on whether the empirical semivariogram reached its sill within the original image size. When the empirical semivariogram did not reach its sill at the original observation scale, spatial variability and mean characteristic length scale would increase with image size; otherwise they might decrease. This study could provide new insights into the knowledge of spatial heterogeneity in real multisensor images with consideration of their nominal spatial resolution, image size and spectral bands.

基于Kriging的多阶段加点策略及离心叶轮汽蚀优化

为了实现燃油离心泵汽蚀特性智能优化设计,提出一种基于Kriging的多阶段主动学习加点策略。重点是建立3个阶段的加点策略,并明确各阶段加点策略的切换判据。基于一维函数、多维函数等测试函数,与单加点策略对比以验证多阶段主动学习加点策略的有效性。进而,以某型燃油离心泵为例,完成所提出加点策略在其汽蚀特性的优化应用。测试函数算例结果表明:多阶段主动学习加点策略达到相同精度所需时间稍长于单MSE策略,优于单EI策略与单CV策略;但相比单MSE策略,全局最优解局部精度更高。离心泵汽蚀特性优化结果表明:优化泵进口处压力损失降低且进口处回流、旋涡等局部流动减弱,蜗壳内压力梯度增大且其出口处旋涡流动减弱;优化泵的汽蚀系数提高30.83%,汽蚀余量下降9.14%,汽蚀比转数下降7.17%,泵内气体含量下降17.27%,所提出的方法有效地提高了离心泵的抗汽蚀性能。

基于多峰优化Kriging模型与距离相关系数的高速列车动力学参数多输出灵敏度分析

高速列车动力学参数较多,有多个动力学性能的评价指标。综合考虑这些动力学指标进行参数灵敏度分析,对高速列车动力学参数的恰当匹配具有重要意义。现有的单输出灵敏度分析技术难以准确度量参数对车辆动力学综合性能的影响。为避免这一缺陷,本文引入了一种新的基于距离相关系数的多输出灵敏度分析技术。该方法通过求解单个输入与多个输出变量之间的距离相关系数,实现多输出全局灵敏度分析的目的。为提高灵敏度分析的效率,建立了多个动力学指标与输入参数的Kriging模型;为提高近似模型的精度,引入了一种新颖的多峰优化算法对Kriging模型的超参数进行全局寻优。与传统单目标智能优化算法不同,该优化算法通过引入种群差异指标,将单目标优化问题转化为双目标优化问题,从而增加了子代种群的多样性,避免了传统优化算法易于陷入局部最优解的问题。基于所提方法,以和谐号动车组动车为例,研究了多个动力学指标的多输出全局灵敏度。结果表明:由于增强了种群多样性,所提的超参数优化方法对Kriging模型精度和稳定性提升效果明显;基于距离相关系数的灵敏度分析方法能够更加合理地识别出对车辆动力学综合性能影响较大的参数,排除几乎没有影响的参数。

应用时空复合趋势面Kriging方法插值地表沉降

通过布设监测点可反映地表沉降变化趋势,确保施工和运营期间安全,但沉降监测点数量有限,且易受施工作业、天气等因素干扰导致数据缺失或污染,因此需对监测区域数据进行插值处理。针对采用传统地统计插值方法估计地铁地表沉降趋势精度较低的问题,提出了一种基于时空复合趋势面的Kriging插值方法。以乌鲁木齐地铁3号线2017年6月24日—9月3日共15期地铁地表沉降观测值为实验数据,分别采用两种方法对沉降监测点缺失数据进行插补。结果表明,相较于传统方法,基于时空复合趋势面的Kriging插值方法的拟合精度更高,RMSE可降低约35%。

基于Kriging代理模型的无刷双馈发电机转子优化设计

无刷双馈发电机由于其自身没有电刷、滑环等结构特点,因此被认为是最有希望成为风力发电系统的主流发电机之一。无刷双馈发电机是依靠转子的磁场调制机理实现机电能量转换,其转子的耦合能力是影响电机性能的重要因素。因此本文提出了一种串联笼条辅助磁障转子的新型转子结构,分析了该种转子不同结构参数对电机性能的影响,并提出一种基于Kriging代理模型的多目标差分进化算法的无刷双馈发电机转子优化设计方法。首先建立该种新型转子的参数化模型,通过Kriging代理模型建立优化变量与优化目标之间的响应关系,再利用多目标差分进化算法找到最优的变量组合,最后通过有限元仿真对电机的性能进行分析。

基于Kriging模型的多次尝试差分进化贝叶斯有限元模型修正

标准差分进化自适应Metropolis(differential evolution adaptive Metropolis,DREAM)算法需进行多条马氏链并行计算,存在收敛效率低和计算成本高的问题。为此,提出一种基于Kriging模型的多次尝试差分进化贝叶斯有限元模型修正(multiple-try differential evolution adaptive Metropolis with“ZS”,MT-DREAM(ZS))框架。该框架在DREAM的基础上引入历史向量差分采样、斯诺克更新以及多次尝试Metropolis抽样,并利用Kriging模型代替有限元模型进行随机抽样,实现利用极少数并行链便可快速探索多维修正参数后验分布。利用固结钢板梁模型试验,比较了DREAM和MT-DREAM(ZS)的修正效果。结果表明:MT-DREAM(ZS)可实现马尔科夫链的快速收敛,其收敛效率较DREAM提升了3.42倍,且修正结果精度和稳定性有提升;Kriging模型可大幅度降低计算成本。所提框架为解决多参数不确定模型修正中的收敛效率低和计算成本高等问题提供了一种新思路。

基于Kriging插值代理模型的轴流式止回阀多目标优化

基于Kriging插值代理模型,对轴流式止回阀的各项性能进行综合优化,具体的优化目标为:降低正向流阻;减小阀芯振动;提升止回性能。通过试验设计方案找到影响轴流式止回阀正向流阻的主要结构参数因素,并以其作为优化对象,通过Kriging插值法拟合主要结构参数对应的性能样本点,在保证拟合精度的情况下,使用NSGA-II遗传算法同时对3个主要结构参数进行多目标优化,得到了三目标Pareto前沿,经过权衡不同因素对性能指标的影响大小,最终得到了综合性能最优的结构参数为:阀瓣丰满度系数α_(1)=2.199,阀芯长度L=386.322 mm,阀芯半径R=113.997 mm。其对应的止回阀性能为:正向出口流量Q=161.839 kg/s,正向出口流速v=3.30235 m/s,止回阀进口压力p=97632.2287 Pa。相比优化之前,阀门正向流阻减小了1.2%,阀芯振动降低了0.24%,止回性能提升了2.3%。

基于Kriging模型与FORM的钢板组合梁桥结构优化设计

考虑材料参数的不确定性以及设计变量多重约束条件的影响,提出了基于可靠性分析的钢板组合梁桥结构优化设计方法。首先,利用拉丁超立方试验设计(Latin hypercube design,LHD)构建试验组合方案,并通过有限元分析获取试验设计组合下的最大挠度响应值。基于获取的训练样本,构建能够表征结构最大挠度值与随机输入之间映射关系的Kriging代理模型。基于建立的代理模型,以钢结构截面积最小化为目标函数,建立符合规范要求与可靠度约束的优化数学模型,并采用一阶可靠性方法(first order reliability method,FORM),实现设计变量优化。通过比较具有相同设计变量上限,但下限分别为初始值的80%和70%两种优化设计方案,评估了两者在相同阈值以及不同阈值下设计变量的优化结果。最后对方案二在阈值为17 mm下的优化结果进行极限状态验算。结果表明:两个优化设计方案在阈值为17 mm下的优化结果更具合理性,并且方案二在同一阈值下具有更高的优化程度。随着阈值增加,优化程度增加,且腹板高度在较大阈值下对结果影响更大,而翼缘宽度在较小阈值下影响更大。

一种基于自适应Kriging集成模型的结构可靠性分析方法

基于Kriging模型的复杂结构可靠性分析结果高度依赖于Kriging模型的拟合精度,在构建Kriging模型的过程中,不同相关函数和回归函数的选择均会影响模型精度。为解决模型的不确定性对可靠性分析结果的影响,同时兼顾计算效率和精度,基于Kriging模型和蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS)方法,提出了一种结合自适应集成策略和主动学习函数的结构可靠度计算方法。该方法考虑Kriging模型的建模不确定性,将多种Kriging模型组合,构建了一种综合考虑样本点贡献和样本点距离的主动学习函数,通过主动学习函数迭代更新集成Kriging模型直至满足收敛条件,最后通过构建的集成Kriging模型和MCS方法进行结构可靠性分析。数值算例和工程算例结果验证了所提方法的有效性,该方法与其他主要方法相比稳健性更好,在保证计算精度的同时,计算效率更高。

基于主动学习Kriging模型的改进一次可靠度方法

结构可靠度分析的一次可靠度方法在每一迭代中均涉及迭代点的函数值及梯度值计算,但后续迭代过程不能充分利用前期迭代过程中迭代点的计算结果,因此计算效率有待于进一步提升。考虑到迭代后期迭代点在局部区域内波动,若以已有迭代结果为基础建立代理模型进行迭代后期迭代点的函数值及梯度值计算将有助于改善一次可靠度方法的计算效率。为此,该文在将一次可靠度方法的迭代过程分为全局搜索阶段与局部搜索阶段的基础上,针对两个阶段分别采用不同的计算策略,即全局搜索阶段沿用已有一次可靠度方法的迭代过程,在局部搜索阶段则基于全局搜索阶段的迭代结果建立Kriging模型,并引入可评估Kriging模型在迭代点处精度的学习函数,实现局部搜索阶段迭代点的高效率计算,从而提出了具有更高计算效率的改进一次可靠度方法。数值算例和工程算例的计算结果表明建议方法在保持精度不变的情况下,可显著提高一次可靠度方法的计算效率。

基于自适应Kriging模型的双螺旋轴可靠性分析

双螺旋轴是高速水稻插秧机的关键部分,其回转槽面在强轴向力作用下容易破坏失效,因此对双螺旋轴进行可靠性分析十分重要.针对传统方法获得其可靠度耗资大、时间长的问题,采用自适应Kriging模型结合Monte Carlo模拟的可靠性分析方法(AK-MCS)对双螺旋轴进行可靠性分析,以减少计算成本、提高计算效率.根据双螺旋轴的工况条件,考虑材料密度、工作载荷、工作温度3个参数对其所受挤压应力的影响,进行可靠性分析.分析结果表明:在许用应力值为613.21 MPa的条件下,计算得出双螺旋轴的可靠度为0.9986.与单一的Monte Carlo模拟法进行对比,本文提出的评估方法在仿真效率上有明显优势,为双螺旋轴可靠性分析提供了一种思路.