Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

Research on the Assessment System of Computational Mechanics Courses Based on the TOPSIS Entropy Weight Model

This paper takes the assessment and evaluation of computational mechanics course as the background,and constructs a diversified course evaluation system that is student-centered and integrates both quantitative and qualitative evaluation methods.The system not only pays attention to students’practical operation and theoretical knowledge mastery but also puts special emphasis on the cultivation of students’innovative abilities.In order to realize a comprehensive and objective evaluation,the assessment and evaluation method of the entropy weight model combining TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution)multi-attribute decision analysis and entropy weight theory is adopted,and its validity and practicability are verified through example analysis.This method can not only comprehensively and objectively evaluate students’learning outcomes,but also provide a scientific decision-making basis for curriculum teaching reform.The implementation of this diversified course evaluation system can better reflect the comprehensive ability of students and promote the continuous improvement of teaching quality.

Ensemble Based Temporal Weighting and Pareto Ranking (ETP) Model for Effective Root Cause Analysis

Root-cause identification plays a vital role in business decision making by providing effective future directions for the organizations.Aspect extraction and sentiment extraction plays a vital role in identifying the rootcauses.This paper proposes the Ensemble based temporal weighting and pareto ranking(ETP)model for Root-cause identification.Aspect extraction is performed based on rules and is followed by opinion identification using the proposed boosted ensemble model.The obtained aspects are validated and ranked using the proposed aspect weighing scheme.Pareto-rule based aspect selection is performed as the final selection mechanism and the results are presented for business decision making.Experiments were performed with the standard five product benchmark dataset.Performances on all five product reviews indicate the effective performance of the proposed model.Comparisons are performed using three standard state-of-the-art models and effectiveness is measured in terms of F-Measure and Detection rates.The results indicate improved performances exhibited by the proposed model with an increase in F-Measure levels at 1%–15%and detection rates at 4%–24%compared to the state-of-the-art models.

An Intelligent Hazardous Waste Detection and Classification Model Using Ensemble Learning Techniques

Proper waste management models using recent technologies like computer vision,machine learning(ML),and deep learning(DL)are needed to effectively handle the massive quantity of increasing waste.Therefore,waste classification becomes a crucial topic which helps to categorize waste into hazardous or non-hazardous ones and thereby assist in the decision making of the waste management process.This study concentrates on the design of hazardous waste detection and classification using ensemble learning(HWDC-EL)technique to reduce toxicity and improve human health.The goal of the HWDC-EL technique is to detect the multiple classes of wastes,particularly hazardous and non-hazardous wastes.The HWDC-EL technique involves the ensemble of three feature extractors using Model Averaging technique namely discrete local binary patterns(DLBP),EfficientNet,and DenseNet121.In addition,the flower pollination algorithm(FPA)based hyperparameter optimizers are used to optimally adjust the parameters involved in the EfficientNet and DenseNet121 models.Moreover,a weighted voting-based ensemble classifier is derived using three machine learning algorithms namely support vector machine(SVM),extreme learning machine(ELM),and gradient boosting tree(GBT).The performance of the HWDC-EL technique is tested using a benchmark Garbage dataset and it obtains a maximum accuracy of 98.85%.

GIS-based Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Hazard Zoning Using Contributing Weight Model

Earthquake-triggered landslides have aroused widespread attention because of their tremendous ability to harm people's lives and properties.The best way to avoid and mitigate their damage is to develop landslide hazard maps and make them available to the public in advance of an earthquake.Future construction can then be built according to the level of hazard and existing structures can be retrofit as necessary.During recent years various approaches have been made to develop landslide hazard maps using statistical analysis or physical models.However,these methods have limitations.This study introduces a new GIS-based approach,using the contributing weight model,to evaluate the hazard of seismically-induced landslides.In this study,the city and surrounding area of Dujiangyan was selected as the research area because of its moderate-high seismic activity.The parameters incorporated into the model that related to the probability of landslide occurrence were:slope gradient,slope aspect,geomorphology,lithology,base level,surface roughness,earthquake intensity,fault proximity,drainage proximity,and road proximity.The parameters were converted into raster data format with a resolution of 25×25m2 pixels.Analysis of the GIS correlations shows that the highest earthquake-induced landslide hazard areas are mainly in the hills and in some of the moderately steep mountainous areas of central Dujiangyan.The highest hazard zone covers an area of 11.1% of the study area,and the density distribution of seismically-induced landslides was 3.025/km2 from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.The moderately hazardous areas are mainly distributed within the moderately steep mountainous regions of the northern and southeastern parts of the study area and the hills of the northeastern part;covering 32.0% of the study area and with a density distribution of 2.123/km2 resulting from the Wenchuan earthquake.The lowest hazard areas are mainly distributed in the topographically flat plain in the northeastern part and some of the relatively gently slopes in the moderately steep mountainous areas of the northern part of Dujiangyan and the surrounding area.The lowest hazard areas cover 56.9% of the study area and exhibited landslide densities of 0.941/km2 and less from the Wenchuan earthquake.The quality of the hazard map was validated using a comparison with the distribution of landslides that were cataloged as occurring from the Wenchuan earthquake.43.1% of the study area consists of high and moderate hazardous zones,and these regions include 83.5% of landslides caused by the Wenchuan earthquake.The successful analysis shows that the contributing weight model can be effective for earthquake-triggered landslide hazard appraisal.The model's results can provide the basis for risk management and regional planning is.

Change in Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Weighted CMIP6 Models

Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)is important to local and downstream ecosystems.Based on a weighting method considering model skill and independence,changes in the TP precipitation for near-term(2021-40),mid-term(2041-60)and long-term(2081-2100)under shared socio-economic pathways(SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5)are projected with 27 models from the latest Sixth Phase of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project.The annual mean precipitation is projected to increase by 7.4%-21.6%under five SSPs with a stronger change in the northern TP by the end of the 21st century relative to the present climatology.Changes in the TP precipitation at seasonal scales show a similar moistening trend to that of annual mean precipitation,except for the drying trend in winter precipitation along the southern edges of the TP.Weighting generally suggests a slightly stronger increase in TP precipitation with reduced model uncertainty compared to equally-weighted projections.The effect of weighting exhibits spatial and seasonal differences.Seasonally,weighting leads to a prevailing enhancement of increase in spring precipitation over the TP.Spatially,the influence of weighting is more remarkable over the northwestern TP regarding the annual,summer and autumn precipitation.Differences between weighted and original MMEs can give us more confidence in a stronger increase in precipitation over the TP,especially for the season of spring and the region of the northwestern TP,which requires additional attention in decision making.

Entropy weight coefficient model and its application in evaluation of groundwater vulnerability of the Sanjiang Plain

The research of groundwater vulnerability is the basic work to protect the groundwater. For utilizing groundwater resource continuably, groundwater vulnerability evaluation is necessary. Useful reference to protect, exploit and utilize on groundwater resource are provided rationally. According to the real condition of Sanjiang Plain, the indexes system is established based on the traditional DRASTIC model. The new system includes the following seven indexes： Depth of Water, Net Recharge, Aquifer Media, Soil Media, Conductivity of the Aquifer, Land Utilizing Ratio and Populace Density. The related analysis appears that the system is rather reasonable. Because traditional methods, such as analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics theory, can＇t be avoided human interference in selection of weights, they could lead to an imprecise result. In order to evaluate the groundwater vulnerability reasonably, entropy weight coefficient method is applied for the first time, which provides a new way to groundwater vulnerability evaluation. The method is a model whose weights are insured by the calculation process, so the artificial disturb can be avoided. It has been used to evaluate the groundwater vulnerability in Sanjiang Plain. The satisfied result is acquired. Comparably, the same result is acquired by the other method named projection pursuit evaluation based on real-coded accelerating genetic algorithm. It shows that entropy weight coefficient method is applicable on groundwater vulnerability evaluation. The evaluation result can provide reference on the decision-making departments.

Investigation of the different weight models in Kalman filter:A case study of GNSS monitoring results

During geodetic monitoring with GNSS technology one of important steps is the correct processing and analysis of the measured displacements. We used the processing method of Kalman filter smoothing algorithm, which allows to evaluate not only displacements, but also the speed, acceleration, and other characteristics of the deformation model. One of the important issues is the calculation of the obser- vations weight matrix in the Kalman filter. Recurrence algorithm of Kalman filtering can calculate and specify the weights during processing. However, the weights obtained in such way do not always exactly correspond to the actual observation accuracy. We established the observations weights based on the accuracy of baseline measurements. In the presented study, we offered and investigated different models of establishing the accuracy of the baselines. The offered models and the processing of the measured displacements were tested on an experimentally geodetic GNSS network. The research results show that despite of different weight models, changing weights up to 2 times do not change Kalman filtering ac- curacy extremely. The significant improvements for Kalman filtering accuracy for baselines shorter than 10 km were not got. Therefore, for typical GNSS monitoring networks with baseline range 10-15 km, we recommend to use any kind of models. The compulsory condition for getting correct and reliable results is checking results on blunders. For baselines, which are longer than 15 km we propose to use weight model which include baseline standard deviation from network adjustment and corrections for baseline length and its accuracy.

Impact of Accessibility on Housing Prices in Dalian City of China Based on a Geographically Weighted Regression Model

This paper studies the relationship between accessibility and housing prices in Dalian by using an improved geographically weighted regression model and house prices, traffic, remote sensing images, etc. Multi-source data improves the accuracy of the spatial differentiation that reflects the impact of traffic accessibility on house prices. The results are as follows: first, the average house price is 12 436 yuan(RMB)/m^2, and reveals a declining trend from coastal areas to inland areas. The exception was Guilin Street, which demonstrates a local peak of house prices that decreases from the center of the street to its periphery. Second, the accessibility value is 33 minutes on average, excluding northern and eastern fringe areas, which was over 50 minutes. Third, the significant spatial correlation coefficient between accessibility and house prices is 0.423, and the coefficient increases in the southeastern direction. The strongest impact of accessibility on house prices is in the southeastern coast, and can be seen in the Lehua, Yingke, and Hushan communities, while the weakest impact is in the northwestern fringe, and can be seen in the Yingchengzi, Xixiaomo, and Daheishi community areas.

Modeling of Spatial Distributions of Farmland Density and Its Temporal Change Using Geographically Weighted Regression Model

This study used spatial autoregression(SAR)model and geographically weighted regression(GWR)model to model the spatial patterns of farmland density and its temporal change in Gucheng County,Hubei Province,China in 1999 and 2009,and discussed the difference between global and local spatial autocorrelations in terms of spatial heterogeneity and non-stationarity.Results showed that strong spatial positive correlations existed in the spatial distributions of farmland density,its temporal change and the driving factors,and the coefficients of spatial autocorrelations decreased as the spatial lag distance increased.SAR models revealed the global spatial relations between dependent and independent variables,while the GWR model showed the spatially varying fitting degree and local weighting coefficients of driving factors and farmland indices(i.e.,farmland density and temporal change).The GWR model has smooth process when constructing the farmland spatial model.The coefficients of GWR model can show the accurate influence degrees of different driving factors on the farmland at different geographical locations.The performance indices of GWR model showed that GWR model produced more accurate simulation results than other models at different times,and the improvement precision of GWR model was obvious.The global and local farmland models used in this study showed different characteristics in the spatial distributions of farmland indices at different scales,which may provide the theoretical basis for farmland protection from the influence of different driving factors.

Association between Macroscopic-factors and Identified HIV/AIDS Cases among Injecting Drug Users: An Analysis Using Geographically Weighted Regression Model

Drug use （DU）, particularly injecting drug use （IDU） has been the main route of transmission and spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus （HIV）/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome （AIDSJ among injecting drug users （IDUs）[1]. Previous studies have proven that needles or cottons sharing during drug injection were major risk factors for HIV/AIDS transmission at the personal level[z4]. Being a social behavioral issue, HIV/AIDS related risk factors should be far beyond the personal level. Therefore, studies on HIV/AIDS related risk factors should focus not only on the individual factors, but also on the association between HIV/AIDS cases and macroscopic-factors, such as economic status, transportation, health care services, etc[1]. The impact of the macroscopic-factors on HIV/AIDS status might be either positive or negative, which are potentially reflected in promoting, delaying or detecting HIV/AIDS epidemics.

Evaluating the Amount of Erodability and Sedimentation by Comparing Sediment Weight Model and PSIAC Experimental Model (Case Study: Lali Water Catchment, Khuzestan, Iran)

The upstream water catchments are the main source providing sediments in rivers and sedimentary basins. The balance between the erosion phenomenon and the amount of sediment entering into the basin relies on the geometrical specifications and the morphology of the river along the water catchment direction and the amount and type of the sediments. The sedimentary feed of rivers and basins are changed for the sake of natural factors or human disturbances. The river and basin react against this change in that their shape, morphology, plan and profile get changed due to the increase or decrease of the input sediment into the basin. It is essential to know the sediment amount produced by erodability and sedimentation of upstream basins and effects of projects and also to evaluate the amount of sedimentary load in base studies, civil projects, optimizing rivers and dam construction studies specially calculating the amount of sediment amount entering into the dams’ reservoirs in order to take engineering decisions and related alternatives. Sediment Weight Model and PSIAC Experimental Model are recognized as two common methods calculating the amount of the produced sediment caused by erosion applied in this research. Holistically, these methods have been used and compared. Although the results are almost close to one another, more sediment load has been produced in PSIAC method. As more affective parameters are used to cause erosion and produce sediment in PSIAC experimental model, it is recommended to refer to the results of this method because they are closer to reality.

Research and application of mineral resources assessment by weights of evidence model based on SIG

Geological data are usually of the characteristics of multi-source, large amount and multi-scale. The construction of Spatial Information Grid overcomes the shortages of personal computers when dealing with geological data. The authors introduce the definition, architecture and flow of mineral resources assessment by weights of evidence model based on Spatial Information Grid (SIG). Meanwhile, a case study on the prediction of copper mineral occurrence in the Middle-Lower Yangtze metallogenic belt is given. The results show that mineral resources assessement based on SIG is an effective new method which provides a way of sharing and integrating distributed geospatial information and improves the efficiency greatly.

A Feature Weighted Mixed Naive Bayes Model for Monitoring Anomalies in the Fan System of a Thermal Power Plant

With the increasing intelligence and integration,a great number of two-valued variables(generally stored in the form of 0 or 1)often exist in large-scale industrial processes.However,these variables cannot be effectively handled by traditional monitoring methods such as linear discriminant analysis(LDA),principal component analysis(PCA)and partial least square(PLS)analysis.Recently,a mixed hidden naive Bayesian model(MHNBM)is developed for the first time to utilize both two-valued and continuous variables for abnormality monitoring.Although the MHNBM is effective,it still has some shortcomings that need to be improved.For the MHNBM,the variables with greater correlation to other variables have greater weights,which can not guarantee greater weights are assigned to the more discriminating variables.In addition,the conditional P(x j|x j′,y=k)probability must be computed based on historical data.When the training data is scarce,the conditional probability between continuous variables tends to be uniformly distributed,which affects the performance of MHNBM.Here a novel feature weighted mixed naive Bayes model(FWMNBM)is developed to overcome the above shortcomings.For the FWMNBM,the variables that are more correlated to the class have greater weights,which makes the more discriminating variables contribute more to the model.At the same time,FWMNBM does not have to calculate the conditional probability between variables,thus it is less restricted by the number of training data samples.Compared with the MHNBM,the FWMNBM has better performance,and its effectiveness is validated through numerical cases of a simulation example and a practical case of the Zhoushan thermal power plant(ZTPP),China.

Establishment and analysis of global gridded Tm-Ts relationship model

In ground-based GPS meteorology, Tm is a key parameter to calculate the conversion factor that can convert the zenith wet delay（ZWD） to precipitable water vapor（PWV）. It is generally acknowledged that Tm is in an approximate linear relationship with surface temperature Ts, and the relationship presents regional variation. This paper employed sliding average method to calculate correlation coefficients and linear regression coefficients between Tm and Ts at every 2°× 2.5° grid point using Ts data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts（ECMWF） and Tm data from ＂GGOS Atmosphere＂, yielding the grid and bilinear interpolation-based Tm Grid model. Tested by Tm and Ts grid data, Constellation Observation System of Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate（COSMIC） data and radiosonde data, the Tm Grid model shows a higher accuracy relative to the Bevis Tm-Ts relationship which is widely used nowadays. The Tm Grid model will be of certain practical value in high-precision PWV calculation.

Optimization Ensemble Weights Model for Wind Forecasting System

Effective technology for wind direction forecasting can be realized using the recent advances in machine learning.Consequently,the stability and safety of power systems are expected to be significantly improved.However,the unstable and unpredictable qualities of the wind predict the wind direction a challenging problem.This paper proposes a practical forecasting approach based on the weighted ensemble of machine learning models.This weighted ensemble is optimized using a whale optimization algorithm guided by particle swarm optimization(PSO-Guided WOA).The proposed optimized weighted ensemble predicts the wind direction given a set of input features.The conducted experiments employed the wind power forecasting dataset,freely available on Kaggle and developed to predict the regular power generation at seven wind farms over forty-eight hours.The recorded results of the conducted experiments emphasize the effectiveness of the proposed ensemble in achieving accurate predictions of the wind direction.In addition,a comparison is established between the proposed optimized ensemble and other competing optimized ensembles to prove its superiority.Moreover,statistical analysis using one-way analysis of variance(ANOVA)and Wilcoxon’s rank-sum are provided based on the recorded results to confirm the excellent accuracy achieved by the proposed optimized weighted ensemble.

An effective communication and computation model based on a hybridgraph-deeplearning approach for SIoT

Social Edge Service(SES)is an emerging mechanism in the Social Internet of Things(SIoT)orchestration for effective user-centric reliable communication and computation.The services are affected by active and/or passive attacks such as replay attacks,message tampering because of sharing the same spectrum,as well as inadequate trust measurement methods among intelligent devices(roadside units,mobile edge devices,servers)during computing and content-sharing.These issues lead to computation and communication overhead of servers and computation nodes.To address this issue,we propose the HybridgrAph-Deep-learning(HAD)approach in two stages for secure communication and computation.First,the Adaptive Trust Weight(ATW)model with relation-based feedback fusion analysis to estimate the fitness-priority of every node based on directed graph theory to detect malicious nodes and reduce computation and communication overhead.Second,a Quotient User-centric Coeval-Learning(QUCL)mechanism to formulate secure channel selection,and Nash equilibrium method for optimizing the communication to share data over edge devices.The simulation results confirm that our proposed approach has achieved effective communication and computation performance,and enhanced Social Edge Services(SES)reliability than state-of-the-art approaches.

Application of fuzzy optimization model in the evaluationof urban flood-waterloggedvulnerabilitybased on the synthetic weight ofgame theory

The evaluation of urban flood-waterlogged vulnerability is very important to the safety of urban flood control. In this paper, the evaluation of consolidated index is used. Respectively, AHP and entropy method calculate the subjective and objective weight of the evaluation indicators, and combine them by game theory. So we can obtain synthetic weight based on objective and subjective weights. The evaluation of urban flood-waterlogged vulnerability as target layer, a single variable multi-objective fuzzy optimization model is established. We use the model to evaluate flood-waterlogged vulnerability of 13 prefecture-level city in Hunan, and compare it with other evaluation method. The results show that the evaluation method has certain adaptability and reliability, and it＇ s helpfid to the construction planning of urban flood control.

Temporal and spatial responses of ecological resilience to climate change and human activities in the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, China

In the Anthropocene era,human activities have become increasingly complex and diversified.The natural ecosystems need higher ecological resilience to ensure regional sustainable development due to rapid urbanization and industrialization as well as other intensified human activities,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.In the study,we chose the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains(EBNSTM)in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China as a case study.By collecting geographic data and statistical data from 2010 and 2020,we constructed an ecological resilience assessment model based on the ecosystem habitat quality(EHQ),ecosystem landscape stability(ELS),and ecosystem service value(ESV).Further,we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of ecological resilience in the EBNSTM from 2010 to 2020 by spatial autocorrelation analysis,and explored its responses to climate change and human activities using the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model.The results showed that the ecological resilience of the EBNSTM was at a low level and increased from 0.2732 to 0.2773 during 2010–2020.The spatial autocorrelation analysis of ecological resilience exhibited a spatial heterogeneity characteristic of"high in the western region and low in the eastern region",and the spatial clustering trend was enhanced during the study period.Desert,Gobi and rapidly urbanized areas showed low level of ecological resilience,and oasis and mountain areas exhibited high level of ecological resilience.Climate factors had an important impact on ecological resilience.Specifically,average annual temperature and annual precipitation were the key climate factors that improved ecological resilience,while average annual evapotranspiration was the main factor that blocked ecological resilience.Among the human activity factors,the distance from the main road showed a negative correlation with ecological resilience.Both night light index and PM2.5 concentration were negatively correlated with ecological resilience in the areas with better ecological conditions,whereas in the areas with poorer ecological conditions,the correlations were positive.The research findings could provide a scientific reference for protecting the ecological environment and promoting the harmony and stability of the human-land relationship in arid and semi-arid areas.

The Impact of Climate Change on Country’s Fragility Assessment

The damage costs of climate change have the potential to cause the breakdown of governmental structures. The paper focuses on how climate change impacts the state’s fragility and how the government should intervene. The paper chooses temperature and rainfall as climate change indicators and establishes a comprehensive evaluating model. The weighting method of the model is determined by combining coefficient of variation method and improved entropy method. The model will output the objective comprehensive evaluation of state’s fragility. The state’s fragilities are quantitatively divided into three levels consisting of the fragile, the vulnerable and the stable in the model. For validation, this paper selects six representative countries and analyzes the degree and the approach of climate change’s impacts on state’s fragility. The fragile values by the model are consistent with the situation in these countries. The state’s fragilities are also predicted by back propagation (BP) neural network. This paper analyzes the impacts of human interventions on improving state’s fragility. The results indicate that the paper could provide reasonable suggestions for the government in the aspects of when and how to take what kind of interventions to improve state’s fragility.