Application of the Bottom-up Method on Risk Evaluation of Climate Change in Water Resources System

Traditional approach to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources systems always begins with downscaling general circulation models( GCMs) and proceeding back to the hydrological model. This approach has some distinct disadvantages: 1) GCM must be downscaled; 2) different GCMs are difficult to be reconciled for a given climate change scenario;3) the uncertainty of GCMs is far from the requirement of the evaluation of climate change impacts. To overcome these limits of the traditional method,a new method termed as "bottom-up"was used for climate risk assessment that linked vulnerability assessment with climate information to assess the risk of climate change impacts on the Quabbin Reservoir,and United States under A2 scenario.The result shows that the risks are around 20% in 2006-2035 and 2036-2055,50% in 2066-2095.

Carrying Capacity and Coupling Coordination of Water and Land Resources Systems in Arid and Semi-arid Areas: A Case Study of Yulin City, China

Quantitatively assessing the carrying capacity of water and land resources systems in arid and semi-arid areas is crucial for achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.In this work,taking Yulin City in China as a case study and employing the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation(CRITIC)method,a modified model of coupling degree was developed to evaluate the car-rying capacity of water and land resources systems endowment and utilization,as well as their coupling coordination degree from 2013 to 2020.Our findings indicate that the water and land resources of Yulin are diminishing due to declines in agriculture,higher industrial water use,and wetland shrinkage.However,reallocating domestic water for ecological sustainability and reducing sloping farmland can mitigate this trend of decline.Temporally,as the coupling coordination between water and land resources system endowment in Yulin continuously improved,the coupling coordination between water and land resources system utilization first decreased and then in-creased with 2016 as the turning point.Spatially,the carrying capacity of water and land resources systems,the coupling coordination degree between water and land resources system endowment,and the coupling coordination degree between water and land resources system utilization in Yulin exhibited the same pattern of being higher in the six northern counties than in the six southern counties.Improving the water resources endowment is vital for the highly efficient use of water and land resources.

Discussion on Influencing Factors of Water Resources Environment and Strategies for Protecting Water Ecology

At present,the major problems facing the water resource environment worldwide include water pollution,water resource shortage,and water ecosystem degradation.The discharge of industrial wastewater,agricultural non-point source pollution,and the discharge of urban sewage lead to a serious decline in water quality,which directly affects the safety of human drinking water and the living environment of aquatic organisms.Additionally,the unbalanced distribution and excessive exploitation of water resources lead to the problem of water shortage in many areas,which then leads to social and economic contradictions and ecological crises.In terms of ecosystems,the phenomena of water ecological degradation and reduction of biodiversity are increasingly obvious,and the carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems are gradually declining.This paper aims to analyze the natural,social,and economic factors affecting the water resource environment,and propose effective strategies to protect the water ecology.To provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the long-term development of the water ecosystem.

Influence of Anthropogenic Activities on Surface Water Resources—Case of the Sub-Prefecture of Kamsar-Boké

Living fishery resources, although rich and important for human populations, are subject to strong anthropization, thus causing a change in the environmental parameters of aquatic ecosystems. These multiple combined pressures: chemical, hydro-morphological, thermal or trophic, affect and disrupt the functioning of aquatic organisms. The objective of this study was to assess the main human pressures influencing the surface water resources of the Kamsar sub-prefecture, in order to propose mitigation measures. The following methodological approach was adopted: 1) Survey of managers and analysis records;2) Survey of stakeholders;3) Assessment of the effect of human activities on surface water resources;4) Data processing;5) Corrective measures. The survey farmers working near aquatic environments, revealed a low use of chemical substances, in particular 3 to 11 kg of fertilizer and 0 to 3 boxes of herbicide on fields of 40 m2 to 2 ha. Some physico-chemical parameters have been determined: Temperature (28.5˚C, 23.7˚C, 22.8˚C, 21.3˚C, 21.6˚C), Salinity (26.9‰, 21.9‰, 21.5‰, 15‰, 15.3‰) and Turbidity (21.3 UTN, 19.3 UTN, 17.8 UTN, 16.7 UTN, 17 UTN). These values show a fluctuation in the environmental parameters of aquatic ecosystems, which constitutes an obstacle to the development and survival of the resources.

Operating mechanism and set pair analysis model of a sustainable water resources system

There is no altemative to the world＇s water resources, and their increasing scarcity is making it difficult to meet the world population＇s water needs. This paper presents a sustainable water resources system （SWRS） and analyzes the operating mechanism that makes it possible to evaluate the status of such a system. A SWRS can be described as a complex coupling system that integrates water resources, social, economic and ecological systems into a whole. The SWRS＇s operating mechanism is composed of dynamic, resistance and coordination components, and it interacts with and controls the system＇s evolution process. The study introduces a new approach, set pair analysis theory, to measure the state of a SWRS, and an evaluation index system is established using the subsystems and operating mechanism of a SWRS. The evaluation index system is separated into three levels （goal level, criteria level and index level） and divides the index standard into five grades. An evaluation model of the SWRS based on set pair analysis theory is constructed, and an example of SWRS evaluation in Shanghai is presented. The connection degrees of the index in the three levels are calculated, and the connection degree of the goal index is calculated to be 0.342, which classifies the city＇s SWRS condition as grade 2. The sustainable use of water resources in the region is determined to be at a relatively adequate level that meets the requirements of sustainable development.

Risk analysis methods of the water resources system under uncertainty

The main characteristic of the water resources system(WRS)is its great complexity and uncertainty,which makes it highly desirable to carry out a risk analysis of the WRS.The natural environmental,social economic conditions as well as limitations of human cognitive ability are possible sources of the uncertainties that need to be taken into account in the risk analysis process.In this paper the inherent stochastic uncertainty and cognitive subjective uncertainty of the WRS are discussed first,from both objective and subjective perspectives.Then the quantitative characterization methods of risk analysis are introduced,including three criteria(reliability,resiliency and vulnerability)and five basic optimization models(the expected risk value model,conditional value at risk model,chance-constrained risk model,minimizing probability of risk events model,and the multi-objective optimization model).Finally,this paper focuses on the various methods of risk analysis under uncertainty,which are summarized as random,fuzzy and mixed methods.A more comprehensive risk analysis methodology for the WRS is proposed based on the comparison of the advantages,disadvantages and applicable conditions of these three methods.This paper provides a decision support of risk analysis for researchers,policy makers and stakeholders of the WRS.

Study on the Multi-dimension Evaluation Index System of Agricultural Water Resources in Liaoning Province

[Objective] This study aimed to establish the multi-dimensional evaluation index system of agricultural water resources in Liaoning Province. [Method] Delphi method in conjunction with AHP method was adopted to establish the multi-dimensional evaluation index system of agricultural water resources in Liaoning Province, and all the indexes in each hierarchy were ranked overall according to their weights. [Result] There were three hierarchies in this index system, totally including 21 indexes, among which water resource exploitation and utilization rate, sewage treatment rate and utilization of available water resources were the three crucial factors influencing the sustainable development. [Conclusion] This evaluation index system can reflect the true sustainable situation of the agricultural water resources in Liaoning Province.

A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land:a model for Manas River Basin

The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors： 1 ） natural surface and groundwater resources; 2） water demand; 3） the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4） water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.

System dynamics model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity and its application

A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of existing water utilization, （2） water conservation/saving, and （3） water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.

Modeling and analyzing supply-demand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang from a perspective of ecosystem services

Water shortage is one bottleneck that limits economic and social developments in arid and semi-arid areas.As the impacts of climate change and human disturbance intensify across time,uncertainties in both water resource supplies and demands increase in arid and semi-arid areas.Taking a typical arid region in China,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,as an example,water yield depth(WYD)and water utilization depth(WUD)from 2002 to 2018 were simulated using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model and socioeconomic data.The supply-demand relationships of water resources were analyzed using the ecosystem service indices including water supply-demand difference(WSDD)and water supply rate(WSR).The internal factors in changes of WYD and WUD were explored using the controlled variable method.The results show that the supplydemand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang were in a slight deficit,but the deficit was alleviated due to increased precipitation and decreased WUD of irrigation.WYD generally experienced an increasing trend,and significant increase mainly occurred in the oasis areas surrounding both the Junggar Basin and Tarim Basin.WUD had a downward trend with a decline of 20.70%,especially in oasis areas.Water resources in most areas of Xinjiang were fully utilized and the utilization efficiency of water resources increased.The water yield module in the InVEST model was calibrated and validated using gauging station data in Xinjiang,and the result shows that the use of satellite-based water storage data helped to decrease the bias error of the InVEST model by 0.69×10^(8)m^(3).This study analyzed water resource supplies and demands from a perspective of ecosystem services,which expanded the scope of the application of ecosystem services and increased the research perspective of water resource evaluation.The results could provide guidance for water resource management such as spatial allocation and structural optimization of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas.

Assessing Water Resources Access of Nouhao Sub-Basin, Burkina Faso

Water resource access in the Nouhao sub-basin, assessed based on the availability of drinking water mobilization facilities, the availability of water for uses and the quality of drinking water, revealed that in 2017 the basin was covered by 1249 modern water point, main drinking water sources. On average, the sub-basin shows a ratio of 271 users per drinking water point. Communal level shows some disparity with Bittou recording the highest number of people per drinking water point, i.e., around 537. Water that can be captured in the entire sub-basin meets only 42% of the total water needs from the three mains uses: irrigation, domestic consumption and livestock. The highest demander among these uses is Irrigation with 75% of the need, i.e., approximately 12,859,995 m3. Water in 33% drinking sources of this sub basin is of poor quality. Arsenic, one of the quality parameters studied, is found in some communes of the sub-basin. 11% of the water points in Bissiga are arsenic polluted making this commune the most arsenic contaminated location. The vulnerability maps deducted from lack of water for uses;lack of drinking water works and poor water quality shows so, the exposure level of the sub-basin’ communes to some potential risks related to low water resources access.

Evaluation of water resources conserved by forests in the Hani rice terraces system of Honghe County,Yunnan,China：an application of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model

The Hani Rice Terraces System, based on gravity-flow irrigation, is one of the Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems(GIAHS) pilot sites selected by FAO in 2010. The water resource plays an important role in the sustainable development of this system. The value of water conserved by the forest is influenced by natural, economic and social factors. In this paper, the water quality, per capita water resources, per capita GDP and population density are chosen as indices to construct an index system for a comprehensive evaluation of water resources value. The weights of these indices are 0.443, 0.31, 0.141 and 0.106 respectively, which are determined by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method. The water resources value has been assessed by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the water resources value in the Hani Rice Terraces System is 4.25 RMB/m^3. Evaluating the value of water resources in the Hani Rice Terraces System can provide a reference for ecological compensation, for raising public awareness of the importance of protecting the system, and ultimately achieving its sustainable development.

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Gansu Section of Yellow River Basin Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

As a basic natural resource and strategic economic resource,the development and utilization of water resources is an important issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood.How to scientifically evaluate the water resources carrying capacity is the premise to improve the regional water resources carrying capacity and ensure the regional water security.The Gansu section of the Yellow River basin is an important water conservation and recharge area.Whether the water resources in this area can ensure the normal operation of the ecosystem and whether it can carry the sustainable development of social economy is the key to realize the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.In this study,from the three dimensions of water consumption per capita,water consumption of 10000 yuan GDP and ecological water use rate,by constructing the evaluation index system and index grading standard of water resources carrying capacity,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin,in order to provide theoretical decision-making basis for the comprehensive development,utilization and planning management of water resources in Gansu section of the Yellow River basin and even the whole basin,and help the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.

Benefits Evaluation of Water Resources Used for Ecosystem in Shiyang River Basin of Gansu Province

Among the numerous inland river basins in the arid northwest China,Shiyang River basin is known for its most serious water shortage that constrains its social and economic developments and for some of the worst ecological and environmental deterioration in China.The research on the value of water resources used for ecosystem is the basis for reasonable allocation of water resources between users of ecosystem and economic system.In this paper the concept of dynamic value for the ecosystem services is proposed.A modified coefficient for the ecosystem service value per unit area is proposed according to the cover degrees of biomes combined with expert consultation.Based on the developmental stage coefficient and scarcity of ecological resources,a dynamic evaluation method is proposed.The theoretical formula and simple calculation formula of the sharing benefits coefficient and benefits per unit ecological water utilization are proposed.The result shows that the benefit of unit ecological water utilization in the lower reach was greater than that in the upper reach in the Shiyang River basin.

Payment for Water-Related Ecosystem Services as a Strategic Watershed Management Approach

Payments for ecosystem services (PES) have been created worldwide to assist watershed management and improve or maintain water quality. Considering their importance, we conducted a holistic review of payment for water-related ecosystem services to understand how this instrument has been applied in watershed management worldwide. First, we identified the watershed management actions considered by the PES programs and the challenges of implementing water-related PES. After we identified the methods and criteria used to define priority areas for water-related PES. Our review considered articles published on the Web of Science from 2011 to 2022. We found 236 articles relating PES to water resources, highlighting the main water conservation strategies: native vegetation conservation, native vegetation restoration, and implementing best agricultural practices. The method most frequent was interview, followed by the use of technologies, document analysis, and hydrological models. Another significant result was that priority areas for receiving PES are mainly riparian zones, areas near or with native vegetation cover, areas with higher erosion potential, steep areas, and areas with socially vulnerable communities. This review was crucial to identify efficient water resource conservation strategies and potential challenges in the implementation and development of PES programs.

Optimization of water-urban-agricultural-ecological land use pattern:A case study of Guanzhong Basin in the southern Loess Plateau of Shaanxi Province,China

Extensive land use will cause many environmental problems.It is an urgent task to improve land use efficiency and optimize land use patterns.In recent years,due to the flow decrease,the Guanzhong Basin in Shaanxi Province is confronted with the problem of insufficient water resources reserve.Based on the Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow Model(GSFLOW),this paper evaluates the response of water resources in the basin to changes in land use patterns,optimizes the land use pattern,improves the ecological and economic benefits,and the efficiency of various spatial development,providing a reference for ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.The research shows that the land use pattern in the Guanzhong Basin should be further optimized.Under the condition of considering ecological and economic development,the percentage change of the optimum area of farmland,forest,grassland,water area,and urban area compared with the current land use area ratio is+2.3,+2.4,-6.1,+0.2,and+1.6,respectively.The economic and ecological value of land increases by14.1%and 3.1%,respectively,and the number of water resources can increase by 2.5%.

Artificial Intelligence Technique in Hydrological Forecasts Supporting for Water Resources Management of a Large River Basin in Vietnam

Hydrological forecasting plays an important role in water resource management, supporting socio-economic development and managing water-related risks in river basins. There are many flow forecasting techniques that have been developed several centuries ago, ranging from physical models, physics-based models, conceptual models, and data-driven models. Recently, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become an advanced technique applied as an effective data-driven model in hydrological forecasting. The main advantage of these models is that they give results with compatible accuracy, and require short computation time, thus increasing forecasting time and reducing human and financial effort. This study evaluates the applicability of machine learning and deep learning in Hanoi water level forecasting where it is controlled for flood management and water supply in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Accordingly, SANN (machine learning algorithm) and LSTM (deep learning algorithm) were tested and compared with a Physics-Based Model (PBM) for the Red River Delta. The results show that SANN and LSTM give high accuracy. The R-squared coefficient is greater than 0.8, the mean squared error (MSE) is less than 20 cm, the correlation coefficient of the forecast hydrology is greater than 0.9 and the level of assurance of the forecast plan ranges from 80% to 90% in both cases. In addition, the calculation time is much reduced compared to the requirement of PBM, which is its limitation in hydrological forecasting for large river basins such as the Red River in Vietnam. Therefore, SANN and LSTM are expected to help increase lead time, thereby supporting water resource management for sustainable development and management of water-related risks in the Red River Delta.

The Relationship between Water Resources Use Efficiency and Scientific and Technological Innovation Level: Case Study of Yangtze River Basin in China

The Yangtze River Basin’s water resource utilization efficiency(WUE)and scientific and technological innovation level(STI)are closely connected,and the comprehension of these relationships will help to improve WUE and promote local economic growth and conservation of water.This study uses 19 provinces and regions along the Yangtze River’s mainstream from 2009 to 2019 as its research objects and uses a Vector Auto Regression(VAR)model to quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of the coupling coordination degree(CCD)between the two subsystems of WUE and STI.The findings show that:(1)Both the WUE and STI in the Yangtze River Basin showed an upward trend during the study period,but the STI effectively lagged behind the WUE;(2)The CCD of the two subsystems generally showed an upward trend,and the CCD of each province was improved to varying degrees,but the majority of regions did not develop a high-quality coordination stage;(3)The CCD of the two systems displayed apparent positive spatial autocorrelation in the spatial correlation pattern,and there were only two types:high-high(H-H)urbanization areas and low-low(L-L)urbanization areas;(4)The STI showed no obvious response to the impact of the WUE,while the WUE responded greatly to the STI,and both of them were highly dependent on themselves.Optimizing their interaction mechanisms should be the primary focus of high-quality development in the basin of the Yangtze River in the future.These results give the government an empirical basis to enhance the WUE and promote regional sustainable development.

Analysis of the Status and Rational Allocation of Water Resources in China in View of the New Era

This paper examines the current status of water resource management and conservation in China,along with strategies to address the water resource crisis.Given the current situation,the paper highlights issues such as incomplete legal mechanisms,limited environmental awareness among enterprises,and insufficient government investment.To ad-dress these challenges,the paper proposes a series of strategies,including improving the ecological environment,enhanc-ing production techniques,strengthening management systems,rationalizing water resource allocation,and implementing water-saving measures in both industrial and agricultural production.These strategies serve to achieve sustainable water resource management,reduce water pollution,and effectively tackle the pressing water resource issues faced in China currently.

Mathematical Model of the Geothermal Water Resources in the South Hot Spring System in Chongqing

The geothermal waters of south hot spring, small hot spring and Qiaokouba in Chongqing, are all part of the south hot spring geothermal water system. Exploitation has caused a decline in the water levels of the south and small hot springs, which have not flowed naturally for 15 years. Now, bores pump geothermal water to the springs. If the water level drops below the elevation of the rivers, river-water will replenish the geothermal water, destroying this resource. It is therefore an urgent task to model the geothermal water system, to enable sustainable development and continued use of the geothermal water in Qiaokouba. A numerical simulation of the geothermal water system was adopted and a quantitative study on the planning scheme was carried out. A mathematical model was set up to simulate the whole geothermal water system, based on data from the research sites. The model determined the maximum sustainable water yield in Qiaokouba and the two hot springs, and the south hot spring and small hot spring sustainable yields are 1 100 m^3/d and 700 m^3/d from 2006 to 2010, 1 300 m^3/d and 1 000 m^3/d from 2011 to 2015, and 1 500 m^3/d and 1 200 m^3/d from 2016 to 2036. The maximum exploitable yield is 3 300 m^3/d from 2006 to 2036 in Qiaokouba. The model supplies a basis to adequately exploit and effectively protect the geothermal water resources, and to continue to develop the geothermal water as a tourist attraction in Chongqing.