Seismic reliability analysis of urban water distribution network

An approach to analyze the seismic reliability of water distribution networks by combining a hydraulic analysis with a first-order reliability method （FORM）, is proposed in this paper. The hydraulic analysis method for normal conditions is modified to accommodate the special conditions necessary to perform a seismic hydraulic analysis. In order to calculate the leakage area and leaking flow of the pipelines in the hydraulic analysis method, a new leakage model established from the seismic response analysis of buried pipelines is presented. To validate the proposed approach, a network with 17 nodes and 24 pipelines is investigated in detail. The approach is also applied to an actual project consisting of 463 nodes and 767 pipelines. The results show that the proposed approach achieves satisfactory results in analyzing the seismic reliability of large-scale water distribution networks.

Assessment on reliability of water quality in water distribution systems

Water leaving the treatment works is usually of a high quality but its properties change during the transportation stage. Increasing awareness of the quality of the service provided within the water industry today and assessing the reliability of the water quality in a distribution system has become a major significance for decision on system operation based on water quality in distribution networks. Using together a water age model, a chlorine decay model and a model of acceptable maximum water age can assess the reliability of the water quality in a distribution system. First, the nodal water age values in a certain complex distribution system can be calculated by the water age model. Then, the acceptable maximum water age value in the distribution system is obtained based on the chlorine decay model. The nodes at which the water age values are below the maximum value are regarded as reliable nodes. Finally, the reliability index on the percentile weighted by the nodal demands reflects the reliability of the water quality in the distribution system. The approach has been applied in a real water distribution network. The contour plot based on the water age values determines a surface of the reliability of the water quality. At any time, this surface is used to locate high water age but poor reliability areas, which identify parts of the network that may be of poor water quality. As a result, the contour water age provides a valuable aid for a straight insight into the water quality in the distribution system.

Seismic Reliability and Rehabilitation Decision of Water Distribution System

In order to evaluate the seismic reliability of water distribution system and make rehabilitation decisions correspondingly, it is necessary to assess pipelines damage states and conduct functional analysis based on pipe leakage model. When an earthquake occurred, the water distribution system kept serving with leakage. By adding a virtual node at the centre of the pipeline with leakage, an efficient approach to pressure-driven analysis was developed for simulating a variety of low relative scenarios, and a hydraulic leakage model was also built to perform hydraulic analysis of the water supply network with seismic damage. Then the mean-first-order-second-moment method was used to analyse the seismic serviceability of the water distribution system. According to the assessment analysis, pipes that were destroyed or in heavy leakage were isolated and repaired emergently, which improved the water supply capability of the network and would constitute the basis for enhancing seismic reliability of the system. The proposed approach to seismic reliability and rehabilitation decision analysis on water distribution system is demonstrated effective through a case study.

An Overview of Recently Developed Coupled Simulation Optimization Approaches for Reliability Based Minimum Cost Design of Water Retaining Structures

This paper reviews several recently-developed techniques for the minimum-cost optimal design of water-retaining structures (WRSs), which integrate the effects of seepage. These include the incorporation of uncertainty in heterogeneous soil parameter estimates and quantification of reliability. This review is limited to methods based on coupled simulation-optimization (S-O) models. In this context, the design of WRSs is mainly affected by hydraulic design variables such as seepage quantities, which are difficult to determine from closed-form solutions or approximation theories. An S-O model is built by integrating numerical seepage modeling responses to an optimization algorithm based on efficient surrogate models. The surrogate models (meta-models) are trained on simulated data obtained from finite element numerical code solutions. The proposed methodology is applied using several machine learning techniques and optimization solvers to optimize the design of WRS by incorporating different design variables and boundary conditions. Additionally, the effects of several scenarios of flow domain hydraulic conductivity are integrated into the S-O model. Also, reliability based optimum design concepts are incorporated in the S-O model to quantify uncertainty in seepage quantities due to uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity estimates. We can conclude that the S-O model can efficiently optimize WRS designs. The ANN, SVM, and GPR machine learning technique-based surrogate models are efficiently and expeditiously incorporated into the S-O models to imitate the numerical responses of simulations of various problems.

Climate change and village adaptation impact on reliability of irrigation wells in China

This paper builds a water supply reliability econometric model to analyze climate changes and adaptation impact factors on water supply reliability of irrigation wells by using 100 villages' three-year(2010-2012) field survey data of five middle and eastern provinces of China.The results show that long-run climate change factors,adaptation measures,village-level organizations of irrigation management,as well as extreme climate factors affect the water supply reliability of irrigation wells significantly.Meanwhile,there are significant differences impacting different crops and provinces.This paper suggests that agriculture meteorological disaster monitoring and warning systems should be strengthened by increasing irrigation facilities construction and maintenance,promoting reform of agricultural irrigation water management system,and developing various forms of peasant cooperation organization in order to improve agricultural production capacity to adapt to climate change.

Predicting Rainfall Using the Principles of Fuzzy Set Theory and Reliability Analysis

The paper presents occurrence of rainfall using principles of fuzzy set theory and principles of reliability analysis. Both the abstract and the rest of the paper are discussed from these two points of view. First, a fuzzy inference model for predicting rainfall using scan data from the USDA Soil Climate Analysis Network Station at Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University (AAMU) campus for the year 2004 is presented. The model further reflects how an expert would perceive weather conditions and apply this knowledge before inferring a rainfall. Fuzzy variables were selected based on judging patterns in individual monthly graphs for 2003 and 2004 and the influence of different variables that caused rainfall. A decrease in temperature (TP) and an increase in wind speed (WS) when compared between the ith and (i ? 1)th day were found to have a positive relation with a rainfall (RF) occurrence in most cases. Therefore, TP and WS were used in the antecedent part of the production rules to predict rainfall (RF). Results of the model showed better performance when threshold values for 1) Relative Humidity (RH) of ith day;2) Humidity Increase (HI) between the ith and (i ? 1)th day;and 3) Product (P) of decrease in temperature (TP) and an increase in wind speed (WS) were introduced. The percentage of error was 12.35 when compared the calculated amount of rainfall with actual amount of rainfall. This is followed by prediction of rainfall using principles of reliability analysis. This is done by comparing theoretical probabilities with experimental probabilities for the occurrence of two main events, namely, Relative Humidity (RH) and Humidity Increase (HI) being in between specified threshold values. The experimental values of probability are falling in between μ ? σ and μ + σ for both RH and HI parameters, where μ is the mean value and σ is the standard deviation.

Reliability model of organization management chain of South-to-North Water Diversion Project during construction period

In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, two basic forms （series connection state and mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection） of the organization management chain can be abstracted. The indispensability of each form has been studied and is described in this paper. Through analysis of the reliability of the two basic forms, reliability models of the organization management chain in the series connection state and the mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection have been set up.

THE OPTIMAL DESIGN BASED ON RELIABILITY OF WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM BY LINEAR MODEL

In this paper, a new technique are developed for optimal design of water distribution system besed on reliability. It applies a linear programming algorithm to the optimal design based on reliability. Within a small optimal search step range,the objective function and constraints can be expressed in the first order Taylor-expanding form,and three sub-models (a steady-state simulation model, a reliability model and a linear optimization model) are linked each in optimal searches. Thus, a traditional non linear problem can be solved by a linear model, the computing burden is significantly decreased. Therefore, the linear optimal model developed by the paper has more practical significance.

采动岩体损伤与断层冲蚀协同致灾时空演化机制

随着我国煤矿开采向深部延伸,断层突水成为威胁煤矿安全生产的重大灾害之一。基于采动诱发断层突水相关研究成果,笔者提出了采动岩体损伤破裂−破碎岩体(断层)冲蚀协同致灾的突水概念模型,推导了2种介质的渗透性演化方程,系统性构建了工作面采动破坏与断层内部颗粒冲蚀协同致灾力学模型;数值模拟研究了采动岩体变形破坏、断层内颗粒运移以及渗流通道演化特征,系统性阐释了采动诱发断层突水的渗流灾变时空演化机制。研究结果表明:①随着工作面不断推进,底板采动岩体损伤场与断层冲蚀裂隙相连通,形成了含水层—断层—采动裂隙—工作面的渗流路径,并随着冲蚀时间增加,最终发展成为数条优势导水通道,造成工作面涌水量的急剧增大并发生滞后突水。②随着渗流时间增加,断层内部涌水量、裂隙开度均表现为缓变—突增—稳定3个阶段,冲蚀颗粒体积分数则呈现先增大后减小的变化趋势。③在研究矿区地质条件下,为预防发生断层突水,可采取超前注浆或留设防水煤柱等方法,超前注浆时间应在底板裂隙带连通断层之前,若不采取注浆措施则合理防水煤柱的留设宽度不应低于20 m。

Identification of Mine Water Inrush Source Based on PCA-BP Neural Network

It is of great significance to analyze the chemical indexes of mine water and develop a rapid identification system of water source, which can quickly and accurately distinguish the causes of water inrush and identify the source of water inrush, so as to reduce casualties and economic losses and prevent and control water inrush disasters. Taking Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+ + K+, , , Cl-, pH value and TDS as discriminant indexes, the principal component analysis method was used to reduce the dimension of data, and the identification model of mine water inrush source based on PCA-BP neural network was established. 96 sets of data of different aquifers in Panxie mining area were selected for prediction analysis, and 20 sets of randomly selected data were tested, with an accuracy rate of 95%. The model can effectively reduce data redundancy, has a high recognition rate, and can accurately and quickly identify the water source of mine water inrush.

陕西省煤矿典型水灾隐患特征及治理技术

陕西省煤炭资源丰富,2022年煤炭产量达7.46亿t,是我国主要产煤省份之一。由于全省煤矿区地质及水文地质条件差异明显,煤矿水灾类型多样,随着近年煤炭开采强度的增大,水灾事故时有发生,防治水形势较为严峻。以煤炭赋存条件为基础,系统总结区域水文地质结构特征,界定典型水灾类型及各类水灾影响区域分布,论述典型水灾的形成机理及特征,并提出了相应的防控技术。研究表明:(1)陕西省主要煤炭产区分为陕北、黄陇、渭北三大区,陕北侏罗纪煤田主要有顶板松散沙层水灾隐患、厚层砂岩水灾隐患、溃水溃沙灾害,局部区域分布有烧变岩对煤矿造成水灾隐患;黄陇煤田主要受顶板巨厚砂岩水灾隐患、离层溃水隐患、泥砂溃涌灾害隐患威胁;陕北石炭—二叠纪煤田和渭北煤田,主要受到煤层底板奥陶系灰岩水灾隐患威胁。(2)陕北侏罗系煤田顶板水灾隐患主要为顶板含水层受开采导水裂隙带扰动形成,导水裂隙波及砂岩含水层或松散沙层可形成持续大流量涌水,部分区域充水强度较大,在短时间水量较大超过排水系统能力时造成顶板水灾,在薄基岩区域垮落带直接导通松散沙层时可转变为溃水溃沙灾害,导水裂隙带影响到烧变岩富水区域时可形成瞬时水量大且持续的烧变岩水灾;黄陇煤田顶板巨厚砂岩含水层受采动导水裂隙带波及形成高强度持续涌水并可能形成顶板水灾,当含水层下部隔水层厚度较大时,可能形成离层溃水灾害,当近煤层顶板岩层松软遇水易崩解时可转变为泥砂溃涌灾害;陕北石炭—二叠纪煤田和渭北煤田,煤层开采底板扰动破坏带或断层等构造导通奥陶系灰岩含水层时,会引发极为严重的底板突水灾害,该类灾害具突发性强、瞬时水量大的特征。(3)各区域的顶板水灾隐患治理技术主要包括钻孔疏泄、注浆治理、开采参数控制等,底板水灾隐患治理技术主要包括区域注浆加固及封堵等;烧变岩水灾隐患主要采取帷幕注浆与钻孔探放有机结合的防治技术。

Study on Mechanism of Water Inrush of Karst Tunnels

Water inrush,which is one of the challenging issues and hot topics in the tunneling industry,is very easy to occur during the construction of karst tunnels.The mechanism of water inrush of karst tunnels is discussed and analyzed in the paper:the water inrush of karst tunnels is generally divided into three steps,i.e.,the forming of the hazard source,the forming of the water inrush passage and the failure of the anti-inrush rock mass.The failure of the anti-inrush rock mass of karst tunnels are classified into 5 types,i.e.,the integral tensile-shear failure,the hydraulic fracturing,the infiltration induced sliding of the filling medium,the loss of key blocks and the comprehensive water inrush mode.The failure mechanism is studied on basis of typical cases and by means of numerical simulation or theoretical analysis.Conclusion is drawn that most of the water inrushes in actual tunneling are comprehensive water inrushes,which are the comprehensive results of the interrelation and interaction of various water inrush types,and that different types of water inrushes have related continuity and progressive evolution relationships under certain conditions.

煤矿采动覆岩离层水害致灾因素勘查与预测评价

采动覆岩离层突水在我国各地矿区均较为常见且危害性较大,现有的规范中鲜有针对离层水害的具体工程地质和水文地质勘查方法。探索煤矿离层水害工程地质水文地质勘查与评价方法,能够推动我国矿井水害防治水平进一步提升。首先从煤矿采动覆岩高位离层水害孕灾机制出发,分析了离层水害从孕灾到致灾的工程地质条件,将我国现有的离层水害归纳为3种典型类型:离层动力突水、离层静水压涌突水和离层携泥砂突水。然后,确定了“水源”“通道”“力源”和“物源”为控制离层水害类型与强度的关键隐蔽致灾因素,将位于传统导水裂隙带以上,可发生离层突水的复合层位称为采动覆岩“突水离层带”,并提出了煤矿采动覆岩“突水离层带”的判别流程,划分勘查阶段,指明勘查要点。煤矿离层水害采前勘查应包括2个阶段:①开展覆岩基本工程地质和水文地质条件勘探,评估勘探区离层水害的可能性并确定潜在“突水离层带”的层位;②将“突水离层带”和“物源”层作为勘查目标层,开展离层水害致灾因素专项勘查,评定离层水害类型和强度。回采期间对水动力条件和覆岩裂隙演化进行探查。最后,基于离层水害致灾因素互馈演化致灾机制,建立了适用于采动覆岩离层水害的矿井区域预测综合评价模型,提出了全矿井/采区尺度的区域危险性分区、采前工作面突水位置判定及涌水量预计的煤矿采动覆岩离层水害预测评价方法。

富水裂隙围岩隧道涌水量计算方法与规律分析

富水裂隙区隧道涌水量预测精度较差,涌水问题尚未得到较好的解决。针对此问题,视裂隙围岩及注浆区为非均质各向异性介质,初期支护及二次支护结构为均质各向同性介质,构建了裂隙围岩下隧道涌水简化计算模型,基于地下水力学理论及流体质量守恒定律推导了富水裂隙区隧道涌水量计算公式。通过退化分析及案例工程现场实测数据验证了构建富水裂隙区隧道涌水简化计算模型的合理性及涌水量计算式求解的正确性,最后基于解析解揭示了各特征参数对富水裂隙区隧道涌水的影响规律,探讨了富水裂隙区隧道涌水机制。结果表明:理论计算值与现场实测值最大相对误差为8.1%,验证了构建模型的合理性及公式推导的正确性;隧道涌水量随裂隙最大宽度的增加而增大,受堵水结构的联合制约,两者近似呈线性关系;注浆区厚度与隧道半径比值在2倍以内时,隧道涌水量受注浆区厚度的影响显著;富水裂隙区隧道涌水受裂隙分布规律及支护结构的制约,应重视对裂隙分布的调查。

特厚煤层底板断层破坏与顶板垮断联动效应的CFDEM模拟研究

特厚煤层采场空间大、覆岩扰动范围广,顶板垮断产生的强扰动加卸荷载易导致底板断层破坏加剧。通过数值模拟研究特厚煤层底板断层突水与顶板垮断联动效应机理规律是开展水害防治的基础,关键在于掌握加卸载下岩体渐进破坏与裂隙流耦合特征。构建加卸载下拉、剪损伤演化方程,结合有效偏/球应力为基本变量的屈服准则与塑性势函数,得到完整岩块的塑性损伤本构;建立拉/剪、混合型加卸载过程中塑性位移与强度劣化关系,以平方拉剪应力与B-K准则为初始、完全断裂准则,形成非贯通裂隙断裂本构;提出岩块分离、压缩、剪切判据,结合实验数据建立离散块体间挤压、剪切摩擦本构与剪胀方程。基于质量/动量守恒、状态方程,并结合流体体积与浸没边界方法,形成裂隙岩体气−水二相流模拟理论。由此形成CFDEM数值计算程序,并将加卸载下塑性损伤、断裂、挤压/摩擦、流体属性分别赋予实体单元(岩块)、黏聚力单元(非贯通裂隙)、接触对(贯通裂隙)、欧拉单元(水和气)。根据宁武煤田北部矿区工程地质条件,建立特厚煤层底板断层突水与顶板垮断联动效应数值计算模型。结果表明:①CFDEM耦合程序及相应的理论模型可数值实现特厚煤层覆岩及底板断层从(准)连续体到离散体转化,以及地下水在裂隙中运移;②模拟条件下特厚煤层含断层底板的采动裂隙包络线呈w形,最深处超过55 m位于断层及其上盘,最浅处23 m位于断层下盘,而无构造底板处的破坏深度为24~36 m,已导通奥灰含水层;③特厚煤层底板普遍出现二次破坏现象。表现为无构造底板在超前工作面处破坏深度为24.0~29.3 m,但在采空区内普遍增加至31.5~36.0 m;断层及其上盘在超前工作面处裂隙总开度为0.34~0.86 m,但在采空区内迅速增加至3.6 m,形成突水优势通道。④底板断层突水与顶板垮断联动效应的根源在于覆岩高位关键岩层垮断失稳、砌体梁下沉与二次断裂,并导致底板二次破坏,突水风险加剧。

隧道突涌水灾害缩尺物理模型试验研究综述

随着我国经济的快速发展,隧道工程建设越来越多地面临着大埋深、高地应力、高地温、高渗透压力等复杂地质环境,运用物理模型试验开展复杂环境下隧道突涌水灾变机理与安全防控研究已成为岩石力学的热点问题。结合近年来国内外针对隧道突涌水灾变缩尺物理模型试验开展的研究工作,重点对该类物理模型的流固耦合相似理论、相似材料研制、渗透压加载方法等内容进行了系统梳理,并对下一步的可能发展方向进行展望。参考部分文献和突水典型案例后,总结了流固耦合相似准则和高地应力下的相似准则、相似材料选用方案及材料配比、试验中的水压加载方案,认为未来关注的重点包括考虑温度场的物理模型试验相似准则的研究和涌水涌泥与突水突泥间渐变过程的研究2个方面。

基于改进的SSA-BP神经网络的矿井突水水源识别模型研究

机器学习与寻优算法的结合在矿井突水水源识别上得到广泛应用,但突水水样数据具有随机性且寻优算法易陷入局部最优,提高模型泛化能力和跳出局部最优需进一步研究。针对上述问题,提出了一种改进的麻雀搜索算法(SSA)优化BP神经网络模型,用于对矿井突水水源进行定量辨识。以鲁能煤电股份有限公司阳城煤矿为研究对象,通过常规离子浓度分析、Piper三线图对该煤矿水样的水化学特征进行分析,初步判断矿井水来源于奥灰含水层和三灰含水层,并确定Na^(+)+K^(+)浓度、Ca^(2+)浓度、Mg^(2+)浓度、HCO_(3)^(-)浓度、SO_(4)^(2-)浓度、Cl^(-)浓度、矿化度、总硬度、pH值作为突水水源识别指标;建立基于改进SSA-BP神经网络的矿井突水水源识别模型:首先进行SSA参数设置,引入Sine混沌映射使麻雀种群均匀分布,然后通过计算适应度值进行麻雀种群的更新,引入随机游走策略扰动当前最优个体,如果满足终止条件,则获得最优BP神经网络权重和阈值,最后基于构建的BP神经网络,输出识别结果。研究结果表明:①改进的SSA-BP模型在训练集上的识别准确率达95.6%,在测试集上的识别准确率达100%。②改进的SSA-BP神经网络模型与BP神经网络模型、SSA-BP神经网络模型对比结果:BP神经网络模型误判率为5/18,SSA-BP神经网络模型的误判率为2/18,改进的SSA-BP神经网络模型误判率为0,迭代10次后趋于稳定,且与设定的目标误差相差最小,初始适应度值最优,识别结果可信度高。③将阳城煤矿5组矿井水水样数据作为输入层数据输入到训练好的模型中,矿井水水样的主要来源为奥灰含水层、三灰含水层和山西组含水层,模型识别结果与水化学特征分析的结论相互印证,实现了精准区分。

煤层采动底板突水物理模拟试验研究进展与展望

【目的】底板突水受特定地质构造、水-岩-应力及采掘扰动等因素叠加作用影响,具有复杂性、隐蔽性、突发性等特点。【方法】物理模拟试验能较好地还原底板岩层与承压水赋存环境、直观展现采动底板裂隙扩展及突水路径演化全过程、实时获取灾变各阶段多源数据信息,因而在底板突水研究方面具有独特优势。【结果和结论】对底板突水经典理论、标准规范、模拟试验及工程实践等方面的研究成果进行了回顾,重点梳理了试验加载装置及水压模拟方式、相似材料研制及其特性指标、监测技术及其观测系统设计3个方面的研究进展,其中在模拟水-岩-应力耦合环境下的三维模型底板突水全过程信息捕捉方面有较大突破。面对数智化研究大背景,分析当前底板突水物理模拟试验领域存在的不足,并据此指出未来应重点关注大型三维底板突水综合试验平台研制、基于标准化的多特性相似材料配比数据库建立、多相多场多维耦合监测预警系统构建、人工智能等数智化技术融合应用研究等发展方向。提出的思考有助于从装置、材料、技术等方面提升未来物理模拟试验水平,从而更好支撑煤矿底板水害数智化防治基础研究工作高质量发展。

煤岩体突水通道骨料灌注运移堆积机制试验

为揭示突水通道中骨料运移堆积的演化规律,开展了动水条件下骨料灌注试验,得到了骨料的初始沉积位置、堆积体形成方向以及堆积体极限堆积高度与水流速、骨料灌注速度等影响因素的内在关联。结果表明:在1.0 m/s高流速动水环境中,骨料堆积体形成方向为先逆水流方向生长至投料孔底后转为顺水流方向生长;在0.3 m/s低流速条件下,采用口径36 mm漏斗投料同口径18 mm相比,骨料灌注总量相同时,其堆积体的极限高度提升了41%。基于数值力学模型——计算流体动力学-离散元方法(computational fluid dynamics and distinct element method,CFD-DEM),研究了骨料灌注期间突水通道内流场的时空分布特征以及骨料堆积体的过水阻力作用对突水通道内静水压力的影响机制。

底板出水水源判识及快速治理检验技术研究与应用

为了快速治理工作面底板出水,首先通过水化学分析方法判识了主要出水水源为底板砂岩水,底板采动裂隙沟通隐伏断层形成了导水通道。提出了基于地面定向钻的分区域分阶段注浆治理思路,将治理区域划分为回采出水区和物探异常区,针对回采出水区提出分阶段对底板垂向导水通道进行封堵。在停采线前方30 m进行第1阶段注浆,在停采线后方30 m进行第2阶段注浆。在注浆过程中通过分析出水点水质变化以及PQT曲线,对治理效果进行了预评价;治理结束后根据出水量衰减和井下钻探情况验证了治理效果。表明了基于地面定向钻进的分区域分阶段注浆治理技术可以快速有效地封堵底板出水,研究结果为华北型煤田底板砂岩出水治理提供了宝贵经验。