In this paper,we present a new method of intelligent back analysis(IBA)using grey Verhulst model(GVM)to identify geotechnical parameters of rock mass surrounding tunnel,and validate it via a test for a main openings o...In this paper,we present a new method of intelligent back analysis(IBA)using grey Verhulst model(GVM)to identify geotechnical parameters of rock mass surrounding tunnel,and validate it via a test for a main openings of−600 m level in Coal Mine“6.13”,Democratic People's Republic of Korea.The displacement components used for back analysis are the crown settlement and sidewalls convergence monitored at the end of the openings excavation,and the final closures predicted by GVM.The non-linear relation between displacements and back analysis parameters was obtained by artificial neural network(ANN)and Burger-creep viscoplastic(CVISC)model of FLAC3D.Then,the optimal parameters were determined for rock mass surrounding tunnel by genetic algorithm(GA)with both groups of measured displacements at the end of the final excavation and closures predicted by GVM.The maximum absolute error(MAE)and standard deviation(Std)between calculated displacements by numerical simulation with back analysis parameters and in situ ones were less than 6 and 2 mm,respectively.Therefore,it was found that the proposed method could be successfully applied to determining design parameters and stability for tunnels and underground cavities,as well as mine openings and stopes.展开更多
The variation of fuel loads after a fire for three forest types, phododendron -Larix gmetinii forest, herb--Larix gmelinii forest and herb--Betula plalyphlla forest , in the northern forest area of Daxing’anling regi...The variation of fuel loads after a fire for three forest types, phododendron -Larix gmetinii forest, herb--Larix gmelinii forest and herb--Betula plalyphlla forest , in the northern forest area of Daxing’anling region was discussed. The dynamic models were developed by gray theory for estimating the fuels loads of arbor- shrub, herbs’ grass, litter, and semi-decomposed litter, inflamma ble fuel and the total fuels in each forest type. After a fire, the inflammabIe fuel loads in phododendron-- Larix gmelinii forest and in the herb- - Betula platyphlla fores was estimated at 10.958 t/hm2and 10.473 t/hm2 respectively’ by 13 years later. and that was 12.297 t/hm 2 in herb--Larix gmeliniiforest by 7 years later.. It was predicated that a big fire may occur after 10 years based on inflammable fuel biomass accumulated.展开更多
To overcome the deficiencies of the existing Verhulst GM(1,1) model, based on the existing grey theory, a non-equal-interval direct optimum Verhulst GM(1,1) model is built which chooses a modified n-th component x(n) ...To overcome the deficiencies of the existing Verhulst GM(1,1) model, based on the existing grey theory, a non-equal-interval direct optimum Verhulst GM(1,1) model is built which chooses a modified n-th component x(n) of X(0) as the starting condition of the grey differential model. It optimizes a modified β value and the background value, and takes two times fitting optimization. The new model extends equal intervals to non-equal-intervals and is suitable for general data modelling and estimating parameters of the direct Verhulst GM(1,1). The new model does not need to pre-process the primitive data, nor accumulate generating operation (AGO) and inverse accumulated generating operation (IAGO). It is not only suitable for equal interval data modelling, but also for non-equal interval data modelling. As the new information is fully used and two times fitting optimization is taken, the fitting accuracy is the highest in all existing models. The example shows that the new model is simple and practical. The new model is worth expanding on and applying in data processing or on-line monitoring for tests, social sciences and other engineering sciences.展开更多
Uncertainties existing in the process of dam deformation negatively influence deformation prediction. However, existing deformation pre- diction models seldom consider uncertainties. In this study, a cloud-Verhulst hy...Uncertainties existing in the process of dam deformation negatively influence deformation prediction. However, existing deformation pre- diction models seldom consider uncertainties. In this study, a cloud-Verhulst hybrid prediction model was established by combing a cloud model with the Verhulst model. The expectation, one of the cloud characteristic parameters, was obtained using the Verhulst model, and the other two cloud characteristic parameters, entropy and hyper-entropy, were calculated by introducing inertia weight. The hybrid prediction model was used to predict the dam deformation in a hydroelectric project. Comparison of the prediction results of the hybrid prediction model with those of a traditional statistical model and the monitoring values shows that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy than the traditional sta- tistical model. It provides a new approach to predicting dam deformation under uncertain conditions.展开更多
Network security situation is a hot research topic in the field of network security. Whole situation awareness includes the current situation evaluation and the future situation prediction. However, the now-existing r...Network security situation is a hot research topic in the field of network security. Whole situation awareness includes the current situation evaluation and the future situation prediction. However, the now-existing research focuses on the current situation evaluation, and seldom discusses the future prediction. Based on the historical research, an improved grey Verhulst model is put forward to predict the future situation. Aiming at the shortages in the prediction based on traditional Verhulst model, the adaptive grey parameters and equal- dimensions grey filling methods are proposed to improve the precision. The simulation results prove that the scheme is efficient and applicable.展开更多
基金Project(32-41)supported by the National Science and Technical Development Foundation of DPR of Korea。
文摘In this paper,we present a new method of intelligent back analysis(IBA)using grey Verhulst model(GVM)to identify geotechnical parameters of rock mass surrounding tunnel,and validate it via a test for a main openings of−600 m level in Coal Mine“6.13”,Democratic People's Republic of Korea.The displacement components used for back analysis are the crown settlement and sidewalls convergence monitored at the end of the openings excavation,and the final closures predicted by GVM.The non-linear relation between displacements and back analysis parameters was obtained by artificial neural network(ANN)and Burger-creep viscoplastic(CVISC)model of FLAC3D.Then,the optimal parameters were determined for rock mass surrounding tunnel by genetic algorithm(GA)with both groups of measured displacements at the end of the final excavation and closures predicted by GVM.The maximum absolute error(MAE)and standard deviation(Std)between calculated displacements by numerical simulation with back analysis parameters and in situ ones were less than 6 and 2 mm,respectively.Therefore,it was found that the proposed method could be successfully applied to determining design parameters and stability for tunnels and underground cavities,as well as mine openings and stopes.
文摘The variation of fuel loads after a fire for three forest types, phododendron -Larix gmetinii forest, herb--Larix gmelinii forest and herb--Betula plalyphlla forest , in the northern forest area of Daxing’anling region was discussed. The dynamic models were developed by gray theory for estimating the fuels loads of arbor- shrub, herbs’ grass, litter, and semi-decomposed litter, inflamma ble fuel and the total fuels in each forest type. After a fire, the inflammabIe fuel loads in phododendron-- Larix gmelinii forest and in the herb- - Betula platyphlla fores was estimated at 10.958 t/hm2and 10.473 t/hm2 respectively’ by 13 years later. and that was 12.297 t/hm 2 in herb--Larix gmeliniiforest by 7 years later.. It was predicated that a big fire may occur after 10 years based on inflammable fuel biomass accumulated.
基金The 11th Five-Year Plan for Key Constructing Academic Subject of Hunan Province(No.XJT2006180)Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (No.07JJ3093)Hunan Province Foundation Research Program (No.2007FJ3030,2007GK3058)
文摘To overcome the deficiencies of the existing Verhulst GM(1,1) model, based on the existing grey theory, a non-equal-interval direct optimum Verhulst GM(1,1) model is built which chooses a modified n-th component x(n) of X(0) as the starting condition of the grey differential model. It optimizes a modified β value and the background value, and takes two times fitting optimization. The new model extends equal intervals to non-equal-intervals and is suitable for general data modelling and estimating parameters of the direct Verhulst GM(1,1). The new model does not need to pre-process the primitive data, nor accumulate generating operation (AGO) and inverse accumulated generating operation (IAGO). It is not only suitable for equal interval data modelling, but also for non-equal interval data modelling. As the new information is fully used and two times fitting optimization is taken, the fitting accuracy is the highest in all existing models. The example shows that the new model is simple and practical. The new model is worth expanding on and applying in data processing or on-line monitoring for tests, social sciences and other engineering sciences.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51379162)the Water Conservancy Science and Technology Innovation Project of Guangdong Province(Grant No.2016-06)
文摘Uncertainties existing in the process of dam deformation negatively influence deformation prediction. However, existing deformation pre- diction models seldom consider uncertainties. In this study, a cloud-Verhulst hybrid prediction model was established by combing a cloud model with the Verhulst model. The expectation, one of the cloud characteristic parameters, was obtained using the Verhulst model, and the other two cloud characteristic parameters, entropy and hyper-entropy, were calculated by introducing inertia weight. The hybrid prediction model was used to predict the dam deformation in a hydroelectric project. Comparison of the prediction results of the hybrid prediction model with those of a traditional statistical model and the monitoring values shows that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy than the traditional sta- tistical model. It provides a new approach to predicting dam deformation under uncertain conditions.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.60605019)
文摘Network security situation is a hot research topic in the field of network security. Whole situation awareness includes the current situation evaluation and the future situation prediction. However, the now-existing research focuses on the current situation evaluation, and seldom discusses the future prediction. Based on the historical research, an improved grey Verhulst model is put forward to predict the future situation. Aiming at the shortages in the prediction based on traditional Verhulst model, the adaptive grey parameters and equal- dimensions grey filling methods are proposed to improve the precision. The simulation results prove that the scheme is efficient and applicable.
