Mapping Climate Services for Disaster Risk Management: A Systematic Review and Research Gaps from a Policy Process Perspective

Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect given its importance to institutions and climate services capacity, to better understand intricate facets of the development and the integration of climate services into disaster risk management.

Analytic Hierarchy Process for Technological Risks in the Process of Innovative Drug Development in China

Objective To identify the critical risks in the process of innovative drug research and development,and to provide reference for improving the efficiency of innovative drug development and risk control in China.Methods Expert investigation and analytic hierarchy process were used to determine the weights of different risks.Results and Conclusion The research and analysis results showed that the risks at different stages of development had different effects on the success rate of drug development,among which the risk at the drug discovery stage influenced the most.In the drug discovery stage,inappropriate target selection had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development.The lack of appropriate cell tissue or animal models had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from the discovery of a compound to the application for clinical trials.The difference in changes between nonclinical and clinical studies had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from early clinical studies to pivotal clinical studies.Incorrect dose selection had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from pivotal clinical studies to marketing authorization applications.The biggest impact from the marketing authorization application to the approval stage was inadequate communication with regulators.After investigating the weight of risk factors in the process of innovative drug development based on scientific methods,a new perspective for the risk control of new drug development and improving the research and development efficiency is provided.

Risk Management of Clinical Reference Dosimetry of a Large Hospital Network Using Statistical Process Control

Managing TG-51 reference dosimetry in a large hospital network can be a challenging task. The objectives of this study are to investigate the effectiveness of using Statistical Process Control (SPC) to manage TG-51 workflow in such a network. All the sites in the network performed the annual reference dosimetry in water according to TG-51. These data were used to cross-calibrate the same ion chambers in plastic phantoms for monthly QA output measurements. An energy-specific dimensionless beam quality cross-calibration factor, , was derived to monitor the process across multiple sites. The SPC analysis was then performed to obtain the mean, , standard deviation, σk, the Upper Control Limit (UCL) and Lower Control Limit (LCL) in each beam. This process was first applied to 15 years of historical data at the main campus to assess the effectiveness of the process. A two-year prospective study including all 30 linear accelerators spread over the main campus and seven satellites in the network followed. The ranges of the control limits (±3σ) were found to be in the range of 1.7% - 2.6% and 3.3% - 4.2% for the main campus and the satellite sites respectively. The wider range in the satellite sites was attributed to variations in the workflow. Standardization of workflow was also found to be effective in narrowing the control limits. The SPC is effective in identifying variations in the workflow and was shown to be an effective tool in managing large network reference dosimetry.

Risk Assessment and Management of Hazardous Hydrological and Geological Processes in Ukraine

Due to long and irrational land-utilization, Ukraine deals with one of the most strained ecological situations in Europe. This work is devoted to the study of land resources transformation that was caused by human activity. The subject of study is to assess and forecast physical land and soil degradation, associated with the technical intensification of hazardous exogenous processes. The research is based on the use of methods of ecologic-geomorphological analysis, mathematical-statistical modeling and forecasting. This project gives characteristics to the main anthropogenic factors of threats and risks to land and soil, which take place in the territory of Ukraine. The estimation was conducted relatively dangerous hydrological and geological processes that are key factors of physical degradation of resources. These processes include erosion, flooding, secondary waterlogging, landslides and other collapsed phenomena. Graphic models reflect specific factors and environmental consequences of the most dangerous exogenous processes. Predicted is the development of dangerous hydrological and geological processes, influenced by technogenic factors. Different scenarios of physical land degradation are developed by the example of a specific technonatural geosystem. A measurement system of the sustainable usage and management of soil condition in Ukraine is improved.

Research on Risk Management of Cross-Sea Bridges Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process—Taking Hangzhou Bay Bridge as an Example

Today, as the process of urbanization is accelerating, the country builds an extensive transportation network through bridges and roads, which facilitates the daily travel of the people and greatly promotes the development of the national economy. However, due to the cross-sea bridge spanning the bay, the overall scale, the complex construction environment, and the high technology content, the objective existence of risk factors in the construction process cannot be completely avoided. In the construction of cross-sea bridges, once a construction safety accident occurs, it will cause irreparable losses to the construction of the project. Taking Hangzhou Bay Bridge as an actual case, using the Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify possible risk factors during the life cycle of Hangzhou Bay Bridge, establish a corresponding risk evaluation system to evaluate the importance and probability of risk, and to rank the importance of risks, and control the corresponding construction risks by adopting measures such as risk transfer and risk retention. The research example shows that the project risk of the cross-sea bridge project can be combined with the analytic hierarchy process to identify, analyze and evaluate the importance of the various risks faced by the project, so as to adopt corresponding avoidance methods to reduce the project risk loss and achieve the project construction expectations Target.

Study on Environmental Risk and Economic Benefits of Rotation Systems in Farmland of Erhai Lake Basin

This study was designed to find out an optimised planting system of reducing non-point （source） pollution by analyzing the reasons and the factors of influence non-point pollution in farmland of Erhai Lake basin. The results showed that incomes, residual nitrogen in soil, and the loss of nitrogen in surface water in rice-garlic system were higher than those in rice-fava bean system. There were positive correlations between the nitrogen loss of farmland, nitrogen inputs, residual nitrogen in soil, and incomes of farmland. Economic benefits and environment benefits are both appropriate, if the area of rice-garlic system would be reduced to 53% and the area of rice-fava bean system increased to 36% of total cropping area in the investigated watershed. Adjustment of planting structure and introduction of reasonable rotation systems is considered an effective measure of controlling agricultural non-point pollution in watersheds of Erhai Lake.

HV Process Model of Software Development

Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) is one of the major ingredients for the development of efficient software systems within a time frame and low-cost involvement. From the literature, it is evident that there are various kinds of process models that are used by the software industries for the development of small, medium and long-term software projects, but many of them do not cover risk management. It is quite obvious that the improper selection of the software development process model leads to failure of the software products as it is time bound activity. In the present work, a new software development process model is proposed which covers the risks at any stage of the development of the software product. The model is named a Hemant-Vipin (HV) process model and may be helpful for the software industries for development of the efficient software products and timely delivery at the end of the client. The efficiency of the HV process model is observed by considering various kinds of factors like requirement clarity, user feedback, change agility, predictability, risk identification, practical implementation, customer satisfaction, incremental development, use of ready-made components, quick design, resource organization and many more and found through a case study that the presented approach covers many of parameters in comparison of the existing process models. .

A Novel Method for Assessing and Optimizing Software Project Process Based Risk Control

A new approach for assessing and optimizing software project process based on software risk control presented, which evaluates and optimizes software project process from the view of controlling the software project risks. A model for optimizing software risk control is given, a discrete optimization algorithm based on dynamic programruing is proposed and an example of using above method to solve a problem is also included in this paper. By improving the old passive post-project control into an active effective preaction, this new method can greatly promote the possibility of success of software projects.

Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.

Corporate Risk Strategic Management and Probabilistic Analysis Related to Environmental Liabilities: A Case Study

Environmental stewardship is one of the main indicators of corporate performance and reputation among investors today. However, historical operational practices and accidents have created significant environmental liabilities in the industrial sector, and now require significant investments for appropriate management and resolution. A strategic approach is imperative to assure that company’s financial resources are effectively allocated, and shareholders’ interests are protected. In addition, these liabilities must be appropriately and continuously reported, which require the use of robust forecasting techniques such as Monte Carlo Simulation. The present study results demonstrate that under an optimized strategic approach, liability management costs may be reduced in approximately 50%. In addition, the financial forecast under the selected approach may support appropriate reporting of company’s liabilities.

Considerations on Research of Environmental Risk Prevention and Control in “12th Five-Year Plan” Period

Along with the environmental pollution causes complexity and diversity increases ceaselessly, “national environmental protection” Twelfth Five “planning” (hereinafter referred to as “planning”) will be the environmental risk prevention as the “12th Five-Year Plan” one of the important tasks, including advancing environmental risk management in the whole process, key areas the environmental risk prevention measures. The whole process environmental risk management covers a risk source recognition, receptor vulnerability assessment, environmental risk characterization, risk decision and risk assessment of accident loss. This article from the environmental risk source classification, environmental risk classification management, environmental emergency response and environmental risk and insurance environment four aspects put forward the “12th Five-Year Plan” whole process environmental risk management content, to further reduce our country environmental pollution accident risk and policy makers to provide some decision support.

Common Management Process Model of New TQM Based on the Situation Analysis

In the previous study, we suggested the concept of new TQM based on the consideration of basic concept of Quality Control. Also, in the previous study, we suggested the target domains and entities of product and process based on the TQM Matrix and view point of Three Dimensional Unification Value Models for managing quality of organization systems. Furthermore, in the previous study, we suggest the Common Management Process of organizations. Based on the above suggestion, in this paper, we would like to propose the Common Management Process Model of Total Quality Management based on the consideration of situation analysis and more precise definition of TQM Matrix and Three Dimensional Unification Value Model of “Product and Process”. Improvement of quality and efficiency of organization management can be expected by the integration of conventional different management such as quality assurance, quality improvement, risk management, investment individually from the view point of common management process.

RISK MANAGEMENT IN ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE:WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOUR OPERATION IS BEING CONSTRUCTED?

Nearly forty years after the Clean Water Act(CWA)was passed,we’ve come a long way in our understanding of the strength and fragility of our water resources and the impact that our actions or inactions can have on them.Though regulatory systems are in place and best management practices(BMPs)are plentiful,successfully managing risk in environmental compliance remains a constant concern.Fortunately,the rules to environmental compliance are simple:half of it is paperwork and the other half is maintenance.If you take an organized and balanced approach to compliance,you should be able to keep risk at bay and avoid enforcement action.However,remember that no matter how thoroughly you prepare for a construction project,you may still encounter unexpected situations requiring environmental knowledge and understanding.As you start to plan your operation,you should take the time to stop and consider the risk associated with your project.The Environmental Protection Agency(EPA)considers risk to be“the chance of harmful effects to human health or to ecological systems resulting from exposure to the environmental stressor.”The“stressors”are a variety of physical,chemical,or biological activities that can cause negative reactions to ecosystems and the environment.1 In order to limit,and hopefully prevent,risky situations,the key is to assess and target the problems that could arise and then implement a system of metrics that help with prevention.

A Review of the History and Development of Integrated Pest Management(IPM)

The evolvement of IPM has experienced several significant stages. IPM is an ecosystem as a governance unit. It allows the presence of low numbers of pests because a direct or indirect relationship between biological species and their associated environmental living conditions could keep a long-term ecological balance. IPM also emphasizes overall benefits; it is necessary to integrate all kinds of safe, effective, economic, and simple managements as far as possible. When synthesizing and coordinating various managements, effective control object, effective time limit, effective scope, and effective degree of the individual method should be analysed first. The ultimate goal of IPM is for the sustainable development of agriculture. In the future IPM system engineering, crop resistance, the role of natural enemies, agricultural control, and the application of biological control technologies will be greatly strengthened, and the role of chemical pesticides will be significantly reduced. Safe, effective, and long-lasting control of pest populations will be below the level of harm caused, which could protect the ecological environment and the health of people and livestock, and promote the development of production.

Enterprise Process Modeling Methodology and Environment Supporting Project Management

Development of the global economy makes modem enterprises confront challenges of efficient managements for large projects and complex processes. Projects are typically managed in rather special manners. On the contrary, there exist many methodologies for product process management to achieve consistency and continuance. However, processes often lack flexibility offered by projects. This paper dis~ the relationship of conceptual characteristics between process and project, gives low-level details to tackle the difference between them, and proposes an enterprise process modeling method for project management. An integrated environment is designed to support the method from which both project management and process management can receive benefits and conform to the limitations.

Does Environmental Risk Affect Human Migration Behavior?

This study tests the influence of environmental risks associated with floods, hurricanes, and hazardous material releases on human migration behavior. With close attention to a function of environmental risk factors, socio-demographic attributes, hazard risk and locational attributes were measured and correlated to the standardized number of recent arrivals and long term residents at the census tract level. Two groups (i.e., recent arrivals and long-term residents) were created to compare their moving behavior. The results indicate that flood risk showed little relationship to either recent arrivals or long-term residents. These results are consistent with past research which suggests that people tend to ignore their vulnerability to natural hazards. However, both groups had negative relationships to the risk from hurricanes and hazardous material releases. This counter-intuitive result suggests that other factors, such as proximity to employment opportunities or property tax advantages, need to be examined. In particular, the recent arrivals were negatively related to chemical risk while long-term residents were positively related to chemical risks, indicating that people that just arrived and old residents are somewhat different in perceiving environmental risks. In addition, the results of this study suggest that people are objective about environmental risks in selecting their habitat. However, once the habitat is settled, people’s perception of the risks may be interfered or reduced by other factors.

Scenarios for Sustainable Management of a Solid Release from a Hydrometallurgical Zinc Treatment in the Democratic Republic of Congo

The treatment of zinc ores at the UZK(Kolwezi Zinc Factory),in the DRC(Democratic Republic of Congo),has generated a deposit of solid releases rich in recoverable metals,but presented an environmental risk given the conditions of its storage.The results of chemical analyses by X-ray fluorescence have shown the presence of base metals recoverable in significant proportions in these releases,which contain on average 17%zinc and 3.5%copper.In addition,X-ray diffraction analyses have identified the main minerals:franklinite,willemite and sphalerite.The environmental risks are real,because the results of the availability tests for leaching have revealed significant zinc and copper extraction rates for a liquid to solid ratio of 100 and those of landfill compliances show that although under European Directive 2003/33/EC,these discharges are dangerous and must be treated under conditions which respect the environment.Following an environmental risk assessment,two scenarios for reprocessing these discharges are envisaged and will be compared from a technical,economic and environmental point of view,including their feasibility in the context of the DRC.The two processes would be on the one hand a hot acid attack in two or three stages and on the other hand a mixed digestion-roasting treatment followed by leaching with water.

Study of Volatility Stochastic Processes in the Context of Solvency Forecasting for Sri Lankan Life Insurers

The main business of Life Insurers is Long Term contractual obligations with a typical lifetime of 20 - 40 years. Therefore, the Solvency metric is defined by the adequacy of capital to service the cash flow requirements arising from the said obligations. The main component inducing volatility in Capital is market sensitive Assets, such as Bonds and Equity. Bond and Equity prices in Sri Lanka are highly sensitive to macro-economic elements such as investor sentiment, political stability, policy environment, economic growth, fiscal stimulus, utility environment and in the case of Equity, societal sentiment on certain companies and industries. Therefore, if an entity is to accurately forecast the impact on solvency through asset valuation, the impact of macro-economic variables on asset pricing must be modelled mathematically. This paper explores mathematical, actuarial and statistical concepts such as Brownian motion, Markov Processes, Derivation and Integration as well as Probability theorems such as the Probability Density Function in determining the optimum mathematical model which depicts the accurate relationship between macro-economic variables and asset pricing.

Effect of Healthcare Failure Mode and Effect Analysis on Reducing Error Risk of Neonatal Parenteral Nutrition Solution Dispensing

[Objectives]To investigate the effect of healthcare failure mode and effect analysis(HFMEA)on reducing error risk of neonatal parenteral nutrition solution dispensing.[Methods]A research team was established to identify the failure mode(FM)in each link of the formulation process of neonatal parenteral nutrition solution by HFMEA,quantify the severity(S),occurrence(O)and detection(D)of FM,and evaluate FM by risk priority number(RPN).For FM with the values of RPN>16,failure cause analysis was conducted,and corresponding improvement measures were formulated.The weight coefficient and random consistency ratio(CR)of deployment process were calculated in Matlab R2018a by compiling the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)program.Six months after the implementation of improvement measures,the implementation effect was evaluated by comparing the changes of the values of RPN which was evaluated comprehensively and the rate of dispensing errors before and after the implementation of HFMEA.[Results]In the preparation process of neonatal parenteral nutrition solution,a total of 13 FMs with medium and above risk were found,the weight coefficient of medical order review,dosing and mixing was 0.2703,the weight coefficient of drug dispensing check and review was 0.1432,the weight coefficient of print label was 0.1015,the weight coefficient of distribution was 0.0716,and CR=0.0491<0.1.After six months of intervention,the total RPN value decreased by 64.81%from 127.8 to 45.0.The deployment error rates were significantly lower after the implementation,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).[Conclusions]HFMEA can effectively reduce the error risk in preparation of neonatal parenteral nutrition solution,improve the quality of dispensing and promote the safety of neonatal medication.

Relationships between Potential Risk of Hazardous Material Releases and Socio-Economic Demographic Characteristics Using Geospatial Analysis

The problem investigated in this research is about the potential risk of technological hazards, which poses a perilous threat to humankind and the environment. Rapid urbanization has been increasing the population density in an area, elevating the risk of exposure to technological disasters. Therefore, it is necessary to detect the areas with higher chemical risk to spread awareness about the potential risk zones and reduce actual damage and casualties resulting from the hazardous substance events. The basic design of the study utilizes geospatial analysis to map the TRI (Toxics Release Inventory) facilities in the communities of Texas to establish a relationship between potential hazardous material release zones and the human population at risk. The study identified the vulnerable counties as well as investigated how those risk areas are related to race/ethnicity, income and education. The research would contribute to the policymakers acting on the hazard situation and keep them better prepared for chemical hazards. In addition, it would help the residents and emergency managers to better understand the circumstance to mitigate the consequences as well as increase their awareness to be ready for the uncertainties in the hotspots involved in high risk of the hazards.