An approach to analyze the seismic reliability of water distribution networks by combining a hydraulic analysis with a first-order reliability method (FORM), is proposed in this paper. The hydraulic analysis method ...An approach to analyze the seismic reliability of water distribution networks by combining a hydraulic analysis with a first-order reliability method (FORM), is proposed in this paper. The hydraulic analysis method for normal conditions is modified to accommodate the special conditions necessary to perform a seismic hydraulic analysis. In order to calculate the leakage area and leaking flow of the pipelines in the hydraulic analysis method, a new leakage model established from the seismic response analysis of buried pipelines is presented. To validate the proposed approach, a network with 17 nodes and 24 pipelines is investigated in detail. The approach is also applied to an actual project consisting of 463 nodes and 767 pipelines. The results show that the proposed approach achieves satisfactory results in analyzing the seismic reliability of large-scale water distribution networks.展开更多
In order to evaluate the seismic reliability of water distribution system and make rehabilitation decisions correspondingly, it is necessary to assess pipelines damage states and conduct functional analysis based on p...In order to evaluate the seismic reliability of water distribution system and make rehabilitation decisions correspondingly, it is necessary to assess pipelines damage states and conduct functional analysis based on pipe leakage model. When an earthquake occurred, the water distribution system kept serving with leakage. By adding a virtual node at the centre of the pipeline with leakage, an efficient approach to pressure-driven analysis was developed for simulating a variety of low relative scenarios, and a hydraulic leakage model was also built to perform hydraulic analysis of the water supply network with seismic damage. Then the mean-first-order-second-moment method was used to analyse the seismic serviceability of the water distribution system. According to the assessment analysis, pipes that were destroyed or in heavy leakage were isolated and repaired emergently, which improved the water supply capability of the network and would constitute the basis for enhancing seismic reliability of the system. The proposed approach to seismic reliability and rehabilitation decision analysis on water distribution system is demonstrated effective through a case study.展开更多
Water leaving the treatment works is usually of a high quality but its properties change during the transportation stage. Increasing awareness of the quality of the service provided within the water industry today and...Water leaving the treatment works is usually of a high quality but its properties change during the transportation stage. Increasing awareness of the quality of the service provided within the water industry today and assessing the reliability of the water quality in a distribution system has become a major significance for decision on system operation based on water quality in distribution networks. Using together a water age model, a chlorine decay model and a model of acceptable maximum water age can assess the reliability of the water quality in a distribution system. First, the nodal water age values in a certain complex distribution system can be calculated by the water age model. Then, the acceptable maximum water age value in the distribution system is obtained based on the chlorine decay model. The nodes at which the water age values are below the maximum value are regarded as reliable nodes. Finally, the reliability index on the percentile weighted by the nodal demands reflects the reliability of the water quality in the distribution system. The approach has been applied in a real water distribution network. The contour plot based on the water age values determines a surface of the reliability of the water quality. At any time, this surface is used to locate high water age but poor reliability areas, which identify parts of the network that may be of poor water quality. As a result, the contour water age provides a valuable aid for a straight insight into the water quality in the distribution system.展开更多
This paper reviews several recently-developed techniques for the minimum-cost optimal design of water-retaining structures (WRSs), which integrate the effects of seepage. These include the incorporation of uncertainty...This paper reviews several recently-developed techniques for the minimum-cost optimal design of water-retaining structures (WRSs), which integrate the effects of seepage. These include the incorporation of uncertainty in heterogeneous soil parameter estimates and quantification of reliability. This review is limited to methods based on coupled simulation-optimization (S-O) models. In this context, the design of WRSs is mainly affected by hydraulic design variables such as seepage quantities, which are difficult to determine from closed-form solutions or approximation theories. An S-O model is built by integrating numerical seepage modeling responses to an optimization algorithm based on efficient surrogate models. The surrogate models (meta-models) are trained on simulated data obtained from finite element numerical code solutions. The proposed methodology is applied using several machine learning techniques and optimization solvers to optimize the design of WRS by incorporating different design variables and boundary conditions. Additionally, the effects of several scenarios of flow domain hydraulic conductivity are integrated into the S-O model. Also, reliability based optimum design concepts are incorporated in the S-O model to quantify uncertainty in seepage quantities due to uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity estimates. We can conclude that the S-O model can efficiently optimize WRS designs. The ANN, SVM, and GPR machine learning technique-based surrogate models are efficiently and expeditiously incorporated into the S-O models to imitate the numerical responses of simulations of various problems.展开更多
This paper builds a water supply reliability econometric model to analyze climate changes and adaptation impact factors on water supply reliability of irrigation wells by using 100 villages' three-year(2010-2012) ...This paper builds a water supply reliability econometric model to analyze climate changes and adaptation impact factors on water supply reliability of irrigation wells by using 100 villages' three-year(2010-2012) field survey data of five middle and eastern provinces of China.The results show that long-run climate change factors,adaptation measures,village-level organizations of irrigation management,as well as extreme climate factors affect the water supply reliability of irrigation wells significantly.Meanwhile,there are significant differences impacting different crops and provinces.This paper suggests that agriculture meteorological disaster monitoring and warning systems should be strengthened by increasing irrigation facilities construction and maintenance,promoting reform of agricultural irrigation water management system,and developing various forms of peasant cooperation organization in order to improve agricultural production capacity to adapt to climate change.展开更多
The paper presents occurrence of rainfall using principles of fuzzy set theory and principles of reliability analysis. Both the abstract and the rest of the paper are discussed from these two points of view. First, a ...The paper presents occurrence of rainfall using principles of fuzzy set theory and principles of reliability analysis. Both the abstract and the rest of the paper are discussed from these two points of view. First, a fuzzy inference model for predicting rainfall using scan data from the USDA Soil Climate Analysis Network Station at Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University (AAMU) campus for the year 2004 is presented. The model further reflects how an expert would perceive weather conditions and apply this knowledge before inferring a rainfall. Fuzzy variables were selected based on judging patterns in individual monthly graphs for 2003 and 2004 and the influence of different variables that caused rainfall. A decrease in temperature (TP) and an increase in wind speed (WS) when compared between the ith and (i ? 1)th day were found to have a positive relation with a rainfall (RF) occurrence in most cases. Therefore, TP and WS were used in the antecedent part of the production rules to predict rainfall (RF). Results of the model showed better performance when threshold values for 1) Relative Humidity (RH) of ith day;2) Humidity Increase (HI) between the ith and (i ? 1)th day;and 3) Product (P) of decrease in temperature (TP) and an increase in wind speed (WS) were introduced. The percentage of error was 12.35 when compared the calculated amount of rainfall with actual amount of rainfall. This is followed by prediction of rainfall using principles of reliability analysis. This is done by comparing theoretical probabilities with experimental probabilities for the occurrence of two main events, namely, Relative Humidity (RH) and Humidity Increase (HI) being in between specified threshold values. The experimental values of probability are falling in between μ ? σ and μ + σ for both RH and HI parameters, where μ is the mean value and σ is the standard deviation.展开更多
The actively heated fiber-optic(AHFO)technology has become emerged as a research focus due to its advantages of distributed,real-time measurement and good durability.These attributes have led to the gradual applicatio...The actively heated fiber-optic(AHFO)technology has become emerged as a research focus due to its advantages of distributed,real-time measurement and good durability.These attributes have led to the gradual application of AHFO technology to the water content measurement of in situ soil.However,all existing in situ applications of AHFO technology fail to consider the effect of soilesensor contact quality on water content measurements,limiting potential for the wider application of AHFO technology.To address this issue,the authors propose a method for determining the soilesensor thermal contact resistance based on the principle of an infinite cylindrical heat source.This is then used to establish an AHFO water content measurement technology that considers the thermal contact resistance.The reliability and validity of the new measurement technology are explored through a laboratory test and a field case study,and the spatial-temporal evolution of the soil water content in the case is revealed.The results demonstrate that method for determining the soilesensor thermal contact resistance is highly effective and applicable to all types of soils.This method requires only the moisture content,dry density,and thermal response of the in situ soil to be obtained.In the field case,the measurement error of soil water content between the AHFO method,which takes into account the thermal contact resistance,and the neutron scattering method is only 0.011.The water content of in situ soil exhibits a seasonal variation,with an increase in spring and autumn and a decrease in summer and winter.Furthermore,the response of shallow soils to precipitation and evaporation is significant.These findings contribute to the enhancement of the accuracy of the AHFO technology in the measurement of the water content of in situ soils,thereby facilitating the dissemination and utilization of this technology.展开更多
In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP), two basic forms (series connection state and mixed state of both series connectio...In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP), two basic forms (series connection state and mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection) of the organization management chain can be abstracted. The indispensability of each form has been studied and is described in this paper. Through analysis of the reliability of the two basic forms, reliability models of the organization management chain in the series connection state and the mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection have been set up.展开更多
In this paper, a new technique are developed for optimal design of water distribution system besed on reliability. It applies a linear programming algorithm to the optimal design based on reliability. Within a small o...In this paper, a new technique are developed for optimal design of water distribution system besed on reliability. It applies a linear programming algorithm to the optimal design based on reliability. Within a small optimal search step range,the objective function and constraints can be expressed in the first order Taylor-expanding form,and three sub-models (a steady-state simulation model, a reliability model and a linear optimization model) are linked each in optimal searches. Thus, a traditional non linear problem can be solved by a linear model, the computing burden is significantly decreased. Therefore, the linear optimal model developed by the paper has more practical significance.展开更多
It is of great significance to analyze the chemical indexes of mine water and develop a rapid identification system of water source, which can quickly and accurately distinguish the causes of water inrush and identify...It is of great significance to analyze the chemical indexes of mine water and develop a rapid identification system of water source, which can quickly and accurately distinguish the causes of water inrush and identify the source of water inrush, so as to reduce casualties and economic losses and prevent and control water inrush disasters. Taking Ca<sup>2+</sup>, Mg<sup>2+</sup>, Na<sup>+</sup> + K<sup>+</sup>, , , Cl<sup>-</sup>, pH value and TDS as discriminant indexes, the principal component analysis method was used to reduce the dimension of data, and the identification model of mine water inrush source based on PCA-BP neural network was established. 96 sets of data of different aquifers in Panxie mining area were selected for prediction analysis, and 20 sets of randomly selected data were tested, with an accuracy rate of 95%. The model can effectively reduce data redundancy, has a high recognition rate, and can accurately and quickly identify the water source of mine water inrush.展开更多
Water inrush,which is one of the challenging issues and hot topics in the tunneling industry,is very easy to occur during the construction of karst tunnels.The mechanism of water inrush of karst tunnels is discussed a...Water inrush,which is one of the challenging issues and hot topics in the tunneling industry,is very easy to occur during the construction of karst tunnels.The mechanism of water inrush of karst tunnels is discussed and analyzed in the paper:the water inrush of karst tunnels is generally divided into three steps,i.e.,the forming of the hazard source,the forming of the water inrush passage and the failure of the anti-inrush rock mass.The failure of the anti-inrush rock mass of karst tunnels are classified into 5 types,i.e.,the integral tensile-shear failure,the hydraulic fracturing,the infiltration induced sliding of the filling medium,the loss of key blocks and the comprehensive water inrush mode.The failure mechanism is studied on basis of typical cases and by means of numerical simulation or theoretical analysis.Conclusion is drawn that most of the water inrushes in actual tunneling are comprehensive water inrushes,which are the comprehensive results of the interrelation and interaction of various water inrush types,and that different types of water inrushes have related continuity and progressive evolution relationships under certain conditions.展开更多
奥灰岩溶裂隙含水层是影响华北型煤矿深部开采的重要水害,在水-岩相互作用下奥灰含水层易导致煤层底板突水。为进一步认识奥灰岩溶突水问题,文章以新集矿区深部1煤层开采为例,利用矿区近些年最新积累的奥灰钻孔资料,选取断层强度指数、...奥灰岩溶裂隙含水层是影响华北型煤矿深部开采的重要水害,在水-岩相互作用下奥灰含水层易导致煤层底板突水。为进一步认识奥灰岩溶突水问题,文章以新集矿区深部1煤层开采为例,利用矿区近些年最新积累的奥灰钻孔资料,选取断层强度指数、断层交叉点与尖灭点、含水层水压、富水性、隔水层等效厚度、脆塑比7个因素作为奥灰岩溶突水的主控因素,并结合层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)确定各主控因素影响权重。运用地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)空间分析功能建立各主控因素专题图,通过对专题栅格图归一化处理,将各主控因素按照权重进行空间复合叠加,最终获得1煤层底板奥灰岩溶突水危险性评价分区结果。将评价结果与突水系数法计算结果对比分析可知,基于GIS的煤层底板突水危险性评价方法更符合矿区实际地质情况,可以为矿区深部煤层开采与水害防治工作提供参考依据。展开更多
基金Natural Science Funds for the Innovative ResearchGroup of China Under Grant No.50321803
文摘An approach to analyze the seismic reliability of water distribution networks by combining a hydraulic analysis with a first-order reliability method (FORM), is proposed in this paper. The hydraulic analysis method for normal conditions is modified to accommodate the special conditions necessary to perform a seismic hydraulic analysis. In order to calculate the leakage area and leaking flow of the pipelines in the hydraulic analysis method, a new leakage model established from the seismic response analysis of buried pipelines is presented. To validate the proposed approach, a network with 17 nodes and 24 pipelines is investigated in detail. The approach is also applied to an actual project consisting of 463 nodes and 767 pipelines. The results show that the proposed approach achieves satisfactory results in analyzing the seismic reliability of large-scale water distribution networks.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50478094)
文摘In order to evaluate the seismic reliability of water distribution system and make rehabilitation decisions correspondingly, it is necessary to assess pipelines damage states and conduct functional analysis based on pipe leakage model. When an earthquake occurred, the water distribution system kept serving with leakage. By adding a virtual node at the centre of the pipeline with leakage, an efficient approach to pressure-driven analysis was developed for simulating a variety of low relative scenarios, and a hydraulic leakage model was also built to perform hydraulic analysis of the water supply network with seismic damage. Then the mean-first-order-second-moment method was used to analyse the seismic serviceability of the water distribution system. According to the assessment analysis, pipes that were destroyed or in heavy leakage were isolated and repaired emergently, which improved the water supply capability of the network and would constitute the basis for enhancing seismic reliability of the system. The proposed approach to seismic reliability and rehabilitation decision analysis on water distribution system is demonstrated effective through a case study.
文摘Water leaving the treatment works is usually of a high quality but its properties change during the transportation stage. Increasing awareness of the quality of the service provided within the water industry today and assessing the reliability of the water quality in a distribution system has become a major significance for decision on system operation based on water quality in distribution networks. Using together a water age model, a chlorine decay model and a model of acceptable maximum water age can assess the reliability of the water quality in a distribution system. First, the nodal water age values in a certain complex distribution system can be calculated by the water age model. Then, the acceptable maximum water age value in the distribution system is obtained based on the chlorine decay model. The nodes at which the water age values are below the maximum value are regarded as reliable nodes. Finally, the reliability index on the percentile weighted by the nodal demands reflects the reliability of the water quality in the distribution system. The approach has been applied in a real water distribution network. The contour plot based on the water age values determines a surface of the reliability of the water quality. At any time, this surface is used to locate high water age but poor reliability areas, which identify parts of the network that may be of poor water quality. As a result, the contour water age provides a valuable aid for a straight insight into the water quality in the distribution system.
文摘This paper reviews several recently-developed techniques for the minimum-cost optimal design of water-retaining structures (WRSs), which integrate the effects of seepage. These include the incorporation of uncertainty in heterogeneous soil parameter estimates and quantification of reliability. This review is limited to methods based on coupled simulation-optimization (S-O) models. In this context, the design of WRSs is mainly affected by hydraulic design variables such as seepage quantities, which are difficult to determine from closed-form solutions or approximation theories. An S-O model is built by integrating numerical seepage modeling responses to an optimization algorithm based on efficient surrogate models. The surrogate models (meta-models) are trained on simulated data obtained from finite element numerical code solutions. The proposed methodology is applied using several machine learning techniques and optimization solvers to optimize the design of WRS by incorporating different design variables and boundary conditions. Additionally, the effects of several scenarios of flow domain hydraulic conductivity are integrated into the S-O model. Also, reliability based optimum design concepts are incorporated in the S-O model to quantify uncertainty in seepage quantities due to uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity estimates. We can conclude that the S-O model can efficiently optimize WRS designs. The ANN, SVM, and GPR machine learning technique-based surrogate models are efficiently and expeditiously incorporated into the S-O models to imitate the numerical responses of simulations of various problems.
基金supported by the International Development Research Center of Canada[Grant Number 107093-001]National Natural Science Foundation of China:[GrantNumber 71403082]+7 种基金Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Science Research Project of China:[Grant Number 14YCJ790080]Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China:[Grant Numbers 2015T80768 and 2014M561992]National Social Science Foundation of China:[Grant Number 14BGL093]The First Henan University Philosophy and Social Science Innovation Team Support Plan of Education Department of Henan Province:[Grant Number 2012-CXTD-03]Philosophy and Social Science Key Breakthrough Project of Education Department of Henan Province:[Grant Number 2013-ZG-06]2017 Annual Scientific and Technological Innovation of Henan Province Talent(Humanities and Social Sciences)Support Program:[Grant Number 2017-cxrc-002]Young Backbone Teachers Scheme of Henan Colleges and Universities[Grant Number2015GGJS-085]Science and Technology Key Research Project of Education Department of Henan Province:[Grant Number 13A790472]
文摘This paper builds a water supply reliability econometric model to analyze climate changes and adaptation impact factors on water supply reliability of irrigation wells by using 100 villages' three-year(2010-2012) field survey data of five middle and eastern provinces of China.The results show that long-run climate change factors,adaptation measures,village-level organizations of irrigation management,as well as extreme climate factors affect the water supply reliability of irrigation wells significantly.Meanwhile,there are significant differences impacting different crops and provinces.This paper suggests that agriculture meteorological disaster monitoring and warning systems should be strengthened by increasing irrigation facilities construction and maintenance,promoting reform of agricultural irrigation water management system,and developing various forms of peasant cooperation organization in order to improve agricultural production capacity to adapt to climate change.
文摘The paper presents occurrence of rainfall using principles of fuzzy set theory and principles of reliability analysis. Both the abstract and the rest of the paper are discussed from these two points of view. First, a fuzzy inference model for predicting rainfall using scan data from the USDA Soil Climate Analysis Network Station at Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University (AAMU) campus for the year 2004 is presented. The model further reflects how an expert would perceive weather conditions and apply this knowledge before inferring a rainfall. Fuzzy variables were selected based on judging patterns in individual monthly graphs for 2003 and 2004 and the influence of different variables that caused rainfall. A decrease in temperature (TP) and an increase in wind speed (WS) when compared between the ith and (i ? 1)th day were found to have a positive relation with a rainfall (RF) occurrence in most cases. Therefore, TP and WS were used in the antecedent part of the production rules to predict rainfall (RF). Results of the model showed better performance when threshold values for 1) Relative Humidity (RH) of ith day;2) Humidity Increase (HI) between the ith and (i ? 1)th day;and 3) Product (P) of decrease in temperature (TP) and an increase in wind speed (WS) were introduced. The percentage of error was 12.35 when compared the calculated amount of rainfall with actual amount of rainfall. This is followed by prediction of rainfall using principles of reliability analysis. This is done by comparing theoretical probabilities with experimental probabilities for the occurrence of two main events, namely, Relative Humidity (RH) and Humidity Increase (HI) being in between specified threshold values. The experimental values of probability are falling in between μ ? σ and μ + σ for both RH and HI parameters, where μ is the mean value and σ is the standard deviation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42307189 and 42030701)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2023M740974).
文摘The actively heated fiber-optic(AHFO)technology has become emerged as a research focus due to its advantages of distributed,real-time measurement and good durability.These attributes have led to the gradual application of AHFO technology to the water content measurement of in situ soil.However,all existing in situ applications of AHFO technology fail to consider the effect of soilesensor contact quality on water content measurements,limiting potential for the wider application of AHFO technology.To address this issue,the authors propose a method for determining the soilesensor thermal contact resistance based on the principle of an infinite cylindrical heat source.This is then used to establish an AHFO water content measurement technology that considers the thermal contact resistance.The reliability and validity of the new measurement technology are explored through a laboratory test and a field case study,and the spatial-temporal evolution of the soil water content in the case is revealed.The results demonstrate that method for determining the soilesensor thermal contact resistance is highly effective and applicable to all types of soils.This method requires only the moisture content,dry density,and thermal response of the in situ soil to be obtained.In the field case,the measurement error of soil water content between the AHFO method,which takes into account the thermal contact resistance,and the neutron scattering method is only 0.011.The water content of in situ soil exhibits a seasonal variation,with an increase in spring and autumn and a decrease in summer and winter.Furthermore,the response of shallow soils to precipitation and evaporation is significant.These findings contribute to the enhancement of the accuracy of the AHFO technology in the measurement of the water content of in situ soils,thereby facilitating the dissemination and utilization of this technology.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Plan(Major Project of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan,Grant No.2006BAB04A13)
文摘In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP), two basic forms (series connection state and mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection) of the organization management chain can be abstracted. The indispensability of each form has been studied and is described in this paper. Through analysis of the reliability of the two basic forms, reliability models of the organization management chain in the series connection state and the mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection have been set up.
文摘In this paper, a new technique are developed for optimal design of water distribution system besed on reliability. It applies a linear programming algorithm to the optimal design based on reliability. Within a small optimal search step range,the objective function and constraints can be expressed in the first order Taylor-expanding form,and three sub-models (a steady-state simulation model, a reliability model and a linear optimization model) are linked each in optimal searches. Thus, a traditional non linear problem can be solved by a linear model, the computing burden is significantly decreased. Therefore, the linear optimal model developed by the paper has more practical significance.
文摘It is of great significance to analyze the chemical indexes of mine water and develop a rapid identification system of water source, which can quickly and accurately distinguish the causes of water inrush and identify the source of water inrush, so as to reduce casualties and economic losses and prevent and control water inrush disasters. Taking Ca<sup>2+</sup>, Mg<sup>2+</sup>, Na<sup>+</sup> + K<sup>+</sup>, , , Cl<sup>-</sup>, pH value and TDS as discriminant indexes, the principal component analysis method was used to reduce the dimension of data, and the identification model of mine water inrush source based on PCA-BP neural network was established. 96 sets of data of different aquifers in Panxie mining area were selected for prediction analysis, and 20 sets of randomly selected data were tested, with an accuracy rate of 95%. The model can effectively reduce data redundancy, has a high recognition rate, and can accurately and quickly identify the water source of mine water inrush.
文摘Water inrush,which is one of the challenging issues and hot topics in the tunneling industry,is very easy to occur during the construction of karst tunnels.The mechanism of water inrush of karst tunnels is discussed and analyzed in the paper:the water inrush of karst tunnels is generally divided into three steps,i.e.,the forming of the hazard source,the forming of the water inrush passage and the failure of the anti-inrush rock mass.The failure of the anti-inrush rock mass of karst tunnels are classified into 5 types,i.e.,the integral tensile-shear failure,the hydraulic fracturing,the infiltration induced sliding of the filling medium,the loss of key blocks and the comprehensive water inrush mode.The failure mechanism is studied on basis of typical cases and by means of numerical simulation or theoretical analysis.Conclusion is drawn that most of the water inrushes in actual tunneling are comprehensive water inrushes,which are the comprehensive results of the interrelation and interaction of various water inrush types,and that different types of water inrushes have related continuity and progressive evolution relationships under certain conditions.
文摘奥灰岩溶裂隙含水层是影响华北型煤矿深部开采的重要水害,在水-岩相互作用下奥灰含水层易导致煤层底板突水。为进一步认识奥灰岩溶突水问题,文章以新集矿区深部1煤层开采为例,利用矿区近些年最新积累的奥灰钻孔资料,选取断层强度指数、断层交叉点与尖灭点、含水层水压、富水性、隔水层等效厚度、脆塑比7个因素作为奥灰岩溶突水的主控因素,并结合层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)确定各主控因素影响权重。运用地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)空间分析功能建立各主控因素专题图,通过对专题栅格图归一化处理,将各主控因素按照权重进行空间复合叠加,最终获得1煤层底板奥灰岩溶突水危险性评价分区结果。将评价结果与突水系数法计算结果对比分析可知,基于GIS的煤层底板突水危险性评价方法更符合矿区实际地质情况,可以为矿区深部煤层开采与水害防治工作提供参考依据。