Spatiotemporal Modeling of Monthly Precipitation in the Upper Shiyang River Watershed in West Central Gansu,Northwest China

This paper outlines a methodology to estimate monthly precipitation surfaces at 1-kin resolution for the Upper Shiyang River watershed （USRW） in northwest China. Generation of precipitation maps is based on the application of a four-variable genetic algorithm （GA） trained on 10 years of weather and ancillary data, i.e., surface air temperature, relative humidity, Digital Elevation Model-derived estimates of elevation, and time of year collected at 29 weather stations in west-central Gansu and northern Qinghai province. An observed-to-GA predicted data comparison of 10 years of precipitation collected at the 29 weather stations showed that about 84% of the variability in observed values could be explained by the trained GA, including variability in two independent datasets. Point-comparisons of observed and modeled precipitation along an elevation-rainfall gradient demonstrated near-similar spatiotemporal patterns. A precipitation surface for USRW for July, 2005, was developed with the trained GA and input surfaces of surface air temperature and relative humidity generated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor （MODIS） products of land surface temperature. Spatial tendencies in predicted maximum and minimum values of surface air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation within a 2-kin radius circle around selected weather stations were in close agreement with the values measured at the weather stations.

Climate Data Interpolation for Shkumbini WEAP Model

Albania,like almost every country in the world,is continuously facing challenges in terms of the integrated management of water recourses.Limited access to water resources,the degrading quality of the environment,both being closely related to various policies regarding sustainable development of the water resources,are some of the main issues in this field.In conformity with the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive Albania has to develop water management plans for seven main river basins(including Shkumbini River Basin),which have been established in the country according to the Decision No.696,date 30.10.2019.The main goal of this study was the development of an integrated hydrological and water management model to evaluate the climate and development scenarios for the Shkumbini River Basin.The study applies the software WEAP(Water Evaluation and Planning)by SEI(Stockholm Environment Institute)to simulate and analyze a set of hydro-ecological and socio-economical scenarios in the Shkumbini River to identify its fundamental vulnerabilities to climate change between the years 2017-2050.Understanding specific vulnerabilities within a basin allows planners to propose and prioritize potential adaptation measures,which can be further examined with cost-benefit analyses.The spatially-based models can incorporate climatic and land use conditions that determine water supply,and this allows the model to investigate diverse changes within the system to consider the various outcomes of uncertain futures,whether climatic,managerial,infrastructural or demographic.