Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the greenhouse gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2(IPCC,2001),and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting ...Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the greenhouse gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2(IPCC,2001),and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data,the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21st century.Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year return period.The total flooding areas are 98.3×103and 104.9×103km2for 2050 and 2080,respectively.For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise,i.e.,the coast of Bohai Bay,the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province,and the Pearl River Delta,the flooded areas are 5.0×103,64.1×103and 15.3×103km2in 2050 and 5.2×103,67.8×103and 17.2×103km2in 2080,respectively.展开更多
以黄河上游多年调节水库龙羊峡及下游刘家峡水库为研究对象,考虑来水不确定性影响,建立梯级水库群多目标随机优化模型,并基于理想点法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)决策方法,求解当年发...以黄河上游多年调节水库龙羊峡及下游刘家峡水库为研究对象,考虑来水不确定性影响,建立梯级水库群多目标随机优化模型,并基于理想点法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)决策方法,求解当年发电量与年末水位Pareto方案集中最佳方案,探讨来水频率及起调水位对年末水位和发电量的影响,验证年末期望水位保证多年调节水库发电效益的可靠性。结果表明:在不确定来水条件下,龙羊峡水库年末期望水位与龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库年期望发电量之间存在竞争关系;龙羊峡水库来水频率越低、起调水位越高时,龙羊峡水库年末水位越高,龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库发电量越大;基于提出的年末水位优化方法可大幅缩减龙羊峡水库现行调度方式下年末水位范围,且保障发电效益的可靠性在98%以上。展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program(No.2007BAC03A06)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)project(No.40976006)+2 种基金the National Marine Public Welfare Research Project of China(No.201005019)Key Laboratory Project(Key Laboratory of Coastal Disasters and Defence,Ministry of Education,No.200808)Laboratory of Coastal Disasters and Defence,Ministry of Education)(No.200802)
文摘Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the greenhouse gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2(IPCC,2001),and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data,the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21st century.Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year return period.The total flooding areas are 98.3×103and 104.9×103km2for 2050 and 2080,respectively.For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise,i.e.,the coast of Bohai Bay,the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province,and the Pearl River Delta,the flooded areas are 5.0×103,64.1×103and 15.3×103km2in 2050 and 5.2×103,67.8×103and 17.2×103km2in 2080,respectively.
文摘以黄河上游多年调节水库龙羊峡及下游刘家峡水库为研究对象,考虑来水不确定性影响,建立梯级水库群多目标随机优化模型,并基于理想点法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)决策方法,求解当年发电量与年末水位Pareto方案集中最佳方案,探讨来水频率及起调水位对年末水位和发电量的影响,验证年末期望水位保证多年调节水库发电效益的可靠性。结果表明:在不确定来水条件下,龙羊峡水库年末期望水位与龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库年期望发电量之间存在竞争关系;龙羊峡水库来水频率越低、起调水位越高时,龙羊峡水库年末水位越高,龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库发电量越大;基于提出的年末水位优化方法可大幅缩减龙羊峡水库现行调度方式下年末水位范围,且保障发电效益的可靠性在98%以上。
