Too many climate committees, conferences, articles and publications continue to suggest a one and a half (1.5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) to two degrees (2<span style=&quo...Too many climate committees, conferences, articles and publications continue to suggest a one and a half (1.5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) to two degrees (2<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) Celsius as an achievable global limit to climate changes without establishment of any causal link to the proposed anti-warming mechanism. A comprehensive review has found instead that observationally informed projections of climate science underlying climate change offer a different outlook of five to six-degree (5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C - 6<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) increase as “most accurate” with regard to present trends, climate history and models, yielding the most likely outcome for 2100. The most causative triad for the present warming trend from 1950 to the present is identified in this paper: 1) the tripling (3×) of world population;2) the quadrupling (4×) of carbon emissions;and 3) the quintupling (5×) of the world energy consumption. This paper presents a quantitative, linear global temperature correlation to carbon dioxide levels that has great predictive value, a short temporal feedback loop, and the finding that it is also reversible. The Vostok ice core temperature and CO2 values for the past 400,000 years, with past sea level estimates have produced the sufficiently evidential “Hansen’s Graph”. Detailed analysis results in an equation for global average temperature change and an indebted, long-term sea level rise, from even a 20 ppm of CO2 change above 290 ppm, commonly taken as a baseline for levels before 1950. Comparison to the well-known 800,000 year old Dome C ice core is also performed. The best-performing climate change models and observational analysis are seen to project more warming than the average model often relied upon. World atmosphere, temperature, and sea level trends for 2100 and beyond are analyzed. A laboratory experiment proves the dramatic heat-entrapment capability of CO<sub>2</sub> compared to pure air, which yields insights into the future global atmospheric system. Policy-relevant climate remediation, including gigaton carbon capture, zero and negative emissions and positive individual action, are reviewed and updated, with recommendations.展开更多
文摘Too many climate committees, conferences, articles and publications continue to suggest a one and a half (1.5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) to two degrees (2<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) Celsius as an achievable global limit to climate changes without establishment of any causal link to the proposed anti-warming mechanism. A comprehensive review has found instead that observationally informed projections of climate science underlying climate change offer a different outlook of five to six-degree (5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C - 6<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) increase as “most accurate” with regard to present trends, climate history and models, yielding the most likely outcome for 2100. The most causative triad for the present warming trend from 1950 to the present is identified in this paper: 1) the tripling (3×) of world population;2) the quadrupling (4×) of carbon emissions;and 3) the quintupling (5×) of the world energy consumption. This paper presents a quantitative, linear global temperature correlation to carbon dioxide levels that has great predictive value, a short temporal feedback loop, and the finding that it is also reversible. The Vostok ice core temperature and CO2 values for the past 400,000 years, with past sea level estimates have produced the sufficiently evidential “Hansen’s Graph”. Detailed analysis results in an equation for global average temperature change and an indebted, long-term sea level rise, from even a 20 ppm of CO2 change above 290 ppm, commonly taken as a baseline for levels before 1950. Comparison to the well-known 800,000 year old Dome C ice core is also performed. The best-performing climate change models and observational analysis are seen to project more warming than the average model often relied upon. World atmosphere, temperature, and sea level trends for 2100 and beyond are analyzed. A laboratory experiment proves the dramatic heat-entrapment capability of CO<sub>2</sub> compared to pure air, which yields insights into the future global atmospheric system. Policy-relevant climate remediation, including gigaton carbon capture, zero and negative emissions and positive individual action, are reviewed and updated, with recommendations.
