EVOLUTION LAW OF DRYNESS AND WETNESS IN KUNMING IN RECENT 300 YEARS

Using indexes of dryness and wetness in historical record over the recent recent years and rainfall data over the tatest century, the work involves itself with the study of climatological evolution of dryness and wetness. periodic variations of climate and interannual laws of variation. The discussion also covers the subjects of effects of El Nino. sunspot, predictors of general circulation on climatic variation of dryness and wetness. There arc main conclusions as follows: (1) The main cyclic variations of climate are 40 and 11 years in Kunming. the former being subject to that of El Nino and the latter to that of sunspots. They are two principal factors for periodic variations of dryness and wetness in Kunming. (2) A close relationship exists between interannual variations and general circulation factors for Kunming. The comprehensive influence as imposed by ENSO and allocations of W.C.E. patterns of circulation in the westerly are ma.tor weather and climate causes for the interannual variations of precipitation in Kunming.

FEATURES OF DRYNESS AND WETNESS IN GUANGDONG PROVINCEOVER THE PAST FOUR DECADES

Precipitation data from 86 observing Stations for the past four decades (from the first operational use to 1994) are used to study and discuss the character of annually mean distribution in Guangdong. Grades of dryness and wetness on a year-to-year basis are determined and preliminary features of dryness and wetness are discussed for the whole of the province and individual regions according to a 5-grade standard of division. The result has shown that there is on an average a rainfall of 1748 mm per year across the province, with four major centers of maxima (of annual rainfall over 2000 mm) at Enping, Qingyuan, Haifeng and Longmen. For the mean across the province, the years 1959. 1 961. 1973.1975, 1991 are anomalously wet and the years 1956, 1963, 1977 and 1991 are anomalously dry. of them, 1973 is the unusually wet year (with the absolute value of precipitation anomaly over twice as large as the standard deviation) and 1956 and 1963 are the usual dry years. For the occurrence frequency of unusually wetness and dryness over individual river valleys in the province, there are more years of dryness in the valleys of the Xijiang and Dongjiang Rivers. More years of wetness in that of the Jianjiang River, and only years of wetness instead of years of dryness in the valleys of Beijiang and Hanjiang Rivers.

Observed dryness and wetness variability in Shanghai during 1873-2005

Dryness and wetness variations on different time scales in Shanghai were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index （SPI） based on monthly precipitation data for 1873-2005. The SPI on scales of 3, 6, 12 and 24 months has been calculated. The SPI on 3, 6, 12 and 24 months present 4 wet periods prevailed during 1873-1885, 1904-1923, 1938-1960 and 1983-2005, and 3 dry episodes during 1886-1903, 1924-1937 and 1961-1982. Significant periods of higher wavelet power in the SPI-24 months occurred on the time scales of 2-7-year band in around 1880-1890, 1910-1950 and 1970-1990, and at 8-15-year band in 1920-1960 and 1965-2000 respectively. Periodicities in the SOl and ENSO indices are similar to those in SPI-24 months with little difference, namely, in the SPI-24 months, there are significant periods at the 2-7- and 8-15-year bands during 1930-1940. The periodicity components in individual SPI-24 months, SOl and ENSO indices are more complicated, showing the wetness and dryness variability in Shanghai is controlled by more than one physical factors. The research results indicate that the Shanghai area has experienced dryness and wetness variability on different time scales during the past 133 years.

Analysis on Variation of Rainfall Trend and Agriculture Dryness in Benxi City of Liaoning Province

Linear regression,climate trend rate,integral humidity indicator and dry-wet index were adopted to analyze the precipitation change,drought or waterlogging frequency and occurrence period in Benxi of Liaoning.The results showed that in recent 55 years,the tendency rate of annual precipitation in Benxi was-30.749 mm/10 a,reducing 165 mm in trend;the precipitation tendency rate during the growing season of plants was-31.371/10 a,reducing 173 mm in trend.The climate type was changed from light flood 20 a ago to wet type.The satisfaction of agriculture-required water was above 150% and annual average precipitation surplus was 290 mm.Benxi was hit by the medium floods to heavy floods in 10 years,about once in five years.The occurrence period of mild drought was 5 a,about once in ten years.The drought in spring below the medium degree occurred twice in a decade while the waterlogging above the medium degree occurred once in a decade.The waterlogging in summer above the medium degree occurred once in two years.The waterlogging in autumn above the medium degree occurred twice in a decade while the drought below the medium degree occurred four times in a decade.The occurrence frequency of heavy waterlogging in July and August was 54.5%.May and September were the period of time with a strikingly higher prevalence in drought.

Changes in terrestrial surface dry and wet conditions on the Loess Plateau(China) during the last half century

This paper, using a revised Penman-Monteith model, computed the terrestrial surface humidity index of the Loess Plateau （China） based on climatic factors of monthly mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed and sunshine duration observed on the plateau from 1961 to 2008. The temporal-spatial distribution, anomaly distribution and sub-regional temporal variations of the terrestrial surface dry and wet conditions were analyzed as well. The results showed a decreasing trend in the annual average surface humidity from the southeast to the northwest in the research anna. Over the period of 1961-2008, an aridification tendency appeared sharply in the central interior region of the Loess Plateau, and less sharply in the middle part of the region. The border region showed the weakest tendency ol; aridification. It is clear that aridification diffused in all directions from the interior region. The spatial anomaly distribution of the terrestrial surface dry and wet conditions on the Loess Plateau can be divided into three key areas： the southern, western and eastern regions. The terrestrial annual humidity index displayed a significantly descending trend and showed remarkable abrupt changes from wet to dry in the years 1967, 1977 and 1979. In the above mentioned three key areas for dry and wet conditions, the terrestrial annual humidity index exhibited a fluctuation period of 3-4 years, while in the southern region, a fluctuation period of 7-8 years existed at the same time.

The Warming and Wetting Ecological Environment Changes over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Driving Effect of the Asian Summer Monsoon

The impact of warming and wetting on the ecological environment of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(TP)under the background of climate change has been a concern of the global scientific community.In this paper,the optimized interpolation variational correction approach is adopted for the analysis of monthly high-resolution satellite precipitation products and observations from meteorological stations during the past 20 years.As a result,the corrected precipitation products can not only supplement the“blank area”of precipitation observation stations on the TP,but also improve the accuracy of the original satellite precipitation products.The precipitation over the TP shows different spatial changes in the vegetation growing season,known as the time from May to September.The precipitation in the vegetation growing season and leaf area index(LAI)in the following month show a similar change pattern,indicating a“one-month lag”response of LAI to precipitation on the TP.Further analysis illustrates the influence of water vapor transport driven by the Asian summer monsoon.Water vapor derived from trans-equatorial air flows across the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea is strengthened,leading to the increase of precipitation in the central and northern TP,where the trend of warming and wetting and the increase of vegetation tend to be more obvious.By contrast,as a result of the weakening trend of water vapor transport in the middle and low levels in southern TP,the precipitation decreases,and the LAI shows a downtrend,which inhibits the warming and wetting ecological environment in this area.

南水北调西线工程水源区和受水区降水变化及丰枯遭遇特征分析

基于规划中的南水北调西线工程区域内274个国家气象站1961—2022年逐日降水资料,分析了西线工程水源区和受水区年和四季降水量的时空分布特征,以及两区降水的丰枯遭遇特征。结果表明:近62年来,南水北调西线工程水源区年降水量总体呈增多趋势,而受水区年降水量没有明显变化趋势;夏、冬季水源区和受水区降水量均增多,春、秋季水源区降水量增多而受水区降水量减少;年和春、夏、秋季水源区枯水频率均低于受水区枯水频率,并且水源区枯水频率呈减少趋势,而丰水频率呈增加趋势;水源区和受水区年和四季降水丰枯异步频率普遍在60%以上,远大于丰枯同步频率,有利调水的5种丰枯遭遇在年和春、夏、秋季发生频率均超过50%。总体而言,南水北调西线工程水源区和受水区的降水具有较强的丰枯补偿性,且1971年以来有利调水发生频次呈增加趋势,理论上存在保证供水的可能性。但水源区出现连续枯水年的频次较多。因此,在南水北调西线工程规划设计和运行调度时需充分考虑水源区和受水区降水的变化。

湖北省极端干湿事件时空变化规律及对水稻长势的影响

气候变暖背景下,极端干旱、极端湿润事件频发对作物生长带来极大威胁,研究极端干湿事件(干旱/湿润)对农业生产的影响对于地区粮食安全和水资源管理有重要意义。以湖北省水稻种植区为研究区,利用归一化植被指数(NDVI)刻画水稻生长状况,基于1990—2020年32个气象站的气象资料和标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI),分析极端干湿事件时空变化规律,基于2000—2020年NDVI分析水稻长势变化及其对极端干湿事件的响应。结果表明:1990—1999年极端干旱事件7次,2000—2009年4次,2010—2020年后2次,频次有所减少;极端湿润事件1990—1999年5次,2000—2009年2次,2010—2020年5次,频次无明显变化但面积有所增加;重要生长期(6—8月份)总NDVI呈现出显著增加趋势(p=0.012),增速为0.0078/a,生长情况变化呈良好态势;整体上极端干旱、极端湿润事件对水稻长势都有负效应,NDVI与SPEI相关系数最高分别达0.418、-0.358。为应对极端干湿事件,相关部门应加强水稻重要生长期内的气象监测,提高抗旱涝能力,确保农业高产稳产。

1986-2018年黄土丘陵区典型小流域不同水文年水沙变化

[目的]探讨黄土丘陵区罗玉沟典型小流域水沙变化趋势以及不同水文年径流输沙对水土流失治理的响应差异,量化降水和人类活动对流域水沙影响的相对贡献,以期为黄土丘陵第三副区流域水土流失治理和水资源管理提供参考。[方法]基于罗玉沟流域1986—2018年的降雨、径流、输沙等数据,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、累积距平法及双累积曲线法分析流域水沙变化趋势及驱动因素。[结果]1986—2018年罗玉沟流域河流由常流河转变为季节性河流,干河日数显著上升(p<0.01),2000年以来干河日数多在300 d以上;同期,罗玉沟流域径流输沙显著下降(p<0.05),与基准期1986—1993年相比,1994—2007年减水减沙率分别为61.9%,44.3%,2008—2018年径流输沙分别减少67.5%,76.4%;在2008—2018年平水年和枯水年间罗玉沟流域输沙模数分别为(1 080.0±107.5) t/km^(2),(167.8±111.4) t/km^(2),而在暴雨频发丰水年,输沙模数仍接近4 000 t/km^(2);流域产流产沙能力降低,水沙关系发生改变,相同径流条件下输沙量减少,即流域径流含沙量水平降低,开始变清;相比降雨变化而言,人类活动是流域水沙变化的主导因素,1994—2007年人类活动对减水减沙的贡献率分别为83.3%和79.5%,而2008—2018年人类活动的贡献率分别为91.8%,94.4%,表明流域水沙变化受人类活动影响越来越大,其中,坡改梯及退耕还林还草工程是主要影响因素。[结论]因沟道治理工程建设不足,罗玉沟流域在丰水年因沟道重力侵蚀导致流域输沙仍然剧烈,因此,需要加强沟道治理进一步减少流域水土流失。

Relationship and its instability of ENSO--Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells

Monthly data of Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1951 to 2000 are calculated using historical precipitation and temperature data for Chinese 160 stations. Temporal and spatial pat-terns of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature, which is similar to the linear PDSI trend during 1951―2000 calculated using all monthly data. The EOF analysis also reveals that the leading mode correlates significantly with ENSO events in time and space. The ENSO EOF shows that during the typical warm phase of ENSO, surface conditions are drier in most regions of China, especially North China, but wetter than normal in the southern regions of Changjiang River, and Northwest China. During the typical cold phase of ENSO, these anomalies reverse sign. From 1951 to 2000, there are large multi-year to decadal variations in droughts and wet spells over China, which are all closely related to strong El Nio events. In other words, when one strong El Nio event happens, there is a possible big variability in droughts and wet spells over China on the multi-year or decadal scale. Studies also sug-gest that during the last 2―3 decades climate changes over China, especially North China's drying and northwest China's wetting, are closely related to the shift in ENSO towards warmer events and global warming since the late 1970s. The instability of the relationship is also studied. It is revealed that there is a good correlation between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells in the 3―8-year band, but the correlation between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is instable. Studies suggest that there are decadal changes in the correlation: the wavelet coherency between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is high during 1951―1962 and 1976―1991, but low during 1963―1975 and 1992―2000.

不同压力下新型地下灌水器流量及湿润锋变化

为探究压力对地下滴灌管渗水性能的影响,针对一种新型地下灌水器进行了不同工作压力下(0.02~0.18 MPa)自由出流的水力性能测试及0.02 MPa、0.05 MPa 2种压力条件下的室内土箱入渗试验,分析灌水器变异系数、流态指数及灌水均匀度随压力的变化规律以及入渗湿润锋运移规律。结果表明:自由出流条件下,灌水器流量变异系数为0.01,压力与流量关系式为q=6.54917 h^(0.521);流态指数x为0.521,灌水器对压力变化的敏感度较高;灌水均匀度系数均大于0.8。室内土箱入渗试验时,相同灌水器埋深下,压力越大,湿润锋运移速度越快,等时间内所形成的湿润体体积也越大,湿润锋在各方向水分运移距离与时间呈幂函数关系。

基于Copula函数的西江干流与粤西沿海诸小河径流丰枯遭遇分析

环北部湾广东水资源配置工程从西江干流取水至广东省粤西地区,为从根本上缓解粤西地区缺水问题,研究西江干流与粤西沿海诸小河径流丰枯遭遇对工程水资源优化配置及运行调度具有重要意义。为此,基于西江干流控制水文站梧州站与粤西二个小河控制站,即鉴江化州站及九洲江缸瓦窑站数据资料,采用Copula函数建立了年、枯期、汛期不同时间尺度的径流联合分布函数,分析了径流丰枯遭遇规律。结果表明,西江干流与粤西诸小河径流间具有较高的互补性,建设水资源配置工程可很好地缓解粤西地区的缺水问题。

基于日尺度旱涝急转指数的重庆市旱涝急转事件演变特征分析

为准确地反映旱涝急转事件的“突发性”与“交替性”特征,对重庆市34个气象站采用日尺度旱涝急转指数DWAAI提取1960—2018年旱涝急转事件,根据重庆市的实际情况划分不同强度旱涝急转事件对应的DWAAI数值范围,探究不同强度旱涝急转事件发生频次的时空演变特征。结果表明:重庆市旱涝急转事件以旱急转涝为主,旱急转涝事件占旱涝急转事件累计次数的85%,主要发生在4—9月,多年平均次数为22.64站次,其中,中度、重度事件占所有旱急转涝事件的11.7%、2.9%;旱急转涝事件频发于重庆市西部、中部及东北部区域,发生频次的变化趋势不显著;涝急转旱事件主要发生在7—9月,多年平均次数为5.60站次,轻度、中度事件占所有涝急转旱事件的92.9%、7.1%;涝急转旱事件在重庆市东南部、中部以及东北部区域的西部地区(如开县)频发,频发地区的发生频次总体呈增加的趋势。研究成果可为保障重庆市及相关地区水安全、加强防旱抗涝减灾工作提供理论基础。

The Peat-Organic-Soil in the Hula Valley

The main soil type, principle contributor of nutrients and available agricultural land in the Hula Valley is the organic Peat. Nevertheless, the relative contribution of Phosphorus from the Hula Valley to the Lake Kinneret inputs is lower than regional outsourcing. The Nitrogenic matter, mostly Nitrate migration from the Peat soil is significant. The implementation of efficient development is the key factor of Hula Land use. The financial beneficial success of the Hula land use is therefore dependent of Peat soil properties. The porosity of the Peat Soil is high and preferential pathway volume is low and Hydraulic Conductivity is therefore low. Consequently, the Mobile Spray Irrigation line was found as most suitable for cultivation in Peat Soil. Enhancement of Summer irrigation creating moisture elevation reduces Phosphorus migration from Peat Soil and is therefore recommended and recently implemented.

肝系疾病发生与患者出生日期五运六气特点相关性分析

【目的】探讨肝系疾病患者出生日期的五运六气特点,分析肝系疾病发生与患者出生日期五运六气特点的关联性。【方法】收集广东省中西医结合医院2021年5月至2023年5月收治的肝系疾病患者的住院病例共5057例,统计分析患者出生日期的五运六气特点。【结果】肝系疾病患者发病与主运、主气、客气、客主加临、运气相合密切相关;主运中,金运时期出生者患病率最高,火运最低;主气中,太阴湿土时段出生者患病率最高,太阳寒水时段出生者患病率最低;客气中,阳明燥金时段出生者患病率最高,少阴君火时段出生者患病率最低;不同客主加临时段中,客气相生或相克主气为顺关系时段出生者患病率最高,主气与客气为同气关系时段出生者患病率最低;在不同运气相合特点的年份中,顺化年出生者患病率最高,岁会年出生者患病率最低,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05或P<0.001)。【结论】肝系疾病发生与患者出生时的主运、主气、客气、客主加临、运气相合之间存在一定的关联性。

高分卫星监测大别山区西段土地利用时空变化研究

【目的】利用高分卫星监测大别山区西段林草湿地覆盖变化,对其生态环境进行定量评估,为后续生态环境保护及修复提供相关数据支撑。【方法】针对大别山西段典型生态屏障区,基于Landsat遥感影像,综合运用遥感图像处理技术制作了1980—2018年6期1:25万卫星遥感影像图和1:25万土地利用、覆盖遥感解译图。在此基础上,对大别山西段土地利用/覆盖各地类的面积进行统计计算,并对林草湿地覆盖的空间格局及时空变化进行了分析。【结果】从1980—2018年变化趋势来看:研究区内耕地总量持续减少,总面积减少了781.42 km2;草地呈先增加后减少的变化趋势,总面积减少了23.77 km~2;湿地呈现先减少后快速增加的趋势,总面积增加了168.43 km~2;林地面积呈波动变化,但整体上处于下降趋势;总面积减少了142.68 km~2。【结论】通过多期次遥感图像分析能够获取该地区土地利用和覆盖的空间分布格局及变化趋势,可为当地土地规划、利用和保护提供基础数据支撑,为生态保护和资源开发利用提供科学依据。

龙羊峡水库蓄丰补枯特征研究

丰、枯水期末蓄水量是影响多年调节水库蓄丰补枯规则的关键要素。以黄河上游龙羊峡水库为研究对象,基于该水库的历史运行资料,考虑水库丰、枯水期的来水量、初始蓄水量等影响,采用多元线性回归方程建立调度函数,推求丰、枯水期水库增补水量,确定水库的丰、枯水期末蓄水量。结果表明:(1)龙羊峡水库丰水期增水量的距平值与来水量的距平值呈显著的正相关性(R^(2)=0.42),枯水期水库补水量的距平值与初始蓄水量的距平值呈显著的正相关性(R^(2)=0.16);(2)由调度函数推求的丰水期增水量与实际增水量的相关性良好(R^(2)=0.62),枯水期补水量与实际补水量相关性也较好(R^(2)=0.38)。研究成果可为龙羊峡水库调度规则的建立提供依据,也可为其他多年调节水库的调度提供参考。

偏东气流影响下保山市2次大到暴雨天气过程对比分析

【目的】对比分析保山市2021年和2022年2次大到暴雨天气过程的成因。【方法】利用常规观测资料、NCEP再分析资料和雷达资料,从环流背景、物理量、中小尺度系统演变特征等方面进行分析。【结果】2次过程均发生在热带低压西进,偏东气流影响的天气尺度背景下,低层辐合切变线动力抬升,配合良好的水汽,造成了保山市大范围的强降水天气过程;雨强的强弱时段与垂直螺旋度的变化相吻合,湿位涡对暴雨有较好的诊断效果。2次过程均为高质心回波,均表现出明显的低层辐合、高层辐散的特征,同时引导风较弱,强回波移速较慢,使得小时累积雨量较大。【结论】层积混合云降水回波反射率因子剖面明显的回波倾斜和强回波梯度区,径向速度剖面低层辐合、高层辐散的特征,可作为短时强降水的判别依据。

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN DUST STORMS AND DRYNESS-WETNESS IN MIDDLE–EASTERN CHINA DURING 1470–1950

Based on 481-year records of historical dust storm （DS） and Dryness-Wetness Index （DWI） at 120 sites, spatial distribution characteristics of dryness-wetness （DW） in typical dust storm years （DS years） and in non-dust storm years （non-DS years） were derived for continental China. In DS years, most of the sites were drier than in normal years while in non-DS years wetter than normal, and the variation of DWI in DS years was larger than that in non-DS years. The relative instability and increased regional difference of atmospheric circulation in DS years might have induced more frequent DS events and dry-wet abnormality in continental China. In DS years the latitudinal （north-south） dry-wet difference was larger than that in non-DS years, that is, north China was even much drier than south China. This might be attributed to increased latitudinal differences of thermal and pressure gradients in DS years, resulting in the southward withdrawal of precipitation and increase of DS events.

近55年来四川盆地气候的干湿变化趋势分析

通过对四川盆地18个站点1955-2009年降水和气温等资料计算得到近55年来的湿润度指数,并运用趋势系数、气候倾向率和Mann-Kendall趋势检验等方法对四川盆地近55年的气候干湿变化趋势进行分析.研究结果显示,在空间分布上,四川盆地由西向东其气候变化趋势由变干趋势逐渐转为变湿趋势,但干湿差异并不显著;在时间变化趋势上,四川盆地气候在总体上没有呈现显著的变干或变湿趋势;乐山、绵阳、成都和宜宾在60年代后呈现变干趋势,并且在1966年、1993年、1997年和2001年存在气候的突变现象,达州和沙坪坝则呈现较显著的变湿趋势.四川盆地干湿气候变化主要是受降水和日照时数两个气象要素的影响.