Coping with water scarcity in Kashafroud G-WADI Basin, Iran: climate change or growing demands?

This paper assesses the various factors contributing to climate change in the region of the Kashaffoud G-WADI Basin in Iron; quanti- fies the local impacts of climate change, especially local water scarcity; and simulates and discusses several proposed methods to combat these impacts. Hydrologic and climatic data are statistically analyzed and VENSIM modeling is used for various simulations of water resources in the basin. Results show that the natural climate changes affecting Kashafroud Basin include increased tempera- ture, less rainfall, more frequent droughts, and changes in rainfall patterns, all of which are local symptoms of climate change in recent years. However, the most important challenge in the basin is the overexploitation of surface and groundwater resources to meet the growing water demands, especially domestic needs. Changes in land use, reallocation of water uses, groundwater depletion, and deg- radation of the quality of surface waters have all contributed to significant changes in the environmental features of this basin, and are the main reason why water demands now exceed the renewal capacity of the basin. Proposed response measures include reallocation of resources among different uses, inter-basin water ~ansfers, drawing water from six small dams on the Kashafroud River, reducing groundwater extraction, and replacing groundwater extraction for agriculture by reuse of urban wastewater. This study concludes that although changes in global climatic pararneters have altered environmental features in the basin, local factors, such as water utilization beyond the renewable capacity of the basin, are more significant in worsening the impacts of climate change.

Assessment of rehabilitation strategies for lakes affected by anthropogenic and climatic changes: A case study of the Urmia Lake, Iran

Over the last three decades,more than half of the world's large lakes and wetlands have experienced significant shrinkage,primarily due to climate change and extensive water consumption for agriculture and other human needs.The desiccation of lakes leads to severe environmental,economic,and social repercussions.Urmia Lake,located in northwestern Iran and representing a vital natural ecosystem,has experienced a volume reduction of over 90.0%.Our research evaluated diverse water management strategies within the Urmia Lake basin and prospects of inter-basin water transfers.This study focused on strategies to safeguard the environmental water rights of the Urmia Lake by utilizing the modeling and simulating(MODSIM)model.The model simulated changes in the lake's water volume under various scenarios.These included diverting water from incoming rivers,cutting agricultural water use by 40.0%,releasing dam water in non-agricultural seasons,treated wastewater utilization,and inter-basin transfers.Analytical hierarchy process(AHP)was utilized to analyze the simulation results.Expert opinions with AHP analysis,acted as a multi-criteria decision-making tool to evaluate the simulation and determine the optimal water supply source priority for the Urmia Lake.Our findings underscore the critical importance of reducing agricultural water consumption as the foremost step in preserving the lake.Following this,inter-basin water transfers are suggested,with a detailed consideration of the inherent challenges and limitations faced by the source watersheds.It is imperative to conduct assessments on the impacts of these transfers on the downstream users and the potential environmental risks,advocating for a diplomatic and cooperative approach with adjacent country.This study also aims to forecast the volumes of water that can be transferred under different climatic conditions—drought,normal,and wet years—to inform strategic water management planning for the Urmia Lake.According to our projection,implementing the strategic scenarios outlined could significantly augment the lake's level and volume,potentially by 3.57×109–9.38×109 m3 over the coming 10 a and 3.57×109–10.70×109 m3 in the subsequent 15 a.

Ecological and environmental water demand of the lakes in the Haihe-Luanhe Basin of North China

The purpose of this paper is to present a brief concept of the ecological and environmental water demand of lake. The present situation and affecting factors of lake ecological system in the Haihe\|Luanhe Basin of North China was analyzed. The calculating method of the ecological and environmental water demand of the lake basis on the water body and the calculating method of the ecological and environmental water demand of the lake basis on the aquatic ecosystem, wetland and vegetation were compared and discussed. As the examples of Baiyangdian Lake and Beidagang Lake in Haihe\|Luanhe river basin, the ecological and environmental water demand of the two lakes was calculated to be 27×10\+8m\+3. It is 6.75 times to the water demand according to the calculating method of the ecological and environmental water demand of the lake basis on the water body. The research result indicated: (1) The calculating methods of the ecological and environmental water demand of the lake basis on the aquatic ecosystem should be better than only basis on the water body of lake. (2) The data, such as area of the vegetation kind around and in the lake, the vegetation coefficient, the evaporating amount of the vegetation and the vegetation water demand itself around and in the lake are lack and urgent need. Some suggestions for controlling and regulating the water resource of the lake in North China were proposed.

Ecological water demand of natural vegetation in the lower Tarim River

We have appraised the relationships between soil moisture, groundwater depth, and plant species diversity in the lower reaches of the Tarim River in western China, by analyzing field data from 25 monitoring wells across eight study sites and 25 permanent vegetation survey plots. It is noted that groundwater depth, soil moisture and plant species diversity are closely related. It has been proven that the critical phreatic water depth is five meters in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. We acquired the mean phreatic evaporation of different groundwater levels every month by averaging the two results of phreatic evaporation using the Qunk and Averyanov formulas. Based on different vegetation types and acreage with different groundwater depth, the total ecological water demand （EWD） of natural vegetation in 2005 was 2.4×10^8 m^3 in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. Analyzing the monthly EWD, we found that the EWD in the growth season （from April to September） is 81% of the year＇s total EWD. The EWD in May, June and July was 47% of the year＇s total EWD, which indicates the best time for dispensing artificial water. This research aims at realizing the sustainable development of water resources and provides a scientific basis for water resource management and sound collocation of the Tarim River Basin.

Methodology to determine regional water demand for instream flow and its application in the Yellow River Basin

In order to realistically reflect the difference between regional water demand for instream flow and river ecological water demand as well as to resolve the problem that water demand may be counted repeatedly, a concept of regional water demand for minimum instream flow have been developed. The concept was used in the process of determining river functions and calculating ecological water demand for a river. The Yellow River watershed was used to validate the calculation methodology for regional water demand. CaIculation results indicate that there are significant differences in water demands among the different regions. The regional water demand at the downstream of the Yellow River is the largest about 14.893 × 10^9 m^3/a. The regional water demand of upstream, Lanzhou-Hekou section is the smallest about -5.012 × 10^9 m^3/a. The total ecological water demand of the Yellow River Basin is 23.06 × 10^9 m^3/a, about the 39% of surface water resources of the water resources should not exceed 61% in the Yellow River Basin. Yellow River Basin. That means the maximum available surface The regional river ecological water demands at the Lower Section of the Yellow River and Longyangxia-Lanzhou Section exceed the surface water resources produced in its region and need to be supplemented from other regions through the water rational planning of watershed water resources. These results provides technical basis for rational plan of water resources of the Yellow River Basin.

Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China

The overall goal of this paper is to examine impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance and their consequences on agricultural production in ten river basins in China. To realize this goal, China Water Simulation Model （CWSM） is used to analyze three alternative climate scenarios （A1B, A2 and B2）. The results show that the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance differ largely among alternative scenarios. While significant impacts of climate change on water balance will occur under the A1B scenario, the impacts of climate change under the A2 and B2 scenarios will be marginal. Under the A1B scenario, the water shortage in the river basins located in the northern China will become more serious, particularly in Liaohe and Haihe river basins, but the other river basins in the southern China will improve their water balance situations. Despite larger impacts of climate change on water balance in the northern China, its impacts on total crops＇ production will be moderate if farmers would be able to reallocate water among crops and adjust irrigated and rainfed land. The paper concludes with some policy implications.

System dynamics model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity and its application

A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of existing water utilization, （2） water conservation/saving, and （3） water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.

Ecological water demand:the case of the slope systems in the East Liaohe River Basin

The ecological water demand (EWD) is the least water amount required to maintain the structure and the function of the special eco-system and the temporal scale of a study on the EWD must be a season's time. Based on GIS and RS with the source information of hydrological data of 46 hydrological gauges covering 52 years and the digital images of Landsat TM in 1986, 1996 and 2000, the landscape patterns, precipitation and runoff in the East Liaohe River Basin were analyzed. With the result of the above analysis, the spatial and temporal changes of the ecological water demand in the slope systems (EWDSS) of the East Liaohe River Basin (ELRB) were derived. Landscapes in the ELRB are dispersed and strongly disturbed by human actions. The hydrological regime in ELRB has distinct spatial variations. The average annual EWDSS in the ELRB is 504.72 mm (324.08-618.89 mm), and the average EWDSS in the growth season (from May to September) is 88.29% of the year's total EWDSS .The ultimate guaranteeing ratio of the EWDSS in ELRB is 90%. The scarce EWDSS area in the whole year and in the growth season are 60.47% and 74.01% of the entire basin respectively. The trend of scarce EWDSS area is most serious according to the quantity and area of scarce EWDSS regions.

A preliminary study on ecological waterdemand estimation in the arid region─A case in the Qaidam Basin

The paper emphasized the relationship between environment and water taking ecological demand water (EWD) in the Qaidam Basin─an inner basin in northwestern China, as a key issue to discuss based on landscape umpping. First of all. the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem can be reflected well by landscape pattern; secondly, landscape patterns adjust closely with environmental changes; finally, water condition is the key ecological factor for landscape pattern in the arid region.The landsat TM image of 1:100,000 on September 22, 1996 were calibrated with topographical map of the same scale, and then landscape patterns were interpreted and mapped. As a result the Qaidam Basin could be divided into 14 main types, including 67 subtypes. Concerning the characteristics of the EWD of each sub-type, the EWD in the whole basin could be estimated according to the following formula:V= (E - P ) * S = r (KEo - P ) * S Where, V is the ecological demand for Water (m3), E is the evaporation potential on terrestrial surface (m). P is the precipitation in landscape unit (m), S is the area of landscape unit (m2), Eo is the evaporation potential on water surface (m), K is the evaporation coefficient, and r is the coverage.According to the results, the ecological demand for water of desert vegetation is about 9,65×108m3, while it is about 24.48×108m3 for the lake in the inner basin. Therefore, the total EWD occupies approximately 65.7％ of the total water resources in the basin. In conclusion, the quantitative method based on landscape ecological mapping is feasible, which attentively transfers the 'point'information to the 'area'. However, the preliminary results are expccted to improve by further field delta.

The Impact of Water Pricing Policy on Local Environment-An Analysis of Three Irrigation Districts in China

As a high priority in dealing with the problem of water scarcity, the effect of water pricing policy remains a controversial issue, especially the environmental effect. Using household-level panel data of three irrigation districts （IDs） in the northern China, this paper probes the potential impact of water price rising on local environment. The examination shows that farmers will reduce the rice area as a response to the rising surface water prices. The changing cropping pattern will exert three-fold environmental impacts, including the dropping groundwater level resulting from the reduction of seepage and percolation of irrigated water and overexploitation of groundwater, the negative effect of non-point pollution from fertilizer and pesticide application, and the loss of field irrigation facilities. Water pricing is not a valid means of significantly reducing agricultural water consumption due to the substitution of groundwater for surface water, it will lead to negative environmental effect. It is an imperative task for Chinese government to improve the management efficiency at IDs.

Analysis of Water Resources Supply and Demand and Security of Water Resources Development in Irrigation Regions of the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

Based on the data for meteorology, hydrology, soil, planting, vegetation, and socio-economic development of the irrigation region in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, Northwest China, the model of balance of water supply and demand in the region was established, and the security of water resource was assessed, from which the results that the effects of unified management of water resources in the Heihe River basin between Gansu Province and Inner Mongolia on regional hydrology are significant with a decrease in water supply diverted from Heihe River and an increase in groundwater extracted. In addition, it was found that the groundwater level has been steadily decreasing due to over pumping and decrease in recharges. In present year （2003）, the volume of potential groundwater in the irrigation districts is far small because of the groundwater overdraft; even in the particular regions, there is no availability of groundwater resources for use. By 2003, water supply is not sufficient to meet the water demand in the different irrigation districts, the sustainable development and utilization of water resources are not secured, and the water supply crisis occurs in Pingchuan irrigation district. Achieving water security for the sustainable development of society, agriculture, economy, industry, and livelihoods while maintaining or improving the abilities of the management and planning of water resources, determining of the reasonable percentage between water supply and groundwater utilization and water saving in agricultural irrigation are taken into account. If this does not occur, it is feared that the present performance of water development and planning may further aggravate the problem of scarcities of water resources and further damage the fragile ecological system.

Irrigation Water Demand Model as a Comparative Tool for Assessing Effects of Land Use Changes for Agricultural Crops in Fraser Valley, Canada

Available water for human needs and agriculture is a growing global concern. Agriculture uses approximately 70% of global freshwater, mainly for irrigation. The Lower Fraser Valley (LFV), British Columbia, is one of the most productive agricultural regions in Canada, supporting livestock production and a wide variety of crops. Water scarcity is a growing concern that threatens the long-term productivity, sustainability, and economic viability of the LFV’s agriculture. We used the BC Agriculture Water Demand Model as a tool to determine how crop choice, irrigation system, and land-use changes can affect predicted water requirements under these different conditions, which can aid stakeholders to formulate better management decisions. We conducted a comparative assessment of the irrigation water demand of seven major commercial crops, by distinct soil management groups, at nineteen representative sites, that use both sprinkler vs drip irrigation. Drip irrigation was consistently more water-efficient than sprinkler irrigation for all crops. Of the major commercial crops assessed, raspberries were the most efficient in irrigation water demand, while forage and pasture had the highest calculated irrigation water demand. Significant reductions in total irrigation water demand (up to 57%) can be made by switching irrigation systems and/or crops. This assessment can aid LFV growers in their land-use choices and could contribute to the selection of water management decisions and agricultural policies.

An Integrated Framework for Regional Assessment of Water, Energy, and Nutrients from Food Loss of Selected Crops in the Lower Fraser Valley, Canada

Although there is no global shortage of food or water, food security has not been achieved, as human activity has turned these vital resources into “waste”. Wasted food not only loses valuable water resources but embedded calories of human energy and nutrients for healthy human populations. The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, in addressing these concerns, focuses on a global scale largely on an economic estimate of individual components of energy or water or nutrient loss. It is suggested that more information is required through local or regional assessments to provide better estimates, incorporating regional factors of the losses along the food supply chain. To address this suggestion, this study focused on an intensive agricultural and rapidly urbanizing region of Canada, the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. Seven selected crops, including annual crops such as green peas, sweet corn and potato, and perennial crops that included three berry crops were assessed for their water, both constituent and virtual, as well as embedded energy, protein, and Vitamin C. Annual virtual water losses were higher for sprinkler than drip irrigation, ranging from 82 × 106 kg of water for strawberry to 7570 × 106 kg for blueberry. These high virtual water losses estimated along the food chain confirm the significance of food loss impacts on local water resources. Estimates of losses of food in kg were highest at the consumer level along the food chain and it was estimated that wasted food from the seven crops selected would have supplied the protein and caloric energy of over 33,000 men per year and Vitamin C of about 240,000 men per year. This assessment increases the awareness of food loss impacts from a regional perspective and provides a framework for future research on both environmental and nutritional implications of wasted food.

Synthetic Reconstruction of Water Demand Time Series for Real Time Demand Forecasting

The forecasting of the demand applied to water supply systems has been an important tool to realize time control. The use of the time series to do the forecasting of the demand is the main way that has been used by researchers. By this way, the need of a complete time demand series increases. This work presents two ways to reconstruct the water demand time series synthetically, using the Average Reconstruction Method and Fourier Method. Both the methods were considered interesting to do the synthetic reconstruction and able to complete the time series, but the Fourier Method showed better results and a better fitness to approximation of the water consumption pattern.

The 3D simulation and optimized management model of groundwater systems based on eco-environmental water demand

Through the study of mutual process between groundwater systems and eco-environmental water demand, the eco-environmental water demand is brought into groundwater systems model as the important water consumption item and unification of groundwater抯 economic, environmental and ecological functions were taken into account. Based on eco-environmental water demand at Da抋n in Jilin province, a three-dimensional simulation and optimized management model of groundwater systems was established. All water balance components of groundwater systems in 1998 and 1999 were simulated with this model and the best optimal exploitation scheme of groundwater systems in 2000 was determined, so that groundwater resource was efficiently utilized and good economic, ecologic and social benefits were obtained.

A Hybrid Neural Network-based Approach for Forecasting Water Demand

Water is a vital resource.It supports a multitude of industries,civilizations,and agriculture.However,climatic conditions impact water availability,particularly in desert areas where the temperature is high,and rain is scarce.Therefore,it is crucial to forecast water demand to provide it to sectors either on regular or emergency days.The study aims to develop an accurate model to forecast daily water demand under the impact of climatic conditions.This forecasting is known as a multivariate time series because it uses both the historical data of water demand and climatic conditions to forecast the future.Focusing on the collected data of Jeddah city,Saudi Arabia in the period between 2004 and 2018,we develop a hybrid approach that uses Artificial Neural Networks(ANN)for forecasting and Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm(PSO)for tuning ANNs’hyperparameters.Based on the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)metric,results show that the(PSO-ANN)is an accurate model for multivariate time series forecasting.Also,the first day is the most difficult day for prediction(highest error rate),while the second day is the easiest to predict(lowest error rate).Finally,correlation analysis shows that the dew point is the most climatic factor affecting water demand.

Analysis on water supply and demand of North China Plain

A water supply model and a water demand model are developed to exercise resources budgets of the North China Plain with a planning horizon of the year 2030. The budgets indicate that the North China Plain would face serious water stress from 1993 to 2000, and water resources available in the region can not meet the needs of the socioeconomic development and environment from 2000 to 2030. The south/north Water transfer project is the only option to solve the emerging water crisis.

Problems for water resources development in typical small karst drainage basins and countermeasures

In karst area water deficit is one of the main factors constraining sustainable economic development. In 1979 the comprehensive karstic observational field station was set up in Houzhai drainage basin located,\ in Puding county of Guizhou Province, which can represent most of the small karst drainage basins on the dividing line of the Guizhou Plateau. Geomorphology, water resources and water chemistry were investigated and observed. Based on comparisons of water supply with water demand and analysis of the main problems in water exploitation and utilization. it is found out that the water deficiency was not directly caused by the scarcity of natural water resources. The true reason is the insufficient capacity of water supply caused by the dismatch of the water and soil water resources which can be dealt with by building more irrigation works. Some solutions such as to build scientific basis for water exploitation and utilization and sustainable economic development in karst drainage basins on dividing line of the Guizhou Plateau.

Preliminary Study on Water Demand Law of 1-0 Rooted Cuttings of Populus szechuanica

In order to provide theoretical basis and technical support for the afforestation and artificial water supply of P.szechuanica in arid areas,the characteristics of water consumption of P.szechuanica were explored,and the law of water demand of P.szechuanica was grasped.In this paper,potted seedlings of 1-0 rooted cuttings of P.szechuanica were taken as research objects,and change situation of water consumption under different water control gradients was measured regularly by using weighing method,further analyzing dynamic change of water consumption of P.szechuanica and revealing water demand law of 1-0 rooted cuttings of P.szechuanica.The results showed that total change of water consumption of 1-0 rooted cuttings of P.szechuanica had"slow-fast-slow-fast"double-peak trend in the growth period of the current year,and corresponded with univariate linear relation(R^(2)=0.7137),with significant difference.In whole growth period,water consumption in August was the highest,which was 2.7 times of that in June and July and 1.5 times of that after September.In different water control treatments,the dynamic changes of daily and monthly water consumption were significantly different.In seven water control treatments,monthly water consumption was between(6315.95±1690.70)and(10105.28±3065.30)g/month,and mean was(8211.07±2308.23)g/month.With intensification of water control treatment,water consumption increased,but there was no seedling death due to water shortage.P.szechuanica has great plasticity in water demand,and can survive in both arid and humid environments.Meanwhile,it is revealed that P.szechuanica is the most widely distributed tree species in the region.

Water, Energy and Nutrient Losses from Food Wastage of Selected Crops in Three Agro-Climatic Zones in British Columbia, Canada

Food waste is a growing global concern. Data on the factors and magnitude are largely global estimates, thus local studies aid in providing information on the impacts of food waste. Three important agro-climatic zones in British Columbia and nine common crops, both annual and perennial, were selected to evaluate the environmental and nutritional implications of local food waste. Using Canadian estimates of total food waste, the constituent water, caloric content, protein, vitamin C, phosphorus and potassium wasted by each crop were estimated. Regionally, the total production and losses were the highest in the Lower Fraser Valley which had high production of potatoes and blueberries, followed by the Okanagan, with grapes and apples, and Vancouver Island, with potatoes. Virtual water was estimated by the BC Agriculture Water Calculator and used to assess the soil and climatic factors impacting the local water demand. Although soil texture seemed to influence water demand, the agro-climatic zone was the main factor controlling the water demand and the corresponding amount of water wasted. Dry agro-climatic zones had annual virtual water up to two times higher for the same crop and soil texture. Lower water demand crops, finer soils and more efficient irrigation systems were more congruent with water stress scenarios. Total losses for each region were based on conservative estimates and would have supplied the caloric energy and protein for over 40,000 adults, and vitamin C for over 300,000 adults for one year. Additionally, the total N, P and K wasted accounted for up to 32, 2 and 13 kg/ha respectively for common fertilizers used in British Columbia. This study confirmed the significance of food waste impacts on local water demand, human nutrition and soil management based on regional data for representative crops.