Research and Application of Probability Distribution of Wind Power Fluctuation Characteristics

The fluctuation characteristics is the inherent property of wind power.Through analysis of a large number of wind t＇anns based on measured data,we find it describes the best probability distribution of wind power fluctuation for the mixed Gauss distribution of two components,and try to carry out the physical interpretation of two components.Further discussion is between the probability distribution of fluctuating wind power time difference and whole relationship.It is found that the two have basic similarity.Through comparing the different time level data quantified losses the information of wind power fluctuation,quantitative determination of the degree of impact prediction.We can summarize and understand of wind power fluctuation,constructing instance from the wind farm construction and monitoring prediction two aspect recommendations to overcome the adverse effects of wind power fluctuations on the power grid operation.

Probability distribution of wind power volatility based on the moving average method and improved nonparametric kernel density estimation

In the process of large-scale,grid-connected wind power operations,it is important to establish an accurate probability distribution model for wind farm fluctuations.In this study,a wind power fluctuation modeling method is proposed based on the method of moving average and adaptive nonparametric kernel density estimation(NPKDE)method.Firstly,the method of moving average is used to reduce the fluctuation of the sampling wind power component,and the probability characteristics of the modeling are then determined based on the NPKDE.Secondly,the model is improved adaptively,and is then solved by using constraint-order optimization.The simulation results show that this method has a better accuracy and applicability compared with the modeling method based on traditional parameter estimation,and solves the local adaptation problem of traditional NPKDE.

Numerical Investigation on Power Outputs of a Wind Turbine Sited over Continuous Hilly Terrain

The location of wind turbines on a continuous hilly terrain has an influence on its power outputs.A CFDbased approach is developed to investigate the complex aerodynamic interference between two wind turbines and the hilly terrain.In this approach,a new three-dimensional model of hilly terrain is established to analyze its viscous effect,and a wind shear is modelled through logarithmic function.They are coupled into the aerodynamics of wind turbine based on“FLUENT”software.Then we apply the proposed method to the NREL Phase VI wind turbines and compare with an experiment in the atmospheric boundary layer(ABL)wind tunnel to validate its accuracy.The simulation also investigates the power outputs of wind turbines on the flat ground and the continuous hilly terrain by changing the location of the wind turbine related to the hilly terrain and the shape of the 1st hill.The results show that the wind turbine located on the top of the 2nd hill has the maximum power;and that when the wind turbine is located on the downstream of the hill,the stall zone should be avoided,and the power of the wind turbine located on the side of the hill is higher than that of the wind turbine located on the front and rear of the hilly terrain.

Analysis of Cooperation between Wind Power and Load Side Resources

Development of the intermittent energy is greatly promoted by change in energy, while consumption of large-scale intermittent energy is becoming a problem. With the development of smart grid technology, controllability of load side resources is becoming more and more important. Based on the wave characteristics of wind power, this paper indicates that wind energy has continuous output characteristics on the hour-time scale. Through analysis on loads characteristic of industry, public facility and resident, this paper gets comprehensive response of load side resources. Considering characteristics of wind power output, combined with different load side resources and DR program, this paper suggests cooperation between wind power and load side resources on different time scales.

Protection of Large-scale Wind Power Integration

More and more large capacity wind power will be integrated into power system in the future,and certain technical challenges will emerge due to the fluctuation characteristics of wind power and the complex control of power electronic devices inside the wind turbines(e.g.,low voltage ride through(LVRT)).By comparing a wind power integration grid with a hydropower integration grid,the special transient phenomena caused by the wind power integration is studied and simulation results are presented.Furthermore,the potential impacts on the traditional protection are discussed.Results show that the special transient phenomena can decrease the sensitivity,reliability and operation speed of conventional protections.

基于PSS／E Wind大型风电场并入输电网的动态特性研究

以PSS/E和风机软件包为平台,建立了基于滑差可调绕线式异步风电机组的恒速恒频风电场模型,并以CIGREB4-39风电场并网系统标准模型为例,研究了不同种风速扰动下的风电场动态特性,分析了对于不同容量、不同并网点风电场在不同种故障点扰动下保持稳定运行的能力。研究表明,扰动风速增量过大时,风电场振荡加剧;在一定容量范围内,大容量风电场表现出更强的抗扰动能力;同步发电机的调节作用对近区风电场稳定运行有明显改善的效果。

Generating wind power time series based on its persistence and variation characteristics

Generation of wind power time series is an important foundational task for assisting electric power system planning and mak- ing decision. By analyzing the characteristics of wind power persistence and variation, th!.s paper proposes an improved Mar- kov chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） method, identified as the PV-MC method, for the direct generation of a synthetic series of wind power output. On the basis of the MCMC method, duration time and variation features are concluded in PV-MC method, gaining a more comprehensive reflection of wind power characteristics in the generated wind power time series. First, the wind power state series is generated to meet the state transition matrix based on the definition of the wind power state. Then, the time duration of each state in the series is determined by its respective duration character. Finally, the variation characteristic is used to convert the state series to a wind power time series. A significant amount of simulations are performed based on the PV-MC and MCMC methods and are then compared for 25 wind farms at 6 different locations throughout the world. The sim- ulation results show that the PV-MC method offers an excellent fit for the time domain features （persistence and variation characteristic） while holding other statistic features （mean value, variance, autocorrelation coefficient （ACC） and probability density function （PDF）） close to the MCMC method.

Analysis and Assessment of Wind Energy Potential of Socotra Archipelago in Yemen

The increasing use of fossil fuels has a significant impact on the environment and ecosystem,which increases the rate of pollution.Given the high potential of renewable energy sources inYemen and the absence of similar studies in the region,this study aims to examine the potential of wind energy in Socotra Island.This was done by analyzing and evaluating wind properties,determining available energy density,calculating wind energy extracted at different altitudes,and then computing the capacity factor for a number of wind turbines and determining the best.The average wind speed in Socotra Island was obtained from the Civil Aviation and Meteorology Authority data,only for the five-year data currently available.The results showed high wind speeds from June to September(9.85-14.88 m/s)while the wind speed decreased for the rest of the year.The average wind speed in the five years was 7.95 m/s.The average annual wind speed,wind energy density,and annual energy density were calculated at different altitudes(10,30,and 50 m).According to the International Wind Energy Rating criteria,the region of Socotra Island falls under Category 7 and is classified as‘Superb’for most of the year.This study provides useful information for developing wind energy and an efficient wind approach.

计及UPFC最优配置的电力系统鲁棒调度协同优化策略

统一潮流控制器(UPFC)应用于潮流调控时,计及UPFC调控参数的交流潮流计算是非凸、非线性问题,且多台装置间的非线性交叉耦合特性也会直接影响优化配置方案。为此,基于UPFC的潮流调控特性,构建了计及UPFC的松弛型交流潮流二阶锥规划模型;计及风电的不确定性,协同考虑UPFC的规划和电力系统的调度问题,建立了计及UPFC最优配置的电力系统鲁棒协同优化模型,并采用列和约束生成算法进行求解。以IEEE RTS-24节点系统为算例进行仿真分析,结果表明所提协同优化策略有效提升了UPFC配置方案的适应性,提高了系统运行经济性和风电消纳能力,增强了系统运行调控的灵活性。

风电接入远海油气平台的规划方法

海上风电直供远海油气平台可降低发电成本和碳排放,但传统规划方法不适用于远海油气平台的负荷特性。在考虑海上油田电力系统燃气透平机组与负荷特性的基础上,建立计及风-燃-荷功率动态匹配特性的扩展概率潮流模型,提出适用于远海油气平台的风机规划方法。采用所提潮流计算方法,在满足远海油田电力系统的电压、线路载流量等约束条件下,以年发电成本与年碳排放量的综合成本最低为目标建立规划模型,并采用粒子群优化算法对模型进行求解。以我国某远海油田电力系统为例,提出针对远海油田电力系统特点的风电接入方案,算例结果表明,所提规划方法具有可行性。

NWP辅助复合神经网络预测误差修正的风储系统日前上报策略

新能源电站出力存在强波动性导致巨额偏差考核支出,因此基于数值天气预报(NWP)和复合深度学习算法,提出一种计及误差预测修正的风储系统日前上报策略。首先通过改进的组合数据预处理算法对数据进行清洗以降低后续预测难度,建立基于分段式收敛粒子群算法(PCPSO)参数寻优的长短期记忆网络(LSTM)对分量分别进行预测,重构预测结果获取原预测曲线。其次考虑预测误差及NWP信息导入多输入反向传播神经网络(MIBP)获取误差预测曲线,使用非参数核密度函数修订该预测误差曲线后,以储能跟踪误差最小和储能全局调控能力最高为目的模拟储能运行获取最佳储能动作曲线,且叠加原预测曲线和最佳储能动作曲线获取最终日前上报曲线。最后通过仿真分析验证了上报策略的正确性与可行性。

基于敏感频段识别的高风电渗透率电力系统频率特性研究

针对风电功率波动性显著的问题,展开了基于敏感频段识别的高风电渗透率电力系统频率特性的研究。分析了单机电力系统在有功功率扰动下的频率响应特性,构建了包含风电的多机电力系统PSASP暂态仿真模型,介绍了多机电力系统敏感频段的识别方法。通过仿真分析,探讨了敏感频段下风功率波动对多机电力系统频率特性的影响。研究结果表明,多机电力系统中确实存在敏感频段,并且随着风电渗透率的不断提升,系统的调频能力和抵御风功率波动的能力会逐渐减弱。该研究成果为更全面地评估风电系统的敏感频段特性提供了依据,同时也为提升风电功率预测精度提供了技术参考。

深远海大兆瓦级半潜式风机基础运动特性数值模拟及试验研究

针对水深百米以上的深远海浮式风电开发需求,本文面向可搭载大兆瓦级(15 MW)风机的新型半潜式风机基础的运动特性展开研究。利用AQWA软件建立了该基础与系泊系统的数值模型,基于南海实际海况确定了风机塔筒的载荷,并开展了缩尺比为1∶64的水池模型试验,验证了数值模型计算的准确性;基于验证的数值模型分析了新型风机基础在南海恶劣海况下的运动特性及系泊张力,发现该新型风机基础的运动极值和系泊张力均满足规范要求。相同海况下,新型风机基础与经典半潜式风机基础OC4-DeepCwind(三浮筒平台)的运动性能及系泊缆张力对比结果表明:发电工况下,新型风机基础的垂荡和倾角的极值较三浮筒平台的分别下降62.8%和81.3%;停机工况下,垂荡和倾角的极值则分别下降46.1%和41.4%,充分说明该新型风机基础具有优越的运动性能;而在停机工况下1、2号缆系泊张力最大值分别下降17.4%和9.6%,大大降低了系泊系统的设计难度。研究结果为中国深远海浮式风电开发船型的选择提供了借鉴。

考虑撬棒与直流卸荷协同保护动作特性的双馈风电场通用等值建模方法

低电压穿越(low voltage ride through,LVRT)期间撬棒(Crowbar)保护和直流卸荷(Chopper)保护的工作状态均对双馈风电机组(doubly fed induction generator,DFIG)的暂态响应特性有重要影响。传统等值方法往往只能识别与表征撬棒保护动作情况及其暂态特性,对于目前普遍的硬件协同保护场景而言,将造成等值误差,进而难以从电网侧准确描述风电接入后的动态特性及作用规律,在高比例风电场景下这样的误差将被放大,严重时可能会对电力系统安全稳定分析造成影响。因此,该文充分考虑双馈感应风机(doubly fed induction generator,DFIG)低电压穿越控制策略,揭示风机低电压穿越下两种保护协同动作特性,提出一种双馈型风电场通用等值方法,通过MATLAB/Simulink验证理论分析的正确性,并与仅考虑Crowbar保护的等值方法对比,说明所提等值建模方法的准确性。

基于运行状态与功率特性引导的覆冰天气下风电机组功率预测

针对覆冰天气下风电机组功率预测精度不足的问题,提出一种基于运行状态与功率特性引导的覆冰天气下风电机组功率预测方法。针对覆冰天气下风电机组样本不平衡的问题,采用贝叶斯优化的改进轻量级梯度提升机模型对覆冰天气下的风电机组数据样本进行状态判别并建立运行状态特征标签;针对覆冰天气下非停机运行小样本的问题,构建基于功率特性引导的风电机组功率预测模型,降低功率预测模型对数据的依赖,提升在覆冰天气运行场景下的预测准确性。采用广西某风电场风电机组数据进行算例验证,结果表明,相较于典型预测方法,所提方法在覆冰天气下的预测性能显著提升。

不同偏航工况下受迫运动风力机动力学特性

针对不同偏航工况下受迫运动风力机的动力学特性,文章建立了弹性基础的风力机模型。在湍流来流的条件下,实现模型风力机无规律、多自由度旋转的受迫运动状态,研究风力机的尾流场分布特性及能量特性。结果表明:在偏航角为0°时,由于受迫运动风力机存在多自由度旋转运动,受迫运动风力机的尾流明显小于固定式风力机,而湍流动能大于固定式风力机尾流中的湍流动能;随着偏航角的增大,风力机的尾流和湍流动能分布均出现径向偏移现象,偏移方向与偏航角旋转方向相反,且尾流和湍流动能均随着偏航角的增大而减小;随着偏航角的增大,受迫运动风力机和固定式风力机的平均输出功率均减小,受迫运动风力机的平均输出功率均小于固定式风力机的平均输出功率。

基于改进的场景分类和去粗粒化MCMC的风电出力模拟方法

为实现风电出力时间序列的高性能模拟,文中提出了一种基于SAGA-KM(simulated annealing and genetic algorithms-K-means)算法实现典型风电场景分类和基于Copula函数进行风电日过程马尔可夫过程建模的风电模拟方法。SAGA-KM算法将传统KM算法与遗传算法和退火算法相结合,能显著提高风电场景分类效果;基于Copula函数建立的马尔可夫链精细概率模型,以去粗粒化方式实现马尔可夫过程蒙特卡洛模拟,克服了粗粒化引起的概率分布偏差。针对甘肃省某风电场数据进行实际模拟,结果表明文中方法生成模拟序列的统计分布特性、自相关函数特性和日均功率的分布特性与实测数据都非常接近,该方法能很好地保留风电序列的概率分布特性和随时间变化的波动特性,具有重要的工程实用价值。

海上风电单柱复合筒型基础拖航浮运特性分析

为保证单柱复合筒型基础拖航安全性,针对实际工程中单柱复合筒型基础制作比尺模型,采用模型试验的方法,对单柱复合筒型基础浮运特性展开研究,分析不同拖航方式对结构的拖航特性的影响,旨在为实际工程提供指导性建议。研究结果表明:在实际拖航中,要合理的选择拖揽点的位置和吃水深度,避免结构出现艏倾现象,在保证安全拖航的前提下可适当增吃水深度增加结构的拖航稳性。

砂土中海上倾斜螺旋群桩基础承载特性研究

[目的]海上风电产业是全球新能源发展道路上最具先导性和战略性的新兴产业之一。文章以应用于海上风电基础中的倾斜螺旋群桩基础为研究对象,系统地研究了其承载特性。作为一种具有广阔应用前景的新型基础型式,对其承载特性进行精准研究对后续倾斜螺旋群桩基础的普及应用及海上风电行业发展有着重要意义。[方法]通过有限元软件系统地研究了桩数、桩间距和倾斜角度等变量对倾斜螺旋群桩承载特性的影响,进而得出了多种工况下螺旋桩的群桩效应系数及承载力随桩数、倾斜角度和桩间距的变化规律。[结果]结果表明:倾斜螺旋群桩相较于单桩基桩承载力提升了15%左右,群桩效率系数随桩数增加而增大;群桩基础承载力随桩间距呈正相关变化趋势,桩间距越小中心土体压力叠加越显著,在桩间距取值范围内,极限承载力变化幅值为4%左右;倾角越大,倾斜螺旋群桩基础受压承载力性能越优异,群桩受压效率系数也随之增大,受压承载时8°倾角较为高效;受拉拔作用时,倾斜螺旋群桩上部土体受到扰动较小,倾斜群桩基础受桩间距的影响程度更大,群桩中心处土体竖向位移极值深度随桩间距增大而逐渐上移;受压作用时,倾斜螺旋群桩对土体影响范围更大,桩间相互影响更为稳定,群桩中心处土体竖向位移极值深度与桩间距、倾角无明显相关关系。[结论]研究成果可为我国海上风电螺旋群桩基础建设提供一定的研究思路及手段,对倾斜螺旋群桩基础尺寸设计及承载力评估具有一定的参考意义,有一定的科学意义和工程应用价值。

基于点吸收式波能装置风浪联合获能系统动力特性研究

基于风和波浪的伴生关系及波浪能与风能同时获取的可行性,提出一种基于半潜式风力机与点吸收式波能装置的新型风浪联合获能系统。建立考虑等效(PTO)的全过程风-浪-多体耦合时域分析模型,并研究波能装置设计参数对波浪能输出功率的影响规律,重点研究风浪联合运行海况下新型风浪联合获能系统的结构动力响应特征与获能特性。结果表明,波能装置的安装对平台纵荡运动和系泊系统产生不利影响,对风力涡轮机的影响较小,此外垂荡和纵摇响应均随波能装置的加入得到抑制,纵摇角平均值减小25%,垂荡位移标准差减小42%,与漂浮式风力机相比,联合获能系统的平均输出功率增加17%。