Comparative analysis of recent hydrological models and an attempt to generate new combined products for monitoring terrestrial water storage change

Hydrological models are crucial for characterizing large-scale water quantity variations and correcting GNSS reference station vertical displacements.We evaluated the robustness of multiple models,such as the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS),the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS),the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP),and the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM).Inter-model and outer comparisons with Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinate time series,satellite gravity field Mascon solutions,and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) guide our assessment.Results confirm WGHM's 26% greater effectiveness in correcting nonlinear variations in GPS height time series compared to NCEP.In the Amazon River Basin,a 5-month lag between FLDAS,GLDAS,and satellite gravity results is observed.In eastern Asia and Australia,NCEP's Terrestrial Water Storage Changes (TWSC)-derived surface displacements correlate differently with precipitation compared to other models.Three combined hydrological models (H-VCE,H-EWM,and H-CVM) utilizing Variance Component Estimation (VCE),Entropy Weight Method (EWM),and Coefficient of Variation Method (CVM) are formulated.Correcting nonlinear variations with combined models enhances global GPS height scatter by 15%-17%.Correlation with precipitation increases by 25%-30%,and with satellite gravity,rises from 0.2 to 0.8 at maximum.The combined model eliminates time lag in the Amazon Basin TWSC analysis,exhibiting a four times higher signal-to-noise ratio than single models.H-VCE demonstrates the highest accuracy.In summary,the combined hydrological model minimizes discrepancies among individual models,significantly improving accuracy for monitoring large-scale TWSC.

Plastic mulch increases dryland wheat yield and water-use productivity,while straw mulch increases soil water storage

Amplifying drought stress and high precipitation variability impair dryland wheat production.These problems can potentially be minimized by using plastic mulch(PM)or straw mulch(SM).Therefore,wheat grain yield,soil water storage,soil temperature and water-use productivity of PM and SM treatments were compared with no mulch(CK)treatment on dryland wheat over a period of eight seasons.Compared to the CK treatment,PM and SM treatments on average significantly increased grain yield by 12.6 and 10.5%,respectively.Compared to the CK treatment,SM treatment significantly decreased soil daily temperature by 0.57,0.60 and 0.48℃ for the whole seasons,growing periods and summer fallow periods,respectively.In contrast,compared to the CK treatment,PM treatment increased soil daily temperature by 0.44,0.51 and 0.27℃ for the whole seasons,growing periods and summer fallow periods,respectively.Lower soil temperature under SM allowed greater soil water storage than under PM.Soil water storage pre-seeding was 17%greater under the SM than under the PM treatment.Soil water storage post-harvest was similar for the PM and SM treatments,but evapotranspiration was 4.5%higher in the SM than in the PM treatment.Consequently,water-use productivity was 6.6%greater under PM than under the SM treatment.Therefore,PM treatment increased dryland wheat yield and water-use productivity,while straw mulch increased soil water storage.

Impacts of artificial dams on terrestrial water storage changes and the Earth's elastic load response during 1950-2016: A case study of medium and large reservoirs in Chinese mainland

The construction of dams for intercepting and storing water has altered surface water distributions, landsea water exchanges, and the load response of the solid Earth. The lack of accurate estimation of reservoir properties through the land surface and hydrological models can lead to water storage simulation and extraction errors. This impact is particularly evident in many artificial reservoirs in China. The study aims to comprehensively assess the spatiotemporal distribution and trends of water storage in medium and large reservoirs(MLRs) in Chinese mainland during 1950-2016, and to investigate the gravity,displacement, and strain effects induced by the reservoir mass concentration using the load elasticity theory. In addition, the impoundment contributions of MLRs to the relative sea level changes were assessed using a sea-level equation. The results show impoundment increases in the MLRs during1950-2016, particularly in the Yangtze River(Changjiang) and southern basins, causing significant elastic load effects in the surrounding areas of the reservoirs and increasing the relative sea level in China's offshore. However, long-term groundwater estimation trends are overestimated and underestimated in the Yangtze River and southwestern basins, respectively, due to the neglect of the MLRs impacts or the uncertainty of the hydrological model's output(e.g., soil moisture, etc.). The construction of MLRs may reduce the water mass input from land to the ocean, thus slowing global sea level rise. The results of the impact of human activities on the regional water cycle provide important references and data support for improving the integration of hydrological models, evaluating Earth's viscoelastic responses under longterm reservoir storage, enhancing in-situ and satellite geodetic measurements, and identifying the main factors driving sea level changes.

Assessment of natural and anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial water storage in the Loess Plateau based on different types of GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions

Changes in water resource storage are inevitable due to climate change and human activities,thus understanding alterations in water storage within a specific region is imperative for the planning and management of water resources.Data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)satellite mission are extensively employed to analyze large-scale total terrestrial water storage anomalies(TWSA).In this study,we derived a more reliable TWSA using different types of GRACE gravity models,which served as the basis for evaluating spatial and temporal variations in total terrestrial water storage and its hydrological components(soil moisture and groundwater)across the Loess Plateau.Additionally,we analyzed the impact of natural and anthropogenic influences on water storage in the Loess Plateau,categorizing them into primary and secondary influences,utilizing data on climate and human activities.The findings revealed a declining trend in the overall TWSA of the Loess Plateau,with a rate of decrease at-0.65±0.05 cm/yr from 2003 to 2020(P<0.01).As the direct factors affecting TWSA,soil moisture dominated the change of TWSA before 2009,and groundwater dominated the change of TWSA after 2009.Spatially,there was variability in the changes of TWSA in the Loess Plateau.More in-depth studies showed that soil moisture changes in the study area were primarily driven by evapotranspiration and temperature,with precipitation and vegetation cover status playing a secondary role.Human activities had a secondary effect on soil moisture in some sub-regions.Population change and agricultural development were major factors in altering groundwater storage in the study area.Other than that,groundwater was influenced by natural factors to a limited extent.These findings provided valuable insights for local governments to implement proactive water management policies.

Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Yellow River Basin Under Global Warming

The increasing temperature in the Yellow River Basin has led to a rapid rise in the melting level height,at a rate of 5.98 m yr^(-1)during the cold season,which further contributes to the transition from snowfall to rainfall patterns.Between 1979 and 2020,there has been a decrease in snowfall in the Yellow River Basin at a rate of-3.03 mm dec^(-1),while rainfall has been increasing at a rate of 1.00 mm dec^(-1).Consequently,the snowfall-to-rainfall ratio(SRR)has decreased.Snowfall directly replenishes terrestrial water storage(TWS)in solid form until it melts,while rainfall is rapidly lost through runoff and evaporation,in addition to infiltrating underground or remaining on the surface.Therefore,the decreasing SRR accelerates the depletion of water resources.According to the surface water balance equation,the reduction in precipitation and runoff,along with an increase in evaporation,results in a decrease in TWS during the cold season within the Yellow River Basin.In addition to climate change,human activities,considering the region's dense population and extensive agricultural land,also accelerate the decline of TWS.Notably,irrigation accounts for the largest proportion of water withdrawals in the Yellow River Basin(71.8%)and primarily occurs during the warm season(especially from June to August).The impact of human activities and climate change on the water cycle requires further in-depth research.

Climate Characteristics in Three Gorges Reservoir Area after Water Storage and Its Impact on the Production Potential

Based on the meteorological data from 33 stations of Three Gorges Reservoir from 1960 to 2008,climate yield of rice,corn and winter wheat and the changes of climatic potential productivity after water storage in Three Gorges Reservoir were calculated by the dynamic statistic model of crop growth.The results showed that the temperature in Three Gorges Reservoir was fluctuant decreased before late 1980s,and warmed rapidly after the late 1980s.The precipitation had little change before the late 1990s and had a slight decrease after the late 1990s.Sunshine hours were more in 1960s and 1970s,and then it changed little after 1980s.After water storage,the temperature increased in Three Gorges Reservoir as a whole.The precipitation decreased in the south of Three Gorges Reservoir,while it increased in the northwest of Three Gorges Reservoir.The sunshine hours were reduced except that in the vicinity of Dianjiang.After water storage,climatic potential productivity of rice decreased in the northwest and the northeast,while it increased in the south of Three Gorges Reservoir.The climatic potential productivity of corn decreased in the northeast and the southwest,but increased in the rest of Three Gorges Reservoir.The climatic potential productivity of winter wheat increased almost in total.

Effect of vegetation on soil water retention and storage in a semi-arid alpine forest catchment

The runoff generated from mountainous regions is recognized as the main water source for inland river basins in arid environments. Thus, the mechanisms by which catchments retain water in soils are to be understood. The water storage capacity of soil depends on its depth and capacity to retain water under gravita- tional drainage and evapotranspiration. The latter can be studied through soil water retention curve （SWRC）, which is closely related to soil properties such as texture, bulk density, porosity, soil organic carbon conteMt, and so on. The present study represented SWRCs using HYDRUS-1D. In the present study, we measured pl^ysical and hydraulic properties of soil samples collected from Sabina przewalskii forest （south-facing slope with highest solar radiation）, shrubs （west-facing slope with medium radiation）, and Picea crassifolia forest （north-facing slope with lowest radiation）, and analyzed the differences in soil water storage capacity of these soil samples. Soil water content of those three vegetation covers were also measured to validate the soil water storage capacity and to analyze the relationship between soil organic matter content and soil water content. Statistical analysis showed that different vegetation covers could lead to different soil bulk densities and differences in soil water retention on the three slope aspects. Sand content, porosity, and organic carbon content of the P. crassifolia forest were rela- tively greater compared with those of the S. przewalskii forest and shrubs. However, silt content and soil bulk density were relatively smaller than those in the S. przewalskii forest and shrubs. In addition, there was a sig- nificant linear positive relationship between averaged soil water content and soil organic matter content （P〈0.0001）. However, this relationship is not significant in the P. crassifolia forest. As depicted in the SWRCs, the water storage capacity of the soil was 39.14% and 37.38% higher in the P. crassifolia forest than in the S. przewalskii forest and shrubs, respectively, at a similar soil depth.

Terrestrial water storage changes over the Pearl River Basin from GRACE and connections with Pacific climate variability

Time-variable gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment （GRACE） satellite mission are used to study terrestrial water storage （TWS） changes over the Pearl River Basin （PRB） for the period 2003-Nov. 2014. TWS estimates from GRACE generally show good agreement with those from two hydrological models GLDAS and WGHM. But they show different capability of detecting significant TWS changes over the PRB. Among them, WGHM is likely to underestimate the seasonal variability of TWS, while GRACE detects long- term water depletions over the upper PRB as was done by hydrological models, and observes significant water increases around the Longtan Reservoir （LTR） due to water impoundment. The heavy drought in 2011 caused by the persistent precipitation deficit has resulted in extreme low surface runoff and water level of the LTR. Moreover, large variability of summer and autumn precipitation may easily trigger floods and droughts in the rainy season in the PRB, especially for summer, as a high correlation of 0.89 was found between precipitation and surface runoff. Generally, the PRB TWS was negatively correlated with El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events. However, the modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） may impact this relationship, and the significant TWS anomaly was likely to occur in the peak of PDO phase as they agree well in both of the magnitude and timing of peaks. This indicates that GRACE-based TWS could be a valuable parameter for studying climatic in- fluences in the PRB.

Changjiang River sediment delivering into the sea in response to water storage of Sanxia Reservoir in 2003

The Sanxia Reservoir on the Changjiang River stored water from 1 to 10 June and from 25 October to 5 November in 2003, elevating the water level to 135 and 139 m above mean sea level at the dam, respectively. A monthly dataset of water discharge, suspended sediment concentration （SSC） and sediment load of the Changjiang River from 1953 to 2003 measured at the Datong Hydrological Gauging Station of the downstreammost Changjiang River was mainly used to examine the Changjiang River sediment delivering into the sea in 2003 in response to the Sanxia Reservoir water storages in the same year. The results show that （1） compared with those in 2002, 2001, and the multi-yearly （1953-2000） average, both annual SSC and sediment load at Datong in 2003 were markedly reduced, and they were even smaller than the multi-yearly （1953-2000） minimum, although the annual runoff in 2003 did not change largely; and （2） compared with those in the corresponding months in 2002, 2001 and the multi-monthly average from 1953 to 2000, monthly SSC and sediment load at Datong both in June and November of 2003 were also markedly reduced, and those in June 2003 were even smaller than the multi-monthly minimum from 1953 to 2000. These may indicate that sediment sedimentation in the Sanxia Reservoir resulting from the Sanxia Reservoir water storage should be the main cause of the decreased annual and monthly SSC and sediment load of the Changjiang River into the sea in 2003. Besides, it seems that the Sanxia Reservoir water storage in the early June （flood season） of 2003 had more impacts on the decreased monthly SSC into the sea than that in the late October and early November （approximately non-flood season） of 2003.

Revealing Storage-area Relationship of Open Water in Ungauged Subalpine Wetland-Napahai in Northwest Yunnan, China

Mountains and plateaus in Southwest China contain many subalpine and alpine wetlands, with signifieant hydroecological functions. But ungauged or poorly gauged eonditions limit the study and understanding of hydrological regimes of these wetland types. This study selects an ungauged subalpine wetland - Napahai in Northwest Yunnan, China - as a case for developing a practical approach to revealing its storage-area relationship of open water. A Trimble R8 GNSS （Global Navigation Satellites Systems） RTK （Real-time Kinematic system） and sonar fathometer were used to survey fine- resolution elevation data and generate a digital elevation model of the Napahai Wetland. Forty-four Landsat images from 1987 to 2Oll were collected, and the Normalized Difference Water Index was used to classify open water features in the area. The area of open water in Napahai was ealculated for each phase. With these data and a developed conceptual model, the storage of open water for each phase was estimated using ArcGIS tools. Both storage and area of open water showed significant intra-annual and inter-annual variations. In the rainy season, the monthly change of average storage of open water in Napahai showed about 1-2 months lag behind mean monthly rainfall. The storage-area relationship of open water was well fit by a power function equation （R2=0.91, n=44）. This study indicates that if detailedelevations are available for similarly ungauged subalpine wetlands in Southwest China, researchers can use this practical approach to estimate multi- temporal areas and storages and reveal the storage- area relationship of open water in the wetlands. The study provided valuable information of this ease wetland for optimizing its hydro-ecological managements and a new method to wetland researchers and managers for the hydrological study of similarly ungauged wetland complex.

Method for calculating ecological water storage and ecological water requirement of marsh

As one of the most typical wetlands,marsh plays an important role in hydrological and economic aspects,especially in keeping biological diversity.In this study,the definition and connotation of the ecological water storage of marsh is discussed for the first time,and its distinction and relationship with ecological water requirement are also analyzed.Furthermore,the gist and method of calculating ecological water storage and ecological water requirement have been provided,and Momoge wetland has been given as an example of calculation of the two variables.Ecological water use of marsh can be ascertained according to ecological water storage and ecological water requirement.For reasonably spatial and temporal variation of water storage and rational water resources planning,the suitable quantity of water supply to marsh can be calculated according to the hydrological conditions,ecological demand and actual water resources.

Aboveground Biomass and Water Storage Allocation in Alpine Willow Shrubs in the Qilian Mountains in China

The aboveground biomass allocation and water relations in alpine shrubs can provide useful information on analyzing their ecological and hydrological functions in alpine regions. The objectives of this study were to compare the aboveground biomass allocation, water storage ratio and distribution between foliage/woody components,and to investigate factors affecting aboveground biomass allocation and water storage ratio in alpine willow shrubs in the Qilian Mountains, China. Three experimental sites were selected along distance gradients from the riverside in the Hulu watershed in the Qilian Mountains. The foliage, woody component biomass, and water allocation of Salix cupularis Rehd.and Salix oritrepha Schneid. shrubs were measured using the selective destructive method. The results indicated that the foliage component had higher relative water and biomass storage than the woody component in the upper part of the crown in individual shrubs. However, the woody component was the major biomass and water storage component in the whole shrub level for S. cupularis and S.oritrepha. Moreover, the foliage/woody component biomass ratio decreased from the top to the basal level of shrubs. The relative water storage allocation was significantly affected by species types, but was not affected by sites and interaction between species and sites. Meanwhile, relative water storage was affectedby sites as well as by interaction between sites and species type.

Analysis of terrestrial water storage changes in the Shaan-Gan-Ning Region using GPS and GRACE/GFO

Both the Global Positioning System(GPS)and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)/GRACE Follow-On(GFO)provide effective tools to infer surface mass changes.In this paper,we combined GPS,GRACE/GFO spherical harmonic(SH)solutions and GRACE/GFO mascon solutions to analyze the total surface mass changes and terrestrial water storage(TWS)changes in the Shaan-Gan-Ning Region(SGNR)over the period from December 2010 to February 2021.To improve the reliability of GPS inversion results,an improved regularization Laplace matrix and monthly optimal regularization parameter estimation strategy were employed to solve the ill-posed problem.The results show that the improved Laplace matrix can suppress the edge effects better than that of the traditional Laplace matrix,and the corre-lation coefficient and standard deviation(STD)between the original signal and inversion results from the traditional and improved Laplace matrix are 0.84 and 0.88,and 17.49 mm and 15.16 mm,respectively.The spatial distributions of annual amplitudes and time series changes for total surface mass changes derived from GPS agree well with GRACE/GFO SH solutions and mascon solutions,and the correlation coefficients of total surface mass change time series between GPS and GRACE/GFO SH solutions,GPS and GRACE/GFO mascon solutions are 0.80 and 0.77.However,the obvious differences still exist in local regions.In addition,the seasonal characteristics,increasing and decreasing rate of TWS change time series derived from GPS,GRACE/GFO SH and mascon solutions agree well with the Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS)hydrological model in the studied area,and generally consistent with the precipitation data.Meanwhile,TWS changes derived from GPS and GRACE mascon solutions in the SGNR are more reliable than those of GRACE SH solutions over the period from January 2016 to June 2017(the final operation phase of the GRACE mission).

Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage in River Basins of China Projected by RegCM4

In this study, a historic simulation covering the period from 1951 to 2000 and three projected scenario simulations covering 2001-2050 were conducted em- ploying the regional climate model RegCM4 to detect the changes of terrestrial water storage （TWS） in major river basins of China, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES）： A1B, A2, and B1. The historic simula- tion revealed that the variations of TWS, which are dominated by precipitation in the basins, rely highly on their climatic features. Compared with the historic simu- lation, the changes of TWS in the scenario simulations showed strong regional differences. However, for all sce- narios, TWS was found to increase most in Northeast China and surrounding mountains around the Tibetan Plateau, and decrease most in eastern regions of China. Unlike the low seasonal variations of TWS in arid areas, the TWS showed strong seasonal variations in eastern monsoon areas, with the maximum changes usually oc- curring in summer, when TWS increases most in a year. Among the three scenario simulations, TWS increased most in Songhua River Basin of B1 scenario, and de- creased most in Pearl River Basin of A2 scenario and Hal River Basin of A1B scenario, accompanied by different annual trends and seasonal variations.

Lake water storage change estimation and its linkage with terrestrial water storage change in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Tibetan Plateau(TP) lakes are important water resources,which are experiencing quick expansion in recent decades.Previous researches mainly focus on analyzing the relationship between terrestrial water storage(TWS) change and lake water storage(LWS) change in the total inner TP,it is still lack of researches about the spatial difference and the characteristic of sub-region in the inner TP.In this study,we estimated the area change of 34 lakes by using Landsat images in the northeastern TP during 1976–2013,and LWS change by using the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission(SRTM).The results suggested that LWS had shrunk from 1976 to 1994,and then expanded quickly until 2013.LWS had a serious decrease by 13.6 Gt during 1976–1994,and then it increased quickly by 35.4 Gt during 1994–2013.We estimated TWS change,soil moisture change,and permafrost degradation based on the satellite data and related models during 2003–2013.The results indicated that their changing rates were 1.86 Gt/y,0.22 Gt/y,and –0.19 Gt/y,respectively.We also calculated the change of groundwater based on the mass balance with a decreasing trend of –0.054 Gt/y.The results suggested that the cause of TWS change was the increase of LWS.We analyzed the cause of lake change according to water balance,and found that the primary cause of lake expansion was the increasing precipitation(80.7%),followed by glacier meltwater(10.3%) and permafrost degradation(9%).The spatial difference between LWS change and TWS change should be studied further,which is important to understand the driving mechanism of water resources change.

Water storage changes and balances in Africa observed by GRACE and hydrologic models

Continental water storage plays a major role in Earth's climate system.However,temporal and spatial variations of continental water are poorly known,particularly in Africa.Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)satellite mission provides an opportunity to estimate terrestrial water storage(TWS)variations at both continental and river-basin scales.In this paper,seasonal and secular variations of TWS within Africa for the period from January 2003 to July 2013 are assessed using monthly GRACE coefficients from three processing centers(Centre for Space Research,the German Research Centre for Geo-sciences,and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory).Monthly grids from Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS)-I and from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)-3B43 models are also used in order to understand the reasons of increasing or decreasing water storage.Results from GRACE processing centers show similar TWS estimates at seasonal timescales with some differences concerning inter-annual trend variations.The largest annual signals of GRACE TWS are observed in Zambezi and Okavango River basins and in Volta River Basin.An increasing trend of 11.60 mm/a is found in Zambezi River Basin and of 9 mm/a in Volta River Basin.A phase shift is found between rainfall and GRACE TWS GRACE TWS is preceded by rainfall by 2-3 months in parts of south central Africa.Comparing GLDAS rainfall with TRMM model,it is found that GLDAS has a dry bias from TRMM model.

Terrestrial water storage variation in Hebei plain area of China,based on ground surface gravimetry

Variation of terrestrial water storage in the Hebei plain area from March 2010 to June 2014 was studied using ground gravimetry combined with vertical displacement data from the Global Navigation Satellite System.Results show that observed gravity variation in this area increased continuously,basically reflecting a trend toward land subsidence.With the effect of this subsidence removed,a dominantnegative change in gravity variation was evident,reflecting an average rate of decrease in terrestrial water in this area of 0.10±0.053 m/y,and this is equivalent to a volume of 81.5±43.2×108 m^(3)and is consistent with the spatial distribution of groundwater change from measured hydrologic data.These results can be an essential reference and supplement for the study of terrestrial water variation in the Hebei plain area,and indicate that ground surface gravimetry can be used as an important mean for studying changes in terrestrial water.

Variations of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Yangtze River Basin under Climate Change Scenarios

In this study, the water balance-based Precipitation-Evapotranspiration-Runoff (PER) method combined with the land surface model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) was used to estimate the spatiotemporal variations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) for two periods, 1982-2005 (baseline) and 2071-2100, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2 in the Yangtze River basin. The results show that the estimated TWS during the baseline period and under the two future climate scenarios have similar seasonal amplitudes of 60-70 mm. The higher values of TWS appear in June during the baseline period and under the B2 scenario, whereas the TWS under A2 shows two peaks in response to the related precipitation pattern. It also shows that the TWS is recharged from February to June during the baseline period, but it is replenished from March to June under the A2 and B2 scenarios. An analysis of the standard derivation of seasonal and interannual TWS time series under the three scenarios demonstrates that the seasonal TWS of the southeastern part of the Yangtze River basin varies remarkably and that the southeastern and central parts of the basin have higher variations in interannual TWS. With respect to the first mode of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), the inverse-phase change in seasonal TWS mainly appears across the Guizhou-Sichuan-Shaanxi belt, and the entire basin generally represents a synchronous change in interannual TWS. As a whole, the TWS under A2 presents a larger seasonal variation whereas that under B2 displays a greater interannual variation. These results imply that climate change could trigger severe disasters in the southeastern and central parts of the basin.

Water storage variations in the Poyang Lake Basin estimated from GRACE and satellite altimetry

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） satellite mission provides a unique opportunity to quantitatively study terrestrial water storage（TWS） variations. In this paper,the terrestrial water storage variations in the Poyang Lake Basin are recovered from the GRACE gravity data from January 2003 to March 2014 and compared with the Global Land Data Assimilation System（GLDAS） hydrological models and satellite altimetry. Furthermore, the impact of soil moisture content from GLDAS and rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission（TRMM） on TWS variations are investigated. Our results indicate that the TWS variations from GRACE, GLDAS and satellite altimetry have a general consistency. The TWS trends in the Poyang Lake Basin determined from GRACE, GLDAS and satellite altimetry are increasing at 0.0141 km^3/a, 0.0328 km^3/a and 0.0238 km^3/a,respectively during the investigated time period. The TWS is governed mainly by the soil moisture content and dominated primarily by the precipitation but also modulated by the flood season of the Yangtze River as well as the lake and river exchange water.

Improving the simulation of terrestrial water storage anomalies over China using a Bayesian model averaging ensemble approach

The ability to estimate terrestrial water storage(TWS)is essential for monitoring hydrological extremes(e.g.,droughts and floods)and predicting future changes in the hydrological cycle.However,inadequacies in model physics and parameters,as well as uncertainties in meteorological forcing data,commonly limit the ability of land surface models(LSMs)to accurately simulate TWS.In this study,the authors show how simulations of TWS anomalies(TWSAs)from multiple meteorological forcings and multiple LSMs can be combined in a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)ensemble approach to improve monitoring and predictions.Simulations using three forcing datasets and two LSMs were conducted over China's Mainland for the period 1979–2008.All the simulations showed good temporal correlations with satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment during 2004–08.The correlation coefficient ranged between 0.5 and 0.8 in the humid regions(e.g.,the Yangtze river basin,Huaihe basin,and Zhujiang basin),but was much lower in the arid regions(e.g.,the Heihe basin and Tarim river basin).The BMA ensemble approach performed better than all individual member simulations.It captured the spatial distribution and temporal variations of TWSAs over China's Mainland and the eight major river basins very well;plus,it showed the highest R value(>0.5)over most basins and the lowest root-mean-square error value(<40 mm)in all basins of China.The good performance of the BMA ensemble approach shows that it is a promising way to reproduce long-term,high-resolution spatial and temporal TWSA data.