Early warning systems for enteral feeding intolerance in patients with stroke

Objective:The objective of this study was to construct an early warning system(EWS)to facilitate risk assessment,early identification,and appropriate treatment of enteral nutrition feeding intolerance(FI)in patients with stroke,so as to provide a reference for risk classification standards and interventions toward a complete EWSs for nursing care of stroke.Materials and Methods:Based on evidence and clinical nursing practice,a structured expert consultation method was adopted on nine experts over two rounds of consultation.Statistical analysis was used to determine the early warning index for FI in patients with stroke.Results:The expert authority coefficient was 0.89;the coefficients of variation for the two rounds of consultation were 0.088-0.312 and 0.096-0.214,respectively.There were significant differences in the Kendall’s concordance coefficient(P<0.05).Finally,22 items in five dimensions of patient age,disease,treatment,biochemical,and enteral nutrition-related factors were identified.Conclusion:The early warning index for FI in patients with a history of stroke is valid and practical.It provides a reference for the early clinical identification of FI risk.

Climate Change, Local Weather and Customized Early Warning Systems based on Biometeorological Indexes

The following paper is a brief theoretical approach to the state of the art in relation to the new demands of society in the area of climate and weather-related services for health. Apart from the study of the impacts of climate change on health which requires a longer consideration, a special emphasis is given to the area of weather-related services based on biometeorological forecasting. A new way of understanding the interaction between atmospheric factors and living organisms is presented and some biometeorological indexes already developed are shown. Customized biometeorological services must be constructed in the field of human health based on the ICTs development and the amount of climatic data available but new approaches and scientific methods are required to success in achieving this enterprise.

Mainstreaming Early Warning Systems in Development and Planning Processes: Multilevel Implementation of Sendai Framework in Indus and Sahel

The third UN World Congress on Disaster Risk Reduction, held in Sendai, Japan in March 2015, agreed on a new framework to guide disaster risk reduction policy and practice for the next 15 years. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR) leaves important implementation issues unspecified and potentially creates both problems and opportunities for complex,multilevel governance systems in coping with hazards and disastrous events. Early warning systems(EWS), if built into the mainstream of planning for development and disaster relief and recovery, could present a significant opportunity to realize many SFDRR goals. We explore the complexities of using hydrometeorological EWS to prepare for drought and flood disasters in the densely populated communities of Pakistan’s Indus River Basin in contrast to the African Sahel’s less densely settled grasslands. Multilevel governance systems are often dominated by a topdown, technocentric, centralized management bias and have great difficulty responding to the needs of peripheral and vulnerable populations. People-centered, bottom-up approaches that incorporate disaggregated communities with local knowledge into a balanced, multilevel disaster risk management and governance structure have adramatically better chance of realizing the SFDRR goals for disaster risk reduction.

Probabilistic earthquake early warning times in Fujian Province

Earthquake early warning （EEW） systems are a new and effective way to mitigate the damage associated with earthquakes. A prototype EEW system is currently being constructed in the Fujian Province, a region along the Southeast coast of China. It is anticipated that the system will be completed in time to be tested at the end of this year （2013）. In order to evaluate how much advanced warning the EEW system will be able to provide different cities in Fujian, we established an EEW information release scheme based on the seismic monitoring stations distributed in the region. Based on this scheme, we selected 71 historical earthquakes. We then obtained the delineation of the region＇s potential seismic source data in order to estimate the highest potential seismic intensities for each city as well as the EEW system warning times. For most of the Fujian Province, EEW alarms would sound several seconds prior to the arrival of the destructive wave. This window of time gives city inhabitants the opportunity to take protective measures before the full intensity of the earthquake strikes.

Debris Flow Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of NonStructural Strategies in Taiwan

Taiwan has disadvantageous conditions for sediment-related disasters such as debris flows. The construction of engineering structures is an effective strategy for reducing debris flow disasters. However, it is impossible to construct engineering structures in all debris flow areas in a short period. Therefore, the government aims to gradually develop non-structural preventive strategies, including evacuation planning, debris flow disaster emergency action system, disaster resistant community program, recruitment of debris flow professional volunteers, debris flow warning systems, and land management strategies, to mitigate disasters and secure the safety of residents. This review describes the processes and effects of recent debris flow non-structural preventive strategies in Taiwan. The average number of casualties prior to the year 2000 was far higher than the corresponding number after 2000 because debris flow evacuation drills have been promoted since 2000 and the debris flow disaster emergency action system has been progressively improved since 2002. Furthermore, the changes in risks caused by debris flow disasters before and after the implementation of non-structural preventive strategies were used to explain the effectiveness of these strategies at the community level. The results showed that softwarebased non-structural preventive strategies can effectively reduce the casualties caused by debris flows at both the national and community levels.

Estimation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in the Sierra Madre Oriental, northeastern Mexico

Landslides induced by prolonged rainfalls are frequent mass movements along the northeastern portion of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico,causing significant damage to infrastructure.In this work,we have studied the connection between rainfall and landslides in the Santa Rosa Canyon,a catchment located in the northeastern Mexico.A landslide database triggered by major storms and hurricanes that have hit the region over the past 30 years was analyzed.A total of 92 rainfall events in the Santa Rosa Canyon were studied to determine the amount of precipitation needed to trigger shallow landslides.For each event the duration(D,in hours)and the cumulated rainfall event(E,in mm)were determined by using historical rainfall data from weather stations located near the study area.We have proposed an ED threshold for rainfall-induced landslides with durations 0.5<D<120 hours to address the conditions that trigger these events in the study area.On analyzing the obtained threshold,it has been established that almost 60 mm of a daily rainfall accumulation is required to trigger shallow landslides in the study area.This estimation is consistent with other calculations made for areas close to the Santa Rosa Canyon.Finally,we validated the predictive capability of the threshold with a different set of rainfall data that did not result in landslides performing a straightforward receiver operating characteristic analysis.A good approach was obtained,especially for rainfall events with daily measurements.Results could be used as input information in the design of a landslide early warning system for the northeastern Mexico,and replicated for other landslide prone areas in the region.

Landslide Monitoring Using Low Cost GNSS Equipment - Experiences from Two Alpine Testing Sites

Simple GNSS navigation receivers, developed for the mass market, can be used for positioning with sub centimeter accuracy in a wireless sensor network if the read-out of the carrier phase data is possible and all data is permanently broadcast to a central computer for near real time processing of the respective base lines. Experiences gained in two research projects related to landslide monitoring are depicted in terms of quality and reliability of the results by the developed approach. As far as possible a modular system set up with commercial off-the-shelf components, e.g., standard WLAN fur commtmication, solar batteries with solar panels for autarkic power supply and in cooperation of existing proofed program tools is chosen. The challenge of the still ongoing development is to have a flexible and robust GNSS based sensor network available - concerned not only for landslide monitoring in future.

Assessing Weather Services for Rural Fishing and Farming Communities in Uganda

Climate-related hazards like drought are associated with loss of life and lead to food insecurity in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Food insecurity, which affects more than 220 million sub-Saharan Africans, manifests as starvation that leads to more than 50% of children under the age of 5-years presenting as underweight for age in many communities on the continent. This household survey reports the means by which rural fisher folk and farming communities in Uganda gained access to early warning meteorological information. The survey covered five districts across different climatic zones in Uganda and recruited a total of 405 respondents with an average age of 41 years (SD 16). Economic activity was used to categorize each of the five districts into farming (crops and livestock) and fishing areas. The results showed that most respondents were unaware of drought as one of the climate-related hazards. Compared to respondents from the fishing communities, the respondents from farming communities were more likely to be receiving weather-related information (P-value < 0.01). There were 204/405 (50.37%) female respondents who, compared to male respondents, were less likely to have access to weather information, less willing to pay for weather information, and less likely to have and/or own devices like a radio for receiving weather information. The survey demonstrated that: 1) there were gaps in the knowledge about climate-related hazards, 2) there is a need for additional interventions targeting fisher folk communities access timely weather information, and 3) introducing user paid access to weather information may increase climate-related gender-based disparities.

On Governance of Celebrity Endorsements in False Advertising

incidents of extreme hyperbole and fraud in celebrity advertisements have occurred repeatedly because advertising participants are driven by commercial interests and it is also relevant to the deep social and cultural background. Therefore, great and prolonged efforts should be made to govern celebrity advertising in a multi-pronged way： strengthening legal supervision on the basis of clearly defined false advertising; establishing early warning and punishing systems including pre-qualification system, filing system and banning system; promoting public interest litigation system; increasing consumers＇ media literacy.

“What is a Sociologist Doing Here?”An Unconventional People-Centered Approach to Improve Warning Implementation in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 recommends several actions for early warning systems(EWSs). However, there is a lack of information about their means of implementation. This article used institutional ethnography to analyze the 2012–2018 implementation of a national warning system in Brazil. The challenges related to daily activities, and the interdisciplinary works in the four axes of EWSs towards multi-hazard and people-centered approaches are discussed. This national experience is then discussed in the light of the global challenges of EWSs considering two main issues:(1) experiences of implementation and barriers related to people-centered warning systems;and(2)types of national/regional warning systems and hazards/threats that are being monitored as an important input for multi-hazard approaches. There are few multi-hazard warning systems in place and EWSs are focused on hydrometeorological hazards, mainly related to floods. The Sendai Framework needs to improve access to data and information, identify views from the frontline, consider political threats and vulnerabilities, and find ways to talk about disaster risk creation processes at a larger scale.

When Disaster Risk Management Systems Fail: The Case of Cyclone Idai in Chimanimani District, Zimbabwe

On 14 March 2019,Zimbabwe was hit by Cyclone Idai,leaving immeasurable destruction of unprecedented magnitude in its wake.In Chimanimani District,many lives were lost,many people were reported missing,and others were displaced.The question that immediately comes to mind is:Was the country prepared to manage the Cyclone Idai disaster?Reflecting on the community experiences,the purpose of this research was to interrogate the strength of the disaster risk reduction legislation and institutions in Zimbabwe in the face of meteorological hazards.The research also evaluated the extent of the impact Cyclone Idai had on the Chimanimani communities and the factors that increased the vulnerability to the cyclone.A mixed method approach that involved 1180 participants was used.The study found that disaster risk management legislation and institutions in Zimbabwe are weak.Cyclone Idai resulted in the loss of many human lives,loss of livelihoods,and massive damage to infrastructure.The cyclone exposed capacity and policy gaps in Zimbabwe’s disaster risk management system.The study makes a number of recommendations,including strengthening disaster legislation and policy,and disaster risk governance.Given the communities’response to the disaster occurrence,the study also recommends strengthening social capital.

Interpretability and spatial efficacy of a deep-learning-based on-site early warning framework using explainable artificial intelligence and geographically weighted random forests

Earthquakes pose significant risks globally,necessitating effective seismic risk mitigation strategies like earthquake early warning(EEW)systems.However,developing and optimizing such systems requires thoroughly understanding their internal procedures and coverage limitations.This study examines a deep-learning-based on-site EEW framework known as ROSERS(Real-time On-Site Estimation of Response Spectra)proposed by the authors,which constructs response spectra from early recorded ground motion waveforms at a target site.This study has three primary goals:(1)evaluating the effectiveness and applicability of ROSERS to subduction seismic sources;(2)providing a detailed interpretation of the trained deep neural network(DNN)and surrogate latent variables(LVs)implemented in ROSERS;and(3)analyzing the spatial efficacy of the framework to assess the coverage area of on-site EEW stations.ROSERS is retrained and tested on a dataset of around 11,000 unprocessed Japanese subduction ground motions.Goodness-of-fit testing shows that the ROSERS framework achieves good performance on this database,especially given the peculiarities of the subduction seismic environment.The trained DNN and LVs are then interpreted using game theory-based Shapley additive explanations to establish cause-effect relationships.Finally,the study explores the coverage area of ROSERS by training a novel spatial regression model that estimates the LVs using geographically weighted random forest and determining the radius of similarity.The results indicate that on-site predictions can be considered reliable within a 2–9 km radius,varying based on the magnitude and distance from the earthquake source.This information can assist end-users in strategically placing sensors,minimizing blind spots,and reducing errors from regional extrapolation.

A τ_c magnitude estimation of the 20 April 2013 Lushan earthquake, Sichuan, China

A crucial part of proposed earthquake early warning systems is a rapid estimate for earthquake magnitude.Most of these methods are focused on the first part of the P-wave train,the earlier and less destructive part of the ground motion that follows an earthquake.A method has been proposed by using the period of the P-wave to determine the magnitude of a large earthquake at local distance,and a specific relation for the Sichuan region was calibrated according to acceleration records of Wenchuan earthquake.The Mw 6.6 earthquake hit Lushan County,Sichuan,on April 20,2013 and the largest aftershocks provide a useful dataset to validate the proposed relation and discuss the risks connected to the extrapolation of magnitude relations with a poor dataset of large earthquake waveforms.A discrepancy between the local magnitude(ML)estimated by means ofτc evaluation and the standard ML(6.4 vs.7.0)suggests using caution when ML vs.τc calibrations do not include a relevant dataset of large earthquakes.Effects from large residuals could be mitigated or removed by introducing selection rules onτc function,by regionalizing the ML vs.τc function in the presence of significant tectonic or geological heterogeneity,and by using probabilistic and evolutionary methods.