Early warning systems for enteral feeding intolerance in patients with stroke

Objective:The objective of this study was to construct an early warning system(EWS)to facilitate risk assessment,early identification,and appropriate treatment of enteral nutrition feeding intolerance(FI)in patients with stroke,so as to provide a reference for risk classification standards and interventions toward a complete EWSs for nursing care of stroke.Materials and Methods:Based on evidence and clinical nursing practice,a structured expert consultation method was adopted on nine experts over two rounds of consultation.Statistical analysis was used to determine the early warning index for FI in patients with stroke.Results:The expert authority coefficient was 0.89;the coefficients of variation for the two rounds of consultation were 0.088-0.312 and 0.096-0.214,respectively.There were significant differences in the Kendall’s concordance coefficient(P<0.05).Finally,22 items in five dimensions of patient age,disease,treatment,biochemical,and enteral nutrition-related factors were identified.Conclusion:The early warning index for FI in patients with a history of stroke is valid and practical.It provides a reference for the early clinical identification of FI risk.

Probabilistic earthquake early warning times in Fujian Province

Earthquake early warning （EEW） systems are a new and effective way to mitigate the damage associated with earthquakes. A prototype EEW system is currently being constructed in the Fujian Province, a region along the Southeast coast of China. It is anticipated that the system will be completed in time to be tested at the end of this year （2013）. In order to evaluate how much advanced warning the EEW system will be able to provide different cities in Fujian, we established an EEW information release scheme based on the seismic monitoring stations distributed in the region. Based on this scheme, we selected 71 historical earthquakes. We then obtained the delineation of the region＇s potential seismic source data in order to estimate the highest potential seismic intensities for each city as well as the EEW system warning times. For most of the Fujian Province, EEW alarms would sound several seconds prior to the arrival of the destructive wave. This window of time gives city inhabitants the opportunity to take protective measures before the full intensity of the earthquake strikes.

Estimation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in the Sierra Madre Oriental, northeastern Mexico

Landslides induced by prolonged rainfalls are frequent mass movements along the northeastern portion of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico,causing significant damage to infrastructure.In this work,we have studied the connection between rainfall and landslides in the Santa Rosa Canyon,a catchment located in the northeastern Mexico.A landslide database triggered by major storms and hurricanes that have hit the region over the past 30 years was analyzed.A total of 92 rainfall events in the Santa Rosa Canyon were studied to determine the amount of precipitation needed to trigger shallow landslides.For each event the duration(D,in hours)and the cumulated rainfall event(E,in mm)were determined by using historical rainfall data from weather stations located near the study area.We have proposed an ED threshold for rainfall-induced landslides with durations 0.5<D<120 hours to address the conditions that trigger these events in the study area.On analyzing the obtained threshold,it has been established that almost 60 mm of a daily rainfall accumulation is required to trigger shallow landslides in the study area.This estimation is consistent with other calculations made for areas close to the Santa Rosa Canyon.Finally,we validated the predictive capability of the threshold with a different set of rainfall data that did not result in landslides performing a straightforward receiver operating characteristic analysis.A good approach was obtained,especially for rainfall events with daily measurements.Results could be used as input information in the design of a landslide early warning system for the northeastern Mexico,and replicated for other landslide prone areas in the region.

Assessing Weather Services for Rural Fishing and Farming Communities in Uganda

Climate-related hazards like drought are associated with loss of life and lead to food insecurity in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Food insecurity, which affects more than 220 million sub-Saharan Africans, manifests as starvation that leads to more than 50% of children under the age of 5-years presenting as underweight for age in many communities on the continent. This household survey reports the means by which rural fisher folk and farming communities in Uganda gained access to early warning meteorological information. The survey covered five districts across different climatic zones in Uganda and recruited a total of 405 respondents with an average age of 41 years (SD 16). Economic activity was used to categorize each of the five districts into farming (crops and livestock) and fishing areas. The results showed that most respondents were unaware of drought as one of the climate-related hazards. Compared to respondents from the fishing communities, the respondents from farming communities were more likely to be receiving weather-related information (P-value < 0.01). There were 204/405 (50.37%) female respondents who, compared to male respondents, were less likely to have access to weather information, less willing to pay for weather information, and less likely to have and/or own devices like a radio for receiving weather information. The survey demonstrated that: 1) there were gaps in the knowledge about climate-related hazards, 2) there is a need for additional interventions targeting fisher folk communities access timely weather information, and 3) introducing user paid access to weather information may increase climate-related gender-based disparities.

“What is a Sociologist Doing Here?”An Unconventional People-Centered Approach to Improve Warning Implementation in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 recommends several actions for early warning systems(EWSs). However, there is a lack of information about their means of implementation. This article used institutional ethnography to analyze the 2012–2018 implementation of a national warning system in Brazil. The challenges related to daily activities, and the interdisciplinary works in the four axes of EWSs towards multi-hazard and people-centered approaches are discussed. This national experience is then discussed in the light of the global challenges of EWSs considering two main issues:(1) experiences of implementation and barriers related to people-centered warning systems;and(2)types of national/regional warning systems and hazards/threats that are being monitored as an important input for multi-hazard approaches. There are few multi-hazard warning systems in place and EWSs are focused on hydrometeorological hazards, mainly related to floods. The Sendai Framework needs to improve access to data and information, identify views from the frontline, consider political threats and vulnerabilities, and find ways to talk about disaster risk creation processes at a larger scale.

When Disaster Risk Management Systems Fail: The Case of Cyclone Idai in Chimanimani District, Zimbabwe

On 14 March 2019,Zimbabwe was hit by Cyclone Idai,leaving immeasurable destruction of unprecedented magnitude in its wake.In Chimanimani District,many lives were lost,many people were reported missing,and others were displaced.The question that immediately comes to mind is:Was the country prepared to manage the Cyclone Idai disaster?Reflecting on the community experiences,the purpose of this research was to interrogate the strength of the disaster risk reduction legislation and institutions in Zimbabwe in the face of meteorological hazards.The research also evaluated the extent of the impact Cyclone Idai had on the Chimanimani communities and the factors that increased the vulnerability to the cyclone.A mixed method approach that involved 1180 participants was used.The study found that disaster risk management legislation and institutions in Zimbabwe are weak.Cyclone Idai resulted in the loss of many human lives,loss of livelihoods,and massive damage to infrastructure.The cyclone exposed capacity and policy gaps in Zimbabwe’s disaster risk management system.The study makes a number of recommendations,including strengthening disaster legislation and policy,and disaster risk governance.Given the communities’response to the disaster occurrence,the study also recommends strengthening social capital.