Predecessor Rain Events in the Yangtze River Delta Region Associated with South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO)Tropical Cyclones

Predecessor rain events(PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region associated with the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO) tropical cyclones(TCs) are investigated during the period from 2010 to 2019.Results indicate that approximately 10% of TCs making landfall in China produce PREs over the YRD region;however,they are seldom forecasted. PREs often occur over the YRD region when TCs begin to be active in the SCS-WNPO with westward paths, whilst the cold air is still existing or beginning to be present. PREs are more likely to peak in June and September. The distances between the PRE centers and the parent TC range from 900 to 1700 km. The median value of rain amounts and the median lifetime of PREs is approximately 200 mm and 24 h, respectively. Composite results suggest that PREs form in the equatorward jet-entrance region of the upper-level westerly jet(WJ), where a 925-hPa equivalent potential temperature ridge is located east of a 500-hPa trough. Deep moisture is transported from the TC vicinity to the remote PREs region. The ascent of this deep moist air in front of the 500-hPa trough and frontogenesis beneath the equatorward entrance region of the WJ is advantageous for the occurrence of PREs in the YRD region. The upper-level WJ may be affected by the subtropical high and westerly trough in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and the occurrence of PREs may favor the maintenance of the upper-level WJ. The upper-level outflow of TCs in the SCS plays a secondary role.

Analysis of Formation Mechanism of Two Successive Heavy Rainfall Processes on the Edge of the Subtropical High

Based on sounding and ground observation data,GPS/MET and FY-2 E satellite data,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data（ 1°× 1°）,the formation mechanisms of two successive heavy rainfall processes on the edge of the subtropical high were analyzed. The results showed that the two heavy rainfall processes were caused by weak westerly troughs on the edge of the subtropical high at 500 h Pa,and there was strong southwest jet stream at 850-700 h Pa. As the low-level southwest jet stream intensified and moved northwards,heavy rainfall began. When the jet stream weakened,heavy rainfall ended. The heavy rainfall areas had good consistency with the high-value areas of CAPE,the high-value tongue of low-level water vapor flux,water vapor convergence center and warm advection center. Water vapor monitoring by GPS/MET had certain denotative meaning to the short-term prediction of heavy rainfall. The minimum TBB of convective cloud clusters was between-62 and-78 ℃,and the corresponding hourly maximum precipitation was 40-90 mm. In the heavy rainfall process,mesoscale vortexes occurred at 850 h Pa and below,but the scale was small,with weak low pressure but significant cyclonic circulation. The most intense rainfall was generated at the center of warm advection in the southeast of the vortex center at 925 h Pa. In the first heavy rainfall process,the mesoscale vortexes moved less,while strong rainfall was induced by strong upward movement in the southeast of the vortexes. In the second heavy rainfall process,low-level cold air invaded from the northwest into the vortexes to form cyclones and moved northeastwards. Heavy rainfall happened in the warm zone in front of cold front,and convective instability energy was high. Rainfall intensity was high,and rainfall range was large.

Comparison of the Multi-Scale Features in Two Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River

Two persistent heavy rainfall（PHR） events in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River（MLYR）occurring in June 1982 and 1998 are studied in this paper.Though both events happened in the Meiyu season,their large-scale background and developing processes were quite different.During the PHR event in 1982,the Lake Baikal area was occupied by a strong westerly trough and the western Pacific subtropical high（WPSH） was stronger and more westward-extending than the normal years.Under such a condition,the cold dry air and warm moist air were continuously transported to the MLYR and favored the PHR there.For the event in 1998,the WPSH was similar to that in 1982,while the westerly trough in the Lake Baikal area was comparatively weak and a shortwave trough situating in East China contributed to advect cold dry air to the MLYR.It is found that the high-latitude trough was closely related to the 1030-day low-frequency oscillation while the anomaly of WPSH was linked with the combined effect of both30 60- and 10 30-day low-frequency oscillations in the PHR event in 1982.By contrast,the 60-day low-pass perturbation demonstrated positive impact on the westward extension of WPSH and development of the Baikal trough while the 30 60-day oscillation played a role in strengthening the shortwave trough in East China and the WPSH in the case of 1998.Though the low-latitude 30 60-day oscillations contributed to the intensification and westward extension of the WPSH in both PHR events,their evolution exhibited evident differences.In the 1982 case,the 30 60-day anomalies originated from the western Indian Ocean were much more like the Madden Julian Oscillation,while its counterpart in the 1998 case was much more similar to the first mode of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation.