The role of diminishing Arctic sea ice in increased winter snowfall over northern high-latitude continents in a warming environment

Large parts of North America, Europe, Siberia, and East Asia have experienced cold snaps and heavy snowfalls for the past few winters, which have been linked to rapid decline of Arctic sea ice. Although the role of reduction in Arctic sea ice in recent cold and snowy winters is still a matter of debate, there is considerable interest in determining whether such an emerging climate feedback will persist into the future in a warming environment. Here we show that increased winter snowfall would be a robust feature throughout the 21st century in the northeastern Europe, central and northern Asia and northern North America as projected by current-day climate model simulations under the medium mitigation scenario. We argue that the increased winter snowfall in these regions during the 21st century is due primarily to the diminishing autumn Arctic sea ice （largely externally forced）. Variability of the winter Arctic Oscillation （dominant mode of natural variability in the Northern Hemisphere）, in contrast, has little contribution to the increased winter snowfall. This is evident in not only the multi-model ensemble mean, but also each individual model （not model-dependent）. Our findings reinforce suggestions that a strong sea ice-snowfall feedback might have emerged, and would be enhanced in coming decades, increasing the chance of heavy snowfall events in northern high-latitude continents.

Possible connection between anomalous activity of Scandinavian Atmospheric Teleconnection Pattern and winter snowfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin of China

The temporal and spatial characteristics of winter snowfall in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) of China and its possible connection with Scandinavian Atmospheric Teleconnection Pattern (SCAND) anomalies are explored based on daily meteorological data contained in the Daily Surface Climate Dataset for China (V3.0) during the period 1960–2012. Results show that winter snowfall in the YHRB exhibits consistent anomalies over the whole region for the interannual variation during 1960–2012. Further analysis suggests that winter snowfall anomalies in the YHRB are closely linked to the anomalous wintertime SCAND activity. When there is more winter snowfall in the YHRB, SCAND is usually in a positive phase, accompanied by a strengthened Urals blocking high and East Asian trough, which is conducive to strengthened cold-air activity, intensified vertical motions, and more water vapor transport in the YHRB. In contrast, less winter snowfall in the YHRB usually happens in the negative phase of SCAND. Our results provide useful information to better understand the relevant mechanism responsible for anomalous winter snowfall in this area.

Warming over the North Pacific can intensify snow events in Northeast China

The variation of winter snowfall intensity over Northeast China and its relationship with the autumn North Pacific SST are investigated for the period 1960–2012. An upward trend is apparent for the winter snowfall intensity over Northeast China during the last half-century, coinciding with an increasing autumn SST over the North Pacific. Their interannual correlation coefficient reaches up to 0.58 for the past five decades, and 0.42 after their trends are removed. Further analyses indicate that the warming SST during autumn may persist into winter. Correspondingly, large parts of East Asia and the North Pacific are dominated by an anticyclonic anomaly, which can induce an anomalous southeasterly over Northeast China, weaken the northerly wind, then warm the surface, increase the water vapor content and intensify snowfall events. Thus, the autumn North Pacific SST can be considered as a key predictor for winter snowfall events over Northeast China. Results from leaveone-out cross-validation and independent validation both show a significant correlation and a small RMSE between prediction and observation. Therefore, the autumn SST over the North Pacific is suggested as a potential predictor for winter snowfall intensity in Northeast China.