Evaluating Watershed Vulnerability in Bernalillo County, New Mexico Using Expert Testimony, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, and GIS

Geographic Information System (GIS) software was used to create a watershed vulnerability model for Bernalillo County, New Mexico. Watershed vulnerability was investigated as a function of soil erosion and infiltration criteria: precipitation, land slope, soil erodibility (K-factor), vegetation cover (NDVI), land use, drainage density, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and hydrologic soil group. Respective criteria weights were derived using a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) supported by expert opinion. A survey of 10 experts, representing New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology (NMT), the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources (NMBGMR), and the United States Geologic Survey (USGS), provided model input data for an integrated pair-wise comparison matrix for soil erosion and for infiltration. Individual criteria weights were determined by decomposing the respective fuzzy synthetic extent matrix using the centroid method. GIS layers were then combined based on criteria weights to produce maps of soil erosion potential and infiltration potential. A composite watershed vulnerability map was generated by equal weighting of each input map. Model results were categorized into five vulnerability categories: not vulnerable (N), slightly vulnerable (SV), moderately vulnerable (MV), highly vulnerable (HV), and extremely vulnerable (EV). The resulting FAHP/GIS model was used to generate a watershed vulnerability map of discrete areas in Bernalillo County, which may be vulnerable to stormwater run-off events and soil erosion. Such high volume run-off events can cause erosion damage to property and infrastructure. Alternatively, in areas near urban development, stormwater run-off may contribute non-point-source pollutant contamination of New Mexico’s surface water resources. The most problematic areas in Bernalillo County are present in the Eastern and Northwestern portions. However, less than 1% of the total area lies within the lowest and highest vulnerability categories with the majority centered around moderate vulnerability. The results of the model were compared with a previously published crisp AHP method. Both methods showed similar regional vulnerability trends. This MCDS/GIS approach is intended to provide support to local governments and decision makers in selection of suitable structural or nonstructural stormwater control measures.

Evaluation on Ecological Vulnerability of the Vegetation in the Subei Lake Watershed Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

[ Objective] The research aimed to evaluate ecological vulnerability of the vegetation in the Subei Lake watershed based on analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. [ Method] From actual situation of the vegetation ecology in the Subei Lake watershed, by the established evaluation index system of vegetation ecology, based on AHP, indicator weight at each layer was determined. Comprehensive index method was used to calculate ecological fragility degree of the vegetation in each evaluation unit to evaluate ecological vulnerability of the vegetation. [ Result] Ecological vulnera- bility of the vegetation was divided into four levels, such as extremely fragile, highly fragile, moderately fragile and lowly fragile in the Subei Lake watershed. The extremely fragile area, where buried depth of the groundwater level was generally less than 1.0 meter, distributed in beach zones near the Subei Lake, and its relationship between vegetation and groundwater was close. The lowly fragile areas scattered in the ridge zone around the Subei Lake watershed, where buried depth of the groundwater level was 10.0 -40.0 meters, and their relationship between vegetation growth and groundwater depth was not obvious. Buried depth of groundwater had the most sensitive influence on vegetation ecology, and it was the key factor between utilization of groundwater resources and eco-environment protection in the study area. E Conclusion] The researches provided scientific evidence for regional eco-environment protection, rational development and utilization of water resources, and coordinated development of economy and society.

基于直觉模糊环境的海上风机选型

选择合适的海上风力发电机机型对海上风电场的长期高效运行起着至关重要的作用。针对决策者在风机选型决策过程中存在不确定性和主观偏好等问题,提出一种改进的多准则决策(multi-criteria decision making, MCDM)框架及方法:在权重求解算法中将群体决策和直觉模糊数与层次分析法相结合,提出群体直觉模糊层次分析法(group intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, GIAHP)计算指标权重;在备选方案排序算法中将余弦距离引入接近理想点法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution, TOPSIS),提出多距离TOPSIS确定备选方案排序。最后以山东省海上风电场风机选型为例,并通过敏感性分析验证框架及方法的鲁棒性。该框架及方法为中国海上风电场风机选型提供理论依据,可确保海上风电场长期稳定运行。

基于SRP模型的新安江流域生态脆弱性评价

开展生态脆弱性与流域生态补偿机制研究,对环境保护与生态修复具有重要意义。选取反映流域生态环境的13个指标,构建生态敏感性-生态恢复力-生态压力度模型(SRP),运用层次分析法并结合专家打分对指标权重进行赋值,在500 m×500 m的栅格尺度下叠加生态红线的划定,对新安江流域2015年和2020年的生态脆弱性进行评价,可为区域生态保护与修复提出对策和建议。结果表明:(1)新安江流域整体生态状况良好,极度脆弱区略高于1%,且与人类活动强度的空间耦合性较好,呈现由中部核心区向周围逐渐衰减的态势;(2)5年间流域生态敏感性向好发展,生态恢复力略有下降,生态压力度维持在稳定态势,整体生态脆弱性结构稳定,脆弱性强度值虽下降了0.12,但86.6%区域的脆弱性等级未发生变化;(3)县域尺度上,脆弱性变化出现“马太效应”,生态环境较脆弱的屯溪区、徽州区和黟县生态脆弱性上升,而生态环境较好的祁门县、休宁县和黄山区生态脆弱性下降;(4)流域生态红线保护区受人类影响较小,基本无极度脆弱区,但仍需加大水源涵养功能保护区的维护力度。

基于概率神经网络和层次分析法的硐室群施工风险评估

地下硐室群施工风险研究尚处于起步阶段,为快速准确评判风险因素,预防施工安全事故,利用概率神经网络(PNN)和层次分析法(AHP)建立风险评估模型,并研发硐室群施工风险评估软件。通过统计分析硐室群施工风险因素,设置工程地质、自然、设计施工和管理4个一级风险因素,23个风险控制指标,建立针对硐室群施工的风险指标体系。收集典型样本数据后,基于PNN对施工风险等级进行评判,同时采用AHP定量分析风险因素权重,迅速捕捉风险点,采取风险控制措施并优化施工方案。运用研发软件对重庆轨道交通18号线歇台子站硐室群施工进行风险评价,得到风险概率等级为Ⅳ,在施工过程中需要重点监测和控制地下水、围岩等级和支护及时性等带来的影响,实例评价结果与现场情况相吻合,验证了该评估软件的有效性和实用性。研究表明:针对硐室群施工建立的指标体系和评估方法能有效预测风险级别,实时指导施工过程,确保地下硐室群施工安全。

石化产业基地生态脆弱性评价研究

绿色高效的石化产业基地是生态经济协调发展的重要内容。基于石化产业基地和生态环境相关特性,联合熵权法、模糊层次分析法、德尔菲专家打分法,构建石化产业基地生态环境脆弱性评价指标体系及模型。考虑到评价过程中的不确定性因素,构建基于蒙特卡洛模拟法的生态脆弱性评价模型,并选取连云港石化产业基地进行实证分析,结果表明:“十三五”期间,连云港石化产业基地生态环境脆弱性水平呈递减趋势,计及随机因素的评价模型表现出较强的预测能力,所构建指标体系的科学性得以验证,可为改善我国特殊区域生态环境脆弱性提供参考。

迭置指数法在工业园区地下水污染风险评价中的应用

工业园区作为重要的地下水污染源,以园区为研究对象开展地下水污染风险评价对推进地下水污染防治工作具有重要意义,以四川省西南某工业园区为例,采用迭置指数法对园区地下水污染风险进行评价,并利用地下水硝酸盐浓度与地下水污染风险等级之间的Spearman等级相关系数,对评价结果进行验证。研究结果表明:研究区地下水污染风险整体较低,大部分区域为中、低风险区,高风险区域占比3.24%,在研究区中部、北部零星分布。Spearman等级相关系数ρ=0.81,相关性显著,表明迭置指数法可应用于工业园区地下水污染评价之中。研究结果为降低工业园区地下水污染风险和园区地下水污染防治工作提供了科学依据。

基于SRP理论框架的山东省生态脆弱性评价

本研究针对黄河下游山东省的生态脆弱性问题开展研究,以敏感性-恢复力-压力度(SRP)概念模型为框架构建了包含16个指标的山东省生态脆弱性评价指标体系,开展高空间分辨的区域生态脆弱性评价,并采用区间层次分析法进行指标权重赋值以体现决策者不确定性。结果表明:1)影响山东省生态脆弱性指数程度的要素从高到低排序依次是生态压力度、生态恢复力、生态敏感性;2)山东省的生态脆弱性空间分布上呈现中部及沿海高、西南低的态势;生态脆弱性以微度脆弱为主,约占全省总面积的66%;3)山东省16个市区中,济南、淄博、青岛的重度和极度脆弱区较多,尤其是青岛市极度脆弱区面积比例最高,约为5%,相比之下西部的聊城和德州市生态脆弱性程度低,其微度脆弱区面积比例最高;4)从生态脆弱性空间格局看,山东省生态脆弱性在空间上正相关,且呈现显著的高值聚集和低值聚集现象。本研究结果可为黄河经济带下游开展生态环境治理提供理论与实践支持。

计算机网络信息安全风险评估标准与方法研究

尽管计算机网络为人们的工作、生活和学习提供了极大的便利,但计算机网络也对社会构成了潜在的安全威胁。木马、病毒开发技术的更新升级,以及计算机网络信息系统自身固有的漏洞等,是影响网络信息系统推广应用和安全运行的主要因素。面对快速增长的计算机网络信息安全需求,仅被动地采用防御技术已经无法满足网络安全防御的要求,而计算机网络信息安全风险评估可以有效地分析网络信息系统的实时运行状态和预测其未来发展趋势,评估风险对计算机网络信息安全的影响,并对计算机网络信息安全风险评估标准与方法研究。

基于SRP模型的广东省林地生态脆弱性评价

综合评价广东省林地生态脆弱性等级,掌握广东省林地生态脆弱性的空间分布特征,可为公益林布局优化和生态修复提供理论支持。以广东省第三次全国国土调查成果、林草湿综合监测成果、生态保护红线成果、石漠化监测成果、DEM数据、气象数据、土壤数据等为基础数据,选取人口密度、单位建设用地、耕地占比、植被覆盖度、石漠化严重地区、年均降水量、植物净初级生产力、生物丰度等17个评价指标,基于3S技术,结合SRP模型,采用层次分析方法构建广东省林地脆弱性评价指标体系。结果表明:广东省林地生态环境脆弱性以微度、轻度、中度脆弱为主,占全省林地总面积的92.02%;从行政区划来看,重度脆弱区和极度脆弱区主要分布在清远市、韶关市、梅州市、河源市、肇庆市、茂名市、揭阳市7个市;从空间布局来看,重度脆弱区和极度脆弱区相对集中分布在石漠化区域、水土流失重点治理区和水土流失重点预防区、珠江三角洲人口密集区以及沿海基干林带和周边岛屿。

基于层次分析法的物资箱组选型方法研究

目的分析箱组化单元包装在选型过程中的影响因素,为物资箱组的采购提供科学决策方法。方法采用层次分析法,设计科学可行的决策思路,建立满足需求的选型评价体系,并通过实际采购任务验证方法的可行性。结果使用文中的选型评价体系和选型方法对某单位仓库箱组采购任务进行了需求分析,最终从市场上的100型箱组中筛选出2种满足需求的目标箱组,验证了选型方法的可行性、科学性。结论通过层次分析法建立的物资箱组选型评价体系,能够科学、高效地帮助需求单位进行箱组选型,满足箱组化单元包装的选型需求,可为箱组集装化的发展提供参考。

基于改进成本法的公共数据要素资产估值研究

高效的公共数据资产估值定价体系是公共数据要素流通和价值释放的基础。在成本法的评估框架下,构建了包含数据完整性、数据准确性等8个维度在内的数据资产效用评价指标体系,利用纳入专家判断力权值和相似度权值的群决策层次分析法计算不同效用维度间的相对权重,并在此基础上,运用专家打分法和模糊综合评价法计算综合效用评分,进而提出改进成本法的公共数据要素资产评估模型。最后,以福建省政务数据汇聚共享平台数据资产为对象进行估值分析。研究结果表明,改进的成本法适用于尚未商业化的公共政务数据资产估值。这为未进入市场流通体系的公共数据资产估值提供了方法支持,也可为建立统一规范的公共数据资产价值评估准则体系提供参考。

基于博弈论—云模型的装配式建筑脆弱性评价

装配式建筑因其绿色环保、施工效率高等优点而发展迅速,但相关安全管理制度却不够完善,导致事故频发,限制了其推广速度。为有效降低装配式建筑事故发生率,针对防范风险评价过程中指标的模糊性与主观性,提出了一种基于博弈论—云模型的装配式建筑脆弱性评价模型。依据装配式建筑施工特点及安全事故机理,构建脆弱性评估指标体系,利用改进层次分析法(AHP)和熵权法分别计算了评价指标的主客观权重,并引入博弈论将之组合赋权,得到更加科学合理的综合权重;利用云模型理论对装配式建筑进行脆弱性等级评价;对成都市某装配式建筑工程项目开展实证分析。结果表明:该项目脆弱性等级为“轻度脆弱”,与现场情况基本一致,验证了该模型的合理性和有效性;并对脆弱性相对较高的人员和管理因素提出了相应的改进建议和措施,为装配式建筑安全管理提供了可行性参考。

基于改进DEAHP法的高比例可再生能源系统脆弱性评估

由于可再生能源间歇性和随机性的运行特点以及不稳定的输出特性与不可控的源动力,电网接入可再生能源时在结构和运行上不可避免地会出现某些难以预料的脆弱特性。通过建立系统多场景规划模型,综合多个角度共同评估电网元件的脆弱性,提出了带有不确定测度的脆弱性评估方法。此方法能够有效识别电网中存在的薄弱节点和支路,可为运行分析人员和调度人员提供电网安全预警信息。

中职汽修专业群人才培养质量评价体系构建与研究

文章深入探讨了中职汽修专业群人才培养质量评价体系的构建。研究基于系统性、科学性等原则,详细分析了人才培养质量评价体系的构成要素,包括知识结构、能力结构、思想品德等关键领域。在评价指标设计上,文章提出了涵盖知识结构、实践能力、创新能力及社会适应能力等多维度的具体指标,并通过层次分析法等定量评价方法,确保评价的科学性和客观性。这一体系的构建,旨在全面评估中职汽修专业群人才培养的质量,为教育决策者提供科学依据。

AN ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS MODEL OF GROUP CONSENSUS

In group decision making, a certain degree of consensus is necessary to derive a meaningful and valid outcome. This paper proposes a consensus reaching model for a group by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP）. It supports people to improve their group consensus level through an updating of their judgments. In this model, a moderator suggests the most discoraant aeclslon manet to update his judgment in each step. The proposed consensus reaching model allows decision makers to accept or reject the suggestion from the moderator. This model ensures that the judgment updating is effective and the final solution will be of acceptable consistency. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the validity of the proposed consensus reaching model.

A group consensus model for evaluating real estate investment alternatives

Background:Individual decision-making largely influences the effectiveness of decisions and benefits of investments.Methods:In this article,a consensus model for group decision-making(GDM),based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),is developed to gather group ideas and analyze the real estate investment environment under multi-criteria problems.Twelve evaluation procedures of the developed model,which increase the convergence of the opinions of multiple experts,are proposed.Results:An empirical case about the real estate investment environment is applied to certify the feasibility of this developed model.Conclusions:the evaluation procedures have been fully observed with several rounds of discussions,and have manifested the experiences of experts.Besides,the evaluation results are in accordance with real-world situations,which demonstrates that our developed model is a feasible analysis tool for real estate investors to obtain better profits and lower risk.

Evaluation of Environmental Quality for Abandoned Coal Mine Based on Environmental Vulnerability Index

With the increasingly prominent environmental problems of abandoned coal mines,this paper discussed the significance of environmental vulnerability assessment of abandoned coal mines.Environmental vulnerability assessment is essentially an assessment of environmental quality.At present,the research object of environmental impact assessment method and program of mine is mostly single factor.However,the impact of abandoned coal mine on the environment is multifaceted,which was summarized into nine prominent common problems.Based on these nine factors,the environmental vulnerability assessment model of abandoned coal mine based on multifactor evaluation was established by using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method,the ranking criteria of nine factor indexes was proposed,the evaluation process was established,and the evaluation index system of environmental vulnerability of abandoned coal mines was established.The environmental vulnerability assessment method of abandoned coal mines has universal applicability,which can provide the basis for the government and enterprises to carry out treatment and planning of abandoned coal mine and promote the optimization of governance effect.

Improved Group Fuzzy Preference Programming Method Based on Fuzzy Random Theory

A new prioritization method in the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, which improves the group fuzzy preference programming （GFPP） method, is proposed. The fuzzy random theory is applied in the new prioritization method. By modifying the principle of decision making implied in the GFPP method, the improved group fuzzy preference programming （IGFPP） method is formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem to maximize the average degree of the group satisfaction with all possible group priority vectors. The IGFPP method inherits the advantages of the GFPP method, and solves the weighting trouble existed in the GFPP method. Numerical tests indicate that the IGFPP method performs more effectively than the GFPP method in the case of very contradictive comparison judgments from decision makers.

Establishment and Application of Assessment Indicator System of Agricultural Catastrophe Vulnerability

To give play to the role of agricultural catastrophe risk fund in spreading agricultural catastrophe risk,we select natural conditions,economic conditions,social conditions,as the external vulnerability assessment indicators;select commodity rate of agricultural products,substitutability of agricultural products,the extent of agricultural products being related to the national economy and the people's livelihood,as the internal vulnerability assessment indicators.We assign weight to indicators using Analytic Hierarchy Process,and establish assessment indicator system of agricultural catastrophe vulnerability,to analyze the compensation for losses of different agricultural products arising from agricultural catastrophe in different regions.And we take the case of rice in Sichuan Province,to demonstrate the role this indicator system.