Future changes in precipitation and water availability over the Tibetan Plateau projected by CMIP6 models constrained by climate sensitivity

Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the TP.The best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,respectively.The corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),respectively.The increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained projections.Spatially,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–E.The wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃ under all three scenarios during 2050–2099.This study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.

The GNSS PWV retrieval using non-observation meteorological parameters based on ERA5 and its relation with precipitation

The pressure and temperature significantly influence precipitable water vapor(PWV) retrieval. Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS) PWV retrieval is limited because the GNSS stations lack meteorological sensors. First, this article evaluated the accuracy of pressure and temperature in 68 radiosonde stations in China based on ERA5 Reanalysis data from 2015 to 2019 and compared them with GPT3model. Then, the accuracy of pressure and temperature calculated by ERA5 were estimated in 5 representative IGS stations in China. And the PWV calculated by these meteorological parameters from ERA5(ERA5-PWV) were analyzed. Finally, the relation between ERA5-PWV and precipitation was deeply explored using wavelet coherence analysis in IGS stations. These results indicate that the accuracy of pressure and temperature of ERA5 is better than the GPT3 model. In radiosonde stations, the mean BIAS and MAE of pressure and temperature in ERA5 are-0.41/1.15 hpa and-0.97/2.12 K. And the mean RMSEs are 1.35 hpa and 2.87 K, which improve 74.77% and 40.58% compared with GPT3 model. The errors of pressure and temperature of ERA5 are smaller than the GPT3 model in bjfs, hksl and wuh2, and the accuracy of ERA5-PWV is improved by 18.77% compared with the GPT3 model. In addition, there is a significant positive correlation between ERA5-PWV and precipitation. And precipitation is always associated with the sharp rise of ERA5-PWV, which provides important references for rainfall prediction.

The Influence of Airflow Transport Pathways on Precipitation during the Rainy Season in the Liupan Mountains of Northwest China

This study investigates the influence of airflow transport pathways on seasonal rainfall in the mountainous region of the Liupan Mountains(LM) during the rainy seasons from 2020 to 2022, utilizing observational data from seven ground gradient stations located on the eastern slopes, western slopes, and mountaintops combined with backward trajectory cluster analysis. The results indicate 1) that the LM's rainy season, characterized by overcast and rainy days, is mainly influenced by cold and moist airflows(CMAs) from the westerly direction and warm and moist airflows(WMAs) from a slightly southern direction. The precipitation amounts under four airflow transport paths are ranked from largest to smallest as follows: WMAs, CMAs, warm dry airflows(WDAs), and cold dry airflows(CDAs). 2) WMAs contribute significantly more to the intensity of regional precipitation than the other three types of airflows. During localized precipitation events,warm airflows have higher precipitation intensities at night than cold airflows, while the opposite is true during the afternoon. 3) During regional precipitation events, water vapor content is the primary influencing factor. Precipitation characteristics under humid airflows are mainly affected by high water vapor content, whereas during dry airflow precipitation, dynamic and thermodynamic factors have a more pronounced impact. 4) During localized precipitation events, the influence of dynamic and thermodynamic factors is more complex than during regional precipitation, with the precipitation characteristics of the four airflows closely related to their water vapor content, air temperature and humidity attributes, and orographic lifting. 5) Compared to regional precipitation, the influence of topography is more prominent in localized precipitation processes.

A New Merged Product Reveals Precipitation Features over Drylands in China

Due to the considerable uncertainties inherent in the datasets describing the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation in the drylands of China,this study presents a new merged monthly precipitation product with a spatial resolution of approximately 0.2°×0.2°during 1980–2019.The newly developed precipitation product was validated at different temporal scales(e.g.,monthly,seasonally,and annually).The results show that the new product consistently aligns with the spatiotemporal distributions reported by the Chinese Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System(CLDAS)product and Multi-Source Weighted Ensemble Precipitation(MSWEP).The merged product exhibits exceptional quality in describing the drylands of China,with a bias of–2.19 mm month^(–1)relative to MSWEP.In addition,the annual trend of the merged product(0.09 mm month^(–1)yr^(−1))also closely aligns with that of the MSWEP(0.11 mm month^(–1)yr^(−1))during 1980–2019.The increasing trend indicates that the water cycle and wetting process intensified in the drylands of China during this period.In particular,there was an increase in wetting during the period from 2001–2019.Generally,the merged product exhibits potential value for improving our understanding of the climate and water cycle in the drylands of China.

Variation characteristics of stable isotopes in atmospheric precipitation in Adelaide,Australia

Background,aim,and scope Stable isotope in water could respond sensitively to the variation of environment and be reserved in different geological archives,although they are scarce in the environment.And the methods derived from the stable isotope composition of water have been widely applied in researches on hydrometeorology,weather diagnosis,and paleoclimate reconstruction,which help well for understanding the water-cycle processes in one region.Here,it is aimed to explore the temporal changes of stable isotopes in precipitation from Adelaide,Australia and determine the influencing factors at different timescales.Materials and methods Based on the isotopic data of daily precipitation over four years collected in Adelaide,Australia,the variation characteristics of dailyδD,δ^(18)O,and dexcess in precipitation and its relationship with meteorological elements were analyzed.Results The results demonstrated the local meteoric water line(LMWL)in Adelaide,wasδD=6.38×δ^(18)O+6.68,with a gradient less than 8.There is a significant negative correlation between dailyδ^(18)O and precipitation amount or relative humidity at daily timescales in both the whole year and wither/summerhalf year(p<0.001),but a significant positive correlation between dailyδ^(18)O and temperature in the whole year and the winter half-year(p<0.001).Discussion The correlation coefficients betweenδ^(18)O and daily mean temperature didn’t show a significant positive correlation,which may be attributed to that the precipitation in Adelaide area in January was mainly influenced by strong convective weather,and the stable isotope values in precipitation were significantly negative.Furthermore,this propose was also evidenced by the results from dexcess of precipitation with larger value in the winter half-year than that in the summer half-year,which may be resulted from the precipitation events in winter are mostly influenced by oceanic water vapor,while the sources of water vapor in summer precipitation events are more complicated and influenced by strong convective weather.On the other hand,the slope and intercept of theδ^(18)O—P regression lines in the summer months(-0.41 and 0.50‰)are larger and smaller than those in the winter months(-0.22 and-2.15‰),respectively,indicating that the precipitation stable isotopes have a relatively stronger rainout effect in the summer months than in the winter months.Besides,the measured values ofδ^(18)O in daily precipitation have a good linear relationship with our simulated values ofδ^(18)O,demonstrating the established regression model could provide a reliable simulation for theδ^(18)O values in daily precipitation in Adelaide area.It’s worth noting that the precipitation events with low precipitation amount,low relative humidity and high temperature,usually had relatively small slope and intercept of MWL,implying that raindrops may be strongly affected by sub-cloud secondary evaporation in the falling process.Conclusions The variation ofδ^(18)O in daily precipitation from Adelaide region was controlled by different factors at different timescales.And the water vapor sources and the meteorological conditions of precipitation events(such as the degree of sub-cloud secondary evaporation)also played an important role on the variation ofδ^(18)O.Recommendations and perspectives Stable isotope in daily precipitation can provide more accurate information about water-cycle and atmosphere circulation,it is therefore necessary to continue to collect and analyze daily-scale precipitation data over a longer time span.The results of this study will provide the basis for the fields of hydrometeorology,meteorological diagnosis and paleoclimate reconstruction in Adelaide,Australia.

Antecedent Precipitation Index to Estimate Soil Moisture and Correlate as a Triggering Process in the Occurrence of Landslides

Landslides are highly dangerous phenomena that occur in different parts of the world and pose significant threats to human populations. Intense rainfall events are the main triggering process for landslides in urbanized slope regions, especially those considered high-risk areas. Various other factors contribute to the process;thus, it is essential to analyze the causes of such incidents in all possible ways. Soil moisture plays a critical role in the Earth’s surface-atmosphere interaction systems;hence, measurements and their estimations are crucial for understanding all processes involved in the water balance, especially those related to landslides. Soil moisture can be estimated from in-situ measurements using different sensors and techniques, satellite remote sensing, hydrological modeling, and indicators to index moisture conditions. Antecedent soil moisture can significantly impact runoff for the same rainfall event in a watershed. The Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) or “retained rainfall,” along with the antecedent moisture condition from the Natural Resources Conservation Service, is generally applied to estimate runoff in watersheds where data is limited or unavailable. This work aims to explore API in estimating soil moisture and establish thresholds based on landslide occurrences. The estimated soil moisture will be compared and calibrated using measurements obtained through multisensor capacitance probes installed in a high-risk area located in the mountainous region of Campos do Jordão municipality, São Paulo, Brazil. The API used in the calculation has been modified, where the recession coefficient depends on air temperature variability as well as the climatological mean temperature, which can be considered as losses in the water balance due to evapotranspiration. Once the API is calibrated, it will be used to extrapolate to the entire watershed and consequently estimate soil moisture. By utilizing recorded mass movements and comparing them with API and soil moisture, it will be possible to determine thresholds, thus enabling anticipation of landslide occurrences.

Analysis of Heavy Precipitation Event in Northeast China from August 1 to 5, 2023

This study delves into the multiple weather systems and their interaction mechanisms that caused the severe rainfall event in Northeast China in early August 2023. The analysis reveals that the atmospheric circulation in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Eurasian continent exhibited a significant “two troughs and two ridges” structure, with Northeast China located precisely in the peripheral region of the subtropical high, significantly influenced by its marginal airflows. Additionally, the residual circulation of Typhoon “Doksuri” interacting with the subtropical high and upper-level troughs significantly increased the rainfall intensity and duration in the region. In particular, the continuous and powerful transport of the southwest jet provided the necessary moisture and unstable conditions for the generation and development of convective systems. The rainfall event resulted in nearly 40,000 people affected and crop damage covering an area of approximately 4000 hectares, demonstrating the severity of extreme weather. The study emphasizes that strengthening meteorological monitoring and early warning systems, as well as formulating and improving emergency response mechanisms, are crucial for reducing potential disaster losses caused by heavy rainfall. Future research can further explore the interaction mechanisms among weather systems, limitations of data sources, and the connection between long-term trends of heavy rainfall events and global climate change.

Study on the Water Balance in Three Dominant Plants with Simulated Precipitation Change in Maowusu Sandland

The distribution pattern and productivity of Maowusu sandland terrestrial ecosystem are greatly affected with the future severe global change, especially global precipitation change. Considering the predicative global precipitation change and the appropriate relevant strategy for the sustainable development of the China dry territory, the authors have investigated the response of water balance to global precipitation change by creating an artificial control of four levels of water supply treating 3 dominant plants in Mauwusu sandland. The results showed that the seasonal changes of water storage and moisture of different sandland layer depths were affected by different water supply treatments and different plants. The water storage of the three plant growing sandlands and the moisture of different sandland layer depths increased as water supply was increased. The moisture of different water supply treatments and plants increased with the increase of sandland layer depth. The water storage and moisture of the same layer depth of Hedysarum mongolicum Turcz. growing sandland were larger than that of Salix psammophila C. Wang et Ch. Y. Yang growing sandland, which were in turn higher than that of Artemisia ordosica Krasch. growing sandland in the same water supply treatment. Water supply significantly affected the seasonal changes of evaporation and transpiration of the three plant growing sandlands. With the increased levels of water supply, viz. 157.5 mm, 315.0 mm, 472.5 mm and 630.0 mm, the total evaporation was 123.66 mm, 258.68 mm, 376.30 mm, 458.57 mm, respectively, and the total transpiration of A. ordosica was 50.80 mm, 68.93 mm, 108.39 mm, 163.36 mm, respectively, and that of S. psammophila , 47.37 mm, 68.17 mm, 93.65 mm, 135.97 mm, respectively, and that of H. mongolicum 46.73 mm, 67.37 mm, 86.07 mm, 109.64 mm, respectively. Evaporation was significantly higher than transpiration in the experiment.

Analysis on the Contribution of Artificial Precipitation Enhancement Amount to Annual Water Resources in Liaoning

Based on the water resource balance,the correlation between both the Liaoning water resource and precipitation and total amount of water resource from 1991 to 2004 was analyzed by assuming Liaoning to be an enclosed region.And the calculation methods were developed to quantitatively determine the increase of rainfall due to artificial precipitation,and consequently ascertain the contribution of artificial rainfall amount to water resources.

Evaluation of surface temperature and pressure derived from MERRA-2 and ERA5 reanalysis datasets and their applications in hourly GNSS precipitable water vapor retrieval over China

Temperature and pressure play key roles in Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS) precipitable water vapor(PWV) retrieval. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) have released their latest reanalysis product: the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2(MERRA-2) and the fifthgeneration ECMWF reanalysis(ERA5), respectively. Based on the reanalysis data, we evaluate and analyze the accuracy of the surface temperature and pressure products in China using the the measured temperature and pressure data from 609 ground meteorological stations in 2017 as reference values.Then the accuracy of the two datasets and their performances in estimating GNSS PWV are analyzed. The PWV derived from the pressure and temperature products of ERA5 and MERRA-2 has high accuracy. The annual average biases of pressure and temperature for ERA5 are-0.07 hPa and 0.45 K, with the root mean square error(RMSE) of 0.95 hPa and 2.04 K, respectively. The annual average biases of pressure and temperature for MERRA-2 are-0.01 hPa and 0.38 K, with the RMSE of 1.08 h Pa and 2.66 K, respectively.The accuracy of ERA5 is slightly higher than that of MERRA-2. The two reanalysis data show negative biases in most regions of China, with the highest to lowest accuracy in the following order: the south,north, northwest, and Tibet Plateau. Comparing the GNSS PWV calculated using MERRA-2(GNSS MERRA-2 PWV) and ERA5(GNSS ERA5 PWV) with the radiosonde-derived PWV from 48 co-located GNSS stations and the measured PWV of the co-location radiosonde stations, it is found that the accuracy of GNSS ERA5 PWV is better than that of GNSS MERRA-2 PWV. These results show the different applicability of surface temperature and pressure products from MERRA-2 and ERA5 data, indicating that both have important applications in meteorological research and GNSS water vapor monitoring in China.

Decadal trends in precipitable water vapor over the Indus River Basin using ERA5 reanalysis data

Precipitable Water Vapor(PWV)constitutes a pivotal parameter within the domains of atmospheric science,and remote sensing due to its profound influence on Earth’s climate dynamics and weather patterns.It exerts a significant impact on atmospheric stability absorption and emission of radiation,thus engendering alterations in the Earth’s radiative equilibrium.As such,precise quantification of PWV holds the potential to enhance weather prognostication and fortify preparedness against severe meteorological phenomena.This study aimed to elucidate the spatial and temporal changes in seasonal and annual PWV across the Indus River Basin and its sub-basins using ERA5 reanalysis datasets.The present study used ERA5 PWV(entire atmospheric column),air temperature at 2 m(t2m)and 500 hPa(T_500hPa),evapotranspiration,and total cloud cover data from 1960 to 2021.Theil Sen slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test were used for trend analysis.Correlation and multiple regression methods were used to understand the association of PWV with other factors.The findings have unveiled the highest increase in mean PWV during the monsoon(0.40 mm/decade),followed by premonsoon(0.37 mm/decade),post-monsoon(0.27 mm/decade),and winter(0.19 mm/decade)throughout the study period.Additionally,the mean PWV exhibited the most pronounced positive trend in the sub-basin Lower Indus(LI),followed by Panjnad(P),Kabul(K),and Upper Indus(UI)across all seasons,except winter.Annual PWV has also risen in the Indus basin and its sub-basins over the last six decades.PWV exhibits a consistent upward trend up to an elevation of 3500 m within the basin which is most pronounced during the monsoon season,followed by the pre-monsoon.The escalating PWV within the basin is reasonably ascribed to increasing air temperatures,augmented evapotranspiration,and heightened cloud cover.These findings hold potential utility for pertinent authorities engaged in water resource management and planning.

Response of soil water dynamics to precipitation years under different vegetation types on the northern Loess Plateau, China

Implementation of the Grain-for-Green project has led to rapid land cover changes and resulted in a significantly increased vegetation cover on the Loess Plateau of China during the past few decades. The main objective of this study was to examine the responses of soil water dynamics under four typical vegetation types against precipitation years. Soil water contents (SWCs) were measured in 0–4.0 m profiles on a hillslope under the four vegetation types of shrub, pasture, natural fallow and crop in a re-vegetated catchment area from April to October in normal (2010), dry (2011), wet (2014) and extremely wet (2013) years. The results indicated that precipitation and vegetation types jointly controlled the soil water temporal dynamics and profile characteristics in the study region. SWCs in 0–4.0 m profiles of the four vegetation types were ranked from high to low as crop>fallow>pasture>shrub and this pattern displayed a temporal stability over the four years. In the extremely wet year, SWC changes occurred in the 0–2.0 m layer under shrub and pasture while the changes further extended to the depth of 4.0-m deep layers under fallow and crop. In the other three years, SWCs changes mainly occurred in the 0–1.0 m layer and kept relatively stable in the layers deeper than 1.0 m for all the four vegetation types. The interannual variation in soil depth of SWCs was about 0–2.0 m for shrub and pasture, about 0–3.4 m for fallow and about 0–4.0 m for crop, respectively. The dried soil layers formed at the depths of 1.0, 0.6, 1.6 and 0.7 m under shrub, and 1.0, 1.0, 2.0 and 0.9 m under pasture, respectively in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014. The infiltrated rainwater mostly stayed in the 0–1.0 m layer and hardly supplied to soil depth >1.0 m in normal, dry and wet years. Even in the extremely wet year of 2013, rainwater recharge depth did not exceed 2.0 m under shrub and pasture. This implied that soil desiccation was difficult to remove in normal, dry and wet years, and soil desiccation could be removed in 1.0–2.0 m soil layers even in the extremely wet year under shrub and pasture. The results indicated that the natural fallow was the best vegetation type for achieving sustainable utilization of soil water and preventing soil desiccation.

Precipitation isotopes in the Tianshan Mountains as a key to water cycle in arid central Asia

The Tianshan Mountains is a wet island in arid central Asia, and precipitation amount across the mountains is much larger than that in the surrounding low-lying areas. To investigate the regional water cycle in arid central Asia, stable isotope composition in precipitation has received increased attention during the past decades. This paper reviewed current knowledge of observed and simulated stable isotope ratios in precipitation across the Tianshan Mountains. The temperature effect of stable isotopes in precipitation has been widely accepted in arid central Asia and can be applied to paleoclimate reconstruction using ice cores. The seasonality of precipitation isotopically enriched in summer months and depleted in winter months is usually attributed to westerly-dominated moisture, but different trajectory paths to the northern and southern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains can still be modelled. The proportional contribution and its uncertainty of surface evaporation and transpiration to local precipitation can be estimated using the isotope approach, and transpiration plays a dominant role in recycled moisture for oasis sites. The impact of below-cloud evaporation on precipitation stable isotopes on the southern slope is usually larger than that on the northern slope.

Analysis of the Relationship between the Cloud Water Path and Precipitation Intensity of Mature Typhoons in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

The relationship between precipitation intensity and cloud water in typhoon systems remains unclear.This study combined time-and space-synchronized precipitation and spectral data obtained by the Precipitation Radar(PR)as well as the Visible and Infrared Scanner(VIRS)onboard the TRMM satellite,to overcome the limitations of precipitation properties and cloud parameters not being synchronized in previous studies.A merged dataset of near-surface rain rate(RR)and corresponding cloud water path(CWP)was established and used to analyze the potential correlation between cloud microphysical properties and precipitation,to deepen our understanding of the evolution of cloud to rain.In addition,25 collocated satellite overpasses of mature typhoon cases in the Northwest Pacific Ocean from 1998 to 2012 were obtained,and the relationships between the CWP and RR of 144515 pixels were analyzed in detail.The results show that the CWP and RR of mature typhoon systems with different precipitation types,precipitation cloud phases,and vertical depths of precipitation can be fitted by a notable sigmoid function,which may be useful for estimating CWP and parameterizing precipitation in models.Furthermore,the relationship was applied and tested with an independent sample to show that RR is a significant indicator of CWP.

Assessment of Soil Water Content in Field with Antecedent Precipitation Index and Groundwater Depth in the Yangtze River Estuary

To better understand soil moisture dynamics in the Yangtze River Estuary （YRE） and predict its variation in a simple way, a field monitoring experiment was carried out along the north branch of the Yangtze River, where seawater intrusion was strong and salt-water variation is one of the limiting factors of local agriculture. In present paper, relation between antecedent precipitation index （API） and soil water content is studied, and effects of groundwater depth on soil water content was analyzed. A relatively accurate prediction result of soil water content was reached using a neural network model. The impact analysis result showed that the variation of the API was consistent with soil water content and it displayed significant correlations with soil water content in both 20 and 50 cm soil layer, and higher correlation was observed in the layer of 20 cm. Groundwater impact analysis suggested that soil moisture was affected by the depth of groundwater, and was affected more greatly by groundwater at depth of 50 cm than that at 20 cm layer. By introducing API, groundwater depth and temperature together, a BP artificial network model was established to predict soil water content and an acceptable agreement was achieved. The model can be used for supplementing monitoring data of soil water content and predicting soil water content in shallow groundwater areas, and can provide favorable support for the research of water and salt transport in estuary area.

Isotopic composition of precipitation over Arid Northwestern China and its implications for the water vapor origin

In order to reveal the characteristics and climatic controls on the stable isotopic composition of precipitation over Arid Northwestern China, eight stations have been selected from Chinese Network of Isotopes in Precipitation(CHNIP).During the year 2005 and 2006, monthly precipitation samples have been collected and analyzed for the composition of δD and δ18O.The established local meteoric water line δD=7.42δ18O+1.38, based on the 95 obtained monthly composite samples, could be treated as isotopic input function across the region.The deviations of slope and intercept from the Global Meteoric Water Line indicated the specific regional meteorological conditions.The monthly δ18O values were characterized by a positive correlation with surface air temperature(δ18O(‰) =0.33 T(℃)-13.12).The amount effect visualized during summer period(δ18O(‰) =-0.04P(mm)-3.44) though not appeared at a whole yearly-scale.Spatial distributions of δ18O have properly portrayed the atmospheric circulation background in each month over Arid Northwestern China.The quan-titative simulation of δ18O, which involved a Rayleigh fractionation and a kinetic fractionation, demonstrated that the latter one was the dominating function of condensation of raindrops.Furthermore, the raindrop suffered a re-evaporation during falling processes, and the precipitation vapor might have been mixed with a quantity of local recycled water vapor.Multiple linear regression equations and a δ18O-T relation have been gained by using meteorological parameters and δ18O data to evaluate physical controls on the long-term data.The established δ18O-T relation, which has been based on the present-day precipitation, could be considered as a first step of quantitatively reconstructing the historical environmental climate.

Seasonal dynamics of soil water content in the typical vegetation and its response to precipitation in a semi-arid area of Chinese Loess Plateau

Soil water content is a key limiting factor for vegetation growth in the semi-arid area of Chinese Loess Plateau and precipitation is the main source of soil water content in this area.To further understand the impact of vegetation types and environmental factors such as precipitation on soil water content,we continuously monitored the seasonal dynamics in soil water content in four plots(natural grassland,Caragana korshinskii,Armeniaca sibirica and Pinus tabulaeformis)in Chinese Loess Plateau.The results show that the amplitude of soil water content fluctuation decreases with an increase in soil depth,showing obvious seasonal variations.Soil water content of artificial vegetation was found to be significantly lower than that of natural grassland,and most precipitation events have difficulty replenishing soil water content below a depth of 40 cm.Spring and autumn are the key seasons for replenishment of soil water by precipitation.Changes in soil water content are affected by precipitation,vegetation types,soil evaporation and other factors.The interception effect of vegetation on precipitation and the demand for water consumption by transpiration are the key factors affecting the efficiency of soil water replenishment by precipitation in this area.Due to artificial vegetation plantation in this area,soil will face a water deficit crisis in the future.

Improvement of humidity resistance of water soluble core by precipitation method

Water soluble core has been widely used in manufacturing complex metal components with hollow configurations or internal channels;however,the soluble core can absorb water easily from the air at room temperature.To improve the humidity resistance of the water soluble core and optimize the process parameters applied in manufacturing of the water soluble core,a precipitation method and a two-level-three-full factorial central composite design were used,respectively.The properties of the cores treated by the precipitation method were compared with that without any treatment.Through a systematical study by means of both an environmental scanning electron microscope(ESEM) and an energy dispersive X-ray(EDX) analyzer,the results indicate that the hygroscopicity can be reduced by 20% and the obtained optimal process conditions for three critical control factors affecting the hygroscopicity are 0.2 g·mL-1 calcium chloride concentration,4% water concentration and 0 min ignition time.The porous surface coated by calcium chloride and the high humidity resistance products generated in the precipitation reaction between calcium chloride and potassium carbonate may contribute to the lower hygroscopicity.

Variational Assimilation of GPS Precipitable Water Vapor and Hourly Rainfall Observations for a Meso-βScale Heavy Precipitation Event During the 2002 Mei-Yu Season

Recent advances in Global Positioning System （GPS） remote sensing technology allow for a direct estimation of the precipitable water vapor （PWV） from delayed signals transmitted by GPS satellites, which can be assimilated into numerical models with four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation. A mesoscale model and its 4DVAR system are used to access the impacts of assimilating GPS-PWV and hourly rainfall observations on the short-range prediction of a heavy rainfall event on 20 June 2002. The heavy precipitation was induced by a sequence of meso-β-scale convective systems （MCS） along the mei-yu front in China. The experiments with GPS-PWV assimilation cluster and also eliminated the erroneous rainfall successfully simulated the evolution of the observed MCS systems found in the experiment without 4DVAR assimilation. Experiments with hourly rainfall assimilation performed similarly both on the prediction of MCS initiation and the elimination of erroneous systems, however the MCS dissipated much sooner than it did in observations. It is found that the assimilation-induced moisture perturbation and mesoscale low-level jet are helpful for the MCS generation and development. It is also discovered that spurious gravity waves may post serious limitations for the current 4DVAR algorithm, which would degrade the assimilation efficiency, especially for rainfall data. Sensitivity experiments with different observations, assimilation windows and observation weightings suggest that assimilating GPS-PWV can be quite effective, even with the assimilation window as short as 1 h. On the other hand, assimilating rainfall observations requires extreme cautions on the selection of observation weightings and the control of spurious gravity waves.

Rising trends of global precipitable water vapor and its correlation with flood frequency

Using 4 global reanalysis data sets, significant upward trends of precipitable water vapor(PWV) were found in the 3 time periods of 1958-2020, 1979-2020, and 2000-2020. During 1958-2020, the global PWV trends obtained using the ERA5 and JRA55 data sets are 0.19 ± 0.01 mm per decade(1.15 ± 0.31%)and 0.23 ± 0.01 mm per decade(1.45 ± 0.32%), respectively. The PWV trends obtained using the ERA5,JRA55, NCEP-NCAR, and NCEP-DOE data sets are 0.22 ± 0.01 mm per decade(1.18 ± 0.54%),0.21 ± 0.00 mm per decade(1.76 ± 0.56%), 0.27 ± 0.01 mm per decade(2.20 ± 0.70%) and 0.28 ± 0.01 mm per decade(2.19 ± 0.70%) for the period 1979-2020. During 2000-2020, the PWV trends obtained using ERA5, JRA55, NCEP-DOE, and NCEP-NCAR data sets are 0.40 ± 0.25 mm per decade(2.66 ± 1.51%),0.37 ± 0.24 mm per decade(2.19 ± 1.54%), 0.40 ± 0.26 mm per decade(1.96 ± 1.53%) and 0.36 ± 0.25 mm per decade(2.47 ± 1.72%), respectively. Rising PWV has a positive impact on changes in precipitation,increasing the probability of extreme precipitation and then changing the frequency of flood disasters.Therefore, exploring the relationship between PWV(derived from ERA5 and JRA55) change and flood disaster frequency from 1958 to 2020 revealed a significant positive correlation between them, with correlation coefficients of 0.68 and 0.79, respectively, which explains the effect of climate change on the increase in flood disaster frequency to a certain extent. The study can provide a reference for assessing the evolution of flood disasters and predicting their frequency trends.