Projection Pursuit Dynamic Cluster Model and its Application to Water Resources Carrying Capacity Evaluation

The research shows that projection pursuit cluster (PPC) model is able to form a suitable index for overcom-ing the difficulties in comprehensive evaluation, which can be used to analyze complex multivariate prob-lems. The PPC model is widely used in multifactor cluster and evaluation analysis, but there are a few prob-lems needed to be solved in practice, such as cutoff radius parameter calibration. In this study, a new model-projection pursuit dynamic cluster (PPDC) model-based on projection pursuit principle is developed and used in water resources carrying capacity evaluation in China for the first time. In the PPDC model, there are two improvements compared with the PPC model, 1) a new projection index is constructed based on dynamic cluster principle, which avoids the problem of parameter calibration in the PPC model success-fully;2) the cluster results can be outputted directly according to the PPDC model, but the cluster results can be got based on the scatter points of projected characteristic values or the re-analysis for projected character-istic values in the PPC model. The results show that the PPDC model is a very effective and powerful tool in multifactor data exploratory analysis. It is a new method for water resources carrying capacity evaluation. The PPDC model and its application to water resources carrying capacity evaluation are introduced in detail in this paper.

Critical chain construction with multi-resource constraints based on portfolio technology in South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Recently, the critical chain study has become a hot issue in the project management research field. The construction of the critical chain with multi-resource constraints is a new research subject. According to the system analysis theory and project portfolio theory, this paper discusses the creation of project portfolios based on the similarity principle and gives the definition of priority in multi-resource allocation based on quantitative analysis. A model with multi-resource constraints, which can be applied to the critical chain construction of the A-bid section in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, was proposed. Contrast analysis with the comprehensive treatment construction method and aggressive treatment construction method was carried out. This paper also makes suggestions for further research directions and subjects, which will be useful in improving the theories in relevant research fields.

Fuzzy Approach to Determining Priority Preorders of Water Resources Projects

In this paper,the criteria set related to the priority preorders of water resources projects is introduced.A fuzzy multiple criteria group decision-making model is established,which incorporates quantitative analysis,judgments,experience and preferences of decision-makers.The model is used in practice to determine the priority preorders of five water resources projects,and the results show that the best choice can supply more new employment,domestic water and irrigation water,and has better quality.

Assessment on the Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Karst Area Based on the Cosine Vector Included Angle

[Objective] The research aimed to assess the water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou Province based on the cosine vector included angle method. [Method] By using the cosine vector included angle method, the index weight was determined. The projection value of water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou Province was counted by using the multi-objective gray relational projection method. Moreover, the projection value which was counted by the index weight determined by the mean-variance method was as the control. [Result] The projection values which were obtained by two kinds of methods were very close, and the ordering result was consistent. [Conclusion] In the assessment of water resources carrying capacity, it was feasible to use the cosine vector included angle method to determine the index weight.

Water resources development in Turkey

The Southeastern Anatolia Projec(tGAP),one of the most important projects for developing remarkable natural resources of the world,is accepted as a change for getting benefit from rich water and agricultural resources of the Southeastern Anatolia Region.The GAP Project has been considered as a regional development projects through years,but the dimensions of sustainability,protection of environment and participatory have been attached to the master of the project in recent years.When the GAP Project is completed,the Upper Mesopotomia, the centers of many civilisation,will re-again its importance as it had in the ancient times,and will be alive a center of civilisation.Moreover,when the problem of water shortage and water supplies in the world for the future is kept in mind,the importance of Southeastern Anatolia′s water supplies will be doubled.For this reason,the GAP Project,developed by depending on water and natural resources of the region,will have an important place in the world.The aim of this study is to introduce the region with rich natural resources and the GAP Project.For this reason,firstly,the natural potential of the region will be introduced.Second,the GAP Project will be presented in details.In the third stage,the projects being processed for protecting the natural sources and environment will be analyzed.In the last stage,strategies and policies to develop and to protect the natural resources of the region in short,mid,and long terms will be proposed.

Impact of the eastern water diversion from the south to the north project on the saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary in China

The south to the north project (WDP) on the saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary is studied by the improved three-dimensionai (3D) numerical model.The net unit width flux in the Changjiang Estuary as well as the sectional salt flux is calculated in the North Branch (NB),the South Branch (SB),the North Channel (NC),the South Channel (SC),the North Passage (NP) and the South Passage (SP),respectively.The net seaward water flux in the SB is reduced,and the net water flux spilling over from the NB to the SB is enhanced after the eastern WDP.Under the mean river discharge condition in the dry season,the net salt flux spilling over from the NB to the SB is increased by 2.09 t/s and 0.52 t/s during the spring and neap tides,respectively,due to the eastern WDP.The saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary is enhanced by the eastern WDP.Compared with that during the spring tide,the net water diversion ratio during the neap tide in the NC is smaller,and thus the enhancement of the saltwater intrusion by the eastern WDP is smaller in the NC,and larger in the NP and the SP.The tidally averaged surface salinity at the water intakes of the Dongfengxisha Reservoir,the Chenhang Reservoir and the Qingcaosha Reservoir rises both during the spring and neap tides.

Preliminary Study on Strategic Water Transfer Project in Western China

Strategic Water Transfer Project of Western China will transfer water from the Dadu river, the Yalong river, the Jinsha river, the Lancang river and the Nujiang river to the Daliushu project as head work of main canal on the Yellow river. And then,the water will be diverted to Neimongol and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous regions,with transfered annual volume of water 80 billion m\+3. The project possesses great comprehensive benefit. The construction of the project will not only change the appearance of the whole Northwest China, but also open up a wide way for the sustainable development of China in future.

Hydrologic Monitoring Plan of the Brazilian Water Producer/PCJ Project

Both Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) and Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) have a wide range of strategies that include different economic instruments for nature conservation. Although the generation and maintenance of payment for hydrologic ecosystem services (Water-PES) is expanding in Brazil, there are difficulties in the implementation of projects. Due to the complexity and non-linearity of the hydrological processes, also affecting both EbA and Water-PES goals, monitoring quali-quantitative aspects of streams have been here addressed as a useful management tool. This study presents the Hydrological Monitoring Plan (HMP) of the Water Producer/PCJ project, operating between 2009-2014, in order to: 1) evaluate the impact of project actions under water quali-quantitative aspects;and 2) promote the incorporation of HMP’s elements in water resources management. HMP of the Water Producer/PCJ project has been implemented following the conditions for efficiency (baseline, long-term scale compatible with the actions of the project, in the experimental and reference watersheds). In addition, HMP is being implemented from upstream to downstream in catchments with areas ranging from 17 to 130 km2. This proposal favors the quantification and valuation of hydrologic services that could be assessed by ecohydrologic monitoring and modeling. Thus, we look forward to the consolidation of the Brazilian information system of water resources, the reduction of modeling uncertainties and integrated assessment of the consequences of land-use/land-cover change that strongly impact goals of EbA and Water-PES initiatives.

Water Security Situation in Haihe River Basin after South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The over-exploitation of water resources in the Haihe River Basin （HRB） has now become a serious problem. This is clearly evidenced by the fact that many local rivers and lakes are drying up and the total amount of over-exploited groundwater has reached over 1000×10^8m^3. It is important to note that the exploitation of water resources in HRB was reasonable before 1979. After 1980, however, over-exploitation happened with an annual average amount of 40×10^8m^3. Both the dry season and rapid economic growth in HRB took place at the same time. Therefore, the over-exploitation of water in HRB was actually the negative result of the conjunction of a continuous dry season and rapid economic growth. So the over-exploitation would not be as serious as it is today if either of the above two stopped. After the first stage of south-to-north water transfer project, the water shortage problem in HRB could be eased for the following reasons： firstly, water transfer project will bring to the Basin 60x108m3 water resources; secondly, a wet season will come back eventually according to natural law of climate variability; finally, its agricultural and industrial use and total water consumption all have decreased from the peak value, so that the groundwater table will raise certainly and ecological water in rivers and lakes that were dried-up will be partly restored. In the future, the main problem of water resources security in HRB will include water pollution, operation risk of the south-to-north water transfer project, groundwater pollution and engineering geological hazards that may be brought by groundwater rise. The proposed countermeasures are as follows： keeping strengthening water demand management, raising water price as well as subsidies for the low- income family and improving other water related policies, preventing and dealing with water pollution seriously and getting fully prepared for the operation of south-to-north water transfer project.

引江济淮工程(河南段)水资源调配系统设计与开发

为强化引江济淮工程(河南段)水资源统一调配,基于Spring Boot和Vue前后端分离开发的模式,利用天地图API、WebGL、Echarts等技术设计研发引江济淮工程(河南段)水资源调配系统。从设计思路、功能界面、关键技术3个角度论述系统设计思路和实现过程,从而实现地理信息服务、供需水预测、水资源优化配置、水资源优化调度等功能,实现水量分配可视化、运行调度智能化和跨流域调水管控一体化。系统测试结果表明:引江济淮工程(河南段)水资源调配系统的建立提高了受水区水资源精细化管理的水平,解决了引江济淮工程(河南段)跨流域调水的配置难题,为受水区水资源高效利用提供有效的技术支撑。

水网布局下黄河流域应对极端枯水的关键科学问题

变化环境下极端气象水文事件频发,长江、黄河面临同枯风险。在国家水网建设背景下,为提高长江、黄河同枯的极端不利情景下黄河流域水资源安全保障能力,本文分析了长江、黄河两大流域水资源安全面临的现实问题,识别了变化环境下大型流域枯水遭遇—水危机形成—跨流域调水潜力—多线路成网互济—极端枯水下水资源安全保障中亟需破解的关键科学问题,构建了水网布局下黄河流域应对极端枯水的总体研究框架,提出该领域重点研究方向包括:变化环境下长江、黄河极端枯水遭遇规律与空间变异机制,水危机风险多链路传导与复合影响定量评估,极端枯水下跨流域调水挖潜增供,长江和黄河跨流域联合调配与多线路互济精细化调控、极端枯水下流域水资源韧性提升优化调控等。

综合水价内涵、形成机制及实施路径探析

在我国南水北调工程受水区水价管理问题分析的基础上,考虑我国南水北调受水区推进综合水价改革的现实需求,参考电价和天然气价格形成机制,系统解析了综合水价内涵及形成机制,明确综合水价具有区域水资源一体化管理、各类水源成本统一核算和用户终端水价差异化核定特征,提出综合水价需具备工程一体化、管理一体化、监管制度化的实施基础,通过供给侧一体化定价、用户侧差别化定价和管理侧梯次化推进落实综合水价改革,最后提出了推进综合水价改革的相关建议,为我国综合水价改革提供技术支撑,并服务于相关决策的制定。

江苏省江水北调工程水量调度

江水北调工程以向江苏境内工农业及城乡生活供水为主,同时保障改善洪泽湖、骆马湖生态,但工程运行现状存在运行成本高、湖泊弃水量大等不足。为此,采用模拟和优化技术相结合的方式,以供水缺额最小、湖泊水位超限制最小和泵站运行成本最低为优先级设定目标函数,构建江水北调工程年水量调度概化模型,开展不同水平年、不同补湖水位以及高水低用3种调度情景分析。结果表明:骆马湖调蓄库容小,调水运行期使得水位波动频繁,中运河泵站会同频开启补湖,且容易达到输水能力上限;适当降低洪泽湖补湖水位,可充分利用湖泊富余水量,使调水成本降低;完全禁止骆马湖高水低用会加重洪泽湖以下梯级线路供水任务的运行负担,同时增加骆马湖的弃水量,适当允许高水低用可使成本减小,减少泵站抽水任务。建立的模型以及相关研究成果可为江水北调工程调度运行提供一定参考。

考虑心理倾向的大型水资源配置工程交易过程锦标激励

大型水资源配置工程特点是呈线状分布,项目法人一般组织多个工程承包方平行实施,即与多个承包方同时交易。在委托代理理论视阈下,这属于“一对多”的委托代理关系,即项目法人要同时面临源自多个代理人/承包方的道德风险。构建了考虑心理倾向的锦标激励模型,通过经典激励模型的求解,分析锦标激励差额及心理倾向对多承包方最优努力水平的影响。研究发现,承包方在质量、进度和施工安全上的最优努力水平随着锦标激励差额的增加而增加,随着承包方努力成本系数的增加而减少;承包方在这3个目标上的最优努力程度随着同情心理倾向系数的增加而减小,随着嫉妒心理偏好系数的增加而增加。因此,正确识别多承包方的心理倾向程度,并制定恰当的锦标激励机制,对提高大型水资源配置工程的建设绩效具有重要意义。

气候变化对南水北调西线工程的影响及建议

南水北调工程是国家水网的重要组成部分,其西线工程建设是缓解我国西北、华北地区水资源短缺的重要举措。气候变化下西线工程引水区和受水区水资源情势直接关系到工程的规划建设与运行方式。基于历史实测资料和气候模式情景,采用数理统计与水文模拟相结合的途径分析了气候变化对南水北调西线工程引水区和受水区水资源的影响。结果表明:1)1961—2020年西线调水区和受水区气候变化以暖湿化为主要特征,调水区年径流量整体稳定略增,受水区年径流量显著性减少。2)未来中期(2035年)和远期(2050年),调水区和受水区气温继续显著升高,降水多呈非显著增加;未来中期、远期调水区年径流量较基准期(1961—2000年)分别增加1.42%和2.08%,受水区年径流量分别减少1.02%和0.28%。3)未来气候变化下,调水区年径流量相对稳定,能够满足调水需求,受水区年径流量略减,对跨流域调水需求有所增加。为确保南水北调西线工程的长期稳定运行,建议加强气候变化及其影响的不确定性研究,制定科学合理的应对措施,以应对未来可能的水资源短缺的挑战。

基于自适应混沌精英变异差分进化算法的中长期水资源优化调度

中长期水资源优化调度问题是一类具有非线性、多阶段、高维度和多重约束特性的复杂优化问题。针对经典智能算法在求解此类问题时容易陷入局部最优或者收敛效率较低等问题,应用混沌搜索策略增强算法的探索能力,同时改进传统算法的变异方式,向精英个体学习以提升收敛速度,提出自适应混沌精英变异差分进化(ACEDE)算法。将所提出的算法应用于珠江三角洲水资源配置工程中长期调度进行实例研究,并与经典智能算法进行对比分析。结果表明:①ACEDE算法在全局探索能力、收敛精度与速度上实现了全面提升,并且表现出良好的适应性。相较于传统差分进化(DE)算法,2030年水平年6月份和2040年水平年6月份调度中ACEDE算法所计算的电费成本分别节省了74.23万元和23.55万元,降低了6.68%和1.52%。②在珠江三角洲水资源配置工程中长期调度中,充分利用调蓄水库库容满足高分水量需求,同时放缓月末补水充库过程,能够有效控制泵站的平稳运行,达到降低电费成本的目的。

昆仑山北坡区域高质量发展面临的问题、机遇与挑战

昆仑山北坡区域是新时代维护国家安全的重要战略部署区和“丝绸之路经济带”核心区关键通道,战略地位十分突出。但由于历史和自然的原因,该区域经济发展相对滞后。系统分析显示,昆仑山北坡区域目前存在的水资源利用上线偏低、水利工程建设严重滞后、城镇化进程缓慢、产业布局相对单一且缺少重要产业布局,以及区域高质量发展动能不足等问题,结合区域自然环境特点和发展机遇,提出加快构建经济带城市群体系,打造多产业协同发展的昆仑山北坡经济带,大幅提升水资源上线和水利工程管控能力,为昆仑山北坡农业提质增效提供水资源保障,系统打造昆仑山北坡农-林-牧复合基地,构建多元化食物供给体系,以能补水,提升资源综合利用效率,通过兵地优势互补、资源共享,加快推进昆仑山北坡经济带建设和高质量发展等建议。研究成果可为加快昆仑山北坡经济带生态安全和高质量发展提供科技支撑。

时空异质性视角下长江经济带水资源系统韧性评估及调控因子分析

水资源系统韧性的评估与调控是缓解水资源危机和规避水资源风险的重要途径之一。从水资源的自然资源、社会经济、生态环境等属性出发,综合考虑水资源系统韧性的抵抗性、恢复性、适应性特征,构建了包含水资源、水经济、水福利、水管理、水生态和水环境6个维度的水资源系统韧性评价指标体系,建立了基于麻雀搜索算法的投影寻踪模型,运用自然断点法识别区域空间分异特征,采用因子探测识别影响水资源系统韧性空间分布格局的调控因子。通过对2010—2019年长江经济带11个省(市)水资源系统韧性的分析发现,在空间上,长江经济带水资源系统韧性表现为西部最优、东部次之、中部最末,且南部优于北部;在时间上,长江经济带水资源系统韧性虽有波动但整体呈现上升的趋势。从6个维度来看,水生态韧性维度的韧性值区间跨度较大,在0.08~0.52之间波动,水福利韧性最高,水环境韧性次之。水资源和水福利的相关因子对水资源系统韧性的影响较为明显,水经济中的工业废水治理投资占GDP的比重和万元工业增加值用水量2个指标以及水福利中的供水管道密度和人均供水量2个指标的影响力逐渐上升。通过对长江经济带水资源系统韧性和调控因子的分析,有针对性地提出了提高长江经济带水资源系统韧性的对策建议。

基于水网视角的水资源与关联要素适配性评价

为研究水资源与关联要素的空间错配问题,基于水网视角,根据适配理论和水资源多维属性理论,提出了包含资源层、社会层、经济层和生态层的水资源与关联要素适配性评价方法,并应用于南水北调中线一期工程影响区。结果表明:该方法可较为合理、系统地揭示水资源与关联要素的适配特征;2016—2020年南水北调中线一期工程影响区水资源与关联要素空间分布相对合理,整体基尼系数为0.388,资源层和社会层水资源与关联要素空间适配性较好,基尼系数分别为0.283和0.284,而经济层和生态层水资源与关联要素错配问题严重,基尼系数为0.501和0.486;南水北调中线一期工程通水后,水资源与关联要素的空间适配性在资源层、社会层、经济层有不同程度改善,在生态层变化不大。