Mathematical Modeling of Possibility Markov Chains by Possibility Theory

Statistical regression models are input-oriented estimation models that account for observation errors. On the other hand, an output-oriented possibility regression model that accounts for system fluctuations is proposed. Furthermore, the possibility Markov chain is proposed, which has a disidentifiable state (posterior) and a nondiscriminable state (prior). In this paper, we first take up the entity efficiency evaluation problem as a case study of the posterior non-discriminable production possibility region and mention Fuzzy DEA with fuzzy constraints. Next, the case study of the ex-ante non-discriminable event setting is discussed. Finally, we introduce the measure of the fuzzy number and the equality relation and attempt to model the possibility Markov chain mathematically. Furthermore, we show that under ergodic conditions, the direct sum state can be decomposed and reintegrated using fuzzy OR logic. We had already constructed the Possibility Markov process based on the indifferent state of this world. In this paper, we try to extend it to the indifferent event in another world. It should be noted that we can obtain the possibility transfer matrix by full use of possibility theory.

Durable poly(binaphthyl-co-p-terphenyl piperidinium)-based anion exchange membranes with dual side chains

Building well-developed ion-conductive highways is highly desirable for anion exchange membranes(AEMs).Grafting side chain is a highly effective approach for constructing a well-defined phaseseparated morphological structure and forming unblocked ion pathways in AEMs for fast ion transport.Fluorination of side chains can further enhance phase separation due to the superhydrophobic nature of fluorine groups.However,their electronic effect on the alkaline stability of side chains and membranes is rarely reported.Here,fluorine-containing and fluorine-free side chains are introduced into the polyaromatic backbone in proper configuration to investigate the impact of the fluorine terminal group on the stability of the side chains and membrane properties.The poly(binaphthyl-co-p-terphenyl piperidinium)AEM(QBNp TP)has the highest molecular weight and most dimensional stability due to its favorable backbone arrangement among ortho-and meta-terphenyl based AEMs.Importantly,by introducing both a fluorinated piperidinium side chain and a hexane chain into the p-terphenyl-based backbone,the prepared AEM(QBNp TP-QFC)presents an enhanced conductivity(150.6 m S cm^(-1))and a constrained swelling at 80℃.The electronic effect of fluorinated side chains is contemplated by experiments and simulations.The results demonstrate that the presence of strong electro-withdrawing fluorine groups weakens the electronic cloud of adjacent C atoms,increasing OH^(-)attack on the C atom and improving the stability of piperidinium cations.Hence QBNp TP-QFC possesses a robust alkaline stability at 80℃(95.3%conductivity retention after testing in 2 M Na OH for 2160 h).An excellent peak power density of 1.44 W cm^(-2)and a remarkable durability at 80℃(4.5%voltage loss after 100 h)can be observed.

A Tutorial Review of the Solar Power Curve: Regressions, Model Chains, and Their Hybridization and Probabilistic Extensions

Owing to the persisting hype in pushing toward global carbon neutrality,the study scope of atmospheric science is rapidly expanding.Among numerous trending topics,energy meteorology has been attracting the most attention hitherto.One essential skill of solar energy meteorologists is solar power curve modeling,which seeks to map irradiance and auxiliary weather variables to solar power,by statistical and/or physical means.In this regard,this tutorial review aims to deliver a complete overview of those fundamental scientific and engineering principles pertaining to the solar power curve.Solar power curves can be modeled in two primary ways,one of regression and the other of model chain.Both classes of modeling approaches,alongside their hybridization and probabilistic extensions,which allow accuracy improvement and uncertainty quantification,are scrutinized and contrasted thoroughly in this review.

Establishment of Regional Green Innovation Value Chains:A Case Study on Tackling the Impeded Diffusion of Green Products

The green innovation value chain is a key step in transforming green,innovative scientific,and technological achievements into productive forces.The establishment of green innovation value chains based on value distribution rather than technical conditions can effectively overcome the common bottleneck faced by different nations during their green innovation endeavors,namely,the substitution of conventional products with green alternatives.This study investigates the impeded diffusion of green products and their underlying causes,analyzes the internal structure and mechanism of the green innovation value chain,and explores the establishment of regional green innovation value chains and the models available for value chain upgrading.

Risk-Balanced Routing Strategy for Service Function Chains of Cyber-Physical Power System Considering Cross-Space Cascading Failure

Cyber-physical power system(CPPS)has significantly improved the operational efficiency of power systems.However,cross-space cascading failures may occur due to the coupling characteristics,which poses a great threat to the safety and reliability of CPPS,and there is an acute need to reduce the probability of these failures.Towards this end,this paper first proposes a cascading failure index to identify and quantify the importance of different information in the same class of communication services.On this basis,a joint improved risk-balanced service function chain routing strategy(SFC-RS)is proposed,which is modeled as a robust optimization problem and solved by column-and-constraint generation(C-CG)algorithm.Compared with the traditional shortest-path routing algorithm,the superiority of SFC-RS is verified in the IEEE 30-bus system.The results demonstrate that SFC-RS effectively mitigates the risk associated with information transmission in the network,enhances information transmission accessibility,and effectively limits communication disruption from becoming the cause of cross-space cascading failures.

Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Cooperation Under the Reshaping of Global Production and Supply Chains

As part of the important trends of the current development of the world economy,the reshaping of global industry and supply chains interacts with the intensified changes unprecedented in the past century in an increasingly close manner.“Benefit-sharing and risk-sharing”,the characteristics of global industry and supply chains,have a profound influence on the distribution of benefits among countries and the effectiveness of global economic governance.

The evolution analysis of agricultural global value chains

With the Uruguay Round bringing agricultural trade into multilateral regulation,the major countries have actively participated in agricultural global value chains(AGVC)and occupied an important position according to their comparative advantages.Utilizing bilateral agricultural trade data of 66 countries based on the OECD Inter-Country-Input-Output Tables(OECD ICIO)from 2010 to 2018,this study applies social network analysis indicators to measure each country’s eigenvector centrality within AGVC and to examine the current global agricultural trade patterns,with particular attention to the changes in the status of world powers within AGVC.The main findings are as follows:first,with the multilateral and regional trade liberalization,growing numbers of developing nations,including China and India,are engaging in international agricultural trade,which contributes to its diversification;second,as AGVC develops,the structure of global agricultural trade networks has become more decentralized and balanced.This is evidenced by the emergence of additional central nodes,and large nations like the United States,which formerly held the most central position as indicated by a drop in its centrality,are becoming less dominant.

Connected Advantage Interlinked supply chains are good for both China and the rest of the world

As both a beneficiary of global supply chain integration and a contributor to the creation of a new supply chain ecosystem,China is of immense importance to the growth of international supply chains.For example,it’s manufacturing industry is indispensable across every stage of the global supply chain from raw material to intermediate goods production and the assembly of finished products.And with a large consumer base,China has been the place where global goods and services are consumed.

Return to Reality:Speculative Design of Interaction Ritual Chains and Exploration of Alone Together

“Alone together”is an ever-changing“wicked problem.”In this research and practice,the author tries to combine experience design,referring to the theory of“interaction ritual chain theory,”and creatively add interactive experience to discursive works,so that the audience can think between the real and the virtual.

An Evaluation of the Critical Success Factors in Sustainable Food Supply Chains in Developing Countries

Food is one of the biggest industries in developed and underdeveloped countries. Supply chain sustainability is essential in established and emerging economies because of the rising acceptance of cost-based outsourcing and the growing technological, social, and environmental concerns. The food business faces serious sustainability and growth challenges in developing countries. A comprehensive analysis of the critical success factors (CSFs) influencing the performance outcome and the sustainable supply chain management (SSCM) process. A theoretical framework is established to explain how they are used to examine the organizational aspect of the food supply chain life cycle analysis. This study examined the CSFs and revealed the relationships between them using a methodology that included a review of literature, interpretative structural modeling (ISM), and cross-impact matrix multiplication applied in classification (MICMAC) tool analysis of soil liquefaction factors. The findings of this research demonstrate that the quality and safety of food are important factors and have a direct effect on other factors. To make sustainable food supply chain management more adequate, legislators, managers, and experts need to pay attention to this factor. In this work. It also shows that companies aiming to create a sustainable business model must make sustainability a fundamental tenet of their organization. Practitioners and managers may devise effective long-term plans for establishing a sustainable food supply chain utilizing the recommended methodology.

Multi-agent based modeling for order distribution cooperative negotiation in supply chains

With the new characteristics of global cooperation in supply chains being synthetically considered,a hybrid model to the cooperative negotiation process for the order distribution in supply chain is mainly studied.After reviewing and analyzing some main domestic and overseas processes in cooperative negotiation modeling in supply chain,some problems are subsequently pointed out.For example,the traditional simple multi-agent system(MAS)frameworks which have some limitations,are not suitable for solving modeling complex systems.To solve these problems,thinking with the aid of the multi-agent structure and complex system modeling,the manufacturing supply chain is taken as an example,and a time Petri net production model is adopted to decompose the materials.And then a cooperative negotiation model for the order distribution in supply chain is constructed based on combining multi-agent techniques with time Petri net modeling.The simulation results reveal that the above model helps solve the problems of cooperative negotiation in supply chains.

Ag^(+)、Zn^(2+)、Cr^(3+)改性Y型分子筛吸附脱除喹啉的模拟计算研究

首先考察了吸附时间对三种改性Y型分子筛AgY、ZnY、CrY吸附脱除模拟燃料中喹啉的影响,结果发现三种分子筛对喹啉的吸附容量和去除率大小顺序均为:AgY>CrY>ZnY.运用Materials Studio软件,采用巨正则蒙特卡洛(GCMC)和密度泛函理论(DFT)对改性Y型分子筛吸附喹啉机理进行了模拟计算研究,得出以下结论:模拟计算AgY、ZnY、CrY的比表面积和孔体积与其低温N2吸附-脱附表征结果基本一致,并且发现改性Y型分子筛的吸附脱氮能力与比表面积和孔体积关系不大;以Fukui函数为基础,采用Mulliken和Hirshfeld两种布局数分析方法模拟计算了三种改性Y型分子筛的相对亲电性并分析Lewis酸强弱,其Lewis酸大小顺序为:AgY>CrY>ZnY;对三种改性分子筛进行了前线轨道分析,其化学吸附活性大小为AgYCrY>ZnY,模拟计算所得各种结果与实验结果顺序完全一致.

Weighted Markov chains for forecasting and analysis in Incidence of infectious diseases in jiangsu Province,China

This paper first applies the sequential cluster method to set up the classification standard of infectious disease incidence state based on the fact that there are many uncertainty characteristics in the incidence course.Then the paper presents a weighted Markov chain,a method which is used to predict the future incidence state.This method assumes the standardized self-coefficients as weights based on the special characteristics of infectious disease incidence being a dependent stochastic variable.It also analyzes the characteristics of infectious diseases incidence via the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to make the long-term benefit of decision optimal.Our method is successfully validated using existing incidents data of infectious diseases in Jiangsu Province.In summation,this paper proposes ways to improve the accuracy of the weighted Markov chain,specifically in the field of infection epidemiology.

Model-driven full system dynamics estimation of PMSM-driven chain shell magazine

Based on the system dynamic model, a full system dynamics estimation method is proposed for a chain shell magazine driven by a permanent magnet synchronous motor(PMSM). An adaptive extended state observer(AESO) is proposed to estimate the unmeasured states and disturbance, in which the model parameters are adjusted in real time. Theoretical analysis shows that the estimation errors of the disturbances and unmeasured states converge exponentially to zero, and the parameter estimation error can be obtained from the extended state. Then, based on the extended state of the AESO, a novel parameter estimation law is designed. Due to the convergence of AESO, the novel parameter estimation law is insensitive to controllers and excitation signal. Under persistent excitation(PE) condition, the estimated parameters will converge to a compact set around the actual parameter value. Without PE signal, the estimated parameters will converge to zero for the extended state. Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the unmeasured states and disturbance of the chain shell magazine, and the estimated parameters will converge to the actual value without strictly continuous PE signals.

Intrusion detection based on system calls and homogeneous Markov chains

A novel method for detecting anomalous program behavior is presented, which is applicable to hostbased intrusion detection systems that monitor system call activities. The method constructs a homogeneous Markov chain model to characterize the normal behavior of a privileged program, and associates the states of the Markov chain with the unique system calls in the training data. At the detection stage, the probabilities that the Markov chain model supports the system call sequences generated by the program are computed. A low probability indicates an anomalous sequence that may result from intrusive activities. Then a decision rule based on the number of anomalous sequences in a locality frame is adopted to classify the program＇s behavior. The method gives attention to both computational efficiency and detection accuracy, and is especially suitable for on-line detection. It has been applied to practical host-based intrusion detection systems.

Mixed-solvothermal Synthesis, Crystal Structure and Luminescence of a New Dinuclear Yttrium(Ⅲ) Coordination Polymer with 1-D Wave-like Infinite Chains

A new dinuclear Y（3＋） coordination polymer{[Y2（H2O）2（C（14）H8O4）3（C（12）H8N2）2]·3 H2O}n （1, C（14）H8 O4 = 2,2＇-biphenyldicarboxylate, phen = 1,10-phenanthroline）, has been obtained by means of a mixed-solvothermal method using ethylene glycol and water as solvent. The compound was characterized by elemental analysis, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy（EDS）, IR spectrum and single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The results reveal that 1 belongs to monoclinic system, space group C2/c with a = 24.249（3）, b = 12.069（48）, c = 22.7304（08） A, β = 113.480（7）°, Z = 4, V = 6102（2） A3, Dc = 1.462 g·cm^-3, F（000） = 2728, μ = 1.968 mm（-1）, the final R = 0.0673, w R = 0.1508 and S = 1.085. Its structure can be regarded as a 1-D coordination polymer constructed by Y^3＋ cations, 2,2A-biphenyldicarboxylate, 1,10-phenanthroline and water molecules. The compound not only contains two kinds of organic ligands, but also exhibits interesting wave-like infinite chains and 18-MR windows with the diameter of 4.070（7）A × 5.326（9）A. The structure is further stabilized by means of O–H…O hydrogen bonds and π-π stacking interactions. Furthermore, the luminescent properties（including emission spectrum, CIE chromaticity coordinate and decay curve） of 1 were also investigated in the solid-state at room temperature.

Synthesis,Structure,and Luminescent and Dielectric Properties of Two Novel 1D Chains Based on a T-Shaped Tripodal Ligand 4-(4,5-Dicarboxy-1H-imidazol-2-yl)pyridine Loxide

Two 1D chain metal-organic framework complexes, {Co[（C10H5N3O5）- （H2O）2？H2O]}n （1） and {Cd[（C10H5N3O5）（H2O）2]}n （2）, based on a T-shaped tripodal ligand 4-（4,5-dicarboxy- 1H-imidazol-2-yl） pyridine 1-oxide （H3DCImPyO） have been reacted under hydrothermal conditions, and were characterized by single-crystal X-ray structure analysis, fluorescent analysis and thermal gravimetric analysis. According to single-crystal X-ray determination, complex 1 crystallizes in the monoclinic system, space group P21/n with a = 9.4930（13）, b = 13.2024（18）, c = 10.5203（14） A^°, β = 98.402（2）°, Z = 4, V = 1304.4（3）A^°3; and complex 2 crystallizes in the monoclinic system, space group C2/c with a = 13.557（3）, b = 13.568（3）, c = 6.7804（13） A^°, β = 105.095（2）°, Z = 4 and V = 1204.2（4） A^°3. Fluorescent analysis of complex 2 showed an intense emission band at 466 nm when the exciting radiation was set at 360 nm. Dielectric constants of complexes 1 and 2 were measured at different frequencies with temperature variation.

THE CONSTRUCTION OF MULTITYPE CANONICAL MARKOV BRANCHING CHAINS IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENTS

The investigation for branching processes has a long history by their strong physics background, but only a few authors have investigated the branching processes in random environments. First of all, the author introduces the concepts of the multitype canonical Markov branching chain in random environment （CMBCRE） and multitype Markov branching chain in random environment （MBCRE） and proved that CMBCRE must be MBCRE, and any MBCRE must be equivalent to another CMBCRE in distribution. The main results of this article are the construction of CMBCRE and some of its probability properties.

Tracking domestic ducks:A novel approach for documenting poultry market chains in the context of avian influenza transmission

Agro-ecological conditions associated with the spread and persistence of highly pathogenic avian inlfuenza （HPAI） are not well understood, but the trade of live poultry is suspected to be a major pathway. Although market chains of live bird trade have been studied through indirect means including interviews and questionnaires, direct methods have not been used to identify movements of individual poultry. To bridge the knowledge gap on quantitative movement and transportation of poultry, we introduced a novel approach for applying telemetry to document domestic duck movements from source farms at Poyang Lake, China. We deployed recently developed transmitters that record Global Positioning System （GPS） locations and send them through the Groupe Spécial Mobile （GSM） cellular telephone system. For the ifrst time, we were able to track individually marked ducks from 3 to 396 km from their origin to other farms, distribution facilities, or live bird markets. Our proof of concept test showed that the use of GPS-GSM transmitters may provide di-rect, quantitative information to document the movement of poultry and reveal their market chains. Our ifndings provide an initial indication of the complexity of source-market network connectivity and highlight the great potential for future telemetry studies in poultry network analyses.

Synthesis of a kind of geminal imidazolium ionic liquid with long aliphatic chains

A novel geminal imidazolium ionic liquid with long hydrocarbon group, 1,4-bis （3-tetradecylimidazolium- 1-yl） butane bromide was synthesized and an efficient synthesized method was introduced detailedly. Its structure was determined by FT-IR, ^1H NMR and elemental analysis.