Critical chain construction with multi-resource constraints based on portfolio technology in South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Recently, the critical chain study has become a hot issue in the project management research field. The construction of the critical chain with multi-resource constraints is a new research subject. According to the system analysis theory and project portfolio theory, this paper discusses the creation of project portfolios based on the similarity principle and gives the definition of priority in multi-resource allocation based on quantitative analysis. A model with multi-resource constraints, which can be applied to the critical chain construction of the A-bid section in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, was proposed. Contrast analysis with the comprehensive treatment construction method and aggressive treatment construction method was carried out. This paper also makes suggestions for further research directions and subjects, which will be useful in improving the theories in relevant research fields.

Reliability model of organization management chain of South-to-North Water Diversion Project during construction period

In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, two basic forms （series connection state and mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection） of the organization management chain can be abstracted. The indispensability of each form has been studied and is described in this paper. Through analysis of the reliability of the two basic forms, reliability models of the organization management chain in the series connection state and the mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection have been set up.

Land Cover Changes and Drivers in the Water Source Area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China from 2000 to 2015

The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(MR-SNWDP)in China,with construction beginning in 2003,diverts water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to North China for residential,agriculture and industrial use.The water source area of the MR-SNWDP is the region that is most sensitive to and most affected by the construction of this water diversion project.In this study,we used Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM)and HJ-1 A/B images from 2000 to 2015 by an object-based approach with a hierarchical classification method for mapping land cover in the water source area.The changes in land cover were illuminated by transfer matrixes,single dynamic degree,slope zones and fractional vegetation cover(FVC).The results indicated that the area of cropland decreased by 31%and was replaced mainly by shrub over the past 15 years,whereas forest and settlements showed continuous increases of 29.2% and 77.7%,respectively.The changes in cropland were obvious in all slope zones and decreased most remarkably(–43.8%)in the slope zone above 25°.Compared to the FVC of forest and shrub,significant improvement was exhibited in the FVC of grassland,with a growth rate of 16.6%.We concluded that local policies,including economic development,water conservation and immigration resulting from the construction of the MR-SNWDP,were the main drivers of land cover changes;notably,they stimulated the substantial and rapid expansion of settlements,doubled the wetlands and drove the transformation from cropland to settlements in immigration areas.

Penalty model for delay of bidding section construction period in South-to-North Water Diversion Eastern Route Project from perspective of programs

According to the multi-project and program management theory, this paper analyzes the program generation principle and establishes a program based on progress goals. On the basis of the present situation of calculation of penalty for delay of the bidding section construction period with the critical path method, we studied the effects of contractor-induced delay of the bidding section construction period in detail, including the effects on the construction period of the bidding section itself, the earliest start times of the next bidding section and other subsequent bidding sections, and the construction period of the program, and then constructed a penalty model for delay of the bidding section construction period from the perspective of programs. Using the penalty model, we conducted a practical analysis of penalty for delay of the construction period of the Baoying station program in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The model can help determine the amount of penalty for delay of the construction period in bidding sections scientifically and reasonably,

Water diversion and agricultural production:Evidence from China

Water diversion can alleviate water shortages caused by the uneven distribution of water resources.China’s Southto-North Water Diversion Project(SNWD)is the largest water diversion project worldwide.Based on the prefecturelevel data of China’s Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2000 to 2020,this study employs an empirical strategy of Differencesin-Differences(DID)to analyze the impact of SNWD on agricultural production.The results show that SNWD has significantly increased agricultural production,measured by the agricultural value added.The estimated results of the benchmark model remain robust when the contemporaneous policy is addressed,an alternative outcome is used,subsamples are estimated,and alternative estimation techniques are employed.This study argues that the potential impact mechanism may be that SNWD significantly increases the acreage for cash crops but reduces that for grain crops.Heterogeneity analysis shows that in prefectures with high temperature or land potential,SNWD’s impact on agricultural value added is relatively low.In contrast,in areas with prolonged sunshine or high slopes,SNWD’s impact on agricultural value added is relatively large.Given the low added value of grain crops,the government should consider strengthening food security by subsidizing water supply to sustain grain production.

IMPACTS OF THE SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER DIVERSION PROJECTS (MIDDLE ROUTE)ON THE WATER ENVIRONMENT OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF THE HANJIANG RIVER

In this paper, according to the rule of unbalanced sediment transport and the analysis of field data, different water diversion schemes were theoretically studied, including the erosion and sedimentation trend as well as their impacts on the environment of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River. The results showed that the 95×10 8m 3 water diversion scheme will cause less erosion and water level decrease than the 15×10 8m 3 water diversion scheme. Using a water diversion scheme of 95×10 8m 3, the decrease of water quantity can impact the river hydrodynamic regime substantially and the environments of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River will be greatly affected. It is therefore necessary to develop new water resources or build projects to meet the need of the environment and the needs for navigation.

Price Analysis of Water Supply for South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The factors influencing the water supply price of a hydraulic project include natural conditions and economic policies. This paper thoroughly demonstrates the water price of South-to-North Water Transfer Project from the viewpoint of economic policies. It is considered that if the project is assigned as a profitable one and built depending on commercial loan from bank completely or mostly, the water price will be too high to be undertaken by users,and if the project places the public good at first while considering the economic benefit, its investment mainly relies on the state (national or local governments) appropriation and self-raised funds and a little from the bank loan on favorable terms, the price determined according to the principle of satisfying the cost and reasonable profit will be relatively lower and can be undertaken by the users in the North China where water shortage is serious. The problem of higher water price of agricultural irrigation to the north of the Yellow River can be tackled by taking measures such as "compensating agriculture by industry" according to foreign practical experiences and relevant suggestions.

Water-saving potential evaluation of water-receiving regions in Shandong province on the East Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project of China

Taking 13 water-receiving areas on the East Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(ERSNWDP)in Shandong Province as the study area,and comparing it with Jiangsu Province on the ERSNWDP and the Middle Route of the South-to-North(MRSNWDP),the current water-saving potential of the water-receiving areas within the municipalities of Shandong was analyzed.Different water-saving scenarios were constructed and analyzed with key water-saving indexes in various industries.These indexes include the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water,total water consumption of industrial sectors with an added value of over 10000 RMB,average leakage rate of the urban public water supply pipe network and the penetration rate of water-saving appliances.Based on the scenarios,comprehensive water-saving potential of the 13 water-receiving area cities was calculated.The results show that the water-saving potential of the study area is at a relative high level.However,some cities still have a certain amount of water-saving potential for agriculture and industry to be elevated.Under the recommended water-saving scenario,the water-saving potential is 1.134 billion m3,accounting for 5.33%of the current total water consumption,of which 460 million m3 is in agriculture,600 million m3 in industry,is and 74.20 million m3 in urban domestic sector.Comprehensive water-saving measures for the study area were proposed from the aspects of agricultural,industrial and domestic water uses.Agricultural and industrial water saving are more significant.The major cities for agricultural water saving include Jining City,Heze City,Weifang City and Jinan City;the focus cities of industrial water saving mainly include Weihai City,Jining City and Qingdao City and etc.;the key water-saving areas for urban use mainly include Zaozhuang City,Jining City and Heze City.

On conservation and development of architecture and environment in the construction of large-scale national infrastructure——Exemplified by the Jiangsu Section of the Eastern Route South-to-North Water Diversion Project

The water-diverting route project’s characteristics,natural landscapes,and histories and humanism of the Jiangsu Section of the Eastern Route South-to-North Water Diversion Project were systemically analyzed through proposing and studying the canal culture routes,the water resources heritage corridors,the landscape and recreation corridors,and the town economic corridors.The station areas along the water-diverting route were scientifically zoned and graded through quantitative and qualitative synthetic methods.Both planning compendiums and construction controlling methods were proposed based on the project grades of points,lines,and areas.Conservation and development of architecture and environment in the large-scale national infrastructure construction were explored systemically.Theories and methods of developing harmonious water-supplying functions,ecological functions,landscape effects,and cultural effects of large-scale water resources were examined.

Application of SEDEA to evaluation of degree of harmony between water resources and economic development

This paper introduces the method of data envelopment analysis （DEA） for evaluation of the degree of harmony between water resources and economic development of the water conservancy area of China＇s South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）. For this evaluation, a super-efficiency DEA （SEDEA） model was developed based on the super-efficiency method. To verify the applicability of the SEDEA model, both the SEDEA model and a normal-efficiency DEA （NEDEA） model were used to evaluate the degree of harmony between water resources and economic development of typical cities in the SNWDP water conservancy area. The results show that the SEDEA model ranks the degree of harmony of typical cities more efficiently than the NEDEA model, and thus can better evaluate the degree of harmony between water resources and economic development of different cities than the NEDEA model. Furthermore, the SEDEA model can be applied as an operational research tool in regional water resources management.

内蒙古河套灌区节水工程改造效果分析与评估

以内蒙古河套灌区1982—2012年长系列农业净引水量和年降水量资料为基础,运用均值分析、方差分析、相关分析、时间序列分析和生存分析等数理统计学方法,并结合内蒙古河套灌区农业种植发展进程,分析了河套灌区多年农业净引水量变化趋势与影响因素,得出年降水量（超过211.76 mm时,即丰水年）和节水工程改造分别独立地与农业净引水量呈明显负相关关系的结论。运用时间序列法预测了2013、2014和2015年河套灌区的农业净引水量分别为44.5、44.18和43.86亿m3;同时运用生存分析法预测了在灌区现有节水改造规模条件下,河套灌区农业净引水量区间为35～55亿m3,平均为45亿m3。

南水北调中线水源区水土保持生态建设探析

目的探讨中线水源区水土保持生态建设。方法采用文献分析和野外调研相结合的方法,并以实例进行论证。结果水源区内土壤侵蚀严重,其中坡耕地侵蚀模数高达6 000 t/a.km2,荒山、草坡等用地为1 000~3 000 t/a.km2。结论在水源区应形成以生态修复为主,结合工程措施的综合治理模式,可有效地减轻非点源污染。

引黄灌区有关问题与实现水沙配置的效益分析

随着黄河下游地区经济社会的发展,大型引黄灌区水沙配置面临着经济、社会和环境3个方面的问题亟待解决。本文在总结引黄灌区几十年水沙分配措施经验的基础上,提出大型灌区水沙配置工程主要有渠首集中沉沙、远输集中沉沙和泥沙分散3种类型、6种形式。初步论述了水沙配置方案目标比较模型和技术可行性论证模型研究手段。提出水沙配置关键技术,主要为泥沙长距离输送技术、沉沙池动态调控技术和减少清淤和清淤占地技术。对灌区水沙合理配置若干环节的经济、环境和生态效益进行了初步分析。

南水北调水源区陕西段水土保持生态建设分区

目的以科学指导南水北调中线工程水源区各分区水土保持生态建设,为南水北调中线工程提供优质可靠的水源保证。方法以各县土壤侵蚀量、人口密度、降雨量和该县内汉、丹江流域面积作为分区指标,运用模糊聚类分析方法进行分区。结果31个县可分为3个区,每个分区的特点和指标各有差异,即Ⅰ区流域面积较大,人口密集,水土流失现象较严重,Ⅱ,Ⅲ区水土流失现象较轻。结论针对各分区特点提出不同水土保持治理建议,即Ⅰ区应以加大水土保持治理为主Ⅱ,Ⅲ区以预防保护为主等。

胶东调水工程从麻湾灌区引取黄河水的可行性分析

随着经济社会不断发展和城市化进程不断推进,胶东半岛地区水资源供需矛盾逐年加剧,胶东调水工程作为承载胶东地区水资源保障的大型跨流域跨区域远距离调水工程,近年调水规模、运行时间屡创新高,但受渠首引水条件限制,调水能力未能最大限度地发挥,无法满足胶东地区日益增长的水资源需求。通过深入分析麻湾灌区的水资源状况、引水的可靠性、引水线路的可行性以及含沙量的影响,充分论证了麻湾灌区作为胶东调水工程常规备用引水点的可行性,并就实现这一目标提出了相应的意见和建议。

引黄供水工程节水改造对夏津县的影响

介绍了夏津县水资源概况和引黄现状,提出了夏津县引黄供水工程节水改造规划内容,探讨了引黄供水工程节水改造对夏津县的影响,以期促进夏津县经济社会持续健康发展和生态环境建设。

Sensitivity analysis for the total nitrogen pollution of the Danjiangkou Reservoir based on a 3-D water quality model

Inter-basin water deal of nitrogen are great transfers containing a great threats to human health, biodiversity, and air and water quality in the recipient area. Danjiangkou Reservoir, the source reservoir for China＇s South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project, suffers from total nitrogen pollution and threatens the water transfer to a number of metropolises including the capital, Beijing. To locate the main source of nitrogen pollution into the reservoir, especially near the Taocha canal head, where the intake of water transfer begins, we constructed a 3-D water quality model. We then used an inflow sensitivity analysis method to analyze the sig- nificance of inflows from each tributary that may contribute to the total nitrogen pollution and affect water quality. The results indicated that the Han River was the most significant river with a sensitivity index of 0.340, followed by the Dan River with a sensitivity index of 0.089, while the Guanshan River and the Lang River were not significant, with the sensitivity indices of 0.002 and 0.001, respectively. This result implies that the concentration and amount of nitrogen inflow outweighs the geographical position of the tributary for sources of total nitrogen pollution to the Taocha canal head of the Danjiangkou Reservoir.

某引水枢纽工程经济评价及方法

某引水枢纽工程主要任务是为灌区提供可靠的引水保证,并改善灌区的引水条件,以满足灌区灌溉用水的需要,确保规划水平年灌区的发展目标得以实现。通过对该工程进行经济评价、财务评价来论证工程在财务和国民经济上是合理可行的。

用引洮水资源补偿定西城区水系生态水量计算分析

在分析甘肃定西城区水系现状和引洮水资源利用现状的基础上,提出利用引洮水资源对定西城区生态水量进行补偿的建议,计算了定西城区河流生态需水量、人工湖泊生态需水量和水库生态需水量,得出结余的引洮水资源能够满足定西城区水系生态需水量要求的结论。