Analysis of gravity wave activity during stratospheric sudden warmings in the northern hemisphere

Due to the significant changes they bring to high latitude stratospheric temperature and wind,stratospheric sudden warmings(SSWs)can have an impact on the propagation and energy distribution of gravity waves(GWs).The variation characteristics of GWs during SSWs have always been an important issue.Using temperature data from January to March in 2014−2016,provided by the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,Ionosphere and Climate(COSMIC)mission,we have analyzed global GW activity at 15−40 km in the Northern Hemisphere during SSW events.During the SSWs that we studied,the stratospheric temperature rose in one or two longitudinal regions in the Northern Hemisphere;the areas affected extended to the east of 90°W.During these SSWs,the potential energy density(E_(p)of GWs expanded and covered a larger range of longitude and altitude,exhibiting an eastward and downward extension.The E_(p)usually increased,while partially filtered by the eastward zonal winds.When zonal winds weakened or turned westward,E_(p)began to strengthen.After SSWs,the E_(p)usually decreased.These observations can serve as a reference for analyzing the interaction mechanism between SSWs and GWs in future work.

Long-term variation of Arctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings(SSW)and potential causes

Utilizing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast(ECMWF)Reanalysis v5(ERA5),for the first time,we have confirmed close links among Sudden Stratospheric Warmings(SSWs)in the Northern Hemisphere(NH),the polar vortices,and stratospheric Planetary Waves(PWs)by analyzing and comparing their trends.Interestingly,within overall increasing trends,the duration and strength of SSWs exhibit increasing and decreasing trends before and after the winter of 2002,respectively.To reveal possible physical mechanisms driving these trends,we analyzed the long-term trends of the winter(from December to February)polar vortices and of stratospheric PWs with zonal wave number 1.Notably,our results show that in all three time periods(the entire period of 41winters,1980 to 2020,and the two subperiods—1980-2002 and 2002-2020)enhancing SSWs were always accompanied by weakening winter polar vortices and strengthening polar PWs like Stationary Planetary Waves(SPWs)and 16-day waves,and vice versa.This is the first proof,based on ERA5 long-term trend data,that weakening polar vortices and enhancing stratospheric PWs(especially SPWs)could cause an increase in SSWs.

Influence of Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming on the Unprecedented Cold Wave in East Asia in January 2021

An unprecedented cold wave intruded into East Asia in early January 2021 and led to record-breaking or historical extreme low temperatures over vast regions.This study shows that a major stratospheric sudden warming(SSW)event at the beginning of January 2021 exerted an important influence on this cold wave.The major SSW event occurred on 2 January 2021 and subsequently led to the displacement of the stratospheric polar vortex to the East Asian side.Moreover,the SSW event induced the stratospheric warming signal to propagate downward to the mid-to-lower troposphere,which not only enhanced the blocking in the Urals-Siberia region and the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation,but also shifted the tropospheric polar vortex off the pole.The displaced tropospheric polar vortex,Ural blocking,and another downstream blocking ridge over western North America formed a distinct inverted omega-shaped circulation pattern(IOCP)in the East Asia-North Pacific sector.This IOCP was the most direct and impactful atmospheric pattern causing the cold wave in East Asia.The IOCP triggered a meridional cell with an upward branch in East Asia and a downward branch in Siberia.The meridional cell intensified the Siberian high and low-level northerly winds,which also favored the invasion of the cold wave into East Asia.Hence,the SSW event and tropospheric circulations such as the IOCP,negative phase of Arctic Oscillation,Ural blocking,enhanced Siberian high,and eastward propagation of Rossby wave eventually induced the outbreak of an unprecedented cold wave in East Asia in early January 2021.

The Spatial and Temporal Variability of Global Stratospheric GravityWaves and Their Activity during Sudden StratosphericWarming Revealed by COSMIC Measurements

This study investigates the spatial and temporal variability of global stratospheric gravity waves(GWs) and the characteristics of GW activity during sudden stratospheric warming(SSW) using the GPS radio occultation measurements from the COSMIC mission during September 2006 to May 2013. Corresponding to the COSMIC RO observational window and analysis method,GW potential energy(Ep) with vertical scales no shorter than ～2 km is resolved. It is found that the distributions of GW Ep over 20-30 km and 30-38 km show similar spatial and seasonal variations. The variations of GW Ep with altitude and latitude along the westerly wind are identified in different seasons over 60°-80°W. In the middle and high latitudes,seasonal cycles are distinct in the time-latitude and time-altitude distributions of GW activities,which show larger Ep in winters when westerly wind dominates and smaller Ep in summers when easterly wind dominates. The influence of quasi-biennial oscillation on GW activity is recognized in the tropics. GW Ep enhances closely following the occurrence of minor SSW events; while during major events, GW Ep may not enhance, and sometimes may even weaken,in the regions where reversals of zonal wind occur, probably caused by the filtering impact of the 0 ms^(-1) wind level on the GWs.

Modulational Instability of Ion—Acoustic Waves in a Warm Plasma with a Relativistic Electron Beam

The modulational instability of ion-acoustic wave in a collisionless, unmagnetized plasma consisting of warm ions, hot isothermal electrons, and relativistic electron beam is studied. A modified nonlinear Schr?dinger equation including one additional term that comes from the effect of relativistic electron beam is derived. It is found that the inclusion of a relativistic electron beam would modify the modulational instability of the wave packet and could not admit any stationary soliton waves.

Research on the Propagation Acting of the Equatorial Planetary Waves on the Western Equatorial Pacific Warm Pool Heat

Based on the long-term buoy data from the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean ( TAO ) —array during the TOGA ( Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere ) Program (19801996), the propagation acting of the Equatorial planetary waves on the Western Equatorial Pacific warm pool heat is analyzed. Results show that the zonal heat transmission in the Western Equatorial Pacific takes palace mainly in the subsurface water and spreads eastwards along the thermocline; while the seasonal westward-spreading heat change structure occurs in the mixed layers in the middle and western Pacific. The standing-form transmission in the western Pacific appears in the thermocline layer, while in the eastern pacific, it exists in the mixed layer as well as in the thermocline layer. The standing-form and eastward-spreading sign of zonal heat transmitting in the upper water is predominant and strong, and the westward sign is weak.The component force of Kelvin Equatorial wave pressure runs through the western and eastern Equatorial pacific, and transmits heat energy eastwards. And the heat transmitted by zonal current component occurs mostly in the western Pacific; The heat transmitted by the component force of Rossby wave pressure mainly appears in the eastern and middle areas of the Pacific, while the zonal current component transmitting occurs mainly in the western Pacific; Mixed-Rossby gravity wave’s action on the zonal current is stronger than that of the thermocline layer. In the mean state, the standing wave model of Equatorial Pacific up layer ocean temperature confines the transport of western Pacific warm pool heat to the eastern Pacific. Under abnormal conditions, the standing wave model of Equatorial Pacific up layer ocean temperature weakens, the eastwardly transmitting model enhances, and subsequently n^the El Ni o event occurs.

Relativistic Spherical Plasma Waves in a Collisional and Warm Plasma

Under Lagrange coordinates, the relativistic spherical plasma wave in a collisional and warm plasma is discussed theoretically. Within the Lagrange coordinates and using the Maxwell and hydrodynamics equations, a wave equation describing the relativistic spherical wave is derived. The damped oscillating spherical wave solution is obtained analytically using the perturbation theory. Because of the coupled effects of spherical geometry,thermal pressure, and collision effect, the electron damps the periodic oscillation. The oscillation frequency and the damping rate of the wave are related to not only the collision and thermal pressure effect but also the space coordinate. Near the center of the sphere, the thermal pressure significantly reduces the oscillation period and the damping rate of the wave, while the collision effect can strongly influence the damping rate. Far away from the spherical center, only the collision effect can reduce the oscillation period of the wave, while the collision effect and thermal pressure have weak influence on the damping rate.

西太平洋暖池海洋热浪在2020~2022三年拉尼娜事件爆发背景下的演变特征、爆发机制及其影响研究

在全球变暖的影响下,持续增长的海洋热浪事件(marine heat waves,MHW)对气候系统和社会经济产生了严重影响,其中西太平洋暖池区域是MHW特征显著变化的典型区域。本文基于已建立的MHW高分辨率数据、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)提供的大气海洋再分析资料、美国宇航局(NASA)Aqua卫星和生物地球化学Argo浮标提供的叶绿素-a浓度资料,利用统计分析和奇异值分解(SVD)等方法,探讨了2020~2022年西太平洋暖池MHW的演变特征、爆发机制及其生态影响。结果表明,西太平洋暖池MHW的爆发频率和强度等在近30年显著增加,其特征属性的变化与连续La Ni?a事件的爆发密切相关。尤其在2020~2022年连续三年La Ni?a事件背景下,西太平洋暖池区MHW爆发频次达到全球最高,且其覆盖面积、爆发频次、总天数、累积强度均是1982年以来最显著的。通过对西太平洋暖池区域混合层热收支的分析,2020~2022年期间MHW爆发主要是净海表热通量中的向下短波辐射项和海洋动力过程中的纬向平流项共同主导。此外,研究也揭示了在西太平洋暖池区域,MHW与海洋生态指标叶绿素-a浓度时空尺度上呈现负相关协同变化的特征,尤其是2020~2022年的MHW事件使该区域海洋上层浮游生物量整体呈显著下降趋势。

热浪胁迫对松墨天牛繁殖特性的影响

【目的】松墨天牛Monochamus alternatus是我国南方松林重要蛀干害虫,也是松材线虫Bursaphelenchus xylophilus病的主要媒介昆虫。探究热浪(heat wave)事件对松墨天牛繁殖特性的影响,可为全球气候变暖背景下其种群动态和松材线虫病流行规律的预测预报提供理论依据。【方法】对松墨天牛16日龄成虫进行模拟热浪处理(40℃持续72 h),随后将其置于室温(25℃)交配产卵,每周为1个观测周期,统计成虫的单雌日均产卵量、卵长、卵历期和孵化率等生殖参数及子代幼虫体重的变化规律。【结果】热浪处理组单雌日均产卵量与对照组无显著差异。热浪处理组卵长在第1个观测周期内比对照组短0.09 mm,第2个观测周期以后反超并一直长于对照组。热浪处理组卵历期在第1个观测周期内比对照组长1.16 d,第2个观测周期内即与对照组相同,并在此后短于对照组。热浪处理组卵孵化率由91.83%下降至63.04%,直至第4个观测周期才恢复至与对照组水平。从子代幼虫体重来看,无论初孵幼虫体重如何变化,饲养28 d后热浪处理组与对照组子代幼虫体重均会达到同一水平。【结论】实验室内模拟单次热浪事件短期会对松墨天牛的生殖参数产生负面影响,但随着热浪胁迫解除松墨天牛成虫的繁殖能力能在较短时间内恢复,通常在7 d后即可恢复至正常水平,甚至得到一定的促进,对热浪胁迫表现出“毒物兴奋”响应。推测在气候变暖条件下,松墨天牛仍能在原分布区保持较高的种群密度。

平流层爆发性增温期间中高层大气行星波研究进展

极区平流层爆发性增温(SSW)是冬季半球最剧烈的大气扰动现象之一.SSW期间温度和风场的剧烈变化被认为是冬季半球中高层大气波动能量异常增强的主要原因.流星雷达是能够稳定连续探测中间层和低热层风场的重要地基探测设备.主要依托国家重大科技基础设施建设项目:“子午工程”,我国已建设了多个流星雷达观测台站,对中间层和低热层风场进行了长期稳定连续的监测,为揭示SSW期间中间层和低热层波动异常变化的物理机制提供了重要的观测资料.本文简述了近年来以我国“子午工程”流星雷达监测数据为核心,SSW期间中高层大气行星波的研究进展和成果;深入讨论了冬季半球中高层大气行星波发生异常变化的主要激发机制.随着“子午工程”二期十个流星雷达台站即将建成,本文对利用“子午工程”流星雷达监测台网进一步研究SSW期间中高层大气波动的变化特性进行了展望.

广西1961~2022年寒潮气候变化特征及大气环流异常分析

研究全球变暖背景下低温寒潮的演变趋势是气候变化研究的基本问题之一,为人类的生产生活提供重要信息。本研究利用广西1961~2022年75个气象台站逐日平均气温和最低气温数据,根据广西寒潮标准,计算近61个寒潮年单站和区域的寒潮日数、频次和强度,并利用WS2001线性趋势变化评估方法、相关分析和合成分析等方法,研究了广西寒潮演变规律和大气环流的气候异常特征。结果表明:97.9%的寒潮发生在11月至次年3月,且12月至次年2月频次最高。寒潮日数和频次呈现东高西低、北高南低的空间格局,而寒潮强度则中部最高、东部次之、西部最低。近61年寒潮站日数和站次数呈减少趋势,且桂北和桂东减少速率高于桂南和桂西,而站平均寒潮强度呈弱的增加趋势,增幅高值在中部和东部区域,但广西区域性的寒潮从日数、强度和覆盖的站点数量均没有显著变化。广西寒潮主要发生季的气温增加显著,且在1998年发生气温突变,气候变暖后,尽管寒潮频次下降,但区域性寒潮日数降幅较小,站点和区域寒潮强度均表现为轻微的增加趋势。南海副高位置偏南、北半球中高纬度极涡面积和强度指数偏大、乌拉尔山高压脊偏强、东亚大槽偏弱、北极涛动和北大西洋涛动为负位相时,造成广西寒潮频次偏多。

2021年北极典型平流层爆发性增温事件研究与预报

本文选取了对我国2021年冬季寒潮事件可能有重要影响的2021年1月北半球平流层爆发性增温(SSW)事件为例,利用观测资料、再分析资料和预报模式,探讨了2021年1月的SSW事件的特征和机制并对其进行了预报研究。此次SSW事件(简称为“事件”)发生期间,北极平流层温度几天内上升近30°C,绕极西风环流减弱甚至在此次事件中出现了三次逆转为东风环流的现象。事件发生前期,太平洋海温和巴伦支—喀拉海(BK)海冰的出现异常的降低和减少现象;使用Eliassen-Palm通量(E-P通量)研究发现,这导致更多的对流层异常行星波活动上传到平流层;海温和海冰所导致的行星波活动的异常增多可能是导致此次SSW事件的主要因素。除此之外还发现,事件期间平流层位势高度正异常下传到对流层,与2021年1月中旬亚欧大陆出现的极端低温事件,存在显著的联系。最后,本文使用基于WACCM6模式和DART同化工具建立的平流层预报模型对此次事件进行了回报研究。该模型成功的预报了2021年1月发生的这次SSW事件,预报的温度大小和纬向风强度基本和观测结果一致。对回报试验的进一步研究发现,同化平流层温度、臭氧和水汽,减少预报初始场中平流层环流和温度误差,对准确预报这次SSW事件有重要的作用。初始场中没有同化平流层温度、臭氧和水汽的预报试验结果,与观测结果之间存在很大差异,甚至结果完全相反。

全球变暖背景下高温热浪对飞机起飞性能的影响

在全球变暖的背景下,高温热浪事件显著增多且对飞机性能的影响日益显著。利用机场气象站点观测数据、通用地球系统模式版本2(CESM2,community earth system model version 2)和波音性能软件(BPS,Boeing performance software)分析了中国1973—2022年期间机场高温热浪发生的趋势,并定量评估了未来高温热浪事件对B737-800飞机最大起飞重量和起飞滑跑距离的影响。结果表明,1973—2022年期间平原机场纬度越低,高温日数上升趋势越明显,高温热浪事件在1989年后显著增多,而高原机场在此期间未发生高温热浪事件;2096—2100年期间4个机场的飞机最大起飞重量全部受到高温影响的限制,相较于2010—2014年减载天数明显增多,其中高原机场受影响程度最大;当飞机满载飞行时,飞机在3个平原机场的起飞滑跑距离随温度升高并呈非线性变化,温度越高,增长趋势越明显。该结论可为未来改造或新建机场跑道及航空公司制定飞行计划提供重要的参考依据。

The Impact of Global Warming on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Possible Mechanism

The response of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） to global warming according to the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model （FOAM） and global warming comparison experiments of 11 IPCC AR4 models is investigated. The results show that North Pacific ocean decadal variability, its dominant mode （i.e., PDO）, and atmospheric decadal variability, have become weaker under global warming, but with PDO shifting to a higher frequency. The SST decadal variability reduction maximum is shown to be in the subpolar North Pacific Ocean and western North Pacific （PDO center）. The atmospheric decadal variability reduction maximum is over the PDO center. It was also found that oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves play a key role in PDO dynamics, especially those in the subpolar ocean. As the frequency of ocean buoyancy increases under a warmer climate, oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves become faster, and the increase in their speed ratio in the high latitudes is much larger than in the low latitudes. The faster baroclinic Rossby waves can cause the PDO to shift to a higher frequency, and North Pacific decadal variability and PDO to become weaker.

A Comparison of Polar Vortex Response to Pacific and Indian Ocean Warming

During recent decades, the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean has become increasingly warmer. Meanwhile, both the northern and southern hemispheric polar vortices （NPV and SPV） have exhibited a deepening trend in boreal winter. Although previous studies have revealed that the tropical Indian Ocean warming （IOW） favors an intensifying NPV and a weakening SPV, how the tropical Pacific Ocean warming （POW） influences the NPV and SPV remains unclear. In this study, a comparative analysis has been conducted through ensemble atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） experiments. The results show that, for the Northern Hemisphere, the two warmings exerted opposite impacts in boreal winter, in that the IOW intensified the NPV while the POW weakened the NPV. For the Southern Hemisphere, both the IOW and POW warmed the southern polar atmosphere and weakened the SPV. A diagnostic analysis based on the vorticity budget revealed that such an interhemispheric difference in influences from the IOW and POW in boreal winter was associated with different roles of transient eddy momentum flux convergence between the hemispheres. Furthermore, this difference may have been linked to different strengths of stationary wave activity between the hemispheres in boreal winter.

Study of relationship between wave transport and sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the tropical Pacific

Large-scale water transport is one of the key factors that affect sea surface temperature anomaly（SSTA） in the eastern equatorial Pacific（EEP）.The relationship between the wave transport in the tropical Pacific and the SSTA in the EEP is examined by different methods,including band-pass filtering,period analysis,correlation analysis,significant analysis,and empirical orthogonal function（EOF） analysis.We have found that the eastward shift of the wave transport anomaly in the tropical Pacific,with a period of 2 a and enhancing the transport of warm waters from the western Pacific warm pool,precedes the increase of sea surface temperature（SST） in the EEP.The wave transport and the SSTA in the EEP have a maximum correlation of 0.65 with a time-lag of 6 months（transport variation precedes the temperature）.The major periods（3.7 a and 2.45 a） of the wave transport variability,as revealed by the EOF analysis,appear to be consistent with the SSTA oscillation cycle in the EEP.Based on the first occurrence of a significant SSTA in the Ni？o 3 region（5°S–5°N,90°–150°W）,two types of warm events are defined.The wave transport anomalies in two types present predominantly the west anomaly in the tropical Pacific,it is that the wave transport continues transport warm water from west to east before the onset of the warm event.The impact of wave-induced water transport on the SSTA in the EEP is confirmed by the heat flux of the wave transport.The wave transport exerts significant effect on the SSTA variability in the EEP and thus is not neglectable in the further studies.

Dynamic mechanism of interannual zonal displacements of the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool

The eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） in the upper layer （shallower than 50m） exhibits significant zonal displacements on interannual scale. Employing an intermediate ocean model, the dynamic mechanism for the interannual zonal displacement of the WPWP eastern edge in the upper layer is investigated by diagnosing the dynamic impacts of zonal current anomalies induced by wind, waves （Kelvin and Rossby waves）, and their boundary reflections. The interannual zonal displacements of the WPWP eastern edge in the upper layer and the zonal current anomaly in the equatorial Pacific west of ll0~W for more than 30 years can be well simulated. The modeling results show that zonal current anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are the dominant dynamic mechanism for the zonal displacements of the eastern edge of the upper WPWP warm water. Composite analyses suggest that the zonal current anomalies induced by waves dominate the zonal displacement of the WPWP eastern edge, whereas the role played by zonal wind-driven current anomalies is very small. A sensitivity test proves that the zonal current anomalies associated with reflected waves on the western and eastern Pacific boundaries can act as a restoring force that results in the interannual reciprocating zonal motion of the WPWP eastern edge.

Middle Stratospheric Polar Vortex Ozone Budget during the Warming Arctic Winter, 2002-2003

The ozone budget inside the middle stratospheric polar vortex （24-36 km） during the 2002-2003 Arctic winter is studied by analyzing Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding （MIPAS） satellite data.A comprehensive global chemical transport model （Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers,MOZART-3） is used to analyze the observed variation in polar vortex ozone during the stratospheric sudden warming （SSW） events.Both MIPAS measurement and MOZART-3 calculation show that a pronounced increase （26-28 DU） in the polar vortex ozone due to the SSW events.Due to the weakening of the polar vortex,the exchange of ozone mass across the edge of the polar vortex increases substantially and amounts to about 3.0 × 10 7 kg according to MOZART-3 calculation.The enhanced downward transport offsets about 80% of polar vortex ozone mass increase by horizontal transport.A ＂passive ozone＂ experiment shows that only ～55% of the vertical ozone mass flux in February and March can be attributed to the variation in vertical transport.It is also shown that the enhanced downward ozone above ～32 km should be attributed to the springtime photochemical ozone production.Due to the increase of air temperature,the NO x reaction rate increases by 40%-80% during the SSW events.As a result,NO x catalytic cycle causes another 44% decrease in polar vortex ozone compared to the net ozone changes due to dynamical transport.It is also shown that the largest change in polar vortex ozone is due to horizontal advection by planetary waves in January 2003.

Reponses of middle atmospheric circulation to the 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming

In this research, the roles of gravity waves and planetary waves in the change to middle atmospheric residual circulation duringa sudden stratospheric warming period are differentiated and depicted separately by adopting the downward control principle. Ouranalysis shows clear anomalous poleward residual circulation patterns from the equator to high latitudes in the lower winterstratosphere. At the same time, upward mean flows are identified at high latitudes of the winter upper stratosphere and mesosphere,which turn equatorward in the mesosphere and reach as far as the tropical region, and consequently the extratropical region in thesummer hemisphere. The downward control principle shows that anomalous mesospheric residual circulation patterns, includinginterhemispheric coupling, are solely caused by the change in gravity wave forcing resulting from the reversal of the winter stratosphericzonal wind. Nevertheless, both planetary waves and gravity waves are important to variations in the winter stratospheric circulation, butwith opposite effects.

Variation in Brewer–Dobson Circulation During Three Sudden Stratospheric Major Warming Events in the 2000s

As the strongest subseasonal atmospheric variability during boreal winter, three remarkable sudden stratospheric major warming(SSW) events in the 2000 s are investigated in terms of the Brewer–Dobson circulation(BDC) response. Our study shows that the changes of cross-isentropic velocity during the SSWs are not only confined to the polar region, but also extend to the whole Northern Hemisphere: enhanced descent in the polar region, as well as enhanced ascent in the tropics. When the acceleration of the deep branch of the BDC descends to the middle stratosphere, its strength rapidly decreases over a period of one to two weeks. The acceleration of the deep branch of the BDC is driven by the enhanced planetary wave activity in the mid-to-high-latitude stratosphere. Different from the rapid response of the deep branch of the BDC, tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere accelerates up to 20%–40% compared with the climatology, 20–30 days after the onset of the SSWs,and the acceleration lasts for one to three months. The enhancement of tropical upwelling is associated with the large-scale wave-breaking in the subtropics interacting with the midlatitude and tropical Quasi-Biennial Oscillation–related mean flow.